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I ran into this again... it kinda restored my faith in the dinar. I only check in on things once in a while bc it had started to reduce the quality of my life. I guess I was always waiting for my new life to start when my existing life is not so bad!
I will probably never sell my dinar so rereading Scooters opinion helps me continue the waiting game...whatever the results are. Go RV!
Thursday, January 5, 2012
An Interview with Scooter
I was recently fortunate enough to be granted a couple of hours with one of the most prominent and prolific dinar researchers out there. He's been around for a couple of years and he goes by the name of Scooter. As he points out in the interview he has never been paid for his research and doesn't sell anything. He started sharing his research in an effort to combat the misinformation and "intel" that was misleading people about the dinar, often with disastrous results.
Sam I Am: I appreciate you taking the time to chat with me today.
Scooter: Oh, you're very welcome
Scooter: thank you for having me
Sam I Am: Can you tell the readers a bit about your background?
Scooter: I was Born in Southern California.
Scooter: The family then moved to the great northwest at an early age.
Scooter: Northeastern Washington is a beautiful place to grow up. It was a small town 80 miles north of Spokane in the northern rockies.
Scooter: It was particularly interesting being the wild and crazy kid that I was and
your father was the Varsity football, wrestling, and Golf coach.
Scooter: After high school, I moved to Phoenix and Went to College
Scooter: Got my four year degree in 2.5 years
Scooter: I knew if I didn't go blasting right through
Scooter: I would never get it -- they called me PRIMATE back then - don't ask...
Scooter: Started my first professional position in software design
Scooter: moved to Chicago and got recruited by a very large organization
Scooter: to manage their software development teams throughout North America
Scooter: It was at that time that I did two things that changed my life
Scooter: Started playing the FOREX market
Scooter: became a partner in a small startup software company
Scooter: The FOREX venture started out bad --- at least the first week
Scooter: we'll get to that in just a second
Scooter: but the software venture exploded worldwide
Scooter: The package was sold in 90 countries and 13 languages
Scooter: big hit!
Sam I Am: impressive
Scooter: We sold the business in 2001 but I was still playing FOREX.
Scooter: again -- wait for that story because it gets good
Scooter: Nevertheless, sold the software company and moved back to Phoenix
Scooter: Chicago has incredible culture and people but the weather really stinks!
Scooter: back to the FOREX
Scooter: I started FOREX in 2000
Scooter: maybe 2001
Scooter: anyhow, I went into the game and purchased Forex Made EZ. Essentially, the product was
supposed to do it all and provide indicators as to when you buy and sell.
Scooter: In essence, I didn't have to think.
Scooter: So, as a result the first week, being the impatient man that I am
Scooter: I got DRILLED !!! I lost about 10k that first week
Sam I Am: ouch
Scooter: My better half lynched me !!!
Scooter: but I loved this market
Scooter: it was like nothing I've ever experienced
Scooter: As a result, I had to go to classes before I could ever start trading live again.
Scooter: somewhat funny -- but I learned a very hard lesson that I still practice today
Scooter: Never chase the market
Scooter: always let the market come to you!
Scooter: My instructor pretty much told me my problem wasn't that I made the wrong decision
Scooter: it was more of a patience problem from being a MAN
Scooter: anyhow -- I loved this market and ever since i've been active on and off for the past decade
Scooter: At this time, I currently live in Phoenix and just acquired another software company and it's on the precipice of exploding
Scooter: so, I'm pretty excited
Scooter: I purchased my first DiNAR in 2005
Scooter: and my last batch in 2006
Scooter: I was on a plane traveling from Phoenix to San Diego
Scooter: and saw a full page spread in USA Today
Scooter: and bought immediately after exiting the aircraft
Scooter: I thought it would be a 8 - 10 year play
Scooter: and thought it would open around $0.35
Scooter: That was one long sentence
Sam I Am: that's okay
Sam I Am: How did you get started on the dinar forums?
Scooter: The forums ---
Scooter: Let's see, I think I joined one of the major forums in late 2009
Scooter: I met a couple of folks and went to chat in hopes to learn a bit more about this investment.
Scooter: At that time, I was hot and heavy in playing FOREX. I was glued to analsys and research to learn about what's happening in the marketspace
Scooter: I mainly was playing the majors -- rarely the exotics
Scooter: but I quickly found out that the leaders in these forums
Scooter: were stating information that was completely inaccurate but I stayed quietly on the sidelines
Sam I Am: What do you think about the information available on the forums?
Scooter: Since that time, the information and research has improved 100%
Scooter: but I still think the community suffers from some basic problems
Scooter: too much of the information is based on "INTEL"
Scooter: and not on factual data coming from the organizations that do this type of work everyday
Scooter: Just my opinion
Scooter: at that time in early 2010
Scooter: the information was being spewed out there and I knew for a fact that it was completely off base
Scooter: and I also witnessed innocent people getting hurt
Scooter: hurt badly too
Scooter: They were overleveraging themselves to the point of losing their homes and looking at this investment as a lottery ticket
Scooter: As a result, I engaged myself and started the massive reading binge
Scooter: Started posting the information and the response was
Scooter: well, it overwhelmed me and I was honored by everyone's appreciation
Sam I Am: So Scooter research began as a way of keeping people grounded and getting them to go by factual information?
Scooter: Haaah! Yes.
Scooter: I suppose so
Scooter: I started doing organized chats
Scooter: at several sites
Scooter: not the kind where I came in and chatted with friends
Scooter: but a thought out written chat
Scooter: at that point, Scooter Research was "Branded" and had it's own identity
Sam I Am: I see
Sam I Am: Let's talk a little about the investment
Scooter: one second
Scooter: one last item
Sam I Am: okay
Scooter: NEVER in this venture have I received any fiduciary rewards or money or anything.
Scooter: I always felt if I did receive cash, my credibility would be severely diminished.
Scooter: I now have a blog
Scooter: and now get some minor $$$$
Scooter: from the ads -- but it's nominal at best
Sam I Am: if it's like my blog it's very minor
Scooter: I can buy my wife dinner a couple times a month
Scooter: But I enjoy having it and it's my center where I post all my material
Scooter: it's a hobby I guess
Sam I Am: the URL?
Scooter: I'm allowed to do that
Sam I Am: sure
Scooter: Nevertheless, it's fun and I enjoy the research
Scooter: it's just fun to me
Scooter: I like the emerging market space and I think it's important today more than ever
Scooter: particularly when we look at the current worldwide financial picture
Scooter: I firmly believe that natural resources from sovereign nations
Scooter: will be the next currency of the 21st century
Scooter: at least, it will have a huge impact on the strength of the currency
Scooter: I'm now researching over 42 Emerging Markets right now
Scooter: learned a lot
Sam I Am: I'm sure
Sam I Am: now?
Scooter: now, your question
Sam I Am: What do you think the current money supply is in Iraq?
Scooter: Well, once again, I look at the facts
Scooter: and I take that one step farther
Scooter: for example, when the CBI post there bi weekly financial indicators
Scooter: I like to verify this data with other organizations
Scooter: Because data and statistics can be made to look many ways
Scooter: depending on the audience
Scooter: and in Iraq's case -- a double verification is always a good practice
Scooter: when taking a look at those numbers -- I try to verify with the IMF database or World Bank Database, etc..
Scooter: does that make sense
Scooter: I hope so
Scooter: just a practice I try and do
Sam I Am: yes
Scooter: so back to circulation amount
Scooter: and in Iraq, outside of banks right ?
Sam I Am: ok
Scooter: As of December's report ---
Scooter: the November's number are clearly showing 26.866 Trillion IQD outside of banks
Scooter: shows m1 to be 57.997 Trillion
Scooter: M2 67.160 Trillion
Scooter: with that said
Scooter: there's some variables that we need to look at
Scooter: one, some of that could be in reserves of other countries
Scooter: and those reserves will never see the shores of Iraq ever again.
Scooter: that number is unknown right now
Scooter: and nobody knows what that amount currently is
Scooter: we do know that within the immediate area of baghdad
Scooter: there's approximately 4 trillion in hard currency
Scooter: Saleh just reported that one
Scooter: with that said, and knowing Baghdad has approximately 6 - 8 million of the populace
Scooter: we can start dissecting and making educated guesses
Scooter: Now, the other unknown in this equation are two items
Scooter: The $173 Billion USD sitting at US Treasury account that came from the DFI's Savings account
Scooter: We don't know, how much $$$$$ is being sheltered from the partner countries
Scooter: to be dedicated to Iraq when the structural changes go down
Scooter: What do you think the circulation in Iraq is?
Scooter: sorry, I know., you're doing the questions ...
Sam I Am: My guess is 20 trillion
Scooter: In Iraq?
Sam I Am: Like I said, it's a guess
Scooter: just like mine
Scooter: I think it's in the 12 - 14 range
Scooter: probably closer to 12
Scooter: I figure outside countries will carry 8 trillion
Scooter: independent investors is unknown and the speculation is all over the map.
Scooter: like I said -- everything is a guess -- ha ha
Scooter: I think the moves that are required to reduce the circulation of the larger notes have been occurring over the last six months in country
Sam I Am: Do you think there has been a significant reduction of IQD in circulation in Iraq?
Scooter: I think they will make the structural changes and we'll see a hybrid conversion
Scooter: the larger notes will be sucked into the CBI and they will SOIL those notes immediately
Scooter: the value is still the same -- i mean of the aggregate number ---
Sam I Am: replaced by USD?
Scooter: if the value of there reserves were 25 Billion before -- it will be valued at 25 billion when they convert
Scooter: they need to to create immediate demand for IQD
Scooter: they need to de dollarize their economy and fast
Sam I Am: right
Sam I Am: that's their stated goal
Scooter: Their goal will be to make the IQD the standard throughout the country
Scooter: and make it attractive to do business inside the country and to investors inside and outside the country.
Sam I Am: okay, so you're saying the IQD will be sucked into the CBI upon the RV?
Scooter: I think they are already reducing the 1000 series notes as we speak
Scooter: but we won't have the details of their banking circulation for the year
Scooter: until the third week of January
Scooter: maybe fourth week
Scooter: that's when some good juicy details about the exact make up the the circulation comes out
Scooter: it will tell us how many 25k notes are in the private banks, government banks, and individuals hands
Scooter: all the notes and coins
Scooter: but they only provide that report once a year
Scooter: So they will suck those notes in and deploy the CPI immediately
Scooter: remember, they have already deploy almost 2 million of those smart cards
Sam I Am: CPI?
Scooter: those cards are like having 15 wallets or files on you
Scooter: Consumer Price Index
Scooter: They modified it in March of 2010 to reflect the lower denoms
Scooter: they just haven't deployed it yet
Sam I Am: ok
Scooter: also, those Iraqi citizens will immediately need to open their first checking account
Scooter: if they haven't already
Scooter: they'll deploy the lower denoms and coins immediately
Scooter: and suck in those larger notes
Scooter: I don't think they'll be able to do this all at once
Scooter: it's virtually impossible to do this in a short period of time
Scooter: As a result, they will be encouraged in some way shape or form to convert that CASH into electronic form
Scooter: Just my opinion
Sam I Am: okay
Scooter: one other item
Scooter: they need to develop their Government Bond and Commercial Bond market space
Scooter: That is very very critical
Sam I Am: Yes, Enoch made reference to that
Scooter: Yes, the government needs liquidity and that's what these bonds can provide
Scooter: Those bonds will help pay for these critical projects over the long run
Scooter: It appears they are leaning toward the Japanese model
Scooter: that's another discussion
Sam I Am: How does your view now differ from your original time frame and expectation of $.35?
Scooter: Good question!!!,
Scooter: when I first made my estimates,
Scooter: I hadn't reviewed the 1000's pages of documents from multiple organizations
Scooter: So my opinion has changed quite bit since that time.
Scooter: Now, with that said
Scooter: let me make the disclaimer
Scooter: anything, and I mean anything, can occur in this investment
Scooter: that includes nothing happening at all.
Scooter: but when the founders of the plan developed the details, they had several strategic goals in mind
Scooter: Significantly improve the lifestyle of every Iraqi citizen
Scooter: move them from earning $2.00 a day per family to
Scooter: something significantly better with a currency that had a strong purchasing power
Scooter: With that goal achieved, the citizens of Iraq, in theory, would be drawn to more market driven activities
Scooter: We knew they had all the resources
Scooter: but politics, the enemy, and several mistakes made throughout has slowed the process down considerably
Scooter: Iraq needed to be the poster child for western democracy throughout the middle east
Scooter: as a result,
Scooter: this RV was built around several financial Tranches
Scooter: some of those haven't occurred but are waiting for the right moment
Scooter: The idea was to plant several economic explosions in locations that will take off in their economy, invigorating the private sector and foreign investment
Scooter: For example, agriculture
Scooter: that was one of the targets
Scooter: At one time, Agriculture was a far bigger contributor to their GDP than oil
Scooter: it was close to 37%
Scooter: this had an impact on my opinion as to the price point to open.
Scooter: Saleh has said the real value of the IQD is around $1.30
Scooter: the 2009 budget, as evidenced by the Tables of increases from their budget, came in at $1.17
Scooter: 2010 -- $2.05
Scooter: 2011 -- $1.27
Scooter: Now that combines both the operational budgets and Investment budgets.
Scooter: So to answer your question my friend
Scooter: $0.35 ?
Scooter: I don't think so -- I think there's another plan that hasn't been seen or discussed in the forums
Scooter: and they will be paying for this RV in some other way
Scooter: Just my opinion
Sam I Am: ok
Sam I Am: and the time frame is .... whenever?
Scooter: Who knows
Scooter: I can show you documents from the IMF
Scooter: that indicated the structural changes were to occur at the same time as the parliamentary elections of 2010
Scooter: Nobody knows -- but they are behind scheduled -- that is for certain.
Scooter: it could be June 2013
Scooter: when the Iraqi Banking reforms are scheduled for conclusion
Scooter: nobody knows
Scooter: but remember, the banking industry and governments are the BEST at misdirection
Scooter: they will have you look to left and sneak through the back door and steal the cookie jar.
Sam I Am: Okay, one last question
Scooter: I have one more in me
Sam I Am: What is your advice for dinar speculators and potential investors?
Scooter: I can't provide any advice as I'm not a licensed financial planner
Scooter: I will say this again --- there's far too much INTEL out there being provided, with the majority being incorrect
Scooter: However, this is a great opportunity !!!!!
Scooter: I won't deny that but I still treat this as something riskier than a penny stock
Scooter: because it is.
Scooter: and nobody knows what's going to happen for the exception of about 3 - 5 people
Scooter: in the world.
Scooter: but the good news is that there's strong tangible evidence that suggest the RV will occur.,
Scooter: Logic dictates that it's required sooner rather than later
Scooter: That's it
Sam I Am: Anything else you'd like to add?
Scooter: I don't think so --- I think I've bantered about for the last hour and a half
Scooter: I'm good!
Sam I Am: Okay, thanks for your time and all of your research
Scooter: I just hope this was helpful !
Scooter: You are so welcome Sam