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Adam Montana

Oil prices rise to $ 62.74 a barrel

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 Arab and international


Economy News _ Baghdad

Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of global supply shortages due to US sanctions on Venezuela and OPEC-led production cuts.

But disappointing US factory data pressured the market, which saw the rally of the US TTI and Brent rise to a 2019 high as concerns over the global economy continued.

Futures for West Texas Intermediate were $ 54.65 a barrel by 0810 GMT, up 6 cents to 0.16 percent. Crude hit a two-month high of $ 55.75 on Monday.

Brent crude for the year was $ 62.56 a barrel, up 5 cents, or 0.08 percent.

Analysts said US sanctions on Venezuela focused market attention on a drop in global supplies.

Experts said on Friday after examining the details published by the US Treasury Department on the sanctions imposed on Venezuela that it would significantly reduce oil transactions between Caracas and other countries and similar to those imposed on Iran last year.

OPEC oil production fell in January by the most in two years, according to a Reuters survey.


Number of Views 15   Date Added 05/02/2019

 
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OPEC Oil Production Fell In January Due To A Saudi Cut, Delays And Sanctions

Reuters  January 31, 2019

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OPEC's oil supply fell in January to a two-year high as Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, overtook its share of the cut-off deal while Iran, Libya and Venezuela saw involuntary declines, a Reuters survey found.

The survey showed on Thursday that the 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 30.98 million bpd this month, down 890,000 bpd from December, its biggest drop since the month of January 2017.

The survey indicates that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have gone beyond promised supply cuts to avert a new impasse this year. A formal agreement between OPEC and its allies to cut supply in 2019 began on January 1.

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Platts Survey: OPEC Production Drops To Lowest Since March 2015

Feb 06, 2019, 2:00 PM CST

OPEC logo

OPEC’s crude oil production plummeted by nearly 1 million bpd from December to 30.86 million bpd in January, marking the lowest production for the cartel since March 2015, as Saudi Arabia over-delivered and members exempted from the reduction pact saw their output further drop, according to the S&P Global Platts survey.

OPEC’s production fell by 970,000 bpd from December to January—the month in which the new production cuts took effect, with Libya, Venezuela, and Iran exempted. The monthly drop in the cartel’s crude output was the steepest since December 2016—the month just before the previous round of cuts began, the Platts survey of shipping data, industry officials, and analysts showed.

Saudi Arabia’s oil production in January stood at 10.21 million bpd, or 100,000 bpd below its pledged ceiling of 10.311 million bpd, and the lowest Saudi production since May 2018, according to the Platts survey.

The crude oil exports of OPEC’s largest producer and de facto leader fell by 500,000 bpd to 7.20 million bpd in January, Platts trade flow data showed.

Among the members exempted from the cuts, Libya’s production plunged by 120,000 bpd to 850,000 bpd as its largest oil field Sharara has been shut in since early December due to security risks and concerns. Iran, under U.S. sanctions, saw its production drop by another 80,000 bpd to 2.72 million bpd, while Venezuela’s output fell 10,000 bpd to 1.16 million bpd. Sources at PDVSA have told Platts that as of this month Venezuela’s production is expected to plunge because under the new U.S. sanctions, Venezuela will not be able to import U.S. naphtha to dilute its heavy crude grades. Related: Hedge Funds Drop Shorts On Crude Oil

 
The Platts survey showed a steeper decline in OPEC’s production than the Reuters survey from last week.

OPEC’s crude oil production in January dropped by a massive 890,000 bpd compared to December—the largest monthly declinein the cartel’s production since January 2017 when the initial production cut deal began, according to the monthly Reuters survey.

According to the survey tracking supply to the market and based on shipping data and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC’s crude oil production in January was 30.98 million bpd, down by 890,000 bpd from December 2018.

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) with production data for January is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, February 12.  

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Platts-Survey-OPEC-Production-Drops-To-Lowest-Since-March-2015.html

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 energy


Economy News / Follow-up ..

A US newspaper revealed an Iraqi rejection of a Saudi proposal to establish a new organization to manage oil.
The Wall Street Journal said Russia and Iraq had rejected a proposal to create a new alternative oil organization for OPEC. 
According to the report issued on Tuesday evening, the proposal of the new Petroleum Organization submitted by Riyadh to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak in December, but was rejected. 
According to the US Financial Times, OPEC officials said Novak that such a decision is outside his powers and that he will turn him to the Russian Foreign Minister and to the Office of the Presidency in the Kremlin. The proposal calls for transforming the current "loose cooperation" between OPEC and Russia into a "oil union" between two blocs, one led by Russia and the other by OPEC, which is dominated by Riyadh.
According to RT television reported on December 29, Russian Minister Novak said about the Saudi proposal "there will be no new oil organization," adding that it would risk creating more monopoly and bureaucracy and making decisions. 
Riyadh, which has been criticized by US President Donald Trump over the past year for rising oil prices, seeks to protect Russia from American anger and blame Moscow for rising prices. 
Moscow, on the other hand, is aware that the Saudi decision will remain close to Washington, so it will not win Riyadh, but wants to exploit it to achieve the Russian energy strategy by dominating the decision and directions of "OPEC", without the existence of legal obligations on its part, because Moscow avoids engaging in a conflict with the United States.
The proposed consortium, or so-called "new OPEC", will be built from two groups, the OPEC member group, and the group of Russian-led countries that include former oil-exporting states of the former Soviet republics and other countries under Moscow's cloak. 
Namely the 10 countries that cooperated with the Petroleum Organization in reducing production and allowing prices to rise after the painful collapse cycle. 
According to Wall Street, Iran and other members of the group also rejected the proposal because of concerns over Moscow's and Riyadh's dominance of oil policy.


The proposed oil consortium seeks to restore Riyadh's ability to steer oil prices amid rising US rock oil production, which in recent years has become the "weighted product" that determines oil market trends and prices. 
And the role of "weighted product", previously played by Riyadh and setting the price target for a barrel of oil. 
This new proposal is a relaxation of an earlier plan put forward by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to create a "completely new oil organization", of which Russia becomes a member, which has been floated by the Saudi government. 
In June, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, through Oil Minister Khalid al-Faleh, proposed a plan to create a completely new oil organization with new members.
According to the Wall Street Journal attributed to OPEC officials. However, the proposal put forward in Vienna raised the concern of some Member States, particularly Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Angola and Algeria. The former Iraqi oil minister Thamer Ghadhban has been outspoken criticism of the plan, where Faleh said at a meeting in Vienna that "OPEC was established in Baghdad" (in reference to the role of Iraq to establish). 
Riyadh, which faces a range of oil crises and still relies more than 80 percent on oil in budget revenues, seeks to raise oil prices and fight rock oil without bringing American anger to it. The only way is to try to persuade Moscow to play this role. The danger.
But Moscow, which has already suffered from dumping Saudi Arabia into oil markets and putting it in a political crisis that ended with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, is not prepared to play this role. According to the report, Riyadh will go to put the plan again at the meeting in Vienna on February 18. 
Riyadh has put its budget at $ 84 a barrel at a time when prices are around $ 60 a barrel. Riyadh, which accounts for more than 80 percent of its income, suffers from a huge deficit that will have to be heavily leveraged this year amid harsh conditions and conditions that will not be comfortable for it and its major companies such as Aramco and its sisters.
Oil fell 1 percent on Wednesday after the US crude inventories report showed signs of concern over the impact of US sanctions on Venezuela on global supply. Concerns about weak global economic growth and the China-US trade dispute continue to weigh on the morale of major oil traders. 
Oil fell on Tuesday after a survey showed business growth in the euro area almost stopped in January. London Brent crude <LCOc1> fell 62 cents to $ 61.36 a barrel, after rising 15 percent in January. US crude fell 48 cents to $ 53.18.


Views 118   Date Added 02/07/2019

 
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Friday, February 8th
 
 
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Iraq's 
Oil Ministry announced on Friday that Iraq is part of the OPEC production control committee, stressing that it will participate in the next Baku meeting "at a high level" in order to support oil prices. 

In response to a question on the composition of the OPEC production control committee, the ministry spokesman Assem Jihad said in a statement to the Russian news agency Sputnik that "Iraq has joined the monitoring committee, and Iraq certainly plays its role within this committee as one of the partners or producers. There will certainly be an upcoming meeting involving Iraq at a senior level, possibly the oil minister. "

 

 


He added that "Iraq seeks to make the success of the role of this committee and what will be reflected on developments in the world market and oil prices ... And therefore there will be an effective for Iraq along with the rest of the members." 

In response to a question on the participation of Baghdad in the next meeting, he explained that "Iraq will participate to support the work of this committee and to achieve its objectives in terms of control of production and oil market, this is reflected on the stability of the oil market and support the stability of oil." 

The Monitoring Committee will hold a meeting on 17-18 March in the capital Baku to discuss the implementation of commitments by the producing countries to reduce oil production and discuss the next policy in the oil market.

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The discovery of the largest 10 proven oil reserves in the world .. What is the location of Iraq

The discovery of the largest 10 proven oil reserves in the world .. What is the location of Iraq



 Twilight News    
 one hour ago

It owns five Arab countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Libya, about half of proven oil reserves in the world based on 2018 data contained in the report "GFP".

 
 

 
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Good morning 🌞 Yota ! And all of DV ! Now if they can raise the peg of the IQD to the Petro dollar,  like their surrounding neighbors....we might be on to something ! I don't know I'm still on my first cup of coffee. Y'all have a great day !

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580-5.jpgIraq joins the committee in OPEC .. This is its mission
 
 

The official spokesman of the Ministry of Oil, Assem Jihad, that Iraq is within the control of the production of "OPEC +", stressing Baghdad's participation in the meeting in Baku next "high-level" in order to support oil prices. 
Jihad said in a press statement today, in response to a question on the formation of the committee to control the production of "OPEC +": "Iraq joined the Monitoring Committee and certainly Iraq plays its role within this committee as one of the main partners or producers, and certainly there will be a forthcoming meeting involving Iraq on High level perhaps the oil minister. " 
He continued: "Iraq seeks to achieve the success of the role of this committee and what will be reflected on developments in the world market and oil prices ... And therefore there will be an effective for Iraq along with the rest of the members."
In response to a question on the participation of Baghdad in the next meeting, he explained that "Iraq will participate to support the work of this committee and to achieve its objectives in terms of control of production and oil market, this is reflected on the stability of the oil market and support the stability of oil." 
The Monitoring Committee will hold a meeting on 17-18 March in the capital Baku to discuss the implementation of commitments by the producing countries to reduce oil production and discuss the next policy in the oil market.

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OPEC faces a threat from the United States

11:41 - 08/02/2019

 
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BAGHDAD (Reuters) - 
A US House of Representatives committee on Thursday passed a bill that would make the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, vulnerable to antitrust litigation. 
The Commission approved the draft law, known as "Nopec". Copies of the project have appeared over the last 20 years in the House of Representatives, but have not been successful, and it is not known whether the House of Representatives in full will be voted soon. 
The "Nopec" bill gained some momentum as US President Donald Trump attacked OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, over its measures to cut output. 
If approved, the law would allow the prosecution of OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, under the pretext of collusion and monopolization, and restricting the production of oil or gas or setting prices would be illegal.
OPEC controls production of its members by setting a ceiling for production. Oil prices rose 82 percent after OPEC's decision to cut production in 2017 under the OPEC + agreement. US lawmakers are angered by the organization, saying it harms consumers and interferes with free markets. 
OPEC is a global organization of 15 oil-producing countries based in Vienna, whose members are working to increase revenues from the sale of oil on the global market by adopting a unified strategy, whose members control 40% of world production and 70% of the world's black gold reserves. / H

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11:11
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The time now is 11:59 AM
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Watch
 
 
Follow - up / Tomorrow 's Press: 

expressed the International Monetary Fund on Saturday, for lack of confidence in the future of oil prices, despite the modest growth. 

Fund managers Christine Lagarde, at an economic conference in the United Arab Emirates, said oil exporters had not fully recovered from the oil price shock of 2014, and the future was largely uncertain despite modest growth.

"Because of the decline in revenues, the fiscal deficit is only slowly falling despite important reforms on both sides of spending and income, including the introduction of VAT and production taxes," she said. 

"This has led to a significant increase in public debt from 13 percent of GDP in 2013 to 33 percent in 2018," Lagarde said. 

There is scope for improving financial frameworks in the Middle East, with some weaknesses stemming from "focus on short-term projects and insufficient credibility," she said.
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2019-01-09T200711Z_188289725_RC1B42B9EF3
 
 

A senior Trump management official said on Friday that the United States does not support behavior that distorts markets, including monopolies of producers.

The official was responding to a question on whether US President Donald Trump would support a draft law aimed at OPEC because of cuts in oil supplies.

A US House of Representatives judicial committee unanimously approved on Thursday a bill (not monopolies for the production and export of oil), known as the Nubek, but it is not certain that it will be put to a vote in the plenary.

The official's comments, made on condition of anonymity, are the latest in the Trump administration's comment on the bill.

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Iraqi participation in the next Baku meeting "high-level" in order to suppor t oil prices

08/02/2019 04:12 PM | Number of readings:

Iraqi participation in the next Baku meeting "high-level" in order to support oil prices

 


Iraqi participation in the next Baku meeting "high-level" in order to support oil prices
The Ministry of Oil said on Friday that Iraq is part of the OPEC production control committee, stressing the participation in the next Baku meeting "at a high level" to support oil prices. Spokesman for the Ministry Assem Jihad said in a press statement received " from him,  In response to a question on the formation of the Committee to control the production of "OPEC +", "Iraq joined the Monitoring Committee and certainly Iraq plays its role within this committee as one of the main partners or producers. "Iraq is seeking to make the role of this committee a success and it will reflect on developments in the world market and oil prices ... and thus there will be an effectiveness for Iraq along with the rest of the members." Asked about the participation of Iraq, "Iraq will participate to support the work of this committee and to achieve its objectives in terms of control of production and the oil market, this is reflected on the stability of the oil market and support the stability of oil."

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Barkindo: OPEC does not manipulate oil prices

02:37 - 11/02/2019

 
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Follow - up - the balance of News 
said Mohammed Barkindo Secretary - General of OPEC said the organization was not manipulating oil prices when asked on Monday for the adoption of the Commission on the US House bill targeting cuts OPEC oil supply. 
A House committee on Thursday approved a bill that would bring the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to court for monopolies, but it was not certain whether the council would be considered by the whole. 
"Our work is not to manipulate prices, so it is unfair to accuse us of that," Barkindo said on the sidelines of an energy conference in Cairo.

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Iraq ranks fourth globally in oil production

02:35 - 11/02/2019

 
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Baghdad - Mawazin News 
Iraq ranked fourth in the world oil production. According to a global interpretation. 
"Russia ranked first in production with 10.550 million barrels per day, followed by Saudi Arabia with a production of 10.460 million barrels per day, followed by the United States," said a report by the global rating agency GFP 2018. United States and the production of 8.853 million barrels per day. " 
The report pointed out that "Iraq ranked fourth in the world's largest crude oil producer with 4.452 million barrels per day, followed by Iran with a production rate of 4.068 million barrels per day." China ranked sixth with a production of 3.981 million barrels per day , Followed by Canada and Bantaj at 3.679 million barrels per day.
"The UAE ranked eighth in the world's highest crude oil production with a production of 3.106 million barrels per day, while Kuwait ranked ninth with a production of 2.924 million barrels," pointing out that "Brazil ranked tenth and produced 2.515 million barrels per day." / A.43

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Oil prices stabilized on Monday as growing US drilling activity and concerns over demand were fueled by slow progress in US-China trade talks, offsetting support from OPEC-led curbing efforts.

At 0945 GMT, the benchmark Brent crude was flat at $ 62.13 a barrel, up just 3 cents. US crude was down 27 cents at $ 52.45.

At 0945 GMT, the benchmark Brent crude was flat at $ 62.13 a barrel, up just 3 cents. US crude was down 27 cents at $ 52.45.

"Oil prices are still feeling their way," said energy consultancy JCP Energy in Vienna. On the one hand, there is an OPEC + production cut, which was compounded by growing problems surrounding the supply of oil.

"At the same time, it is inevitable that many economic data released in the past few days have not been very encouraging, and US-China trade talks do not appear to be advancing very quickly."

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WASHINGTON, DC, Feb. 8
02/08/2019
By Nick Snow 
OGJ Washington Editor
 
 

The US House of Representatives’ Judiciary Committee approved a fresh bill by voice vote on Feb. 7 to amend the Sherman Antitrust Act to make oil producing and exporting cartels illegal.

H.R. 948, which committee member Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) introduced on Feb. 4, reportedly gained traction following reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was considering formalizing its relationship with Russia and other non-OPEC producers and might discuss the matter when it meets with those countries’ representatives in Vienna on Apr. 18.

“OPEC is an international cartel whose members deliberately collude to limit crude oil production as a means of fixing prices, unfairly driving up the price of crude oil to satisfy the greed of oil producers,” Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) said in his opening statement at the bill’s markup.

“Such behavior, if done by private companies, would be illegal per se under US antitrust law. Because of a series of court decisions, however, our nation’s antitrust enforcers are unable to protect American consumers and businesses from the direct harm caused by OPEC’s blatantly anticompetitive conduct,” Nadler said.

Chabot’s bill addresses these decisions by expressly authorizing the US Department of Justice to pursue antitrust enforcement actions against OPEC members, should it choose to do so, and by ensuring that American courts have jurisdiction to hear such cases, Nadler said.

Other provisions

“The bill also creates an exemption under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act to allow litigation against foreign countries to the extent that they are engaged in price-fixing and other anticompetitive activities in violation of this new section,” Nadler said.

Finally, the measure would clarify that the “act of state” doctrine, which generally disfavors judicial review of certain actions by foreign governments, does not prevent courts from deciding antitrust cases brought against foreign governments under H.R. 948, Nadler said.

“NOPEC strikes an appropriate balance between allowing aggressive enforcement of US antitrust law against OPEC to keep oil prices in check and respecting the separation of powers, by deferring to the executive branch to determine whether litigation is appropriate, given any foreign policy or national security concerns, Nadler said.

Similar bills have been introduced in previous sessions of Congress. Nadler said he voted for one in 2007, and the House passed the bill “with overwhelming bipartisan support.”

Michael Cohen, an analyst at Barclays in New York, said that even if H.R. 948 does not become law, it would give the Trump administration substantial leverage if global crude prices start to rise.

“Overall, we believe that if such legislation moved forward, it would threaten the sustainability of the OPEC and OPEC+ grouping, add more volatility to the market, and make the perceived floor under prices even more fragile. However, while oil prices are low, the likely appetite to move this legislation forward remains low,” Nadler said.

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Highlights

  • Our estimates for global oil demand growth in 2018 and 2019 are unchanged at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. The impact of higher oil prices in 2018 is fading, which will help offset lower economic growth.
  • Non-OECD countries dominate oil demand growth in 2019, with the 875 kb/d seen last year accelerating to 1.15 mb/d. China and India provide 62% of the total. OECD growth will slow from 390 kb/d in 2018 to 280 kb/d in 2019. The US provides 82% of the OECD total.
  • Global oil supply fell by 950 kb/d in December, led by lower OPEC output ahead of new supply cuts. At 100.6 mb/d, supply was up 2.8 mb/d on a year ago. Following annual gains of a record 2.6 mb/d in 2018, non-OPEC production growth is set to slow to 1.6 mb/d in 2019.
  • OPEC crude oil output dropped by 590 kb/d in December, to 32.39 mb/d. Saudi Arabia cut back from record highs while Iran and Libya saw further losses. OPEC production is set to fall further in January, when new Vienna Agreement cuts take effect.
  • Global refining throughput is estimated to have reached a record high of 84.2 mb/d in December, causing refinery margins to fall, despite the slide in crude prices. The refining system will have to absorb 2.6 mb/d of new capacity this year, its largest annual increase since the 1970s.
  • OECD commercial stocks fell 2.5 mb month-on-month in November to 2 857 mb. They showed little volatility during 2018, moving within a narrow range of 60 mb and likely finishing the year 12 mb, or 0.4%, higher than at the end of 2017.
  • Benchmark crude oil futures prices fell to a 16-month low at the end of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019 they have gained over 10% and ICE Brent is currently close to $60/bbl. Well-supplied markets, particularly for gasoline and jet fuel, pressured crack spreads.

A marathon, not a sprint

Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.0119image2.png

The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.

Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran's production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran's major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world's biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world's number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.

For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.

In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation's marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.

Demand

Summary

Our estimates for oil demand growth in 2018 and 2019 remain unchanged, at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. October data were more or less in line with our expectations and our underlying price and economic growth assumptions are also essentially unchanged.


0119image3.png0119image4.png

Global oil demand growth accelerated slightly through the end of the year from 1.3 mb/d in 3Q18 to 1.4 mb/d in 4Q18, as the negative year-on-year (y-o-y) impact of prices disappeared. Within the OECD though, there were sharp differences between regions. In OECD Asia and OECD Europe, demand contracted in the second half of the year while in the same period the US posted strong growth, supported by ethane and gasoil. Total OECD demand is thought to have increased by 390 kb/d in 2018, and in 2019, the growth will slow to 280 kb/d. Non-OECD demand was stronger, with growth accelerating in 2H18. In non-OECD Asia, demand is believed to have increased by 1 m/d in 2H18. Total non-OECD demand is projected to have increased by 875 kb/d in 2018, and this year the pace will accelerate to 1.15 mb/d.


0119image5.png

For 2019, non-OECD Asia and OECD Americas will be the fastest growing regions. Our expectation for slightly faster global demand growth in 2019 is maintained even though economic growth is likely to be slower than in 2018. Oil prices exerted a strong negative impact on demand in 2018, when, for the year as a whole, they were 31% higher than in 2017. In contrast, based on the current futures curve, they could fall by 14% in 2019, which will provide some stimulus to demand.

Supply

Summary

A sharp fall in Saudi Arabia's output ahead of new OPEC/non-OPEC supply cuts, further unplanned outages in Iran and Libya and a seasonal drop in biofuels wiped 950 kb/d off global oil production in December. OPEC led the decline, with crude oil production tumbling 590 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to 32.39 mb/d. However, global oil supply of 100.6 mb/d was still 1.7 mb/d above May, when Vienna Agreement producers began to turn up the taps to satisfy world demand and the US announced it would renew sanctions on Iran. Moreover, compared with a year ago, total oil supply was up a whopping 2.8 mb/d. The US stood 2 mb/d above 2017, Saudi Arabia was up 680 kb/d and Russia, at record levels, was 465 kb/d higher. Plentiful supply from the world's top three producers during the past several months contributed to a substantial build-up in oil inventories in 2018 and led OPEC, Russia and nine other non-OPEC countries to agree to remove 1.2 mb/d from world markets as of January.


0119image36.png0119image37.png

They have their work cut out. To reach 100% compliance with pledged cuts of 800 kb/d, the 11 OPEC members party to the deal will actually have to decrease production by 900 kb/d in January. For their part, non-OPEC countries will have to cut 370 kb/d to reach full compliance. Any reductions by the Vienna Agreement countries will be supplemented by Canada, where the Albertan government imposed mandatory cuts of 325 kb/d from January. If the producers deliver on their promises, the market could return to balance in 1H19. The call on OPEC crude falls to 31.4 mb/d in 1Q19 and rises to 31.7 mb/d in 2Q19. OPEC and its allies are scheduled to meet on 17-18 April to review the Vienna Agreement that currently extends through June.


0119image38.png

With Saudi Arabia planning still deeper cuts in January and February and Russia expected to curb supply, the US looks set to maintain its status as the world's biggest crude supplier throughout 2019. Indeed, after posting growth in 2018 of nearly 1.6 mb/d, US crude production is poised for a gain of nearly 1.1 mb/d this year. In terms of total oil, staggering US growth of 2.1 mb/d in 2018, the highest ever recorded by any country, far offset unplanned declines in Venezuela - at 625 kb/d, one of its largest annual losses - Iran, Mexico, Angola and Norway. This year, total US oil supply is expected to expand by 1.3 mb/d and account for 81% of non-OPEC growth of 1.6 mb/d. In 2018, the US drove 84% of non-OPEC's growth of 2.6 mb/d.


0119image39.png

Refining

Summary

The global refining industry is facing a challenging 2019. This year will see the addition of 2.6 mb/d of new capacity, the largest annual increase in our records. While some of it may not start commercial operations until next year, it is also the case that some of 2018's new capacity is only ramping up now, intensifying competition between established refineries. What this means for refining margins, however, is not entirely clear. In 2018, the average Brent crude price was $16/bbl higher year-on-year (y-o-y), and margins in the three key regional hubs saw the gains from 2017 erased. The 1 mb/d of net capacity additions in 2018 was twice as large as in 2017, but throughput increased only by 0.7 mb/d as refining activity declined in Mexico and Latin America. While total oil demand growth slowed from 1.5 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d, the growth rate for refined products halved, to just 0.6 mb/d. 


0119image68.png0119image69.png

In 2019, total oil demand growth will accelerate slightly versus 2018, but more importantly, refined product demand growth sees a significant rebound to 1.1 mb/d. This is close to our forecast of 1.2 mb/d growth in refining activity. However, this utilises only half of the new capacity coming on stream. If refining margins are supported by accommodating crude prices, utilisation rates will not decline. This should mean that product stocks will increase, which could be useful ahead of the IMO 2020 implementation. If average crude prices continue moving higher for the third consecutive year, refining margins may decline to levels that force slowdown in some refining regions.


0119image70.png

Stocks

Summary

OECD commercial stocks declined 2.5 mb month-on-month (m-o-m) in November to 2 857 mb. Following revisions made to October figures, this marks the second consecutive monthly decline. Inventories are now 9 mb above the five-year average. In November, crude stocks continued to expand, reaching their highest level since May, despite significantly higher refinery runs across the OECD.

Higher light tight oil (LTO) production in the US and record high Canadian output have started to overwhelm refining capacity and are having a visible impact on stocks. In OECD Americas, crude stocks rose for the fifth straight month and are now well above the five-year average. By contrast, oil product stocks declined counter-seasonally, with sharp draws in middle distillates and LPG seen in the Americas linked to frigid temperatures. Product stocks also fell counter-seasonally in Europe.


0119image85.png0119image86.png

OECD commercial stocks showed little volatility during 2018, moving within a range of 2 816-2 876 mb throughout the year. In September-November, they moved by just 2 mb on average each month. Preliminary data for Europe, Japan and the US showed inventories increasing by 8.5 mb in December. If those figures are confirmed, it would mean that OECD stocks finish the year close to 2 866 mb, just 12 mb, or 0.4%, higher than at the end of 2017.


0119image87.png

OECD inventories were revised 12.2 mb lower in October, with downward adjustments made in the Americas and Europe. OECD stocks are now estimated to have fallen 9.1 mb, the first decline registered since June. For September, OECD stocks were revised up 2.7 mb.

Prices

Market overview

Oil prices fell month-on-month (m-o-m) in December, despite the parties to the Vienna Agreement announcing production cuts at the beginning of the month. However, benchmark crude futures have gained over 10% since the start of 2019 as output cuts from major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Canada took effect. Announced mandated output reductions in Canada caused Western Canadian Select (WCS) differentials to narrow to $16/bbl at end December. In Russia, where exports are set to drop in early 2019, Urals reached a five-year high against North Sea Dated. Well-supplied markets, particularly for gasoline and jet fuel, saw prices for refined products fall faster than crude at the end of 2018. Looking ahead into 2019, major additions to refinery capacity and higher Chinese export quotas for middle distillates may continue to pressure crack spreads.

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 Arab and international


Economy News _ Baghdad

Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid OPEC-led supply cuts and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, although some analysts expect rising US production and concerns about economic growth to curb crude markets. 
By 0751 GMT, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude futures was $ 52.69 a barrel, up 28 cents, or 0.5 percent, from the previous settlement. 
Traders said the continued closure of parts of the Keystone pipeline, which carries Canadian oil to the United States, also contributed to support for US crude. 
Brent crude for the week rose 38 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $ 61.89 a barrel. 
Some analysts said supply was on the market amid OPEC-led voluntary production cuts and US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran.
Some said, however, that the inherent risks on the supply side were not sufficiently focused. 
"We believe that oil does not take into account the risks inherent in the recent supply as the markets are currently focusing on the US-China trade talks, ignoring the risk of loss of Venezuelan barrels," JP Morgan said in a weekly note. . 
US crude oil production, which is usually light, has resulted in an abundance of gasoline production, Morgan Stanley said. US crude oil production increased by more than 2 million bpd last year to a record 11.9 million bpd.


Views 5   Date Added 02/12/2019

 
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Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih. "Internet"
  

 Arab and international


Economy News Baghdad

Saudi Arabia plans to produce about 9.8 million barrels per day of oil in March, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told the Financial Times.

Saudi Arabia's exports will fall to 6.9 million bpd in March, according to an article in the Financial Times on Tuesday.


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OPEC Secretary General: OPEC does not manipulate oil prices

OPEC Secretary General: OPEC does not manipulate oil prices
Mohamed Barkindo Secretary General of OPEC
 11 February 2019 08:25 PM

CAIRO (Reuters) - OPEC is not manipulating oil prices, OPEC Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo said on Monday.

The OPEC Secretary General's comment came in response to a question Monday evening on the approval of a US House of Representatives bill aimed at reducing the supply of OPEC oil, according to "Reuters . "

A House committee on Thursday approved a bill that would bring the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to court for monopolies, but it was not certain whether the council would be considered by the whole.

"Our work is not price manipulation, so it is unfair to accuse us of that," Barkindo said on the sidelines of Egypt's International Petroleum Conference and Exhibition.

Barkindo expected global oil demand to rise to 100 million bpd by 2020, "as the global economy continues to be strengthened .

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Russia: We are not in talks to form a partnership with OPEC

Russia: We are not in talks to form a partnership with OPEC
 

 12 February 2019 01:13 PM
Direct : The Kremlin announced on Tuesday that there are not currently in talks to form a partnership between Russia and OPEC.

Energy Minister Alexander Novak announced in December that OPEC and other oil producers were unlikely to create a common structure as a result of the additional routine this would create, as well as the risks of US sanctions against monopolies.

The Reuters news agency said yesterday that OPEC and its allies have drafted a document to establish a new alliance, but the document carefully avoided any mention of sensitive issues such as oil prices.

Last month, Russia and OPEC began cutting oil production by 1.2 million bpd.

OPEC's monthly production data is due to be released later this month.

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It doesn't matter what the oil prices do if Iraq continues to make deals in which a barrel of oil is sold well below the market price. The last deal they made was something like 14 USD per barrel under market price at that time. Not good if your economy's major export is oil. Their mindset pump it fast and pump it in huge amounts is going to get them into trouble. While they still make a good amount off the sale of oil, their profit margin is shrinking and their budget deficit is growing. They need better negotiators instead of hands in the till.

Edited by Theseus
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For those who think its only military contractors and oil this is a list of International companies in Iraq's Kurdistan. This list as of 2012 includes 2 telecom operators, 1 bank, and 7 diversified conglomerates.

Top Companies in Kurdistan

bg_bestrated.png AsiaCell
bg_bestrated.png Korek Telecom
bg_bestrated.png Salahaddin Holding
bg_bestrated.png Faruk Group 
bg_bestrated.png Nokan Group
bg_bestrated.png Zagros Group
bg_bestrated.png Kurdistan International Bank
bg_bestrated.png Empire World 
bg_bestrated.png Falcon Group
bg_bestrated.png Ster Group
bg_bestrated.png KAR Group
bg_bestrated.png Mass Group
bg_bestrated.png Zozik Group
bg_bestrated.png Darin Group
bg_bestrated.png Qaiwan Group
bg_bestrated.png Newroz Telecom

List of Top Companies in Iraqi Kurdistan with description and links

bg_bestrated.png AsiaCell
Over the last few years the unrelenting efforts of AsiaCell team have taken this wonderful company to heights that very few had imagined possible, When AsiaCell first started, it was known only as the first telecommunications venture in Iraq. Today, it is not only the first, but is also the largest and the most successful. AsiaCell is proud to be able to say that they are the only Iraqi company that is able to provide coverage to Iraqi in its entirety, catering to an impressive client base of over 9 million.

bg_bestrated.png Korek Telecom
Korek Telecom is the fastest growing mobile operator in Iraq. Korek Telecom is a shared limited company registered in Iraq to operate and provide GSM services. Korek started operating in Iraq in 2000, notably in the north of Iraq and it is the oldest Iraqi Telecom company. On August 17, 2007 Korek was awarded a nationwide mobile license and thus is now covering a total population of more than 32 million inhabitants.

bg_bestrated.png KAR Group
KAR Group is a full spectrum oil & gas sector services company working throughout Iraq providing expertise in project design, engineering and construction, plant design and installation, pipeline design, healt, safety and security services.

bg_bestrated.png Salahaddin Holding
One of the largest holdings in Iraq's Kurdistan. The holding invests in the following sectors: banking sector, investment sector, hotels, construction sector, oil and gas sector, manufacturing plants (BRC, Prefab, Steel, Cement) and oil and gas stations.

bg_bestrated.png Nokan Group
Nokan Group is a prominent group of companies for investment and industry in Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Nokan Group is present in many fields such as internal and external trading, large and small industry, engineering, airlines, tourism, oil, commercial agencies, products distribution, information technology, building construction, industry and agricultural products and so on:
Construction Companies under Nokan Group: Raz Company, Dargazen Company, Twzhala Company, Razga Company, Qubad Company, Shkofa Company, Reko Company, Chiya Company, Eron Company, Halabja Company.
Fuel Trade Companies (Distribution) under Nokan Group: BezhanPet Company, Kormor Company, Wza Company, Mahd Company, Zawi Petroluem Company, Bawan Company.
Security Companies under Nokan Group: Dahol Company. Car Trade Companies under Nokan Group: Carzone Company.
Other Companies under Nokan Group: Homa Company, Current Company, Kurdistan Company, Saykes Company, Danas Company, Nzar Company, Hezng Company, Duty Free Company, Gazco Company, Azmar Air.
Nokan Group has interests in North Bank, Nozad Jaff (North Bank), Karook Group, Roj City City Star, Kawan, Barez, Nalia, Chavi Gashtiary, Rawanduz, Group Hoshier Company, Meer Soma, Wali Ragi Company,  Saeeb City.

bg_bestrated.png Faruk Group
Faruk Group Holding has proudly become a recognized leader in twelve different sectors. As varied as these entities are, all ofthe companies collectively partner to create a solid infrastructure to rebuild Iraq.Every FGH company adheres to the same principles upon which FGH was originally founded in 2008 - integrity, reliabilityhumanity, democracy and excellence. The company is active in the following fields: 
Telecommunications: AsiaCell, KurdTel, Goran net
Industry: BCC and UCC, Azady Enterprices
Medical Services: Faruk Medical Center, IV Solutions
Contracting: Zarya, Plan
IT Services: IraqCom
Hospitality: Shary Jwan Hotel, Beranan Hotel
Real-Estate: Faruk Group Holding Building, Shary Goyzhe Apartment Complex, Beharan Residential Complex
Automotive: Niva

bg_bestrated.png Zagros Group
The Zagros Group is now made up of 12 different companies under the Zagros umbrella. These segments have developed a lot since the company began operating. Zagros Group today represents one of the three biggest companies in Kurdistan, with nearly 1,000 employees. The company is divided into following subsidiaries: Zagros General Contracting, Zagros Energy Group, Zagros Technology, Medical Care International, Zagros AMBS consultancy, Zagros Air, Laveen Air, Zagros Oil, Zagros General Trading.

bg_bestrated.png Kurdistan International Bank
Kurdistan International Bank (KIB) is the first bank in the Kurdistan Region and one of the biggest private banks in Iraq. Kurdistan International Bank was established by a group of prominent Iraqi businessmen including some of well-known bankers and financers with the participation of five major Iraqi private banks.
Assets: USD 522 million (2011).

bg_bestrated.pngNorth Bank
The largest private bank in Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan. 

bg_bestrated.png Empire World 
Since its establishment in 2007, Empire World has become a leader in the real estate sector in Erbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq due to its total dedication to excellence without compromise. Empire World has undertaken a Project that spans a land area of 750,000m2 and costs over USD 2.4 billion. With a completion date of 2017, Empire World is honored and proud to continue contributing to the grown of and development of the region.

bg_bestrated.png Ster Group
Ster Group was founded in Erbil and it has emerged as one of Iraq's fastest growing conglomerates. The group's core expertise includes construction, environmental engineering, consultancy, insurance, security, power, communication, general trading, tourism, information technology and research. Ster Group also actively invests in a wide-range of real estate projects. The group's subsidiaries include: Ster Company, StarKar Insurance Company, TarinNet, Ster Petroleum, Ster Security, Kani Water and SterLogic.

bg_bestrated.png Falcon Group
Falcon Group is a wholly owned and operated Iraqi Corporation. The group is multi-disciplined and includes: Falcon Security, Falcon Construction, Falcon Oil and Gas and Falcon Agriculture. As a professional multifaceted organization, Falcon Group is specifically focused on the reconstruction of Iraq and the maintenance of its critical infrastructure.

bg_bestrated.png Qaiwan Group
A diversified conglomerate based in Sulaymaniyah with activities in construction (Qaiwan Towers, Qaiwan City, Sulaymaniyah Heights), energy (Baziyan Refinery, Petrol Stations, Oil Trading), retail and hospitality (Rotana Hotel Sulaymaniyah, Qaiwan Hotel).

bg_bestrated.png UB holding
The holding's turnover was $1.2 billion in 2009 and it increased in 2010 to approximately $1.5 billion. UB Holding is involved in the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors. The holding currently represents one of the leading private sector companies in Iraq.

bg_bestrated.png Newroz Telecom
Allai Newroz Telecom is a private company which was founded in 2007 in Erbil city; the heart of the Kurdistan Region. Newroz Telecom became one of the first companies in Kurdistan region to provide various telecom services, voice and data. 
The continuous ambition and the wide vision of Allai Newroz Telecom has led Allai Newroz Telecom to acquire an enormous share from Ariafon Company, which was then a CDMA operator in Kurdistan area of Iraq with around 100,000 subscribers. Moreover, in 2011, Allai Newroz Telecom has succeeded to acquire a large share share from Neide Telecom, a telecom company specialized in whole sale and fiber optics networks. 
Turning its 6th year, Allai Newroz Telecom succeeded in proving itself in creating a solid competitive brand in the telecoms industry in Kurdistan area, and today Allai Newroz Telecom owns business and technical staff of around 450 employees, which makes it the largest company of its kind in Kurdistan. 

bg_bestrated.png Mass Group
Mass Group Holding Ltd (MGH) produces electrical energy, cement, steel, and fertilizers, along with other basic industrial products and services. The focus of Mass Group is predominantly on: Electricity generation: the current production capacity of their three build, operate, and own (BOO) power stations is 2,500 MW. The group wants to reach 3,500 MW through converting to combined cycle by the year 2014. Cement: the current annual production capacity is around 7.5 million tons, reaching 11.5 million tons by 2014. Steel and Iron: the current annual production capacity is 1.25 million tons and it is expected to be doubled soon. Urea: MGH has started constructing a urea project with an annual capacity of 1.38 million tons, one of the biggest of its kind in the industry.

bg_bestrated.png Zozik Group
Zozik group is present in the following sectors: agriculture, air & cargo, communication, construction, finance, health care, security & logistics, and transportation.

bg_bestrated.png Darin Group
Darin Group is an Iraqi holding group founded in 1998 and launched to support the three main industries, namely construction, internal project management and general trading. The group has been involved in major construction trading activities throughout Iraq for many years. Also, Darin Group has very diversified specialized business activities and it is serving the whole of Iraq. In a region where industrial development is crucial to economic prosperity, Darin Group has earned the confidence and respect of governmental departments and multinational organizations by achieving exceptional high standards of service. The group's factories include Erbil Steel Factory, Ice King Factory, Flour Factories, Darin Asphalt, Darin M2 Factory, Darin Block Factory, Darin Concrete, Batching, or Hollowcore Slabs Production Factory.

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