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Adam Montana

Adam Montana weekly 9 March 2016

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Good morning and happy Wednesday everyone!

 

So, Pete and RePete were in a boat... Pete fell out. Who was still in the boat?

 

Yeah ;) this week is kind of like that. Like I mentioned last week, it's my feeling 

that our Dinar situation is tied VERY close to oil right now. We were at what I felt 

was the bottom (around $30ppb), and the same sources are showing about a 3% 

gain this week. 

 

That's nothing special, it doesn't signify a strong stability yet, and I'm not surprised 

to see so little in the news about HCL yet. It's just not enough of a change to get 

anyone motivated, and that shows in the news feeds.

 

Here's the visual comparison:

 

post-72-0-56459100-1457531689_thumb.png

 

This might sound crazy, but I actually don't want to see a huge spike. IMO the best 

thing we can see right now is a steady increase, or even some more flatlining. When 

we've seen about 2-3 weeks of stability, that's when I will start getting excited.

 

:twocents:

 

That might have sounded a little humbuggish, but really it's not. Iraq is doing a great 

job in all aspects. The only thing I'm humbuggish on right now is the prospects of an 

RV this week.

 

Give me a couple weeks of stable oil prices, and that should all change.

 

:twothumbs:

 

With that said - you know where I stand on the "when" and "why", so let's talk news!

 

  • Powerball is at ~50MM. Someone split this with me! LINK
  • We are not the only ones who see the IQD rising. LINK
  • Global conference on IRaqi banking? Yes please. LINK

 

One IMPORTANT note - I mentioned last week that we might see some site maintenance 

shortly. Hopefully that will start shortly, because sooner started = sooner done. I'll send 

out an email notifying everyone, but again DON'T FREAK OUT! :lol: The email system and 

text systems are 100% separate from the message board here, so you will NOT miss any 

notices in the event of anything big.

 

:twothumbs:

 

Here's the weekly Q's:

 

 

 

TheArtistFormallyKnownAs No country in history has ever had a major revaluation of their currency, instead went with the LOP option ,(MY QUESTION) to you what moves is Iraq making that most points to them being the first to go with the other (major RV) option?. In other words what most makes you feel that they are going to revalue, and not LOP their currency. Thank you.

Also , I got one warning point from you, how long does it stay on my record for? , and how many does one clock up before one is banned?.

My reasoning for Lop vs Revalue has been explained over and over and over. I outlined it 

in great detail in my book RV Intel (VIPs get it here for free), so I'll just give you the short 

version.

 

 

There is no other country in the world, or in history, that has been in the situation that Iraq 

is in now due to 1) the events that have transpired over the last 15 years and 2) Iraq's 

incredible wealth, resources, history, and potential. There just isn't anything to compare 

it to.

 

Consider how Donald Trump is breaking the mold in US Politics. Half the pundits still can't 

wrap their head around it, using old "measurements" and meaningless polls to naysay his 

success... yet he keeps winning. Which means the pundits are wrong, and the same logic 

applies to this question.

 

Regarding warning points, they stay forever and there is no set "number" that will get you 

banned. That's part of the fun. :lol:

 

 

TheArtistFormallyKnownAs One more thing , in your opinion are we Dinar holders under attack, is there a coordinated effort to get us to part with our Dinar , be it the CBI, CIA or whoever.

 

 

 

No, I don't think that at all. Why would you think that?

 

 

429 The short question: How much does Near East culture play into this whole RV deal?

I'm not versed in Near East culture. I don't know if you are. I really don't care about Lunar phases, either (said the man who is really big on the HOLY-DAY of Easter which is based upon Passover which is based upon the lunar phase). But I'm not Iraqi and I don't believe you are either. That being said, you and I aren't the deciding factors here. So do your contacts in the Near East ever refer to these lunar phases?
So there's a Solar Eclipse on 3/9/16 and a lunar eclipse on 3/23/16. How do these events effect the Iraqi culture and can they possibly effect the RV?

 

 

 

Although $ and religion are often intertwined, my contacts do not put any weight 

on such things with regard to a major change in currency value. This is a business 

matter, not a religious one.

 

:twocents:

 

 

patrick50 Why is so important just for the oil price to go up when Iraq is so rich in natural resources and not to forget agriculture?

 

 

That's a good question, thanks! I'm going to try not to over-complicate it, because it 

really is a simple matter.

 

You are correct, Iraq is indeed blessed with much natural resources, agriculture, and 

more! But in spite of that, there is still a finite amount of oil beneath the surface, and

if they are to get the most out of their efforts and have the best chances of RVing 

and sustaining a higher rate, their income from oil sales has a direct impact on that.

 

Therefore, higher price of oil = better for CBI. 

 


 

Mr. G The feeling seems to be, "Low oil prices", no RV.

This is just a thought, what do you think? If I am Iraq. I want to RV my money, back to its former glory. An RV is something they have to "handle", not manage. Once an RV occurs, from that time forward, it has to be managed. So, Regardless of the price, Oil is their main source of income backing the value of their currency. It will be the main backing for the next 50+ years. So, the best time to "handle" an RV, is when oil is extremely cheap. They have already set themselves up to "handle" the RV. Now, they just need it to RV as low as possible. Example: 10 cents. This makes it much easier/cheaper to "handle" the RV. Meanwhile, knowing the price of Oil will, and probably has to, go back up, that will make it much easier and profitable to "manage" the RV.
Crazy thought? Or, Very plausible?

 

 

 

 

Not a crazy thought at all my friend! But it would behoove them to come out with a low 

RV when their oil is higher, because it would increase their profit by the same factor... 

to put it simply, if they RV at .10 when oil is 3X higher than now, then they make at 

least 3X.

 

If you could trade 1 bar of gold for $500 today, but if you wait a month you know you 

will get $1500... wouldn't you wait a month?

 

I would.

 

:twothumbs:


 

countryroads Hi Adam.  Is Iraq financially stable enough to completely disregard the RV all together if they choose to?  When was the last time the RV was discussed in Parliament? Is there any sign of it coming before Parliament any time in the near future? Do you have any information along these lines that you could share with us. Just would like to know what is going on behind the lines and in the minds of the Iraqis.
Thanks

 

 

 

 

Of course they are! There is no law or prophecy that states the RV must happen, ever, 

for any reason. There's also nothing demanding a lop... they could do exactly the same 

thing they are doing now for eternity. But WHY would they do that, when there is so 

much potential and possibility to recover that which was lost?

 

Regarding Parliament, this isn't something that they announce on the morning news... 

"Parliament to discuss massive RV of currency" is a headline you will NEVER see. There 

would be an insane speculative run on the currency, and the next morning you'd see this 

headline: "Well, Parliament WAS going to discuss an RV but they made a huge mistake 

by announcing it lol sorry everyone j/k no RV".

 

;)

 

 

Seabee Hi Adam  This is something totally different for you hear on a Wed. I live in upstate N.Y. And in one of the poorest counties of the state. In fact one of the problems our small village has is a drug problem. With that said, I have a large amount of IQD just waiting for an RV. When this happens I am going to offer a large sum of money to the village police to take on the drug problem so the they can get a handle on it. Yes, there is a lot of work involved, but this is what I want to and if I can save a life, this will be important to me.

I only am going to ask you one thing. Please let me know ASAP when this thing breaks!!!!!!

 

 

Seabee, you are a true gentleman and a saint. You have my word I will let you know.

 

:tiphat:

 

==============================================

 

That's it for now everyone - again, please don't freak out when the site is offline for a day 

or two in the near future.

 

:)

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***///

Awesome Chat, CHIEF:twothumbs: Thanks as always !

SHORT SHARE: someone looked at us like we'd lost our minds at the gas station the other day because

we were remarking on how good it would be if the ppb would go up .... if they only knew:lol:  ^_^

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***///

Awesome Chat, CHIEF:twothumbs: Thanks as always !

SHORT SHARE: someone looked at us like we'd lost our minds at the gas station the other day because

we were remarking on how good it would be if the ppb would go up .... if they only knew:lol:  ^_^

 

I guess they'd never seen a hoveround at the pumps before.   :eyebrows: 

 

GO RV, then BV

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Thanks Buzzy...Handled like the gentleman you are...Thanks to the mods for keepin' things in check...Hoping as the gals do that the price of oil has a steady rise...Shab that all ''Depends''....

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Thanks Buzzy...Handled like the gentleman you are...Thanks to the mods for keepin' things in check...Hoping as the gals do that the price of oil has a steady rise...Shab that all ''Depends''....

 

Hahahaha...... :lol: 

 

GO RV, then BV

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I guess they'd never seen a hoveround at the pumps before.   :eyebrows: 

 

***///

 

... and they won't... not with us, anyway.  Our Segways (not HoverRounds) are Solar-Charged ! 

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***///

 

... and they won't... not with us, anyway.  Our Segways (not HoverRounds) are Solar-Charged ! 

 

 I must say, that's pretty hip...   :)  .....even in polyester.  

 

ef3b7c0b4c77c6b8a0d392c2c503f737.jpg

 

GO RV, then BV

Edited by Shabibilicious
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Yes Adam , there is a country that you can compare Iraq to , Russia has Oil and Gas like Iraq , not as much but a hell of a lot , and they had  LOP , three O's too, I had asked you about this in the passed and your answer was Russia is not Iraq , not a great answer , it certainly didn't clear it up for me.

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Thanks Adam.

Just wanted to hear it from you, I felt pretty much the same way. Around here if you start talking about wanting the oil prices to rise, you may not live long enough to collect any of that RV.

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Yes Adam , there is a country that you can compare Iraq to , Russia has Oil and Gas like Iraq , not as much but a hell of a lot , and they had  LOP , three O's too, I had asked you about this in the passed and your answer was Russia is not Iraq , not a great answer , it certainly didn't clear it up for me.

 

If Dinar Vets were the Matrix, Adam's equivalent would be Morpheus........And Morpheus knows more than any of us could possibly comprehend.   :shrug: 

 

10bgzy.jpg

 

GO RV, then BV   B) 

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Yes Adam , there is a country that you can compare Iraq to , Russia has Oil and Gas like Iraq , not as much but a hell of a lot , and they had  LOP , three O's too, I had asked you about this in the passed and your answer was Russia is not Iraq , not a great answer , it certainly didn't clear it up for me.

 

If you asked in the past, and my answer wasn't sufficient, I suggest you look elsewhere.

 

It sounds like your real question is "What's the difference between Russia and Iraq?"

 

Please don't waste your time trolling me with silly questions like that. Thanks.

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Much appreciated Adam as always sir. Thanks goes out to you and the mods for keeping us grounded and informed.

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So, Pete and RePete were in a boat... Pete fell out. Who was still in the boat?

 

 Sounds Like We're All Stuck In The Boat At Least Another Week Waiting For An RV -

 

Oh For Pete's Sake ...

 

kxoeh.jpg

 

  :D        :D        :D

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***///

Awesome Chat, CHIEF:twothumbs: Thanks as always !

SHORT SHARE: someone looked at us like we'd lost our minds at the gas station the other day because

we were remarking on how good it would be if the ppb would go up .... if they only knew !

I doubt they'd do that in Texas, Alaska, North Dakota or other oil producing states.  A lot of the smaller oil and oil service companies are holding on by a thread.

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      A Budget works the same way in most places, and Iraq is no different. Politicians lobby for their departments, asking for more money always, and this is why a "tripartisan" government is so important and mentioned so much in the current Prime Minister debacle. If a Prime Minister came in and seated all members of one political group, it would be like the US having only Democrats or only Republicans in power. The reason we hear about the Iraqi Budget so much is simple - they are all fighting for money. (Or power, but it's really the same thing.)
       
      The reasons I say the Iraqi Budget doesn't matter are pretty simple. You've made it this far, stick with me just a little further!
       
      1.  Whether a specific Department (Defense, Education, etc) is on the Iraqi Budget for a percentage or a fixed money amount, there is a dollar/dinar amount that can be assigned to it based on the current price of oil x demand for oil = projected income / department allocation = $ for Department. This is a simple calculation that can be done in 2 minutes on a 1 page presentation. It's literally 2nd grade math.
       
      2. Regardless of any rate change, that dollar amount can be estimated and stay the same with a simple Amendment. Imagine a late night Parliament meeting - called at the last minute after 8PM one night, emergency, mandatory! One item on the agenda - doors are locked, cell phones left outside - the ONE ITEM is this: We are going to raise the rate at midnight provided everyone signs this Budget Amendment.
       
      The Budget Amendment, in this case, states that the previous passed Budget is fixed at the old rate and all Departments receive an immediate 10% bonus due to the CBI exchange rate adjustment. The rest of the money that becomes available is held in reserve until further modification of the Budget... EVERY SINGLE POLITICIAN is a hero and has almost unlimited job security at that point.
       
      Not one of them loses. It's the biggest slam dunk in Parliament history.
       
      Of course they wouldn't magically start to get along, but that's an offer even that bunch of hooligans couldn't screw up.
       
      OR:
       
      3. Bypass the late night meeting and just pass a Presidential declaration stating the same. It accomplishes the same thing, and by the time anyone could complain, the rate would have been in effect long enough that it wouldn't matter. The President knows this. The CBI knows it. You know it. I know it.
       
      The bottom line here? It doesn't matter what the Budget says, because all the Budget really does is allocate money to departments. The rate, based on the global fiat currency exchange program, controls how many wing dings and knick knacks they can buy with their money because of it's international status... but the Department of Wing Dings is still going to have $X of the Budget, the Department of Knick Knacks still has $X, regardless of the rate, and that's the way it works. Fiat currency isn't an "Iraq" thing - it's a WORLD thing. OIL isn't an Iraq thing. Budgets aren't an Iraq thing. Currency manipulation isn't an Iraq thing. NONE of this is unique to Iraq - all of this is "business as usual", and when Iraq changes their rate, that's what it is - business as usual.
       
      Conclusion:
       
      There are plenty of good reasons for intelligent people to discuss the Budget and the Auctions. It's important that Iraq continue to be successful in the Auctions, pass their Budget, and continue doing business. While the world demands OIL, those who have it will always have credit. Iraq has proven itself capable of utilizing Auctions as a form of monetary control, and I don't believe their Auctions or Budget are a hindrance to increasing the value of the Dinar.
       
      In fact, it looks quite the opposite. And on that note, I say...
       
       
      GOOOOO RRRRVVVVV!!!!!
       

       
    • By Adam Montana
      Hey hey DinarVets!
       
      I was out yesterday and most of the day before with a bit of a bug - I didn't die, so I assume it's not Corona.
       
      Or maybe it was, and I beat it. Wouldn't surprise me.  
       
      This is just going to be a brief post for today. I spent the weekend (before I was attacked by that bug) working on a deep-dive post regarding Iraq's Budget and CBI Auctions. I'll get that posted by tomorrow morning.  
       
      To the present moment... we are looking at one of the craziest times in world news that we have ever seen.
       
      We may not have an actual health emergency on our hands - the plain old flu is more dangerous to the population, strictly by the numbers - but we certainly do have a financial crisis on our hands. The world, and the world markets, are treating the Corona Virus as if it were a full blown pandemic - so, whether it deserves to be treated that way or not - that's what we are dealing with.
       
      OIL is down to about $30. BTC leapt off the cliff and plummeted to $6000, wiping out all the recent gains. Stocks... don't even get me started on the markets, I'm just thankful @Pitcher has been willing to share thoughts over the last few updates! It hasn't been pretty.
       
      Iraq is vulnerable to all of these things, just like the rest of the world - and on top of that, they are dealing with a Prime Minister issue. 
       
      In spite of all that... guess who's not going anywhere?
       
      Iraq, you, and me. We aren't going anywhere.
       
      Especially not in public without some kind of contraption on our faces  
       
      I'm really short on time today, so I'm going to get this posted for now.
       
      Stay tuned for the update on the Auctions and the Budget - I just need to proof it once more and it will be up.  
       
      OSI members, I'm a day behind regarding that last notice we were discussing. I'll be following up on that one shortly as well. Thanks for your patience!
       
      Talk soon!
       

       
      - Adam
    • By Adam Montana
      Hey hey good morning DinarVets!
       
      This is one of those "holy MOLY" spots in history - so much is going on right now!
       
      Coronovirus is shaking the stock markets - if you didn't catch @Pitcher's posts in my chat last week, they are worth a look!
       
      Super Tuesday was yesterday, and it looks like the Dem race is officially Old White Guy #1 vs Old White Guy #2. (I have nothing against old white guys, I just think it's funny  ). Mike Bloomberg bought American Samoa, apparently.
       
      Speaking of politics... 'tis almost full tilt political season, according to the drama-meter we run in the background. I'll take a second to gently remind everyone that this is a nice place to visit, we won't all agree on everything, and we like to keep things calm, cool, and collected. And nice. Just be nice to each other, please.  
       
      BTC is hovering around the 8700 mark, despite the political and health topics and markets. Solid.
       
      On to the dinar, which is of course the heart of these updates!
       
      We also have some member questions that I'll get to shortly.
       
      Sitting (temporary?) PM Allawi has threatened resignation - rather, he has "withdrawn his candidacy". 
       
      I said from the start that he wasn't my top choice for the spot, but he certainly impressed me! The man went in and started kicking things around like an Iraqi Jack Welch, which is exactly what needed to happen in Iraq. I get the feeling that he is an "all or nothing" kind of guy and didn't feel comfortable with what could have been a solid 80% win. 
       
      So, what's next? 
       
       
      The Iraqi President can simply appoint someone (again), but it's not necessary to take drastic action. Maybe Mahdi steps back up (he was never really gone), but that doesn't make a difference either. As mentioned in a recent post:
       
       
       
      The good news for us, and Iraq? 
       
      No matter who steps into the Prime Minister role next, Allawi was able to get some wood chopped. Iran lost a LOT of power over the last month, for one. I think that may have more to do with Allawi's current decision than anything - he seems to want them completely gone, not just 80% reduced. 
       
      Most importantly, and this is the crux of the matter, Allawi wasn't elected to this position in the first place - yet, things got done. In my opinion, the raise in the value of the Dinar is going to happen regardless of who is sitting in the Prime Minister chair. 
       
      All of the things that need to happen in Iraq continue to happen, and "who" is sitting "where" does not seem to matter. 
       
       
       
      EDIT: As I was wrapping up this post, @tigergorzow posted this:
       
       
      My thoughts on it were stated above, and remain the same - the name doesn't matter, as long as it's not Maliki! Someone will be in that seat, soon, and the train will continue to chug along.
       
      We are getting close.  
       
      ====== Member questions below =====
       
       
       
      This is a very reasonable question - it is based on logic and a thoughtful approach to the issue...
       
      ... unlike fiat currency, which is based on nothing of the sort, and actually throws reason out the window. The Iraqi Dinar is a fiat currency, just like the US dollar, and logical rules utilizing responsible financial principals simply do not apply.
       
      For this reason alone, it simply does not need to make financial sense to RV. Check out @ladyGrace'sDaddy's post below:
       
       
      Nicely stated, LGD.
       
      The summary is this: Iraq doesn't need a 1:1 reserve:cash ratio to have a 1:1 parity with the US dollar, or any other ratio to the dollar. The only thing that matters is "will it sell" - and, it will.
       

       
       
      There's always one in the group!  
       
       
      This is a great question as well! I don't think "massive" is the correct term. "Significant" - definitely, but it's not "massive".
       
      Nonetheless - I would only be concerned if OIL was suddenly no longer in demand. Any dips or peaks in the price of oil are temporary until the global demand for oil is eliminated.
       
      While OIL is a necessary product in the global economy, the price can fluctuate all it wants - Iraq still has a majority of it, and they will be able to bank on that.
       
      If the entire world switched to solar overnight, then it would be "game over". Until that happens, I am not too concerned about the price of oil.
       
       
       
       
      1 - I'll need more info on "1,000,000 IQD is forbidden". The rule is $10,000 (USD) and up must be declared in most countries. 
       
      2 - I still remember my first trip to Dubai, where there was a security checkpoint that required removing our shoes and they sprayed everyone's feet with disinfectant on the way through... but regarding your question, I'm going to need a link to be sure we are discussing the same thing  
       
       
      Great post, Synopsis
      The forum software will collapse your comment, but I'd encourage anyone interested to click on it to expand and read it. 
       
      My answer: I agree with your closing statement:
       
       

       
       
      Auctions... I'm not sure what you mean about the auctions. The auctions don't matter - if they sell at 1160 today but sell at 12 tomorrow, do we care what the rate was yesterday or if they did an auction yesterday? 
       
      The auctions will continue after the rate is changed. It's how they do business.
       
       
       
      Iran's influence was a major factor, but it is greatly reduced already and looks to be shrinking more by the day.
       
      All is well in my opinion!  
       
       
      ========= / end Member Q's =======
       
      WHEW! That was a fun update, I really appreciate the feedback and questions from the members! I'll do that again soon, or not, depending on Iraq.
       
      Don't forget to chuck your numbers in the Weekly Pool, and GOOOOO RRRRVVVVVV!!!!
       
       
       
      - Adam 
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