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Where's the money going to come from???/


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16 hours ago, caz1104 said:

Lot of "if's"......sounds just like a "guru" only in this case a NEGATIVE guru.....Congrats Rockfish u have been dubbed

DUBBED ! Well then henceforth you may address me as SIR Rockfish.  Until  I am appointed a count or Duke or something else.

 

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Currency exchanges are an even money deal.  One traders gain is another's LOSS. SO WHO will buy a dinar for a dollar?  Banks don't buy and hold foreign currencies , They broker it for third parties. T

Ohhh I left out a re-occurring role the Rockford files. And yes my friend stranger things have happened.......a peanut farmer, & a community organizer just to name a few. Hope u had a great T

Don't laugh my friend, crazier things have happened.  Now, I'm not sticking up for Rock, but, seriously?!  Billionaire Real Estate Flipper......Beauty Queen maker.......Reality T.V. extraordinaire....

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On 3/14/2018 at 10:46 AM, rockfl9 said:

OK, lets say the CBI "pushes the button" and sets a new rate at 10 cents!  Remember they are 10 hours ahead of us AND this rate is only good at a bank in Iraq. So while you were sleeping any Iraqi with spare dinar headed to the bank "cashing in" for dollars. SOON the bank is out of dollars unless it tapped the reserves. If it does that the exchange rate further declines. The only recourse would be to stop issuing cash . I think that would cause a panic in Iraq. By the time you wake up the big RV is a flop.

My point here is that an abrupt increase in the rate may well  have unintended consequences .. price instability , inflation ,lack of confidence in the banking system. sudden wealth for some classes and worsening conditions for others.  Many educated Iraqis would leave the country if they could get enough dollars.

With all the reconstruction costs ahead i dont expect economic conditions to improve no matter what happens to the price of oil. 

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1 hour ago, rockfl9 said:

My point here is that an abrupt increase in the rate may well  have unintended consequences .. price instability , inflation ,lack of confidence in the banking system. sudden wealth for some classes and worsening conditions for others.  Many educated Iraqis would leave the country if they could get enough dollars.

With all the reconstruction costs ahead i dont expect economic conditions to improve no matter what happens to the price of oil. 

Sounds like many countries worldwide....egads the horror.

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On 3/14/2018 at 7:46 AM, rockfl9 said:

OK, lets say the CBI "pushes the button" and sets a new rate at 10 cents!  Remember they are 10 hours ahead of us AND this rate is only good at a bank in Iraq. So while you were sleeping any Iraqi with spare dinar headed to the bank "cashing in" for dollars. SOON the bank is out of dollars unless it tapped the reserves. If it does that the exchange rate further declines. The only recourse would be to stop issuing cash . I think that would cause a panic in Iraq. By the time you wake up the big RV is a flop.

I once remember hearing that the rate would be $14.00  . Truthfully that number is so ridiculous that it was a turning point for me.  It made me start looking at the math and it did not take to long once I took my blinders off to realize the incredible and unrealistic sums of currency the gurus were talking about.

.But I still have my 100,000 dinar. 4 crisp 25K uncirculated notes  in a shoe box somewhere in the garage. 

But then i sold my 9.9 million dinar and invested it I  now own 3 separate gold claims, a heck of a lot of mining equipment and well over 10 ounces of shiney shiney dug out of the earth with my own two hands.  Cant complain.  Problem is i cant bring myself to sell any of my gold. I worked to darn hard to get that gold one piece at a time. LOL

 

.. Im sure my kids will someday find it in a shoebox somewhere.in the garage. along with my 4 25K dinar notes 

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On 3/15/2018 at 8:22 PM, SocalDinar said:

I once remember hearing that the rate would be $14.00  . Truthfully that number is so ridiculous that it was a turning point for me.  It made me start looking at the math and it did not take to long once I took my blinders off to realize the incredible and unrealistic sums of currency the gurus were talking about.

.

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I never read the $14 rate.  But with 80+ TRILLION in M2  even the $1 rate should  blow a whistle ..  80 Trillion dollars !!!!!  The value of the dinar IS a LIABILITY on the books of the CBI.  Then there are all the securities issued by the MOF that must be paid back at the new rate .. With all those outstanding the MOF/CBI would NEVER, NEVER, NEVER change the rate higher... They may be a little  behind BUT they are not STUPID!

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There is an axiom in logic called Occams Razor.. Basically it says dont sweat the small stuff  , look for the 900# gorilla. So forget the chapter 8, 2%, 90 day rules. Find out where the money will come from. From what i can figure it is expected that the CBI will announce a rate . The dinar will go INTERNATIONAL and get picked up on FOREX and BANG go to the bank and cash in!  BUT  FOREX traders with the CASH will have to BELIEVE that the dinar is a better bet than ALL the other  currencies. In the SPOT market (i.e. physical currency )  they usually flip the money in a few days.

Oh  another thing BANKS dont buy and hold currencies they TRADE them ASAP. Even then it is a nuisance  which leads me to question the #800 scheme. 

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Just getting on my soapbox, CAZ

You may have your laugh now. I could say i will have mine later but I wont feel good when this thing tanks.  I know a few have commented that they havent spent more than they could afford to loose like you but many will be crushed financially and mentally.  5,10, 15 years of dreams gone.  The gurus and hopium could keep it going another 10 .  I hope not.  

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16 hours ago, caz1104 said:

LOL....talking to ones self I see

LOPsters the gift of laughter that keeps on a comin

 

I know i am locked in the tank and can't get to most of the Rvers. but i see some  beginning to comment on the possibility that there may be more bumps in the road to riches than expected. Maybe will have to WAIT till the end of the next 5 year plan! But even as the doubts grow the germ of the rv is still there .   So they will only sell SOME! Or at least that is what they say.

The CBI wants to get out of the TP business and lift the zeros . every year they delay it is wasted effort.  Thiscould be the year if the elections doesnt get in the way.

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Back then there was the hope/wish was that the zeros would come off the rate ,not the notes .  BUT when reality set in and the lift the zeros means NO profit many cashed-in and dropped out. At least it has a greater probability than a positive revalue.

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Macroeconomics 101 : On any one day there is a finite amount of FREE dollars, euros, yuan available for investment. The exchange rate between currencies may change every minute but in theory the value of the pool of monies remains the same.  One gains and the other looses.  As it is intended , the IQD is NOT traded in this market  ( that is GOI  monetary policy. ). SO  If the CBI says the IQD is now worth a dollar , or so many Euros , the world economy is not involved.  The other central banks will not recognize the change,.  They dont have to because  officially the IQD is not part of their system.  The GOI WANTS this isolation  because it is the way they can control the distribution of it's wealth (i.e. the oil revenues).  It is part of the Islamic culture.

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On ‎4‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 9:38 AM, rockfl9 said:

Just getting on my soapbox, CAZ

You may have your laugh now. I could say i will have mine later but I wont feel good when this thing tanks.  I know a few have commented that they havent spent more than they could afford to loose like you but many will be crushed financially and mentally.  5,10, 15 years of dreams gone.  The gurus and hopium could keep it going another 10 .  I hope not.  

BS...you love and feed off the possibility of the Dinar failing....why else would you be here.

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On ‎4‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 7:19 AM, rockfl9 said:

Back then there was the hope/wish was that the zeros would come off the rate ,not the notes .  BUT when reality set in and the lift the zeros means NO profit many cashed-in and dropped out. At least it has a greater probability than a positive revalue.

Of course that didn't answer Botzwana's question now did it?

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9 minutes ago, caz1104 said:

BS...you love and feed off the possibility of the Dinar failing....why else would you be here.

No , I dont think the dinar will fail, considering the circumstances it is doing as well as could be,. actually better than I would think,.  What I question is the  expectation that it can increase in value  substantially given the condition of the country and it's finances. AND no one  can explain HOW or WHY ??????? .  Given this group of so called INVESTORS , I am puzzled. They have done the research , certainly should have some facts to support their conclusions.  

16 minutes ago, caz1104 said:

Of course that didn't answer Botzwana's question now did it? 

I thnk i did! IF you decided that this INVESTMENT was not worth the time it is logical that you would stop posting to the site and look for another.

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WTO - -  Floridian and scarry mary are right !   FINALLY some people are doing some real research.  WTO has nothing to do with the domestic exchange rate , to trade internationally you must have access to a HARD currency AND it really doesnt matter what you have to offer in trade  but OIL is OK.  The WTO  provides access to a set of   quality, quantity and exchange standards that  put all its members on equivalent terms and conditions. Thats all.  Even if a country only imports goods  membership is a plus.

Even as a non-member Iraq benefits by dealing with countries that use WTO rules . By applying for membership Iraq can take advantage of the rules although it may  have no voting rights.

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USD in Iraq ?????  I believe so many dinarians  believe that the USD trades like cash in Iraq.  Iraqis only use IQD for daily transactions. THE dollar in Iraq is THE ONE HUNDRED, not the 5s, 10s like we do.  When the GOI gets dollars for oil THEY STAY in a NY or London bank account .  WHEN the CBI needs physical dollars to sell at the cash window they must BUY the dollars in London and PAY to have them shipped securely to Bagdad. Obviously that is a cost and they will not bother with small bills !.

SOOO  ALL the dinar circulates within the economy as always. The dollars are used as a savings device or used when traveling abroad .  THINK about it, why  would an Iraqi pay a premium to buy dollars(100)  then loose   value to convert back to dinar????

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I was also wondering if the CBI was worried about soo many USD circulating in the economy . Why worry? every 100 USD an Iraqi buys there is 119000 IQD put back in circulation that the  CBI doesn't  Have to replace .  That's goodness  . I'm thinking That if they removed all restrictions in buying the dollar at the bank ( as it is in most countries)  they  would be able to stop producing 50K notes and save money.  Just a thought if this was the case then if they RD the first notes to recall would be the 50Ks  !!   I wouldn't buy any.

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I saw an interesting program on CSPAN-TV . Iraqi ambassador ,  Kurdish spokeswoman and a panel from a DC thinktank.   There was a comment that Mismanagement not corruption is the biggest impediment to Progress. Abadis plan to bring in "Technocrats and experts" failed due to leftover patronage and nepotism. He made a few enemies there. The Amb. said they did not need any help/observers to assure a fair election but a final decision was up to the high election commission.

 

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the CBI  cannot simply increase the Purchasing power of the dinar,  Iraqi's as a whole must do it!  They must get more Hard currency coming in OR become more productive and reduce the dependence on imports.  Government  hand-outs  don't produce anything . We should know that. For the last 15 years Iraqi's have  existed on gov jobs or welfare. Now with reconstruction there should be a lot of work available IF the Iraqi's are willing to do it.

Al-Sadr may be able to set the right path BUT  he expects to  find the technocrats to do it .But that means REPLACING  those who are now in control.  The first things are electricity and water. Without those nothing can advance.  Get people off welfare and on to reconstruction. 

BUT it will be a hard pull.

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  The CBI exchange rate is only valid in-country where it has absolute control.  Outside of Iraq the currency market controls on ALL currencies. Right now the IQD market is controlled by the dealers fueled  by the rumors of a big , big RV. Even if the CBI changes the rate to 1;1 the world market won't support it because the dollar support is't there .

Think , if the big change has already happened  WHO would jump in? THERE is no currency investor  THAT stupid!  Any one sitting on dinar will be left holding the bag.  

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I don't know WHY a bank person or a real currency trader on this site wouldnt have also asked this question????   Then I thought WHY would  such a person be here at all !!!!

They would understand how an RV of even 1/10  of a cent is IMPOSSIBLE under current conditions, if ever at all

Just THINK , if the cbi says the IQD is worth 10 cents in Iraq and all Iraqi's could trade on that value ., MILLIONS of dollars would pour out of the country. Why  would they do that ??  Because they know it would NOT LAST . They would be dirt poor in days . Wait a day and it is GONE.  The CBI only has $60M  to pay out.  A person in Iraq  can only draw on the CBI there is no other source . When the CBI becomes insolvent  It's ability to manage the dinar is lost.

Some one please tell me how/why???

 

 

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18 hours ago, rockfl9 said:

I don't know WHY a bank person or a real currency trader on this site wouldnt have also asked this question????   Then I thought WHY would  such a person be here at all !!!!

They would understand how an RV of even 1/10  of a cent is IMPOSSIBLE under current conditions, if ever at all

Just THINK , if the cbi says the IQD is worth 10 cents in Iraq and all Iraqi's could trade on that value ., MILLIONS of dollars would pour out of the country. Why  would they do that ??  Because they know it would NOT LAST . They would be dirt poor in days . Wait a day and it is GONE.  The CBI only has $60M  to pay out.  A person in Iraq  can only draw on the CBI there is no other source . When the CBI becomes insolvent  It's ability to manage the dinar is lost.

Some one please tell me how/why???

 

 

I don't know WHY you "such a person would be here at all" either!!!!! Your not vested. So if ur to naïve to understand why those that ARE vested are here....duh, then what SANE person with nothing vested be here? For years at that....now that's INSANE by any SANE's persons definition.

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