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Monetary Policy Harvest (2016-2019)


yota691
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5 hours ago, Laid Back said:

I hope we see an RV at the beginning of  January 2019.

 

If we don't see and increase of the dinar exchange rate by the beginning of 2019 our next window of opportunity is at the end of IMF- SBA mid 2019.

 

 If nothing happens by the end of the IMF- SBA in mid 2019, our next window of opportunity is by the end of CBI strategic plan in 2020.

 

Still some work to do.

 

- restructuring the banking system 

- a complete seated GOI

- important laws

- investment 

- diversification of the economy

 

 

Enjoy the ride and Go RV sooner than later.

 

Go RV

Go $1:1

Go 2019

The nice thing about that list is once one falls the others could go pretty quick.  

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2 hours ago, NoviceInvestor said:

January 1st 2019 May come and go like all past “windows of opportunity”.. I am not holding my breath with excitement nor anticipation, however I hope I am not still waiting for January 1st 2020 as mentioned above ..

Agree completely. Staying grounded as well. I can wait but I wonder if Iraq can continue on like they are for another year.

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2 hours ago, Rugbylaird19 said:

Agree completely. Staying grounded as well. I can wait but I wonder if Iraq can continue on like they are for another year.

I too wonder how much longer they can continue also, but I stay grounded and focused remembering one thing. And that is that Iraq works in their time line not ours 🙂 and that they like the rest of us are just lab rats on a treadmill. 

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
No .. To marginalize the private sector in the budget of the Iraqi people
 
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Samir Nusairi

Economic and banking consultant

The general budget for 2019 is the balance of the Iraqi people patient and bear the suffering of terrorism and poverty and economic instability and assumed when prepared by the government and allocation of allocations as investment and operational expenses is to serve the Iraqi people and maintain the movement of economic and social life of society and create development and stability and reduce unemployment and poverty and achieve growth calculated in Macroeconomics and define a new approach to involve the private sector in the management of the economic process and economic decision-making through institutional partnership, structure and legislation, according to the government curriculum of the government of Dr. Adel Abdul The Mahdi must therefore not be subject 
The budget of the people for the political and reconciliations of political blocs and interests between the political blocs in parliament and beyond the partisan interests narrow and that the parliament is actually the voice of the people and defender of constitutional rights and be a true representative of the private sector and that the government institutions are not allowed to steal his national role in diversifying and developing sources of revenue to the budget through his contribution In the financing and implementation of infrastructure and strategic projects, in particular the housing and reconstruction projects for the liberated cities. The House of Representatives to discuss the budget quickly and make his remarks and amendments and transfers and ratification by a date not exceeding the month of December Second because any delay in this would harm the national economy and harm the interests of the Iraqi people. And impede giving the required role of the private sector as stated in Article 25 of the Budget Law, which marginalized the private sector and confirms that the budget prepared by the ministries of government did not read the government curriculum and did not comply with Article 25 of the Constitution and still believes that the management of the economy must be government and not to participate in the private sector in a fundamental way But allows him to participate marginally and here requires the House of Representatives to focus in its discussions on the activation of new and effective programs to diversify the sources of revenue and stimulate the agricultural sector and the industrial sector and the tourism sector and give a key role to engage the private sector in economic decision-making and Of the development and reconstruction of cities and liberated government support for private banks and encourage them to provide bank financing for small and medium-sized projects and strategy (infrastructure projects)
Because all the problems of Iraq's political and security lies in the economy without comprehensive economic reform and root and the involvement of the private sector planning and funding and implementation and follow-up can not be built Iraq and  
Iraq's sons, but his sons is sufficient marginalization of experts and intellectuals and promising young people and national entrepreneurs capable of leadership and construction and create a better future.


Views 51   Date Added 16/01/2019

 
 
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  • yota691 changed the title to No .. To marginalize the private sector in the budget of the Iraqi people
The Central Bank of Iraq and the objectives of monetary policy
 
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Samir Nusairi
  

 Articles
* Samir Nusairi

Monetary policy has been and continues to be a vital issue in the country's economic life. It is a reflection of the general performance of the state and its seriousness in avoiding difficulties and emerging dilemmas and making them consistent with the goals set.  
Before 2003, monetary policy was an extension of the government's self-deception. Hence the need for radical reform of the Central Bank and the new law of the bank was issued in 2004 and its amendments in 2017, which affirmed independence and established its primary role in protecting the country's resources. 
That the task now is to comply with international banking and accounting standards and face money laundering and attempts to finance terrorism, which stand at the forefront of the challenges facing the Central Bank of Iraq. It is also essential to ensure the safety of monetary operations through the sale of currency is essential in the performance of the Central Bank and the installation of principles and rules of dealing in the project in a healthy atmosphere of control and supervision.
The preservation of the independence of the bank and enable it to perform its task without government intervention and make it an effective institution and guarantor of the interests of society as a whole. 
The sale of the currency needs a deep understanding in light of the large accusations against the bank without evidence to prove the existence of suspicions of corruption or money laundering or smuggling of currency. The proposition that the sale of the currency is a waste of public money is a description of the economic illiteracy of the relationship and that there are many countries exercise this process, one of the main functions of the central banks in the world. 
The Central Bank of Iraq exercises multi-dimensional functions. It is concerned with financial stability, managing the system of national payments, management of foreign reserves, licensing and monitoring of banks and financial institutions, and setting up preventive controls, in addition to other tasks related to issuing cash and publishing data, indicators and economic forecasts.
A central task of the central bank is to manage monetary policy, which aims to control inflation, stimulate the economy, make full use of the balance of payments and achieve monetary stability.  
The achievement of the objectives of monetary policy depends mainly on the independence of the central bank. The independence here is the ability of the central bank to control and control the size of the monetary mass (as a fundamental element of monetary policy). Although the rules of central banks in most countries of the world, but this independence In real and practical terms subject to other influences and challenges, to varying degrees affecting that independence.
Therefore, it is noted that the Central Bank was able during the years 2015-2018 to achieve the objectives of monetary policy at a good level, despite the challenges faced by the most prominent deficit in non-oil revenue and deficit in public budgets and deficit in the balance of payments and dealing with cash and the rise of cash in circulation to the limit of 48 trillion dinars And 77% of them outside the banking system and the lack of fiscal policy of the government and its expenditures are specific to the expansion of money supply and poor coordination between the financial and monetary policies and the weakness of the banking sector and the weak role of some monetary policy tools and their effects on the increase and decrease Monetary bloc and an average interest rate of the legal reserve and other important challenges is the decline in domestic investment and increased foreign savings due to the security, political and economic conditions.
We can say that the Central Bank of Iraq exceeded most of the challenges by drawing up economic, scientific, technical, structural and structural policies and procedures that contributed to achieving its objectives in stabilizing the exchange rate, reducing inflation, rebuilding adequate foreign reserves and increasing the percentage of financial coverage and thus working in a team spirit to lead the national economy and achieve monetary and financial stability. Economic stability.

 


* Economic and banking consultant

 

Views 39   Date Added 01/20/2019

http://economy-news.net/content.php?id=15137

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  • yota691 changed the title to The Central Bank of Iraq and the objectives of monetary policy
10 hours ago, Mary B said:

cash in circulation to the limit of 48 trillion dinars And 77% of them outside the banking system

 

Interesting note here.

 

"Cash in circulation to the limit of 48 trillion dinars AND 77% of them OUTSIDE the banking system"

 

Well, OK, I repeated the statement for EMPHASIS ONLY!!!

 

This COULD me there are 48 trillion VALID Bicraqi Iraqi Dinars TOTAL in print NOW!!!

 

77% of which are OUTSIDE the Banking System - of the Bicraqi Iraqi I surmise.

 

So, 48 x 0.77 = 36.96 Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar OUTSIDE the Bicraqi Iraqi circulation OR 11.04 Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar INSIDE the Bicraqi Iraqi circulation.

 

For round numbers here, the weekday CBI daily currency auctions are nominally 200 million USD per auction. With 20 auctions per month, this is 4 billion USD OR, nominally, 5.95 trillion Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar per month.

 

So, there is CURRENTLY nominally 2 months worth of Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar in, I surmise,. Bicraqi Iraqi circulation.

 

I suspect the majority of the physical Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar are LEGITIMATELY OUTSIDE Iraq AND held by foreign governments AND foreign citizens LEGALLY.

 

If EVERY man, woman, AND child in Iraq (nominally 38 million total) had nominally 2 months worth of the average wage earner, say, 8,000/year or say 670/month, then:

 

2 x 670 x 1,190 x 38 million = 60.6 trillion Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar in CHUNKAE' MONAE' held by the Bicraqi Iraqi Citizen on average.

 

The numbers DO NOT add up.

 

Conversely,

 

36.96 trillion Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar / 38,000,000 Bicraqi Iraqis = 972,632 Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar per Bicraqi Iraqi Citizen or, nominally, a 817.33 USD equivalent that is a little over a month for the nominal average income of a Bicraqi Iraqi Citizen.

 

These last two scenarios ASSUME NO Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar are OUTSIDE of Iraq. I suspect, I could be WRONG here, the TOTAL Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar in print INSIDE AND OUTSIDE Iraq is 48 Trillion Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar.

 

Obviously the average income varies widely in Iraq whereas some CHUNKAE' MONAE" is held in significant quantities by SOME Bicraqi Iraqi.

 

However, I suspect (I could be WRONG here) the CHUNKAE' MONAE' issue is in the rear view mirror AND will have a small to insignificant impact NOW if AND when the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar ReInstates.

 

I suspect that when the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar DOES ReInstate, there may be BABY provisions to add additional restrictions AND/OR scrutiny to large quanty deposits or utilization (for purchases) of Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar AFTER ReInstatement

 

So, THIS is Good News to me!!!

 

In The Mean Time............................................................

 

The "Standard Dislaimer" Applies!!!!!!!!!!!!.......................

 

AND (of course)...............................................................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY, READY WHEN YOU ARE BROTHER (OR SISTER) - LET 'ER BUCK!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

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10 hours ago, new york kevin said:

Is this a good thread to ask if the CBI & GOI want to bring i. The ghost depositors (the ones keeping their money in the mattress) as a important sign of financial stability. Is the CBI insuring the bank deposits of all Iraqi citizens yet ?

 

Good Points, New York Kevin, AND The Very Best Of Your Week To You!!! :tiphat:

 

To Your two points, in my opinion from my recollection without links to articles:

  • The CBI has stated in the past the intention to reduce the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar note count in Iraq to 1/3 of the total Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar notes issued for circulation by the CBI. A couple ways to do this are to remove the damaged notes and destroy them via the CBI, issue electronic dinar via salaries and provide Point Of Sale card capabilities vs. physical notes, suck in the physical notes for exchange of USD for International purchase of imports via the weekday CBI daily currency auction, etc. If I understand correctly, the goal for the physical note count in Bicraqi Iraqi circulation to include the CHUNKAE' MONAE' but excluding the physical Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar LEGALLY outside Iraq by Foreign Governments AND Foreign Citizens HAS BEEN met. What competes with this is the issuing of salaries in physical Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar notes so Good News to see more and more salaries and pensions paid via the appropriate electronic card. I suspect the electronic card requires a bank account. Providing the capability for Bicraqi Iraqi Citizens to deposit THEIR Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar in the banks ALSO reduces the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar note count in circulation IN Iraq.
  • If I recall correctly, there was a legislated and implemented mechanism set up to guarantee the bank deposits of Bicraqi Iraqi Citizens with, I surmise, certain qualifications on the Bicraqi Iraqi Citizen's part and for the Bicraqi Iraqi Banks. This was in the news articles within the last 1 - 2 years if I recall correctly. Also, the training for the banks as well as audits discovering non compliance for certain banks is Good News, not only for the Bicraqi Iraqi Citizens, but for us, too, since the audits and required rectification of non compliance reflects supportability of insurability maintaining the ability to insure deposits of the Bicraqi Iraqi Citizens.

 

Well, OK, just from my recollection here. Others may be able to support or show my error(s) here. I am not sure how to keyword search the articles whereas someone(s) may know right off the top of their heads. For THAT, of course, I would be grateful to support what I noted or to show my error(s).

 

In The Mean Time............................................................................................................................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY, READY WHEN YOU ARE BROTHER (OR SISTER) - LET 'ER BUCK!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

Edited by Synopsis
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Good Morning Synopsis ! I always appreciate your post ! To support the depreciation of the note count . I remember years ago, Articles and even one with a picture of incinerators being installed in the basement of Iraq's banks . There were even some articles of banks with fires in them. They did say the  note count was to be reduced . Its difficult to refrain from any since of excitement at this time . The CBI ,The US Embassy and the Economist have been busy at this time . Having meetings with companies like Ernest and Young and Price Waterhouse Coopers . Lifting concrete barriers surrounding their buildings and lastly . Moving cargos of mysterious shipments from the CBI in the middle of the night http://www.skypressiq.net/2019/1/20/رصد-تحركات-غريبة-داخل-البنك-المركزي-العراقي...As well as mysterious  movements of tonnage of shipments from the American Embassy in the greenzone to other American Embassies around the world and sophisticated well guarded warehouses . Quite a lot taking place right now . Lets see what the rest of January brings .....

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article above .......http://www.skypressiq.net/2019/1/20/رصد-تحركات-غريبة-داخل-البنك-المركزي-العراقي........

Monitor the movements of "strange" within the "Central Bank" of Iraq!

The security scene Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 13:24 pm (2635 views)

Baghdad / Sky Press

Witnesses, monitored strange movements, within the Central Bank of Iraq, for two consecutive days.

Witnesses said that the bank witnessed the entry of cars carrying, at night, without knowing the type of cargo being taken out of it, pointing out that the process lasted two consecutive days.  

The Central Bank of Iraq, located in the capital Baghdad on Al-Rashid Street, was founded in 1947 and was formerly known as the Iraqi National Bank.

 
 
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Well there Synopsis, a very informative answer to my question. I believe your recollections. It would be simple logic for the sake of the CBI/GOI to insure the deposits, reduce the physical note counts, and to promote trust of the IQD (physical or virtual) by Iraq's citizens by insuring the deposits. A few more steps in the right direction. :)

Edited by new york kevin
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1 hour ago, blueskyline said:

article above .......http://www.skypressiq.net/2019/1/20/رصد-تحركات-غريبة-داخل-البنك-المركزي-العراقي........

Monitor the movements of "strange" within the "Central Bank" of Iraq!

The security scene Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 13:24 pm (2635 views)

Baghdad / Sky Press

Witnesses, monitored strange movements, within the Central Bank of Iraq, for two consecutive days.

Witnesses said that the bank witnessed the entry of cars carrying, at night, without knowing the type of cargo being taken out of it, pointing out that the process lasted two consecutive days.  

The Central Bank of Iraq, located in the capital Baghdad on Al-Rashid Street, was founded in 1947 and was formerly known as the Iraqi National Bank.

 
 

L.D.s :eyebrows::pirateship::bagofmoney:

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1 hour ago, blueskyline said:

Good Morning Synopsis ! I always appreciate your post ! To support system" rel="">support the depreciation of the note count . 

 

Many Thanks for the Great Information, BlueSkyLine, AND The Very Best If Your Week To You!!! :tiphat:

 

1 hour ago, new york kevin said:

Well there Synopsis, a very informative answer to my question. I believe your recollections. 

 

Thank You, New York Kevin, AND All The Best!!! :tiphat:

 

Go Moola Nova!

:pirateship:

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  • yota691 changed the title to Monetary Policy Harvest (2016-2019)

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