Enorreste Post: My Two Cents - 7/19/2010 from TheGetTeam

[Trimark]

My Two Cents Worth as of 7/19/2010

posted by Enorreste on The Get Team

Another week has passed and a lot of information has come to light since I did my “Vortex called Iraq” analysis last week. Therefore I thought it might be appropriate if I attempted to ties a few strings together regarding the events of the past week.

Almost all of the comments I am going to make stem from information found on our forums. In a few cases, however, I will refer to some information that I have received but for which I am not yet at liberty to give a source.

The crisis in forming a government is now coming to a head. Leaders of the various factions have been meeting during the last week and up until today as well. Proposals have been made and former enemies are meeting together on foreign soils in an attempt to get this government finally formed.

We will start with Maliki. He has met with members of Al-Sadr’s Iraqi National Alliance (INA) and seems to have made some minor inroads into the coalition that Allawi has been trying to build with the same group.

As recently as a couple of days ago Al-Sadr was quoted as saying that if it came down to Allawi, Mahdi, or Maliki, he would side with Maliki. This is the same cleric who said that there was no way that he would support Maliki every week for the last 4 months. Why would he change his position so late in the game?

The answer is that Maliki promised to release prisoners of Al-Sadr’s military force. Even more to the point he said that Al-Sadr’s forces could exist outside the city limits of Baghdad. This is a major concession on the part of Maliki, and it appeared that it would work.

However, Allawi in the meantime made arrangements to have a meeting in Damascus with Al-Sadr as well. At first the meeting was cancelled, for reasons unknown, but eventually it was held. After the meeting both Allawi and Al-Sadr made statements. The important words in both of their statements were that the talks were “positive and fruitful”.

In that meeting Allawi has made a specific proposal. It included having himself as the Prime Minister, Talabani as the President, and Mahdi as the Speaker of Parliament. While Al-Sadr did not end up endorsing Allawi as Prime Minister in their joint press conference today, he did say that the talks were “positive and fruitful”. To me this is an indication that the two are within arm’s reach of each other and that a compromise leading to the final formation of the government is now in the offing.

Allawi is then very close. He has his own coalition, the Iraqiya List. He has the Kurdish Alliance on board as well. If he is finally able to get the Iraqi National Alliance, Al-Sadr’s group, then this is a “done deal” and he will have formed his super majority.

Of particular importance is that this group will have been formed without Maliki having a say in the negotiations. If Maliki is offered anything at all, it will be table scraps, IMO. I suspect that he will be offered something in the final agreement so that Allawi can appear truly to have formed a “unified” government. Incidentally, Maliki is on record having stated that he had no problem with Allawi becoming Prime Minister, as long as everything was done constitutionally. Furthermore, he said, if this was shown to be the case, he would cooperate fully with the new government. Therefore I suspect he will be thrown a bone, such as one of the presidential slots.

As recently as last week these cards were in exactly the reverse order.

At the same time, from outside the country, we see the forces coming into the Vortex called Iraq. Hillarious Clinton is currently in Afghanistan and is supposed to arrive in Iraq tomorrow, Tuesday. I sincerely doubt that this is just “coincidental” and that she will come to “crown” the achievement of Iraq finally forming its new government core.

At the same time Joe Biden was on television on ABC today and made some interesting statements about Iraq. In particular he used the phrase “transitional government” in reference to Iraq. Therefore we know that from the American perspective, at least, Maliki is no longer serving as the Prime Minister but is just a caretaker in an interim capacity. This is a significant reduction in power, even though none of the players have left the scene. It is a “not so subtle” statement to Maliki to get ready and start packing his bags, IMO.

Next we received information last night that the border dispute between Kuwait and Iraq has been finally resolved. This means that one more piece of the UN issues has been removed. As I stated earlier, moving the DFI funds out from under Chapter 7 was part of this. Now getting the Kuwait/Iraq issue largely resolved is the second part. The third part, weapons of mass destruction, is not an issue at all. Therefore is Iraq and Kuwait can resolve the money and body issues privately there is no reason that Chapter 7 should not be released now.

I received information from a person in Iraq this afternoon in which he said that he was just told that Chapter 7 has in fact been released. We are attempting to confirm this at this time. If it is true, then we are definitely seeing the forces in the Vortex called Iraq pulling his all together for a very positive outcome for us all.

I noted today also that the Arab League of nations in the Middle East has announced that they will hold their next summit in Baghdad. This is interesting indeed, given the security issues in the country. Do you think that maybe they know something that we do not, yet?

So what may we reasonably expect over the near term?

I believe that the new government shell will be announced and that Hillarious Clinton will be present for that announcement. The announcement will take place between now and Thursday, IMO. Allawi will be named Prime Minister, Talabani the President of the Republic, Mahdi as Speaker of the Parliament, and Maliki as a president in some other capacity. A unified new government involving all of the factions will become a reality.

At the same time we will hear the announcement that the UN has removed Iraq from the burdens of Chapter 7.

I also believe that we will see that the audit of the CBI will be said to be completed and that the banks will be allowed to re-open. This means that the IMF will also be satisfied that this is coming together nicely. If there are funds that have disappeared this will be handled more quietly by the new government, IMO.

Finally, within only a day or two after that I expect to see the announcement of the new rate for the IQD. This will happen of necessity because on the 27th GE will begin shipping the materials for the new electric generators. They were quite specific that they wanted to be paid in dinars at the new higher rate. The Iraqi government gave them the assurance that they would receive their payment by the due date of July 26. This is a Monday, so the RV will have to happen either on Sunday the 25th or on the prior Thursday the 22nd. That is only a few days from today.

I hope that this helps the members.

Steve

[LittleMissGrits]

It helped me ... now would you hurry up and get the RV done!!! lol

[Freedom Fighter]

Looks like things are coming together. Go Rv !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[adlon]

That was a very good post. No rambling. Just facts interspersed with opinion drawn from the facts, which I can respect. Thank you.

[captspiffy]

Thank you Steve.

I believe your timetable may be very close to correct.

A tip of the hat to you my friend.

[Trimark]

Here's an update that Steve added to the post above:

The Arab League has added its name to those who are insisting now that the new Iraqi government be formed as quickly as possible. The pressure is mounting on the VORTEX called Iraq to "git 'er done!"

This means that we have the UN, the IMF, the US, all of the other countries who forgave Iraq's debt, France, and now the Arab League all badgering the Iraqi leadership to get the new government formed as soon as possible. It is because of this enormous pressure (and the fact that Hillarious will be arriving tomorrow - LOL!) that I am confident that the compromise new government will be announced within the next 24 to 72 hours.

[Traconesu02]

Thanks for the post Trimark

[mrref]

Thanks for the post. This post actuallly makes sense good job GO RV

[dizzyd]

Great post, now where does GE say they want to be paid in the new highly valued dinar?

[army03]

great read

[JKET955]

Thanks trimark for the post and the update and to you Steve for the great information.

[kittycat]

Thanks for in post. A good read with reasonable assumtions.

[Bobbydee]

Excellent read. Actually makes sense let's just hope it pans out. It's 11am there right now as I post so maybe by the morning I won't have to go to work. Go Hillarious getr done. Thanks Trimark for the post. Thanks E for your insight. God Bless Semper Fi

[lost one]

I sure hope so. ... Just the same, Thank you for all your insight and need to find the facts not rumor.

[lgraham]

Thanks Trimark for the post. You know the thing about E that troubles me, is when he makes statements and presents them as facts. For example; he states that Hillarious is going to Iraq on Tuesday because she is in Afghanistan now. When in fact she went to South Korea and the DMZ. Maybe she will go to Iraq later, I don't know. Then he states that the border dispute with Kuwait has been settled. Well.... have you seen the thread started by Drox.

Clearly this is not resolved! Now with what he has in this post he states that Allawi will be the PM. But 2 days ago he posted that he has intel That Maliki is going to retain the PM and that Allawi will be P.O.R. Here it is;

Adding My Two Cents Worth

As this process finally comes to a close, I hope, I'd like to offer my "revised" opinion as to what may be happening.

According to a friend of mine who speaks Arabic fluently and watches Al Jazeera TV, it appears that Maliki and Allawi have come to an agreement. Maliki will remain as PM while Allawi will become President of the Republic. However, in exchange for accepting this position Allawi will be granted extra powers in his position as President, including being the head of the military. Therefore the government will be "shared" in a very real sense.It also appears that the Kurdish Alliance is now going to join into the new government as well, having announced that they are willing to work with the newly formed National Alliance that was formed last Thursday from the State of Law and INA factions.

Allawi had attempted to present a case to the Supreme Court giving evidence why his Iraqiya group should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The meeting with Maliki may have stalled that process, however, since a new agreement appears to have been made.

Similarly, we had read that the new NA (National Alliance) was going to offer 3 candidates for the PM position (Maliki, Mahdi, and Jafaari) as recently as 2 days ago. This appears to have gone by the wayside as well.

It turns out that Maliki is a very good politician, presumably. He quietly did an "end run" around Allawi's forces. With power comes the ability to offer positions of power. I suspect that Allawi's group has been given some key ministerial positions in trade for his acquiescence.

The most important thing, for the country and for our investment, is that an agreement has been made prior to the first session of parliament. If this is in fact the case, then the first session will be more of a "rubber stamp" of approval of decisions that have already been made. This is great for us since it means that there will NOT be a crisis or a delay in forming the new government.

This will also make the UN and the US happy, since it appears that democracy is taking hold in the country.

Therefore we should also see progress on the UN removing Iraq from Chapter VII at their meeting on the 15th.

In short, we are seeing, IMO, the last few pieces coming together to enable the RV to take place.

The first act of the new parliament should be to approve the delayed 2010 budget. Within that budget, according to TerryK, we have the new rate for the IQD, $3.22. Therefore, with the passing of the budget we should also see the approval of the new exchange rate.

I'm cautiously hopeful that we are nearly home free. However, this is Iraq, and we know that anything can happen, and if it is a delay it usually DOES happen. So let's keep our powder dry and wait patiently for the next couple of days. We've come this far; we can sit and watch a little longer.

Let us just hope that democracy will win out, a unified slate will be selected, the budget passed, and the RV announced, all in the next couple of days or so.

Steve

I never mind the analysis that he tries to do. He does present it in an easy to read format where everything seems logical. But, he is drawing conclusions that cannot be supported with facts.

Two weeks ago he proclaimed that Obama stated he was going to pay off the U.S. federal debt in 3 years. What was actually stated was that he would reduce the annual deficet by 50% in 3 years.

He appears to be a decent guy giving his best effort that he shares with anyone that chooses to pay attention. For that, I appreciate all his effort. But I think he has made some poor judgements with his partnership with T.K. and Gankans

Thanks again for bringing it here Trimark

Lgraham

[ronscarpa]

Thanks again for bringing it here Trimark

Lgraham[/color]

Thank you Lgraham for your insight and revelatory comments - they are excellent and appreciated (+). I do respect and admire E, but you bring up several excellent points for consideration and observation....!

Be blessed my friend,

RON

[Trimark]

I agree with you lgraham and your points are very well taken. I think E is a decent guy who does his best but sometimes the conclusions he draws aren't always accurate. Having said that I give him props for at least making an effort at analysis, which is sometimes quite good. He doesn't bat 1000 but I always read what he has to say. So many of the gurus out there seem to just spout 'intel' or 'secret sources' that have no basis at all in reality or common sense. I also agree that he would be taken more seriously if he weren't so closely associated with TK. An odd pairing to say the least.

[powerpager]

Yes , Jump On Out There !!!

[shennosy]

Sometimes we just read what we want to get out of it. And we are wanting an RV. I even have to sit back and take a breather and unscramble my brain after reading the forum at times. I think everyone wants to see a positive out look on this,But lets keep sane mines of ourselves and relax, Go RV