Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content
  • CRYPTO REWARDS!

    Full endorsement on this opportunity - but it's limited, so get in while you can!

Where's the money going to come from???/


rockfl9
 Share

Recommended Posts

AHA, but for all currencies there ARE TWO (at least) rates . An internal rate set by the central bank AND a second rate determined by the DEMAND in the international market.  There could also exist a third rate but it's existence is complicated so  I wont try to explain here .

The internal rate is set by the central bank to meet the needs  of the local government . It could be pegged to some benchmark OR set by FIAT or just plain FLOAT in response to the internal market.  It is the rate that sets the price level IN THE LOCAL MARKET.  IT can be any rate that sets the granularity for the local currency .  In many cases it may not even make sense in reference to other nation's currency (example the British  pound sterling ) . THe Internal rate is set as legal tender in the native economy.  That is all it is! 

The International rate is set by the law of supply and demand in competition with all the other currencies ( That is it's FAIR VALUE in real time).  What is it's worth against other currencies in what it can buy. People INVEST in a currency with the expectation that it's FUTURE WORTH will increase  in  the international market NOT what the internal rate sets it to be.  So the CBI/MOF could change  the rate to anything  that suits their purpose but unless there is an actual improvement in value the international rate remains constant.

A good example is the USD . In the US the dollar is considered a static value for all transactions.  But in the international currency market the value of the dollar varies . Since the dollar is considered a benchmark  in the currency market that variation shows up as a change in other currencies  ( the value of the dollar falls and the other currency rises.) 

  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, rockfl9 said:

A good example is the USD . In the US the dollar is considered a static value for all transactions.  But in the international currency market the value of the dollar varies . Since the dollar is considered a benchmark  in the currency market that variation shows up as a change in other currencies  ( the value of the dollar falls and the other currency rises.) 

But there are not 2 rates for the USD  vs other currencies.  The USD floats so its value against other floating currencies (the Euro)  is based on supply and demand.  Its value against pegged currents is set by the respective central bank and is limited by their ability to pay.But if its value to those other currencies were to change broadly and significantly that would cause price in the US to adjust. This is the one price law in action.    The rate for a pegged currency in international markets can not vary significantly from the same rate offered by the central bank as if it did you could simply buy in one and sell in the other and in no time at all own the entire planet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/28/2019 at 12:11 AM, EverCurious452 said:

But there are not 2 rates for the USD  vs other currencies.  The USD floats so its value against other floating currencies (the Euro)  is based on supply and demand.  Its value against pegged currents is set by the respective central bank and is limited by their ability to pay.But if its value to those other currencies were to change broadly and significantly that would cause price in the US to adjust. This is the one price law in action.    The rate for a pegged currency in international markets can not vary significantly from the same rate offered by the central bank as if it did you could simply buy in one and sell in the other and in no time at all own the entire planet.

The ONLY source for dollars into Iraq is thru oil revenue.  The GOI restricts the that may be consumed with the amounts tendered in the auctions. Those dollars are converted to dinar currently at 1190:1 primarily to cover internal expenses mostly salaries .  Now if the CBI were to increase the rate to something less then the MOF would have to put in more dollars to receive the same amount of dinar or it could not meet the payroll .  The last estimate i saw said the current payroll was 60% of oil revenues.  So  if the cbi were to simply halve the rate to 600:1 (less than 2/10 of a cent ) the GOI  would be INSOLVENT within a month. I wonder why people cant see that.. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

Let us get back to the subject.  

The CBI cannot create dollars.  It can only tender those dollars it has in reserve.

How does the CBI do a $0.10  RV ? It will first announce in the auction THAT it is PAYING 10 cents for any IQD offered at the bank in IRAQ only. The result would be a demand for more dollars than it has. It would be bankrupt in a day. Now the MOF could refuse to offer any dollars. The result would be no one would get paid. Anyone who had a dollar surely would not give it up for 10 dinar no matter what the CBI rate was.

In fact the dollar would become more valuable if the CBI got out of the market.!  The street rate would go up, . That is called  INSTABILITY.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The gurus/pumpers want you to believe that there will not be any problems with going to your local bank to "cash-in :' if and when there would be an RV of the dinar .  There will be #800 for "appointments " and redemption centers with trained staff to count the money and pay you with cash or check.. This to relieve you of the concern with sending your super-valuable IQD through the  US mail.

Well it is not going to be that easy.

First the RV would be well  underway IN IRAQ before you know it happened.  Iraqi's get to cash in first.

Second there are no prepared redemption centers ,  US banks don't believe in any need for special treatment. They have standard processes to exchange currency IF there is a DEMAND and NEED to satisfy clients.  That is the key point of where the banks are today.  WHY would they offer to buy IQD from you IF NOBODY WANTS any ??????   Just because there is an increase in the rate IN IRAQ does note translate to a need in any other country.  Take the case of the 1:1 MYTH. Why spend a real 1 million USD to buy 1 million  IQD ??? To do what ?  Sit on it for years (?) in the HOPE the value would increase and could be sold to another who believes it would further increase!!!  Who would take the risk with that much money involved???  They certainly would not just rely on RUMORS.

You can take this down to 10 cents or even 1 cent and the logic  is the same ,  no one would be asking a bank to purchase dinar for them.

 Now could they RV to a whole ,001 cent .  YES they could , but the reason would be to cover inflation .  We know that the true cost of everything goes up . But the GOI has masked those increases with subsidies and manipulating the exchange rate through the auctions. 

But they are running out of slack and cant hide it much longer.  So the MOF/CBI has 2 choices Print more and larger notes OR bump the rate so that existing notes carry more relative value.  Over time they could repeat the increases .  Gradually giving more value to the same bulk amount of currency ..  BUT ALAS all the time you will be loosing value in dollars invested. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/29/2020 at 12:27 PM, rockfl9 said:

The gurus/pumpers want you to believe that there will not be any problems with going to your local bank to "cash-in :' if and when there would be an RV of the dinar .  There will be #800 for "appointments " and redemption centers with trained staff to count the money and pay you with cash or check.. This to relieve you of the concern with sending your super-valuable IQD through the  US mail.

Well it is not going to be that easy.

First the RV would be well  underway IN IRAQ before you know it happened.  Iraqi's get to cash in first.

Second there are no prepared redemption centers ,  US banks don't believe in any need for special treatment. They have standard processes to exchange currency IF there is a DEMAND and NEED to satisfy clients.  That is the key point of where the banks are today.  WHY would they offer to buy IQD from you IF NOBODY WANTS any ??????   Just because there is an increase in the rate IN IRAQ does note translate to a need in any other country.  Take the case of the 1:1 MYTH. Why spend a real 1 million USD to buy 1 million  IQD ??? To do what ?  Sit on it for years (?) in the HOPE the value would increase and could be sold to another who believes it would further increase!!!  Who would take the risk with that much money involved???  They certainly would not just rely on RUMORS.

You can take this down to 10 cents or even 1 cent and the logic  is the same ,  no one would be asking a bank to purchase dinar for them.

 Now could they RV to a whole ,001 cent .  YES they could , but the reason would be to cover inflation .  We know that the true cost of everything goes up . But the GOI has masked those increases with subsidies and manipulating the exchange rate through the auctions. 

But they are running out of slack and cant hide it much longer.  So the MOF/CBI has 2 choices Print more and larger notes OR bump the rate so that existing notes carry more relative value.  Over time they could repeat the increases .  Gradually giving more value to the same bulk amount of currency ..  BUT ALAS all the time you will be loosing value in dollars invested. 

 

Yep

Inflation is a tax on savings 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You cant have economic expansion without some amount of inflation.  I don't know if that is a law of economics but  it just turns out that way.  Our FED looks at inflation/expansion ration as a need to adjust interest rates..  The  CBI/MOF quote a low inflation rate for Iraq , Is that the result of tightly controlled growth through the auctions ?   Although kept at a modest increase thru the years the MOF has bumped up the amount of dollars available lately..   Is that caused by increased prices or increased volumes ?   

There is on indisputable fact ----  every year they have more little Iraqis to feed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I never understood why inflation is needed for economic expansion.  The Fed debases our currency by increasing our money supply without any tangible assets to back it. Nixon screwed us by taking us off the gold standard in my opinion.  He gave government a blank check. They lie to us about the core inflation rate so they dont have to adjust entitlements to their true value.   

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SD..  The Gold Standard is not what most people think ... It was not based on gold backed currency.  The Bretton Woods Accord  simply set up a value for adjusting trade imbalances with a fixed value for gold.  It assumed that all central bankers were honest .  It was well known before the Nixon announcement that European central banks were profiting by selling their gold at the higher free market price for dollars that they used to draw on the US reserves. In essence they were stealing from our treasury.

.The system we have today allows for trade imbalances to be handled at the current  "bulk" market price of gold.  That price is set by open market trading  at the central bank level.  Gold is still used to make trade adjustments . but using SDRs is more efficient.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All under the agreement could convert their US dollars for gold.  It just never made sense to ship the gold back and forth. Afterall the US dollar was as good as gold back in 44. But with the space program and Vietnam war costing the US big time and many other countries became nervous. They knew we were overspending .It was doubtful we could cover our money supply let alone the other countries gold we held. The Fed is nothing but a huge Ponzi scheme IMO,  Their bullion banks also use fractional banking loaning  gold that does not exist. Just  Look how long it took Germany to repatriate its gold in 2012.   And you have to ask why they did. They did finally get their gold five years later. Why so long.?     Just my opinion and Im just an electrical  contractor who likes GOLD!!  LOL heading out to do some metal detecting for nuggets this weekend with the wife. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SD.  Won't it be snowing at your claim this time of year ?

No country covers their currency at anywhere near 100%  THESE DAYS .  While the IMF expects full transparency from governments it is supporting.  it is savvy enough to allow some latitude in reporting. For example  Iraq has gold in its reserves but it also sells some of the gold on a regular basis . The amount is variable. 

P.S>   Do you have any idea how dinarans  believe that increasing the value of the dinar would make up for the shortfall in oil revenues ?  The number of DOLLARS coming in will not change . The change would only DECREASE the number of dinar they get from the sale !

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was definitely to wet to dry wash but easy digging when metal detecting. No snow on the ground in the El Paso mountains this weekend. My gold bug 2 can reach max of about 5 inches deep, found plenty of brass and lead. LOL

Actually got skunked this weekend but the weather was good and any day away from the city is always worth it.  If it was easy everyone would be doing it

 

Cant believe the amount of land we are destroying with solar panels. As long as i can remember we were told to tread lightly and we did.  But for the greater good they can cover hundreds of square miles with these solar power plants.

 

So Iraq's proven oil reserves is about 150 Billion barrels.  Not sure how much they make off each barrel. Only a percentage of each barrels value goes to the GOI.  Any idea of how much they get in oil revenues per barrel?  If we knew that we could do the math on their proven reserve value at today's rates.  Not sure what the balance of their income is from, Guessing agriculture

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Golden State's Clean Green Hypocrisy

COMMENTARY
 
.
 
 
February 08, 2020
 
(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)

The California State Legislature claims to be leading the charge against climate change, yet state lawmakers have a dirty little secret that needs to be exposed as the raging hypocrisy it is. 

If protecting the climate is their Holy Grail of causes, how do they justify the recent moratorium on nearly all oil production in California? As the rest of the nation has become energy independent for the first time in history, California still imports 70% of its oil — primarily from Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In a state with an abundance of this natural resource, why are we bringing it in from the other side of the world rather than producing it right here at home? 

The more oil we import, the more carbon output we create. Not only is imported oil much dirtier than what is produced in California, but it requires cargo ships to take it to our ports and trucks or trains to transport it all over the state — all which pollute our air and add to the congestion of our highways, ports, and railways. 

We import more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than we produce in California, which ties us to the Middle East in dangerous and unnecessary ways. We also get oil from Colombia and Brazil — both of which put the environment at risk with their low production standards that pollute waterways, cause spills and create threats to the rainforest and endangered species. U.S. energy is safe, reliable, affordable, and the cleanest possible. Punishing California oil producers only subsidizes bad actors worldwide, creating national security risks, harming the planet, and even funding human rights abuses.  

It also puts the Golden State in a precarious position. If tensions were to escalate with one of the countries that supplies a large portion of our oil, it would put California’s supply line in jeopardy and potentially paralyze the state with shortages. This is one of the primary reasons why the rest of the country has moved away from dependency on foreign oil. With the nation as a whole a net exporter of oil once again, there is no excuse for California’s self-imposed dependency on imported foreign oil. 

 

California already leads the nation in renewables — over 30% of the state’s electricity comes from renewable energy sources. The transition to cleaner power is already happening here — but there is still no immediate pathway forward for the state without gas and oil. California oil producers already function under the strictest environmental standards in the country; they should be admired as a role model for the industry, not punished. Limiting production does not limit demand or consumption. Lawmakers could go so far as to outlaw oil extraction altogether, but that wouldn’t stop the cars and busses and trucks.  

Last summer, Gov. Gavin Newsom imposed a moratorium on fracking — which accounts for about 90% of new drilling permits — while state officials "study the safety" of operating these oil fields. This “study” has lasted for months now already, with no committed timeline to return to the previous pace of approvals. During this time, California’s oil industry is not only losing money, investors, and tax revenue, but it is being publicly defamed as if oil producers are single-handedly responsible for polluting the planet.  

Kern County, in the heartland of California, has been hit especially hard by the governor’s ruling, and is looking at options ranging from declaring a state of economic emergency to deeming the county an "oil sanctuary." 

The Trump administration has sought to throw California’s oil industry a lifeline by lifting a federal moratorium on new oil and gas leases on federal lands. The move was projected to support nearly 3,000 jobs and generate $670 million in tax revenue, but Newsom’s fracking freeze has deprived California of those benefits. 

 

These permit delays are economically devastating to California, but they also create national security risks that the rest of the country should be concerned about as well. As President Trump continues to make our nation safer by lessening our dependence on foreign imports, Newsom has put the special interests of the vocal progressives ahead of the good of the state and the country. His drilling moratorium is a sop to radical environmentalists, but it doesn’t even accomplish its stated goals. Newsome isn’t changing the climate for the better; he’s just changing the economy of California for the worse.  

Gov. Newsom should immediately remove his moratorium and allow Kern County and the rest of the state to drill — and grow — again. California’s clean, green hypocrisy is on full display in this debilitating decision to effectively end oil production in the Golden State. California Democrats are choosing to make a political point over truly protecting the environment. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/02/08/the_golden_states_clean_green_hypocrisy_142346.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/10/2020 at 10:05 AM, SocalDinar said:

I

 

So Iraq's proven oil reserves is about 150 Billion barrels.  Not sure how much they make off each barrel. Only a percentage of each barrels value goes to the GOI.  Any idea of how much they get in oil revenues per barrel?  If we knew that we could do the math on their proven reserve value at today's rates.  Not sure what the balance of their income is from, Guessing agriculture

I think the oil ministry has been reporting gross sales.  The operating companies get $5 per barrel AND get to recover construction costs for new wells. Note that over the last 5 years new well construction has been cut back to save money.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guru Sandyf  is correct . The IQD will only be worth what the CBI will pay to buy it back in the International market. But the CBI is only paying .00086 to approved  Iraqis IN IRAQ. It will not buy it back from any other source AT ANY PRICE. WHY NOT ! because it is afraid of a raid on it's reserves.   

To change would require the GOI to change fiscal policy.  Iraqs dollars are for the benefit of Iraq ONLY.  That is their complete mindset. 

The CBi may find it advantageous in the future to adjust the rate to .001 or even 0.10.  But that rate will still only stand IN IRAQ.  NO non-Iraqi  will benefit.!  

Remember D J Trump said they are the biggest bunch of thieves he has ever met.  THINK why would they pay even $21 to buy back a 25K note when they could just print a new one for 6 cents!  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...
On 2/17/2020 at 3:24 PM, rockfl9 said:

Guru Sandyf  is correct . The IQD will only be worth what the CBI will pay to buy it back in the International market. But the CBI is only paying .00086 to approved  Iraqis IN IRAQ. It will not buy it back from any other source AT ANY PRICE. WHY NOT ! because it is afraid of a raid on it's reserves.   

To change would require the GOI to change fiscal policy.  Iraqs dollars are for the benefit of Iraq ONLY.  That is their complete mindset. 

The CBi may find it advantageous in the future to adjust the rate to .001 or even 0.10.  But that rate will still only stand IN IRAQ.  NO non-Iraqi  will benefit.!  

Remember D J Trump said they are the biggest bunch of thieves he has ever met.  THINK why would they pay even $21 to buy back a 25K note when they could just print a new one for 6 cents!  

I have to ask that question again.

If the CBI wont buy back dinar from non-Iraqi's WHO will  ?????  WE get mixed reports of the status of the reserves . I have not seen a CBI annual report for the last 4 years , why not ???? Are they hiding something ??  We have seen articles but only vague statements by MOF that the amount is ADEQUATE .. I am not sure what that means in financial terms.

The CASH window has been closed for several months now which means that Iraqi's out of the country for business or medical reasons probably aren't getting any dollars to live on. Those that were in school abroad probably were required to return home.

The new budget will most likely be month to month. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
On 5/16/2020 at 12:18 PM, rockfl9 said:

I have to ask that question again.

If the CBI wont buy back dinar from non-Iraqi's WHO will

Maybe sell them on Ebay.

This link shows Dinar that sold. Some people paying premiums these days.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=iraqi+dinar&_sacat=0&rt=nc&LH_Sold=1&LH_Complete=1

 

People are getting $40+ for a single 25,000 dinar note. Amazing

 

Oh crud  This is post 666 for this thread. 

Edited by SocalDinar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/9/2020 at 6:14 PM, SocalDinar said:

Maybe sell them on Ebay.
 

 

.People are getting $40+ for a single 25,000 dinar note. Amazing

 

 

That's a far cry from going to a BANK and exchanging whole mils COD !!!

Although banks cant avoid handling  USD  fear of contamination  could make them avoid taking in IQD. Maybe they will require appointments  and meet you at the door wearing PPEs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know the guru's have touted that there will be an RV which will create enormous demand for IQD and all you have to do is go into a bank and EXCHANGE for dollars. But consider that if the RV is .10 that is $100K per mil !  WHO has that kind of money to put at risk?   Dinarians would have waited 17 years for that .,  It could be another 17 years and the IQD would go nowhere ( the bloom is off the rose ).  In the last 15 years we have seen several problems for Iraq.  The most serious financially is the loss of income.   The solution was to reduce production which  also reduces income.  Iraq is going (?) broke.

The NET is that if Iraq were to attempt an RV of any amount under these conditions --- NO educated currency manager would BELIEVE it !

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can sell anything at any price (offered) on Ebay,  ,, , I heard of a person that sold bags of DIRT !!!!

Did you read AMs July 12 message ?  It has a couple of unusual assumptions .  One is that the CBI would directly ??  offer to buy back IQD at a profit to the seller. There is no way to do that except in Iraq. Once the dinar is circulated the CBI NEVER  expects to get it back. Trading is done thru  the FOREX market in general and here the price is set by demand..Central banks only deal with other central banks and regulated by the BIS.

Again doing the Math. If the CBI were to set the rate at 10 cents ( which it can do for the Iraqi market) BUT NOT increase the reserves that would be a FLOAT in the International Market and that would be a dilution in value of 100 ( or more ) ... 

The attempt would be viewed as a price manipulation...  The BIS/IMF have rules against overt price manipulations and would send the CBI to the penalty box.   i.e. If the CBI were to actually do that in Iraq it would be a drain on the reserves and make the IQD worth les Internationally...

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
On ‎7‎/‎9‎/‎2020 at 11:14 PM, SocalDinar said:

Maybe sell them on Ebay.

This link shows Dinar that sold. Some people paying premiums these days.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=iraqi+dinar&_sacat=0&rt=nc&LH_Sold=1&LH_Complete=1

 

People are getting $40+ for a single 25,000 dinar note. Amazing

 

Oh crud  This is post 666 for this thread. 

$50 per 25000 dinar check out what going on in the uk with the dinar on ebay. people are paying anything from £50 to the highest I have seen £170. The dinar on uk ebay is skyrocketting

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I read KristiD's Latest on Breitling.  He is a pumper and ignorant one at that. 

The CBI IS ON SWIFT.  Oil money is posted to Iraqi accounts in London or New York .  Then when An Iraqi importer wants to buy goods a SWIFT transfer moves the dollars between accounts.. There is no other way to do it efficiently.  

Then he says everybody will want dollars. Not true , they may want Euros , Swiss Franks or even yen depending on where they trade.  BUT THEN what happens to the IQD ??? Indirectly he is saying there will not be a DEMAND for IQD. I do think he has that one correct , But I dont think he meant it to come out that way.

That being the case no one would buy IQD in the international market at any exchange rate , they would opt  to KEEP their DOLLARS

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

I think a lot of Dinarians think that they actually INVESTED in Iraq by buying IQD and Iraq OWES them a profit. Actually they caused harm to the Iraqi economy. The dinar held in shoeboxes etc. outside of Iraq messed up the banking system. They can't go International without taking the risk that all that IQD will flood back in causing an oversupply ( i.e. a deflation ) that they dont need.  WHY would they want to buy any back???  A carefully managed redenomination is needed but they cant afford it now, .It would be a scramble to get your IQD back to Iraq. It would be a great risk for a bank or dealer to get involved.  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



  • Testing the Rocker Badge!

  • Live Exchange Rate

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.