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Oil rises 1% on settlement amid fears of supply shortages


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I say, Let the Arabs, OPEC and the Russians sell all the oil they want to Europe, India  and Asia.

The USA should be / needs to be self reliant, there should be no need to import oil for OPEC.

There should be no need to be oil dependent and or held hostage to this group of ********'s

 

Semper Fi :salute:

GO RV :backflip:

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8 hours ago, dinardiggerisme said:

They forgot to give SE New Mexico their due.....a good bit of the Permian oil comes from the massive "Delaware Basin" in SENM.....they have been drilling the DB since the 1920's.....just starting to really get it tapped good now....

That is what I like about this group. We have people living everywhere and have study this area in detail. We are better informed than most of the news agencies. 

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3 hours ago, ChuckFinley said:

That is what I like about this group. We have people living everywhere and have study this area in detail. We are better informed than most of the news agencies. 

I agree,good Folk's..:peace:

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  • yota691 changed the title to Iraq expects oil to stabilize at $ 65 end of year
Editorial date: 2018/7/21 11:08 • 130 times read
Iraq expects oil to stabilize at $ 65 end of year
(Baghdad: Al-Furat News) Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi expected oil prices to fluctuate between 65 and 70 dollars a barrel until the fourth quarter of 2018.
"A meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) committee will be held in Algiers on September 1 to monitor the production of the oil countries," he said in a press statement. "There will be an OPEC conference in Vienna next November." 
He pointed out that "these two meetings of OPEC in Algeria and Vienna may witness the offer of some countries to increase supply in the oil market from the 800 thousand barrels currently approved by the Organization, noting that this proposal is still under study by OPEC." 
Al-Allaibi pointed out that the oil market is currently based on stability factors and good fundamentals, noting that what matters to Iraq is the stability of the market and not subjected to shocks, as happened before the period of increasing inventory and lack of demand as it affected the economy of Iraq in a negative way.
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  • yota691 changed the title to Fitch expects improved budgets for oil exporters in the Middle East this year
Fitch expects improved budgets for oil exporters in the Middle East this year
 

 

 
 

Date Posted       22/07/2018 12:39 PM

 

%D9%88%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9
Fitch Ratings said that the Gulf countries enjoy higher financial returns due to the rise in world oil prices.

The report said that sudden oil surges could be offset by an increase in spending in some countries, which could lead to public finances being exposed if oil prices fell again and to test the sustainability of Gulf reforms.

Fitch also predicted that Saudi Arabia would achieve a modest deficit of less than 3 percent in its budget this year and that Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar would achieve a financial surplus of three to six percent, 10 percent and about 2 percent respectively. By about six and a half and a five percent and a seven-point interval because of their impact on the slow pace of reform and lower prices.

 
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Oil prices rose to $ 73.12 a barrel amid concerns about oversupply

01:34 - 24/07/2018

 
image
 
 

Follow - up - News balance 
varied oil prices on Tuesday, with Brent crude recovered from the losses suffered earlier at a time when traders split in the market fears of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and the signs that point to oversupply. 
Brent crude <LCOc1> rose 6 cents to $ 73.12 a barrel by 0706 GMT, after falling 1 cent on Monday. 
WTI fell 3 cents to $ 67.86 a barrel, reversing earlier losses. The contract fell 37 cents the previous day. 
In Monday's session, the market rose after US President Donald Trump warned of dire consequences for Iran if the United States threatened.
Tehran is under increasing pressure from the United States, while Trump is urging countries to halt all imports of Iranian oil from November. 
Iran is the third largest producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and pumps 3.75 million barrels per day. 
Saudi Arabia and top producers are increasing supplies to offset the impact of losses likely to come as the US deadline approaches before sanctions are imposed on Tehran in November. 
Meanwhile, traders said US crude stocks at the delivery center in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased in four days to Friday, according to information company Genscape. 
On a weekly basis, stocks were expected to fall in the center for the 10th week in a row, traders said

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The Regulation That Could Push Oil To $200

 

By Nick Cunningham - Jul 24, 2018, 6:00 PM CDT Fuel oil storage

Oil prices could spike as high as $200 per barrel over the next 18 months, which would cause an “economic crash of horrible proportions,” according to a new report.

A research paper from economist and oil market watcher Philip K. Verleger predicts there could be a shortage of low-sulfur diesel fuel in 2020 as a result of regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) aimed at cutting sulfur emissions. The regulations, due to take effect at the start of 2020, lowers the allowed concentration of sulfur in maritime fuels from 3.5 percent to just 0.5 percent.

Those rules have already sparked a scramble for low-sulfur options. But the current global refining capacity may not be able to churn out enough low-sulfur fuels to allow a smooth transition from high-sulfur fuels by the world’s shipping fleet.

The shipping industry accounts for about 5 percent of total global oil demand, and most ships burn heavy fuel oil that is high in sulfur. Switching over 5 percent of total demand to low-sulfur diesel and gasoil – a distillate similar to diesel – is a massive shift.

Ship-owners will have a few options: install expensive scrubbers to remove sulfur, switch to low-sulfur fuels such as diesel or gasoil, or switch over to LNG. Scrubbers and LNG are generally thought to be the most expensive options, requiring capital outlays to overhaul entire fleets.

That will put the onus on low-sulfur fuels. But the problem is that not all crude oil is the same – heavier and sour varieties hold more sulfur and are unable to produce lower sulfur diesel without extra processing. And not all refineries are equipped to handle that processing.

Up until now, the maritime industry has been burning the residual fuel oil left over after the refining process. Fuel oil is the bottom of the barrel – it’s the cheapest, most viscous and dirtiest part of the barrel

By 2020, diesel production will need to rise by at least seven percent, according to Philip K. Verleger, on top of the three percent increase needed for road transport and other uses. All of it will need to be low-sulfur. “It is not clear that the greater volumes can be produced,” Verleger wrote in his paper. “Instead…very large price hikes may be required to suppress non-maritime use.”

 

On top of that, the banishment of fuel oil from the maritime sector will lead to a crash in high-sulfur fuel oil prices. Power plants onshore that burn oil might switch over to high-sulfur fuels because of the steep crash in prices. “Ironically, the maritime fuel switch may do nothing to improve the global commons given that the pollution sources can just be moved from the high seas to land,” Verleger concludes.

But the big problem will be the shortage of diesel and gasoil because “as many as half of world refineries cannot produce fuel that meets the new regulation.”

He predicts a rerun of the historic price spike in 2007-2008, which was in part the result of a shortage of low-sulfur oils. Refiners found themselves in a bidding war for low-sulfur oil, pushing oil prices to well over $100 per barrel. “This situation will reoccur in 2020,” Verleger wrote, except that the price spike could be even more dramatic because “the fuel shift is greater and the refining industry is less prepared.

Verleger does not mince words. As the rules take effect in 2020, oil prices will spike to $160 per barrel or higher. “Economic activity will slow and, in some places, grind to a halt. Food costs will climb as farmers, unable to pay for fuel, reduce plantings. Deliveries of goods and materials to factories and stores will slow or stop,” he argues. “Vehicle sales will plummet, especially those of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles (SUVs). One or more major U.S. automakers will face bankruptcy, even closure. Housing foreclosures will surge in the United States, Europe, and other parts of the world. Millions will join the ranks of the unemployed as they did in 2008.”

However, a report from Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy from earlier this year disputes this conclusion. Shippers switching over to low-sulfur fuels puts “the burden of innovation onto the refining industry,” the report says, “but it will likely prove a lesser challenge for refiners than is commonly understood.” That is because the fuels will be “fuel hybrids, the production of which will entail as much blending as actual refining.” Ultimately, the report concludes, “speculation about a product supply crunch underestimates the industry’s flexibility,” and ignores the potential for a reconfiguration of demand and the emergence of new types of blended fuel hybrids.

There is quite a lot of space between those two conclusions. We have 18 months before we find out which is more accurate.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Regulation-That-Could-Push-Oil-To-200.html

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  • yota691 changed the title to Saudi exports halt oil prices
 
14:53
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Follow - up / Tomorrow 's Press: 

news agency "Reuters" news agency , on Thursday, rising oil prices on the back of Saudi Arabia suspended all shipments of crude passing through the Strait of Bab el - Mandeb strategic Red Sea, because of the Houthi attack on oil tankers Two Saudi.

Brent crude drove oil prices higher today, extending gains for a third day after Saudi Arabia suspended shipments of crude through the Red Sea's strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait and showed US oil inventories fell to a three-and-a-half year low, the agency said. 

In the early morning hours, Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $ 74.35 a barrel after rising 0.7 percent on Wednesday. 

"For the West Texas Intermediate, the US Intermediate Futures contract continued to rise by 5 cents to reach 69.35 dollars a barrel, more than 1% in the previous session. 

Saudi Arabia has announced a "temporary suspension" of all shipments of oil passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after the attack by the Houthi group allied with Iran on two large oil tankers.
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Kuwait is considering stopping the passage of oil tankers across the Bab al-Mandab Strait

Kuwait is considering stopping the passage of oil tankers across the Bab al-Mandab Strait
One of the oil tankers
 
 
 
 26 July 2018 12:48 PM

KUWAIT: Kuwait is considering stopping the passage of oil tankers across the Bab al-Mandab Strait, an official source said.

"The possibilities are in place, but there is nothing definite yet," the chairman of the Kuwaiti oil tanker company told Reuters in response to a question.

He also stressed that "there must be an alternative and everything must be considered and then we decide."

Saudi Arabia's minister of energy, industry and mineral wealth, Khalid bin Abdul Aziz al-Falih, said that the Kingdom would suspend all shipments of crude oil through the Bab al-Mandab Strait until the navigation through the Strait of Bab al-Mandab becomes secure, both immediately and temporarily, because of the Houthi attack on two Saudi oil carriers.

The decision came after two giant oil tankers belonging to the Saudi national shipping company, each carrying two million barrels of crude oil, were attacked by al-Houthi terrorist organizations in the Red Sea on Wednesday, Al-Falih said, After crossing the Strait of Bab al-Mandab.

The minister said that the attack resulted in a minor injury in one of the two carriers, and there were no injuries or spillage of crude oil in the sea, indicating that the damaged tanker is being pulled to the nearest Saudi port.

The Saudi Energy Minister stressed that the threats of the Huthi terrorist organizations against the crude oil tankers affect the freedom of international trade and maritime navigation in Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea.

The Yemeni Legal support Alliance said yesterday that a Saudi oil tanker had been subjected to an attempted Houthi Iranian terrorist attack in the Red Sea.

Related Products News 

https://www.mubasher.info/news/3319295/الكويت-تدرس-وقف-مرور-ناقلات-النفط-عبر-مضيق-باب-المندب

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Analyst: prejudice to the Strait of Hormuz may jump at the price of oil for $ 200

Analyst: prejudice to the Strait of Hormuz may jump at the price of oil for $ 200
 
 
 
 23 July 2018 09:22 PM

Direct: warned US analyst that an armed conflict between the United States and Iran could threaten to close the occurrence of the largest fjord to the export of oil in the world , raising the price of crude to a record level of up to $ 200 a barrel.

John Clydev, the co-founder of the Agin Capital fund, told CNBC on Monday that the price of Brent crude is on its way to $ 90, with the fact that the US administration is unlikely to grant Significant exemptions from sanctions against Iran.

US officials have announced the possibility of granting exemptions to some countries in stopping any imports of Iranian oil by September.

"A supply disruption or a military operation in the Strait of Hormuz makes prices out of all expectations," he said. "Maybe we get $ 150 or $ 200 a barrel because we're at a stage where there is a huge deficit in the global market."

US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to confront his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rowhani, by facing sanctions that only happened to a few countries in history if he threatened the United States again.

Trump's comments came in the wake of a letter by Rohani that the war with his country would be "the mother of all wars."

Tehran threatened once again on Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world's largest seaport for oil exports, if Washington carries out its threats to prevent Iranian oil exports by September.

By 5:03 pm GMT, the benchmark Brent crude for September delivery fell 0.5 percent to $ 72.70 a barrel, after hitting $

74.50 earlier in the session.

https://www.mubasher.info/news/3317601/محلل-المساس-بمضيق-هرمز-قد-يقفز-بسعر-النفط-لـ200-دولار

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On ‎7‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 7:44 PM, Pitcher said:

You can’t get an HCL in Texas but you can sure learn to trade the Texas Permian Basin Drillers.  There is a lot of money to be made by learning to become a Technical trader.  Buy and hold is fine if you have 40 years to grin through the ups and downs of the market.  I’ve learned you can beat the heck out of traditional returns if you are willing to learn and do the work. 

Mr. Vaughn,

I smile every time I see your avatar.

I've always had an interest in your vocation but the lack of time has hindered my education.

After all, there are only 28 hours in the day...

Perhaps at the Post RV gathering we can chat and commence the education.

I know I can make you talk as I'm in charge of the rum...

Thanks for your input and keep the good new coming.

Good day, Sir.

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On Wednesday, a drone fired by Iran-allied Houthi Militias attacked the Saudi state oil company Aramco’s refinery in the capital Riyadh. Also, the Shiite militias attacked two Saudi oil tankers, prompting Saudi Arabia to declare Thursday it would halt all shipments of crude oil passing through the Straits of al-Mandeb until navigation becomes safe.

According to experts, the attack can't be dealt with in isolation from the recent Iranian threats to disrupt regional oil shipments if its own exports were blocked by United States sanctions.

 

In May, Mr. Trump announced his country's withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and last month the United States said it would impose sanctions on all exporters of Iranian oil. 

With the withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Washington resumed tough sanctions on Iran. The country’s economy was already in trouble, with its currency, the rial, dropping sharply in value against the dollar and a record amount of capital being taken out of the country last year.

Responding to the US sanctions, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani threatened that "if Iran's oil is not exported, no regional country's oil will be exported."

The al-Mandeb Strait is an important route for European refined oil products to reach global markets. Iranian officials also threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz which handles around 20 percent of the world's oil trade.

On July 21, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei supported Rouhani's threats. 
Recently, rhetoric between Rouhani and Mr. Trump has escalated dramatically, with Rouhani saying that the US should understand “that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars."

 

IRGC Commander Major General Mohamad al-Jafari also announced that the Strait of Hormuz either is for everyone or it is not for anyone. "The enemies must understand that the Strait of Hormuz is either for everyone or not for anyone," he said.

On his part, President Trump threatened Iran would face dire consequences for its threats against the US. 

In an all-caps message on Twitter, Trump warned Rouhani that his country would face “CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED” if threats against the US continued.

 

Mr. Trump’s warning to Iran came hours after a speech by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that was harshly critical of Iran’s leadership. Mr. Pompeo accused Iran’s leadership of widespread corruption at the expense of its citizens’ welfare.

The leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force stepped out of the shadows on Thursday to deliver a fiery speech against Donald Trump, warning the US president that if a war broke out Iran would “destroy all that you possess.

“You will start this war but we will be the ones to impose its end. Therefore you have to be careful about insulting the Iranian people and the president of our Republic.

 

http://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/story/29952/Iran-threatens-int-l-navigation-in-Red-Sea-US-punishment-imminent

 

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JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia has suspended oil shipments through Bab Al-Mandab Strait after Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked two oil tankers, Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Wednesday.
“All oil shipments passing through Bab Al-Mandab Strait have been suspended temporarily until navigation through the area is secure,” Al-Falih said in a statement released through the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) and state TV Al-Ekhbariyah.
Al-Falih and Saudi Aramco confirmed in statements that two giant oil tankers belonging to the Saudi National Shipping Company, each carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil, were attacked by Houthi terrorists in the Red Sea Wednesday morning after crossing Bab al-Mandab. 
“One of the ships sustained minimal damage. No injuries nor oil spill have been reported,” Aramco said.
The oil giant said the decision to suspend shipments was “in the interest of the safety of ships and their crews and to avoid the risk of oil spill.”
Earlier, the pro-Houthi Al-Masirah television said that the rebels had targeted a Saudi warship named Al-Dammam, without providing further details.
But the Arab Coalition supporting the legitimate government of Yemen President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi said crude oil tankers were attacked.
Col. Turki Al-Maliki, spokesman of the coalition, said the Houthis “had almost caused an environmental disaster.” 

bab_al_mandab.jpg


The coalition has repeatedly raised alarm that Houthi rebels threaten vessels in the Red Sea — a key shipping route for world trade — through their control of the strategic Hodeida port.
The Bab Al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, links the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean.
“This terrorist attack is a dangerous threat to the freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea,” said  Colonel Al-Malik.
“Port of Hodeida is still the starting point of terrorist attacks,” he said.
Pro-government forces backed up by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia have paused their offensive on Hodeida port in a bid they say to give UN-led peace efforts a chance.
The United Arab Emirates, whose forces in the coalition have been spearheading the Hodeida assault, has warned that troops could “liberate” the port city if those efforts fail.
Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen in 2015 at the head of a military coalition backing the country’s government after Houthi rebels ousted it from the capital Sanaa the previous year.
Meanwhile, the UN special envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths arrived Wednesday in the capital, Sanaa to meet with rebel leaders amid efforts to restart peace talks after a two-year hiatus.
Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed Obaid bin Daghr said Sunday the rebels should release all detainees and captives held in their prisons ahead of peace talks. He said the Houthis should also hand over their arms and withdraw from all rebel-held areas including Sanaa, which they seized in September 2014.
Last month, Griffiths announced plans to bring Yemen’s warring parties to the negotiating table. He held several meetings with both sides since.
Yemen’s three-year stalemated war has damaged Yemen’s infrastructure, crippled the health system and pushed it to the brink of famine.
The impoverished country is also now in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with more than 22.2 million people in need of assistance. Malnutrition, cholera and other diseases have killed or sickened thousands of civilians over the years.


http://www.arabnews.com/node/1345626/saudi-arabia

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It’s real simple for Iran.  Stop exporting proxy wars, stop threatening All the countries in the ME with annihilation, stop building nuclear bombs, and try to stop meddling in Iraq.  Iran has been threatening the US and everyone in the ME since the Mooooola’s took over in 1979.  Their people are unhappy and they need to go.  I hope they try to close the Straits of Hormuz. It will be their last action as rulers of Iran

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11 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

It’s real simple for Iran.  Stop exporting proxy wars, stop threatening All the countries in the ME with annihilation, stop building nuclear bombs, and try to stop meddling in Iraq.  Iran has been threatening the US and everyone in the ME since the Mooooola’s took over in 1979.  Their people are unhappy and they need to go.  I hope they try to close the Straits of Hormuz. It will be their last action as rulers of Iran

The BLUF... they don’t have the “heart” for a stand up fight! They will sh-t themselves, drop their weapons and surrender (as did the 🇮🇶 Army during Desert Shield/Storm) at the first sight of the American (Soldier, Sailor, Airman, Marine, Coast Guard) Warrior!!!🇺🇸

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7 minutes ago, CSM (R) Thackrey said:

The BLUF... they don’t have the “heart” for a stand up fight! They will sh-t themselves, drop their weapons and surrender (as did the 🇮🇶 Army during Desert Shield/Storm) at the first sight of the American (Soldier, Sailor, Airman, Marine, Coast Guard) Warrior!!!🇺🇸

Remember a bunch of Colonialists that didn't have very many weapons stood up against the world's most powerful superpower at the time and defeated them, with a little help. This was done not meeting them on the battlefield but through guerilla warfare. They declared independence and formed the US of A. With might and strength comes major issues to support troops. Never underestimate a weaker opponent.

Edited by Theseus
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  • yota691 changed the title to Oil rises 1% on settlement amid fears of supply shortages
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