Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly

[umbertino]

By Peter W. Stevenson September 23 at 8:00 AM

 

Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984.

When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.

And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, sat down with The Fix this week to reveal who he thinks will win in November and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

THE FIX: Can you tell me about the keys, and how you use them to evaluate the election from the point where — I assume it's very murky a year or two out, and they start to crystallize over the course of the election.

LICHTMAN: "The Keys to the White House" is a historically based prediction system. I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and have since used the system to correctly predict the outcomes of all eight American presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.

The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years.

So people who hear just the surface-level argument there might say, well, President Obama has a 58 percent approval rating, doesn't that mean the Democrats are a shoo-in? Why is that wrong?

It absolutely does not mean the Democrats are a shoo-in. First of all, one of my keys is whether or not the sitting president is running for reelection, and right away, they are down that key. Another one of my keys is whether or not the candidate of the White House party is, like Obama was in 2008, charismatic. Hillar.y Clinton doesn't fit the bill.

The keys have nothing to do with presidential approval polls or horse-race polls, with one exception, and that is to assess the possibility of a significant third-party campaign.

What about Donald Trump on the other side? He's not affiliated with the sitting party, but has his campaign been an enigma in terms of your ability to assess this election?

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.

We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillar.y Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.

We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November?

Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.

Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed.

Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running.

Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama's second term like the Affordable Care Act.

Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success.

And Key number 12, Hillar.y Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.

One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.

So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor. So this would also suggest, you know, the possibility this election could go either way. Nobody should be complacent, no matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote.

Do you think the fact that Trump is not a traditional Republican — certainly not an establishment Republican, from a rhetorical or policy perspective — contributes to that uncertainty over where he fits in with the standard methodology for evaluating the Keys?

I think the fact that he's a bit of a maverick, and nobody knows where he stands on policy, because he's constantly shifting. I defy anyone to say what his immigration policy is, what his policy is on banning Muslims, or whoever, from entering the United States, that's certainly a factor. But it's more his history in Trump University, the Trump Institute, his bankruptcies, the charitable foundation, of enriching himself at the expense of others, and all of the lies and dangerous things he's said in this campaign, that could make him a precedent-shattering candidate.

It's interesting, I don't use the polls, as I've just explained, but the polls have very recently tightened. Clinton is less ahead than she was before, but it's not because Trump is rising, it's because Clinton is falling. He's still around 39 percent in the polls. You can't win if you can't crack 40 percent.

As people realize the choice is not Gary Johnson, the only choice is between Trump and Clinton, those Gary Johnson supporters may move away from Johnson and toward Clinton, particularly those millennials. And, you know, I've seen this movie before. My first vote was in 1968, when I was the equivalent of a millennial, and lots of my friends, very liberal, wouldn't vote for Hubert Humphrey because he was part of the Democratic establishment, and guess what? They elected Richard Nixon.

And, of course, as I have said for over 30 years, predictions are not endorsements. My prediction is based off a scientific system. It does not necessarily represent, in any way, shape or form, an Allan Lichtman or American University endorsement of any candidate. And of course, as a successful forecaster, I've predicted in almost equal measure both Republican and Democratic victories.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

[MyLadiesDaddy]

 Well, by God, if he said it then it must be true 

[Sentinel7]

LGD you are correct by GOD Trump will become our next president.
Also by God Trump will help usher in a nation wide revival.
Long before this election hundreds of thousands of us have been asking the lord why he didn’t allow his people the smallest of victories.

We fight in his name we pray and we fight some more yet we are denied even the smallest of victories.
Little did we know that the Lord had a plan the kind of plan that all of us praying for.

Personally I have never given Trump any thought one-way or the other. He was someone I knew existed but I had never watched I never listened or thought of.
I can’t even tell you why I was home the day he announced he was running.
I was however listening to the news when he came down the stairway I knew he was the one that God was going to use to bring us victory.
Since that time hundreds maybe thousands have had revelations of the same theme.

Last night after I left DV I had another revelation why I didn’t see it when I read it I don’t know but it did hit me.
The thread that has Cruz endorsing Trump you revealed the true reason you hate Trump.
You have condemned America in the name of God. Where you got the authority to do so I have no idea but you have passed judgment against America in Gods name.

Now any person or entity that threatens your prophecy has become the enemy of your entire believe system.
You have become a Westboro Baptist church Christian one who hopes for the destruction of America instead of its salvation.

Know this God is going to install Trump as President and revival is coming to America 
Nothing you can do will stop it not your hate not your anger and not your condemnation.
As of this post I now view you just as I do Shabs nothing more then a zombie of Satan.
You can now post unabated with no response from me I view you as not worth response.

                      No Surrender No Retreat and No Compromise      

  
 

[Indraman]

25 minutes ago, Sentinel7 said:

LGD you are correct by GOD Trump will become our next president.
Also by God Trump will help usher in a nation wide revival.
Long before this election hundreds of thousands of us have been asking the lord why he didn’t allow his people the smallest of victories.

We fight in his name we pray and we fight some more yet we are denied even the smallest of victories.
Little did we know that the Lord had a plan the kind of plan that all of us praying for.

Personally I have never given Trump any thought one-way or the other. He was someone I knew existed but I had never watched I never listened or thought of.
I can’t even tell you why I was home the day he announced he was running.
I was however listening to the news when he came down the stairway I knew he was the one that God was going to use to bring us victory.
Since that time hundreds maybe thousands have had revelations of the same theme.

Last night after I left DV I had another revelation why I didn’t see it when I read it I don’t know but it did hit me.
The thread that has Cruz endorsing Trump you revealed the true reason you hate Trump.
You have condemned America in the name of God. Where you got the authority to do so I have no idea but you have passed judgment against America in Gods name.

Now any person or entity that threatens your prophecy has become the enemy of your entire believe system.
You have become a Westboro Baptist church Christian one who hopes for the destruction of America instead of its salvation.

Know this God is going to install Trump as President and revival is coming to America 
Nothing you can do will stop it not your hate not your anger and not your condemnation.
As of this post I now view you just as I do Shabs nothing more then a zombie of Satan.
You can now post unabated with no response from me I view you as not worth response.

                      No Surrender No Retreat and No Compromise      

  
 

Sentinel, very profound and insightful thoughts.

I view Trump like God used King Cyrus. As you have clearly stated, there are multiple revelations that have been given to people about Trump's path in this election. I personally have never received such a revelation from God, but I do feel that there is a very high probability that Trump is chosen by God. What has brought me is this realization is the amazing odds against Trump, the unlikely opponents he has seen along this election path, and the sheer craziness of this election; and yet Trump is right there almost seeming to be indestructible and growing in strength when, to quote HRC. "...I should be up 50 points right now in this election." He is building coalitions with voting blocks once felt sacred to Democrats, and yet taking heat from the Right (establishment) who has feigned self-richeousness and moral fortitude as a reason to give the next 4~8 years to a known, NWO, criminal, who is far more narcissistic than Trump could ever imagine to be.

If this is true that God has chosen Trump to lead this country in the coming years, then any and all who come against Him and His plan to stop Trump will not succeed, and will be pushed aside, knocked down, or even removed from the picture should this be required.

Either way, whether HRC or DJT is elected, I will accept the outcome. However, I will not stand in the way and thwart what I currently believe is God's plan for this Country, which is for DJT to be elected POTUS. If I am wrong, and instead HRC is elected, I will admit that I was wrong on this one entirely.

Indy

[nstoolman1]

Here is a wild and crazy thought: 

Trump gets elected.

Bows out, resigns.

Pence is president. 

Just a thought. 

[bostonangler]

Yup God sent Trump to cook the books and cash in on continued ignorance... Hmmm sounds about right to me. JMHO

 

B/A

[jg1]

14 minutes ago, bostonangler said:

Yup God sent Trump to cook the books and cash in on continued ignorance... Hmmm sounds about right to me. JMHO

 

B/A

Your assuming alot.

I want a business Man as president, Not a career politition like Hillarious.  Hillarious has shown us with her experience in office she can not be trusted. 

US government your fired. Ha.

 

[jg1]

28 minutes ago, nstoolman1 said:

Here is a wild and crazy thought: 

Trump gets elected.

Bows out, resigns.

Pence is president. 

Just a thought. 

Yes, just a thought. How about this one. Hillarious continues Obamas legacy, the US becomes a third wold country.

[MyLadiesDaddy]

1 hour ago, Sentinel7 said:

LGD you are correct by GOD Trump will become our next president.
Also by God Trump will help usher in a nation wide revival.
Long before this election hundreds of thousands of us have been asking the lord why he didn’t allow his people the smallest of victories.

We fight in his name we pray and we fight some more yet we are denied even the smallest of victories.
Little did we know that the Lord had a plan the kind of plan that all of us praying for.

Personally I have never given Trump any thought one-way or the other. He was someone I knew existed but I had never watched I never listened or thought of.
I can’t even tell you why I was home the day he announced he was running.
I was however listening to the news when he came down the stairway I knew he was the one that God was going to use to bring us victory.
Since that time hundreds maybe thousands have had revelations of the same theme.

Last night after I left DV I had another revelation why I didn’t see it when I read it I don’t know but it did hit me.
The thread that has Cruz endorsing Trump you revealed the true reason you hate Trump.
You have condemned America in the name of God. Where you got the authority to do so I have no idea but you have passed judgment against America in Gods name.

Now any person or entity that threatens your prophecy has become the enemy of your entire believe system.
You have become a Westboro Baptist church Christian one who hopes for the destruction of America instead of its salvation.

Know this God is going to install Trump as President and revival is coming to America 
Nothing you can do will stop it not your hate not your anger and not your condemnation.
As of this post I now view you just as I do Shabs nothing more then a zombie of Satan.
You can now post unabated with no response from me I view you as not worth response.

                      No Surrender No Retreat and No Compromise      

  
 

 Believe me when I tell you that I hate no one. I only have an opinion that is vigorously rejected by most here. So as I've been stating in other threads today, I am truly sorry that you and others have been hurt by my words and I will be refraining from giving them in the future. For you, if I can offer any consolation, it's that I now see the error of my ways. Truth be told I just wish I hadn't spent so much money to learn this lesson. But the only lessons that hold are the ones that cost dearly. I bid you ado and good day.   

47 minutes ago, bostonangler said:

Yup God sent Trump to cook the books and cash in on continued ignorance... Hmmm sounds about right to me. JMHO

 

B/A

 Yes my beloved brother, God is most certainly using Donald TRUMP to his will. I see that now clearly

[yota691]

5 hours ago, nstoolman1 said:

Here is a wild and crazy thought: 

Trump gets elected.

Bows out, resigns.

Pence is president. 

Just a thought. 

I bet those thoughts never cross Trump mind..Trump doesn't start anything, especially winning the White House, to Bow out.. 

[nstoolman1]

Hey, I said it was a wild and crazy thought. Do I believe it will happen? No.

I also have been around long enough to believe the old adage "Anything is possible". 

Edited September 25, 2016 by nstoolman1

[yota691]

27 minutes ago, nstoolman1 said:

old adage "Anything is possible"

Yeah I right with ya on that one..my saying is what you think will happen won't, what you think won't happen will...and then when things go wrong I try to look at it..well It could happen this way and it could been worse...Have A Great Sunday everybody...

 

[nstoolman1]

You too.

Another one I firmly believe is Murphy's Law.

http://www.murphys-laws.com/murphy/murphy-laws.html

[bostonangler]

8 hours ago, jg1 said:

Your assuming alot.

I want a business Man as president, Not a career politition like Hillarious.  Hillarious has shown us with her experience in office she can not be trusted. 

US government your fired. Ha.

 

I agree a business man and not a politician would be good. My comment was more about our DV member,Sentinel7. thinking Trump is God's pick to bring "us" victory. I found that to be both naïve and amusing. The fact that someone thinks that they and their agenda is the side God is on is rather amusing. I really do not believe God is a Republican. Just my humble opinion.

 

B/A

[Jaxinjersey]

21 minutes ago, bostonangler said:

I agree a business man and not a politician would be good. My comment was more about our DV member,Sentinel7. thinking Trump is God's pick to bring "us" victory. I found that to be both naïve and amusing. The fact that someone thinks that they and their agenda is the side God is on is rather amusing. I really do not believe God is a Republican. Just my humble opinion.

 

B/A

B/A...with all due respect, faith in God is an individual relationship.  I'm sure Sentinel has a firm belief in his heart that Trump fulfills that faith...as it relates to Sentinel, not you, or anyone else.  With such faith... why wouldn't a person believe God is on his side, or of the "we", or the "us" he congregates with?  What is naive, is someone belittling a person of faith for his beliefs, as if they were somehow projecting, or reflective of your own.  They are Sentinel's, and anyone else that may agree... and I'm sure there are many that find comfort and sustenance in them.  Perhaps silly to you... but imperative to them.   As far as amusing goes... anyone's perspective certainly can be!  No harm there, there's certainly plenty of that to go around!   Just my 

[MyLadiesDaddy]

5 hours ago, Jaxinjersey said:

B/A...with all due respect, faith in God is an individual relationship.  I'm sure Sentinel has a firm belief in his heart that Trump fulfills that faith...as it relates to Sentinel, not you, or anyone else.  With such faith... why wouldn't a person believe God is on his side, or of the "we", or the "us" he congregates with?  What is naive, is someone belittling a person of faith for his beliefs, as if they were somehow projecting, or reflective of your own.  They are Sentinel's, and anyone else that may agree... and I'm sure there are many that find comfort and sustenance in them.  Perhaps silly to you... but imperative to them.   As far as amusing goes... anyone's perspective certainly can be!  No harm there, there's certainly plenty of that to go around!   Just my 

 Unless of course that person was me, or someone who doesn't agree with Trump, right.  That kind of person is just a false prophet and a hypocritic unworthy of even a small amount of respect, it seems. 

[MyLadiesDaddy]

You know what, I regret making my last comment, they're not even worthy of a reply. Out of respect for you and this company I will refrain from making any more.

[bostonangler]

I'm beginning to think we need a new topic category. It seems almost every discussion some how ends up turning religious. How about a topic category just for religious discussion. I really hate it when I sign in, see that I have a notification that someone has quoted me or responded to a topic about politics, gun control, dinar, chat logs or anything else, only to see someone is trying to push their belief's on the rest of us. I personally think religion is a very personal matter and does not need to be interjected into every discussion. JMHO

 

B/A   

[Shabibilicious]

I love the hypocrisy of accepting the opinion of a professor (known among conservatives to be the very evil corrupting the higher educated children of this great land) when it fits a certain narrative........Clarity, clarity, clarity.  As always, just my "zombie of Satan" opinion.    

GO RV, then BV