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Stability of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and some currencies at closing


yota691
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2 hours ago, yota691 said:

And the purchase price of the dollar is 1190 dinars, or 119 thousand dinars, for one hundred dollars, and this price is the lowest recorded by the currency markets for years in Iraq

 

Yota, You're The Best, GM, AND The Best Of Your Day To You!!! :tiphat:

 

In The Mean Time....................................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

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economic

Expert shows the reasons for the fall of the dollar in the domestic market

08:59 - 01/05/2018

0

%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1-1-696x435.jpg

  

Information / Baghdad ..

The economic expert, Majid al-Suri, on Tuesday, the decline in the dollar exchange rate in the Iraqi domestic market to the financial abundance of the sale of oil and the high rise in world oil prices, indicating that the exchange rates of the dollar, oil and gold is not fixed and affected by many of the security and political factors.

"The dollar is witnessing a decline in the exchange rate than before, as it coincided with the rise in oil prices in world markets," said the picture in a statement to the information, "noting that" the central bank controls the exchange rate of the dollar, especially in light of the high price of a barrel of oil for more From $ 70, which provides a large amount of dollars at the Central Bank. "

He explained that "the large offer of the dollar by the Central Bank led to a decline in the exchange rate of the dollar from the former, where the bank has a large reserve of the dollar, which leads to a large offer in order to achieve balance between the Iraqi and foreign currencies.

"The exchange rate of the dollar, oil and gold is also unstable and affected by many of the security and political factors in the country, in addition to the external factors that are subject to the price of gold, according to the rise and fall of the rest of the currencies against the dollar and by country of origin or source of gold. Ending / 25 n

http://www.almaalomah.com/2018/05/01/305557/

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50 minutes ago, Butifldrm said:

"The exchange rate of the dollar, oil and gold is also unstable and affected by many of the security and political factors in the country, in addition to the external factors that are subject to the price of gold, according to the rise and fall of the rest of the currencies against the dollar and by country of origin or source of gold. Ending / 25 n

 

From the article portion quoted here, at least these appear to affect the "value" or exchange rate of the Iraqi Dinar vs. the US Dollar:

  • exchange rate of the dollar is unstable
  • oil is unstable
  • gold is unstable
  • many of the security factors in the country
  • many of the political factors in the country
  • external factors that are subject to the price of gold
  • rise and fall of the rest of the currencies against the dollar and by country of origin or source of gold

So, in my opinion, there are currently highly complex real time algorithms with multiple factors internal and external to Iraq to determine the ACTUAL value of the Iraqi Dinar. It is unlikely that anyone, except for a very select few individuals, knows what all the factors are or their weights in the highly complex real time algorithms. The "program rate" could be a simply multiplier of 1/1,000th (one one thousandth) or something more complex and integrated into the algorithm. If, however, this is a simple multiplier, "removing the 000s" could be moving the multiplied from 0.001 to 1. In this case, nominally 1,200 IQD = 1 USD becomes 1.2 IQD = 1 USD.

 

If, indeed, there are highly complex real time algorithms with multiple factors internal and external to Iraq to determine the ACTUAL value of the Iraqi Dinar, there may be specific factors (some key) that HAVE to reach above a corresponding "GO" value while there also may be specific factors (some key) that HAVE to go below a corresponding "NO GO" threshold.

 

Here are some fairly recent articles with highlights:

 

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/251068-the-recovery-of-the-iraqi-dinar/&do=findComment&comment=1887701

 

He pointed out that "the coming period will witness a decline in the rate of inflation in Iraq after controlling the exchange rate and the abolition of the marginal price of the dollar and make it equal to the official price and this measure by the Central Bank supports the purchasing power of citizens and provides an important indicator for businessmen through the stability of the working environment."

He pointed out that "the dollar exchange rate is considered at the current stage is the best because it has become an ideal price and gives confidence to investors in maintaining the return of their activities."

 

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/251068-the-recovery-of-the-iraqi-dinar/&do=findComment&comment=1887313

 

The governor of the Central Bank Ali al-Alaq, that the Iraqi payment system did not witness a violation or a problem because it is considered one of the best systems in the world.

 

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/253173-is it-time-to-delete-three-zeros-from-the-currency/&do=findComment&comment=1882371

 

Ahmed Hassan: Said the director of the Rafidain Bank in Dhi Qar Hussein Abbadi in a televised interview broadcast by the local Nasiriyah that the introduction of ATM in the markets and banks are subject to the implementation of the decision to delete zeros from the Iraqi currency, pointing out that the Iraqi currency suffers from large inflation at the present time.

 

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/253173-is it-time-to-delete-three-zeros-from-the-currency/

 

The governor of the Central Bank, Ali al-Alaq, in a discussion session with the editors of a number of Iraqi media, including "Economy News", "The subject of deleting zeros from the currency is ready, but it needs an environment suitable to apply," noting that " To prevent manipulation and fraud by the owners of weak souls. "

 

I especially like the last statement. The "environment suitable to apply" and "To prevent manipulation and fraud by the owners of weak souls" could mean some or all of the following with others that may be needed:

  • Fully implement Anti Money Laundering protocols
  • Fully remove Terrorism Financing
  • Fully remove the significantly corrupt

The election results may be a key factor in preventing "manipulation and fraud by the owners of weak souls". I would have thought going from a "closed economy" with a program IQD rate to an "open economy" with a non program and international true value IQD rate would substantially if not completely eliminate the first two of the three noted here. Apparently, the anti corruption campaign is still a VERY significant factor so in the next couple weeks, even before Ramadan starts on May 15, there may be a fever pitch on the uptake of all the 1,000 or corrupt politicians to include ole Nouri al-Maliki himself. Once the key arrest warrants have actually been served, the "environment suitable to apply" may then have been reached.

 

Conjecture on my part for all of this so just my thoughts, opinion, and :twocents:

 

ARE WE READY, YET?????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

In The Mean Time...........................................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

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On 4/29/2018 at 6:28 AM, gregp said:

GM, Yota & Vets,

 

The rate seems to be hovering at one level.  I’m thinking they’ve arrived at where they want the rate to be, before removing the zeros. Fingers crossed.  

 

Thanks.

maybe 120,000 is target given the rate on the temporary CBI site being 1.2

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20 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

 

 multiple factors internal and external to Iraq to determine the ACTUAL value of the Iraqi Dinar. It is unlikely that anyone, except for a very select few individuals, knows what all the factors are or their weights in the highly complex real time algorithms. 

I agree. 

 

As someone who trades options and considers probablilities on everything... I just can't "figure out" this pegged dinar! The US  pegged it, yet Iraq still does business. My opinion...it should rise with a float naturally the better their economy does if it hits the forex quietly, but Iraq seems to be doing ok figuring out the economics without sectarian and corruption intrusion. Do they need the revaluation? Just can't make that work in my head. 

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1 hour ago, justchecking123 said:

"the bank controls the exchange rate of the dollar, especially in light of the high price of a barrel of oil for more From $ 70, which provides a large amount of dollars."

Will oil shoot up soon? Time will tell go RV 1:1

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3 minutes ago, climber7 said:

So, can someone give a target number where when the dollar reaches a certain low against the dinar--they HAVE to RV because the current way won't work anymore? 

 

Nobody can give you that number. Nobody knows. 

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5 minutes ago, climber7 said:

So, can someone give a target number where when the dollar reaches a certain low against the dinar--they HAVE to RV because the current way won't work anymore? 

Unfortunately they can go like this indefinitely. Until they initiate a currency law and stop using the dollar for government operations outside the country; they don't have to change anything. Just use the oil money.

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51 minutes ago, Integrativedoc said:

Unfortunately they can go like this indefinitely. Until they initiate a currency law and stop using the dollar for government operations outside the country; they don't have to change anything. Just use the oil money.

 

They COULD, but do they want their citizens using the dollar forever?  

Or do they want to be proud of their own currency, which will finally have worth?

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58 minutes ago, Integrativedoc said:

Unfortunately they can go like this indefinitely. Until they initiate a currency law and stop using the dollar for government operations outside the country; they don't have to change anything. Just use the oil money.

True that...

 

Oil money is monolithic, no matter how/where it comes from.

 

Interesting time for dinar investors.

 

Curious how it will all play out.

 

 

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1 hour ago, justchecking123 said:

I agree. 

 

As someone who trades options and considers probablilities on everything... I just can't "figure out" this pegged dinar! The US  pegged it, yet Iraq still does business. My opinion...it should rise with a float naturally the better their economy does if it hits the forex quietly, but Iraq seems to be doing ok figuring out the economics without sectarian and corruption intrusion. Do they need the revaluation? Just can't make that work in my head. 

 

Thank You for Your comments, JustChecking123, AND The Best Of Your Day To You!!! :tiphat:

 

My opinion is the Iraqi Dinar coming off the program rate will need to be immediately reinstated or revalued going to an “open economy” with a true value international rate to give the necessary reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment going with the magnitude to sustain geopolitical and social factors internally, regionally, and internationally. I could be wrong but waiting on the economy to get going and support the reinstatement or revalue float could be problematic and ineffective. My opinion is the reinstatement or revalue would need to occur first to integrate Iraq internationally economically and avoid the risks that would promote Sectarian Strife and Civil War. These two factors, to me, would inhibit reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. So, I suspect injecting the Iraqis with the Opiate Of Prosperity will go a long ways to providing the environment for reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. Also, having a low Iraqi Dinar rate would pump A LOT of Iraqi Dinars out of Iraq and would likely hold down the exchange rate significantly since a far higher value later would bankrupt Iraq or other countries that have done business with Iraq on the low Iraqi Dinar rate for the initial reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. I can’t imagine the reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment trickling due to internal, regional, and international economic interests.

 

The one piece that may be taken care of up to, at, or shortly after the May 12 Iranian Nuclear decision is the Iranian influences and presence in Iraq. Ole Donald and Ole Benji may have some sure plans to catapult these Iranian miscreants from Iraq. The Kurdistan region apparently has enjoyed some amicable relations with Israel so I suspect any monetary, military hardware, or militias from Iran into and through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon with, possibly, Yemen are soon to be “truncated” at Iran. I do not know or can speculate what the plan is but I find it EXTREMELY interesting the Iranian Nuclear Deal decision AND the Iraqi elections occur on THE EXACT SAME date. Wuz up with THAT???!!!

 

All this to say the “program rate” factor may be a specific decision to immediately readjust with the “environment suitable to apply”. I suspect there could be an initial float once the Iraqi Dinar goes international under and “open economy” but I think that would occur in a matter of seconds, minutes, and at most hours to prevent computer generated speculation that could force the Iraqi Dinar to a much lower value. However, after the reinstatement or revalue, I suspect the Iraqi Dinar value will fluctuate over time so, for example, the immediate rate could be 1.12 Iraqi Dinar to 1 USD but may go somewhat stronger but I can’t imagine it increasing by more than 25% or so in the near term. I have no idea where the Iraqi Dinar will reinstate or revalue so any value (0.10, 0.86, 1.12, 3.22, 3.86 or any other value) is likely dependent on, what I believe to be, highly advanced and integrated multi factor and multi weighted algorithms. If true, I think all the testing has been done and a partial but significant reason for Ali al-Alaaq to state, “the Iraqi payment system did not witness a violation or a problem because it is considered one of the best systems in the world”.

 

With all the announcements about ISO requirement in place, international protocol implementation, and training of bank personnel on a variety of different topics fully supports the integrity for international implmentation by the flip of a switch. I suspect there are possibly election, corruption, and some regional issues to make the reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment sustainable. A major credit agency may publish an investment worthy credit rating for Iraq that seems to be low now due to internal corruption in Iraq

 

A LOT of moving parts but I do think there are, and really have to be, parts needing to line up NOW to get the show on the road and not experience erosion to date of factors that have gotten to this point. So, with corruption removed through the elections and/or arrest warrants served, there may be a significant increase to an acceptable level for foreign investment to get going with an investment worthy international credit rating.

 

Well, OK, a lot more of my conjecture, speculation, thoughts, opinions, and :twocents:

 

In The Mean Time...............................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

Edited by Synopsis
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21 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

 

Thank You for Your comments, JustChecking123, AND The Best Of Your Day To You!!! :tiphat:

 

My opinion is the Iraqi Dinar coming off the program rate will need to be immediately reinstated or revalued going to an “open economy” with a true value international rate to give the necessary reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment going with the magnitude to sustain geopolitical and social factors internally, regionally, and internationally. I could be wrong but waiting on the economy to get going and support system" rel="">support the reinstatement or revalue float could be problematic and ineffective. My opinion is the reinstatement or revalue would need to occur first to integrate Iraq internationally economically and avoid the risks that would promote Sectarian Strife and Civil War. These two factors, to me, would inhibit reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. So, I suspect injecting the Iraqis with the Opiate Of Prosperity will go a long ways to providing the environment for reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. Also, having a low Iraqi Dinar rate would pump A LOT of Iraqi Dinars out of Iraq and would likely hold down the exchange rate significantly since a far higher value later would bankrupt Iraq or other countries that have done business with Iraq on the low Iraqi Dinar rate for the initial reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. I can’t imagine the reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment trickling due to internal, regional, and international economic interests.

 

The one piece that may be taken care of up to, at, or shortly after the May 12 Iranian Nuclear decision is the Iranian influences and presence in Iraq. Ole Donald and Ole Benji may have some sure plans to catapult these Iranian miscreants from Iraq. The Kurdistan region apparently has enjoyed some amicable relations with Israel so I suspect any monetary, military hardware, or militias from Iran into and through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon with, possibly, Yemen are soon to be “truncated” at Iran. I do not know or can speculate what the plan is but I find it EXTREMELY interesting the Iranian Nuclear Deal decision AND the Iraqi elections occur on THE EXACT SAME date. Wuz up with THAT???!!!

 

All this to say the “program rate” factor may be a specific decision to immediately readjust with the “environment suitable to apply”. I suspect there could be an initial float once the Iraqi Dinar goes international under and “open economy” but I think that would occur in a matter of seconds, minutes, and at most hours to prevent computer generated speculation that could force the Iraqi Dinar to a much lower value. However, after the reinstatement or revalue, I suspect the Iraqi Dinar value will fluctuate over time so, for example, the immediate rate could be 1.12 Iraqi Dinar to 1 USD but may go somewhat stronger but I can’t imagine it increasing by more than 25% or so in the near term. I have no idea where the Iraqi Dinar will reinstate or revalue so any value (0.10, 0.86, 1.12, 3.22, 3.86 or any other value) is likely dependent on, what I believe to be, highly advanced and integrated multi factor and multi weighted algorithms. If true, I think all the testing has been done and a partial but significant reason for Ali al-Alaaq to state, “the Iraqi payment system did not witness a violation or a problem because it is considered one of the best systems in the world”.

 

With all the announcements about ISO requirement in place, international protocol implementation, and training of bank personnel on a variety of different topics fully supports the integrity for international implmentation by the flip of a switch. I suspect there are possibly election, corruption, and some regional issues to make the reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment sustainable. A major credit agency may publish an investment worthy credit rating for Iraq that seems to be low now due to internal corruption in Iraq

 

A LOT of moving parts but I do think there are, and really have to be, parts needing to line up NOW to get the show on the road and not experience erosion to date of factors that have gotten to this point. So, with corruption removed through the elections and/or arrest warrants served, there may be a significant increase to an acceptable level for foreign investment to get going with an investment worthy international credit rating.

 

Well, OK, a lot more of my conjecture, speculation, thoughts, opinions, and :twocents:

 

In The Mean Time...............................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

 

Holy Cow!  I really wanted to say holy something else!

This, and your previous post above, are quite the dissertation.

What a brilliant person you are, Synopsis.

Do you have a PhD?

Can I ask what field you work in?

I used to think I was smart.  Sigh.  Not so much, anymore.  😂

 

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"I could be wrong but waiting on the economy to get going and support system" rel="">support the reinstatement or revalue float could be problematic and ineffective. My opinion is the reinstatement or revalue would need to occur first to integrate Iraq internationally economically and avoid the risks that would promote Sectarian Strife and Civil War. These two factors, to me, would inhibit reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. So, I suspect injecting the Iraqis with the Opiate Of Prosperity will go a long ways to providing the environment for reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. Also, having a low Iraqi Dinar rate would pump A LOT of Iraqi Dinars out of Iraq and would likely hold down the exchange rate significantly since a far higher value later would bankrupt Iraq or other countries that have done business with Iraq on the low Iraqi Dinar rate for the initial reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment. I can’t imagine the reconstruction, economic development, AND foreign investment trickling due to internal, regional, and international economic interests."

 

TAKE THAT, KAPERONI.

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1 hour ago, climber7 said:

So, can someone give a target number where when the dollar reaches a certain low against the dinar--they HAVE to RV because the current way won't work anymore? 

 

IMO here's the long and short of it all, no hocus pocus secret squirrel guru speak double talk ...... 

 

The CBI is a member of the IMF Charter under what is known as “transitional arrangements” or Article XIV. The objective under this charter is meant to be temporary as soon as the CBI is prepared to accept the obligations of Article VIII, they should avail itself of the transitional arrangements. In other words, Article XIV is meant to train and learn and prepare for the obligations under Article VIII.
Article VIII is very important. And Article VIII is what will make the dinar internationally recognized, convertible and tradable worldwide. The CBI simply cannot transition to Article VIII until they have demonstrated to the IMF that they can comply under the Article VIII guidelines (they have to show the IMF that they can meet the conditions of Article VIII before they will get Article VIII). So the bottom line is, until the CBI can show the IMF that they can follow the rules the IMF will not accept them into Article VIII.

 

The imf requires the spread between the official and the market rate to be within 2% and with very little fluctuation within that 2% for a period of at least 90 days and until they comply they will never be allowed to move to imf article 8 . 

the CBI must sustain this rate for the entire 3 month period with limited fluctuation as the IMF states.. “The exchange rate may fluctuate within narrow margins of less than ±1 percent around a central rate, or the maximum and minimum values of the exchange rate may remain within a narrow margin of 2 percent for at least three months , i'll end this to say there is more than meets the eye and what i typed in this post and now this for ur reading pleasure 🤔 :  cheers dv 

 

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13217.pdf

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues38/ei38.pdf

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I used to think I was smart.  Sigh.  Not so much, anymore.  😂

 

Albert Ehinstien is one of the greatest minds ever. He once watched a janitor cleaning off years old dirt from a floor and asked what he was using ( this part I don't remember ) when told, he answered that was Interesting as he never would of thought of that.

 

Point being, we are all smart in our own right Floridian. Never count yourself or others out. Everyone has something they can teach others.

 

  pp

Edited by pokerplayer
Spelling. What else ?
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2 minutes ago, pokerplayer said:

I used to think I was smart.  Sigh.  Not so much, anymore.  😂

 

Albert Ehinstien is one of the greatest minds ever. He once watched a janitor cleaning off years old dirt from a floor what he was using ( this part I don't remember ) when told he answered the was Interesting as he never would of thought of thath.

 

Point being, we are all smart in our own right Floridian. Never count yourself or others out. Everyone has something they can teach others.

 

  pp

 

No, no, I still think I'm smart.  Don't worry.  LOL LOL

But not THAT kind of smart, like Synopsis.

I am so impressed by that level of deep thinking.  

For sure, I can't do that.  😊

 

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17 minutes ago, 3n1 said:

 

IMO here's the long and short of it all, no hocus pocus secret squirrel guru speak double talk ...... 

 

The CBI is a member of the IMF Charter under what is known as “transitional arrangements” or Article XIV. The objective under this charter is meant to be temporary as soon as the CBI is prepared to accept the obligations of Article VIII, they should avail itself of the transitional arrangements. In other words, Article XIV is meant to train and learn and prepare for the obligations under Article VIII.
Article VIII is very important. And Article VIII is what will make the dinar internationally recognized, convertible and tradable worldwide. The CBI simply cannot transition to Article VIII until they have demonstrated to the IMF that they can comply under the Article VIII guidelines (they have to show the IMF that they can meet the conditions of Article VIII before they will get Article VIII). So the bottom line is, until the CBI can show the IMF that they can follow the rules the IMF will not accept them into Article VIII.

 

The imf requires the spread between the official and the market rate to be within 2% and with very little fluctuation within that 2% for a period of at least 90 days and until they comply they will never be allowed to move to imf article 8 . 

the CBI must sustain this rate for the entire 3 month period with limited fluctuation as the IMF states.. “The exchange rate may fluctuate within narrow margins of less than ±1 percent around a central rate, or the maximum and minimum values of the exchange rate may remain within a narrow margin of 2 percent for at least three months , i'll end this to say there is more than meets the eye and what i typed in this post and now this for ur reading pleasure 🤔 :  cheers dv 

 

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13217.pdf

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues38/ei38.pdf

 

Thank you for stating it plainly so that all can understand, 3n1.  😊

The way I understand this is that after meeting the 90 day requirement, Iraq has to write a letter to the IMF saying they ACCEPT Article VIII.

I take this to mean they have to state they will abide by the rules under Article VIII.  

And then, their currency can go international.

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3 minutes ago, pokerplayer said:

Point being, we are all smart in our own right Floridian. Never count yourself or others out. Everyone has something they can teach others.

 

HEAR, HEAR!!! AND The Best Of Your Day To You, PokerPlayer!!! :tiphat:

 

13 minutes ago, Floridian said:

What a brilliant person you are, Synopsis.

Do you have a PhD?

Can I ask what field you work in?

 

Thank You for Your kind words, Floridian, AND The Best Of Your Day To You As Well!!! :tiphat:

 

Hey, I did say:

 

42 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

Well, OK, a lot more of my conjecture, speculation, thoughts, opinions, and :twocents:

 

In The Mean Time...............................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

 

I may only be a highly imaginative crazy person with creative “thoughts” on what the articles could all mean SO Caveat Emptor EVERYBODY!!!

 

:o       :o       :o

 

Way back, I used to work in corn fields under the direction of my personal responsibility orientated paterfamilias who “strongly encouraged”  I HAD TO work whereas I HAD TO figure out HOW TO work. Needless to say, there was a considerable amount of “performance review” with “corrective direction” and “objective attainment” discussions (one way usually) and “affirmation”.

 

Maybe, just maybe the “constituted” and “refined” HOW TO is proving useful in fields other than just corn fields!!!

 

:o       :o       :o

 

So, no Piled Higher and Deeper (PhD) since I “needed” to be more “implementation” oriented!!!

 

:o       :o        :o

 

In The Mean Time...............................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

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3 hours ago, climber7 said:

So, can someone give a target number where when the dollar reaches a certain low against the dinar--they HAVE to RV because the current way won't work anymore? 

 

3 hours ago, Jaygo said:

 

Nobody can give you that number. Nobody knows. 

Well if the dollar goes below the current value of the dinar, nothing is going to work because it will be the end of the world as we know it.

 

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