Where's the money going to come from???/

[rockfl9]

THIS is a serious  question for any  "investment" . To become a profit there MUST be a buyer willing to pay more for the item. Banks dont BUY foreign currencies they are only an agent for the buyer. Typically the countries central bank is the buyer of last resort, BUT we know the CBI cannot repurchase IQD at even the quoted rate today.  It would be a giant leap of faith for someone to buy IQD at 1/10 of a cent expecting a profit.

 

[rockfl9]

The Iqd IS PEGGED to the usd.. Currently aprox 65M USD to support a .00086/USD rate .. A one cent RV would require aprox 650 M USD in the reserves.. Eight times the TOTAL annual oil revenues... It is IMPOSSIBLE.  

Could they come off the peg. I dont think so .   The PEG is GOI fiscal policy , the CBI is not in control.  Plus the SBA give the IMF some control here also..  

When a currency is allowed to FLOAT the central bank looses control of the rate and it usually goes DOWN and looses instability..  The GOI needs  STABILITY.

 

[EverCurious452]

4 hours ago, rockfl9 said:

The Iqd IS PEGGED to the usd.. Currently aprox 65M USD to support system" rel="">support a .00086/USD rate .. A one cent RV would require aprox 650 M USD in the reserves.. Eight times the TOTAL annual oil revenues... It is IMPOSSIBLE.  

Could they come off the peg. I dont think so .   The PEG is GOI fiscal policy , the CBI is not in control.  Plus the SBA give the IMF some control here also..  

When a currency is allowed to FLOAT the central bank looses control of the rate and it usually goes DOWN and looses instability..  The GOI needs  STABILITY.

 

You meant 65 Billion and 650 Billion (not 65 Million and 650 Million).    There has been quite enough arithmetic sloppiness upstairs trying to compute how much 69 tons of gold is worth. 

hundreds, thousands, millions, billions, trillions.  These things make a difference.

[rockfl9]

On 3/13/2019 at 9:04 PM, EverCurious452 said:

You meant 65 Billion and 650 Billion (not 65 Million and 650 Million).    There has been quite enough arithmetic sloppiness upstairs trying to compute how much 69 tons of gold is worth. 

hundreds, thousands, millions, billions, trillions.  These things make a difference.

U R correct EC.. I must have had my LOPSTER hat on .. Always LOPPING 3 zeros

Yes, some of them think that the gold is not included in the reserve value.  When You can look at the CBI annual report itshows the gold as being included inthe reserves total. It is about 5% of the reserves. Some wild explanation of how to compute the value of a tonne of gold!

 

 

[rockfl9]

The spot price of gold today  is $1300  not $2000..  makes a tonne worth about $45 Mil.   

[rockfl9]

Anyone have the answer?  

Did anyone RESEARCH this ?  Hmmmmm   I guess not . 

 

[rockfl9]

I guess I will have to help with this.

Of course the GURUs are telling you that when the RV happens the BANKS will all fall all al over them selves to get your dinar .  Call centers , back room screens and all that.. They will expect your business  , but dont let your dinar out of sight till you see the dollars .

Well forget that .  When a bank sells a foreign currency IT never expects to see it again. You were expected to travel and leave it there not bring it back.  Taking in an illliquid currency is messy/risky business.   A legitimate bank wont do it at any price.

The FOREX market is an all electronic market.  There is no provision to buy/sell physical currency in that market.  Physical currency is handled by  agencies created to do that .  The agency works with the central bank of the originating country.  Although if the markup is big enough clandestine operators ( read IQD dealers ) will spring up.  PRAY that there never is a major change up or down in the exchange rate because if there is the dealer system will fold up over night .  Well maybe not , this unscrupulous bunch may find a way to make money on the way out of business. 

[SocalDinar]

On 3/15/2019 at 11:49 AM, rockfl9 said:

The spot price of gold today  is $1300  not $2000..  makes a tonne worth about $45 Mil.   

Hey Rock Hows it going?

Gold and silver are a good buy these days .I just bought quite a bit of silver. I love the way precious metals feel in your hands . Can’t get the same feeling from notes of any kind . Just picked up a new claim on the Yuba river near Downieville. Bought it off an old timer I helped out up there last year. The guy had a flat and I stopped to change it for him . I was up on my clubs claim . We talked and he said I could work his claim if I wanted. Thanked him and we exchanged numbers. He called me up a few months ago and asked if I wanted his claim. !!!! Heck ya. Met him last weekend and we did the paperwork . Picked it up for $300 and a case of beer. Karma ? The claims up there all go for $5,000 and up.

River was to high to work but I’ll be back in the summer.  I have accumulated quite a bit of gold since I got into this hobby. I can’t see selling it . Worked to hard for it.

My kids will find it someday...  

[rockfl9]

Hi SD.  Tks for the visit... Looks like you are having fun.. When you buy a claim do you actually own land or just mineral rights ? Is what you have just dust or have you found real nuggets? I have some gold/silver coins not a serious hobby though. 

I am surprised that the dinar RV thing hasn't crashed by now .  I just have to hang in to see how it ends. 

Drop in ( a pun ) to the tank any time. 

[SocalDinar]

Good Morning Rock.

All my claims are on Federal lands managed by BLM. I only own the mineral rights pertaining to my claim. My claims are all Placer deposit type claims. I don't have any lode claims ( hard rock deposits )  I always file a small miners waiver so they cost me approx $100 a year for each claim. This includes the BLM fees and the county recorder fees.  Done pretty good at my claim in the Chuckawalla Mountains. Hit some good placer deposits. Its all hit and miss. Its pretty remote so the wife does not like me digging there by myself. Nearest paved road is 16 miles away.  Not sure how this would assay but i can produce 3 grams per 20 buckets processed. I am not allowed to use heavy equipment without special permits so thios is all done with a pick and a shovel..

 

LOL i found another 1/4 million dinar in an envelope i had stashed away the other day. So I have a whooping 350,000 dinar to my name..

Ill keep 100,000 and most likely sell the rest on Ebay.  Plenty of buyers of dinar on ebay

Here is a link. Everything shown in green has actually sold,  https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=iraqi+dinar&_sacat=0&rt=nc&LH_Complete=1

[EverCurious452]

4 hours ago, SocalDinar said:

Not sure how this would assay but i can produce 3 grams per 20 buckets processed

Assuming a bucket is around 1 cubic foot (so you could lift many of them during the day) that seems pretty good SD. (not that I know anything about this, I compare only to google claiming that 1 gram per cubic yard per hour is excellent for an individual Placer miner).  Would you say overall that your hobby is paying for itself?  (of course the point of hobbies is enjoyment but making a little money is always nice!)..

[rockfl9]

On ‎3‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 4:23 PM, rockfl9 said:

The Iqd IS PEGGED to the usd.. Currently aprox 65M USD to support system" rel="">support a .00086/USD rate .. A one cent RV would require aprox 650 M USD in the reserves.. Eight times the TOTAL annual oil revenues... It is IMPOSSIBLE.  

Could they come off the peg. I dont think so .   The PEG is GOI fiscal policy , the CBI is not in control.  Plus the SBA give the IMF some control here also..  

When a currency is allowed to FLOAT the central bank looses control of the rate and it usually goes DOWN and looses instability..  The GOI needs  STABILITY.

 

What I am trying to get at here is that you cant have the best of both worlds.  Stay on a peg for stability and to increase the rate they MUST add to the reserves , but they cant afford to.  Go off the peg and float they loose control of the rate , generally it will go down in value.

Iraq will stay on the peg ... The CBIs main revenue comes from commissions from the  "auctions"  which right now are minimal due to the low price of oil.

[rockfl9]

On 12/31/2016 at 2:26 PM, EverCurious452 said:

The US can print dollars and Iraq can print IQD, but Iraq can NOT print dollars and the US is not going to give Iraq 80T dollars (which is more money then exists on the entire planet of all currencies combined).  So the question that Rock continues to ask and no one can answer is where does IRAQ get the dollars to finance an RV?  The answer in my view is that they can not which is why the RV is and always has been a myth.

THe UST issues t-bills , notes and bonds when it produces the extra dollars .  When those are sold the buyer remits USD back to the treasury so that the US Gov can pay its bills .  But it assumes the debt.  Unfortunately the only income the US gov has is mainly taxes. 

The Iraq situation is a little different, because it is in the oil business.  They could issue dinar bonds and if they could sell them they could finance more projects.   

[SocalDinar]

On 5/25/2019 at 11:50 AM, EverCurious452 said:

Assuming a bucket is around 1 cubic foot (so you could lift many of them during the day) that seems pretty good SD. (not that I know anything about this, I compare only to google claiming that 1 gram per cubic yard per hour is excellent for an individual Placer miner).  Would you say overall that your hobby is paying for itself?  (of course the point of hobbies is enjoyment but making a little money is always nice!)..

If you factor in the gas and supplies it takes me to get to the claim I may break even LOL. But its like a piggy bank. The gold i collect goes into jars and just sits there. I have not sold any of the gold i mine. I work to hard for it LOL. My wife does have a few pieces of jewelry we have made from the larger nuggets. Like you said its a hobby and mostly for the fun of it.  If you are ever in SoCal you can tag along.... Most people I invite come and dig once..... HAHA Its hard work. The caliche is like digging into concrete sometimes.

[rockfl9]

I believe most there is a pile of money available to exchange for IQD just waiting for the CBI to set the RV rate !  And the FOREX will follow.  WELL that's not the case. The International rate for a currency exchange is set by supply and demand PERIOD. The FOREX is just a reporting service it doesnt set a rate.  When someone DEMANDS a currency a deal is made at some price and that price is reported on the FOREX ticker.  If there is NO demand there will not be a sale .. AND there will not be a rate on FOREX.  Even IF there was a single trade at some price that trade will only setup the next OFFER to sell ,  and we need to see continued DEMAND .  IT IS A BUYERS MARKET.

The CBI could set a 10 cent rate but that would only be valid in IRAQ.  IT cant force that rate on the outside world UNLESS it also was willing to BUY at that rate on the outside.  BUT WHY would it give up any of its hard money reserves to buy its own currency when it could just print more?

Here is the kicker ...  The central bank is usually the buyer of last resort for its currency...BUT usually at a ridiculously    low  price . 

 

[rockfl9]

In order for the IQD to show up on FOREX at $.10  someone ( A REAL PERSON would have to pony up $100,000  ).. I don't know WHO would do that ?  WHO would be crazy enough to give up $100K of the worlds safest currency to buy a million IQD probably the riskiest currency !

 

[rockfl9]

As part of the IMF SBA agreement the CBI/MOF are reviewed regularly and by its own rules is audited annually , There is no second set of books as a few(?) dinarians spout.  The IMF is a credible organization   and would not report inaccurate information .

There ARE 40 Trillion IQD in CIRCULATION TODAY.  None has been collected and destroyed to reduce that amount!  It is true that some is outside of Iraq (DUH ).    The IQD is a PEGGED currency and the CBI is holding the peg at .00086 USD (or equivalent ) in hard reserves. Since Iraq's base income is in Petrodollars that rate is used to establish a budget.

THERE is NO plan to arbitrarily change the value of the IQD as many are counting on .. To increase the value requires a increase in the banks reserves or the CBI will FAIL.  The GOI cannot allow that to happen.

There is speculation that the world financial community will begin to allow ASSET BASED exchange rates.  Highly unlikely as the future value of any such assets is difficult to predict even into the next year.  AS for other natural resources the bicracky irackes  might have ???  WE certainly would have read about them by now - THERE aren't any. 

[rockfl9]

On 2/12/2019 at 2:21 PM, rockfl9 said:

THIS is a serious  question for any  "investment" . To become a profit there MUST be a buyer willing to pay more for the item. Banks dont BUY foreign currencies they are only an agent for the buyer. Typically the countries central bank is the buyer of last resort, BUT we know the CBI cannot repurchase IQD at even the quoted rate today.  It would be a giant leap of faith for someone to buy IQD at 1/10 of a cent expecting a profit.

 

FOREX is only a reporting service for the Foreign Exchange ( FX) market made up of most of the international dealers . These dealers DO NOT expect to make money by buying and holding a currency . They buy and sell to customers who may expect to profit by holding ( like Dinarians ) They collect a fee for the service much like the dinar dealers mark-up.  The IQD does not show up on FOREX because There is no primary dealer . Primary dealers in any one currency will have an account to exchange the currency with the central bank that issues the currency.   The CBI does not allow Iqd in or out of Iraq , that is their monitary policy. Could that change , possibly but not likely in the near term. Could the CBI LOP and not  change the policy .  Most likely.  THINK . Would  the CBI pay out for old dinar only to have to destroy it !!!!

NO !  That would be ridiculous . They would exchange in country long enough to use up existing IQD  and begin using the new valued at .

$0.86 +/-. But until they develop viable trade in something other than oil there is noneed to allow any dinar out of the country. 

P.S. I know in the past dinarins thought they were really helping Iraq by "investing "  in IQD . In reality they actually only made a lot of their currency unproductive  , increasing  CBIs costs of operation.

 

[caz1104]

THERE HE GOES AGAIN......TALKING TO HIMSELF - SMH

[rockfl9]

Hi Caz

Just thinking out loud. Hoping Diarias will join in. Someone must know where ALL those dollars are going to come from ????

Even the great Caz doesnt know or he would certainly wow us with

 his great experience in FX. Come on Caz, dont be shy LOL .

[rockfl9]

On 2/12/2019 at 2:21 PM, rockfl9 said:

THIS is a serious  question for any  "investment" . To become a profit there MUST be a buyer willing to pay more for the item. Banks dont BUY foreign currencies they are only an agent for the buyer. Typically the countries central bank is the buyer of last resort, BUT we know the CBI cannot repurchase IQD at even the quoted rate today.  It would be a giant leap of faith for someone to buy IQD at 1/10 of a cent expecting a profit.

It boils down to this. IF the dinar were to increase in value there would have to be a BUYER that thinks the value would go even higher  before  making an offer to purchase.  A bank would not touch your dinar unless it knew there was such an offer on the books.  Iraqs financial status 

has been made more unstable due to lower oil revenues over the last 8 years and is not likely to get better. Oil revenues will remain flat.

The GURUs keep spinning the line that an RV will solve that problem .   That is WRONG.  Iraq Converts dollars to dinar at a current rate of  1$ to 1200 dinar and spends it all. HOW would they survive if the rate suddenly became  1$ to 10 ( 10 cents ) .    That leaves them with 100 times LESS dinar to spend!   The GURU logic is that it would be a more valuable dinar and all wages and prices would adjust .  That  would NOT happen overnight ... In the mean time the GOI/CBI  would go broke.

Bottom line is that it would not happen.  No one   would buy the currency of a failed country.  The IQD would really become TP.  

[rockfl9]

OK let's try this. At this time the GOI/CBI DOES NOT OFFICIALLY buy or sell IQD outside of Iraq !  (How the dealers get clean new dinar is one form of the corruption we keep reading about , that is some Iraqi(s) are violating the regulations and trading IQD for dollars .) . So one step in the RV process would be for the GOI to make the IQD legitimately tradeable worldwide. Next the CBI would have to buy and sell thru some FX dealer. A FX dealer would not get involved unless it could at least put IQD back into the CBI at least as a last resort.

NOW , the CBI  will have to support an RV by buying and selling IQD at some value higher than the current rate. The risk to the CBI is that buys might exceed sells resulting in depleting the reserves. I dont think the MOF would allow that.  Trading would be suspended , the dealers would get stuck with a loss. 

[EverCurious452]

From upstairs: "The IQD can’t stay at its current rate for ever so with that in mind even if it moves upwards a few pips to a cent we have improved on our initial investment.. "

 

You have to wonder if people understand what they bought.  Moving from 0.00084 USD per 1 IQD to 1penny (0.01 USD) per 1 IQD would be 11.9x or a 1,190% increase and would over subscript the CBI's reserves by at least a factor of 10 causing them to run out of those reserves in a flash and the banking system would collapse.  Which is why of course it can not happen.

 

[rockfl9]

Getting back to IQD. WHY is there no one who can answer the question.?  What if Iraq DOES somehow try to increase the exchange rate. BUT there is NO ONE willing to buy at that price !!  Then there is no way for you to exchange your dinar at that price. 

Will the dealers offer to buy at anywhere near that price ?  GET REAL!!  The dealers are in business today because they make a profit by buying LOW and selling HIGH ... AND they have plenty of inventory to get rid of first , if they could. 

So If there ever is a rate increase just enjoy the paper profit in that shoe box.

[EverCurious452]

On 12/23/2019 at 12:33 PM, rockfl9 said:

Getting back to IQD. WHY is there no one who can answer the question.?  What if Iraq DOES somehow try to increase the exchange rate. BUT there is NO ONE willing to buy at that price !!  Then there is no way for you to exchange your dinar at that price. 

True enough.  But my quibble is that you make it sound like the rate the CBI sets and the rate they pay are different things.   When the CBI sets a rate all they are announcing is the rate that THEY will pay.  So if the rate were to go up the one willing to buy at that price is by definition the CBI, which means everyone that buys from them (downstream banks and the dealers they sell to etc) will support that rate as well.   Which of course is why the rate can not move significantly higher than its present value.   It is limited by what the CBI is able to pay, i.e. roughly the CBIs foreign reserves divided by Iraq's M1 which is about where the rate is today.