What would happen to the dinar if Kurdistan Finally Breaks from Iraq?

[SocalDinar]

What would happen to the dinar if the Kurds gain independence.? Personally I don't think its possible anytime soon but I have wondered what would happen to the value of the IQD if the Kurds were to start printing their own currency? Would this hurt the dinar?  

 

2016: The Year Kurdistan Finally Breaks from Iraq?

With this latest referendum, the Kurds could stand on their own.

Seth J. Frantzman

 

February 26, 2016

inShare

In early February the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, called for a referendum on Kurdish independence. “The time has come and the conditions are now suitable for the people to make a decision through a referendum on their future,” wrote Masoud Barzani. He cautioned people that it did would not entail the “immediate declaration of statehood” but rather judging the will of the “people of Kurdistan” and to create the political landscape to “implement this will at the appropriate time and circumstances.”

On February 13, the German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier took to Twitter to express “serious concern” about plans for a referendum, after reportedly meeting Barzani at the Munich Security Conference. Serious concern would be diplomatic speak for “no.” Critics abroad see the independence referendum as a mix of political strategy and long time policy. Ibrahim al-Marashi, a California-based history professor, wrote at Al Jazeera, “Not only does a call for independence appeal to Kurdish constituents, it serves as a tool to empower the KRG vis-a-vis the central government in Baghdad.” Some have suggested that the referendum is merely cover for the Kurdistan Democratic Party to renew its electoral mandate. Elections scheduled for 2013 and 2015 have been postponed to 2017, an issue that ruffles feathers among the smaller parties in Kurdistan. Currently the KRG is governed by the KDP, the largest party, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

If a referendum was merely a cynical ploy, then why is the KRG’s own government being so hesitant about it? Perhaps because this has happened once before. The last time Kurdistan had a referendum for independence was in 2005, when 1.9 million Kurds voted in Iraqi national and KRG regional elections. 98 percent of those casting ballots said yes to independence. In 2014, Barzani told the BBC he wanted to hold a referendum. The Kurdish parliament was supposed to set a date for the decision. Then Kurdistan was attacked by Islamic State on August 3, 2014.

The war against ISIS has illustrated Kurdistan’s de facto independence better than any referendum could. Cut off from Baghdad, the region functioned independently. It had to control its own economy and develop its own oil resources. Its budget was cut from Baghdad as well due to the war, and the KRG was plunged into financial crises, having to support two hundred thousand Kurdish peshmerga fighters on the frontline against ISIS. Iraq’s Baghdad government condemns any attempt by the KRG to secede. “Any unilateral position from any party without coordination or approval will be against the constitution and illegal,” Saad al-Hadithi, a spokesman for Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, told the press in late January.

 

The KRG has cited referendums in Catalonia, Quebec and Scotland as precedents. But in each of those cases, the national-level democracy accepted the regional referendum and did not actively oppose it, or try to prevent it by force. Neither did foreign governments express opposition to the concept of Scottish independence, or Quebecois independence, for instance. Perhaps a more interesting precedent would be that of Kosovo. In 1991, more than one million Kosovars voted in a referendum for independence from Yugoslavia. Although Serbs boycotted the vote, 99 percent of voters supported independence. After Kosovo had declared independence in 2008, ten years after a U.S.-backed intervention to push Serbian forces from the province, Kosovo Serbs voted in 2012 against accepting Kosovo administration. Unsurprisingly, more than 99 percent of the twenty-six thousand who voted refused to accept Kosovo.

In these instances, the referendums took place against the central government’s wishes. There are many other examples of such referendums, such as the one held in Somaliland in 2001, affirming independence from Somalia. While 112 countries recognize Kosovo, it is notable that many do not, despite the support it has received from the U.S., the EU and the international community. Countries that try to go it alone, such as Somaliland, do not face a bright future. Even countries that have won independence through a referendum, such as South Sudan, have found themselves plagued by internal conflict. The Crimea referendum, in which 96 percent were said to have voted to join Russia, was widely seen as discredited by the fact that the Russian army had occupied the peninsula.

This leaves Kurdistan in an unenviable position. Sero Qadir of the Institute for Research and Development in Kurdistan argues that the referendum is a way to show the public’s approval for independence, but he stresses that with or without the referendum, Kurdistan has a right to independence.

“In my view the referendum is connected with independence and I believe we could have independence anyway without the referendum,” Qadir explained. “When Barzani speaks about it,” he said, it “is because he wants to bring together the political parties and collect them in one idea. . .” Qadir added that in such an event Barzani would have a stronger hand in dealing with Iraq and the international community.

 

He expects to see independence in 2016: “There are three who support it formally: Israel, Saudi, France. But some smaller countries, we estimate around 40 others, support our independence.”

Dr. Kemal Kirkuki, a former speaker of the KRG parliament, member of the KDP politburo and a peshmerga commander near Kirkuk, wrote in a response to a query about independence that the “self-determination is a natural right” of all nations.

“Self-determination is a right that the International Law, the UN charters and covenants, and Human right laws all agree on—it is an international legitimate legal right for people.” He asserts that any independence would not violate the Iraqi constitution, an issue raised by Baghdad, because the constitution states the various components of the country have taken it upon themselves to “decide to unite by choice.” They can therefore separate by choice.

He also asks why the international community has watched Kurdistan defend the world against ISIS but does not demand that Kurdistan receive its full budget from Baghdad. “The international community should be also willing to recognize our natural and legal right to practice self-determination, and conduct our referendum…”

 

Qadir argues that as time goes on, the KRG’s independence goals will be eroded and undermined by Iran, and by the region’s Sunni-Shia sectarianism. “If we stay in Iraq we lose what we have, we will be a small government in Iraq which has ethnic-sectarian war and we will end up as [a] slave of Iran.” There is a sense that Iran works behind the scenes to encourage other parties in the KRG, such as the Goran (Change) movement, to oppose independence. Publicly, these other parties claim to support independence, but have not spoken out about the need for a referendum with the gusto of the KDP.

Contending with pressure from within as well as outside Kurdistan’s borders, Barzani will surely face no end of challenges between today and the referendum.

Seth J. Frantzman is a Jerusalem-based journalist who holds a PhD from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/2016-the-year-kurdistan-finally-breaks-iraq-15321?page=2

Edited February 26, 2016 by SocalDinar

[GregHi]

As my friend mentioned.. Independence is coming one way or another this year!!

[Antietam]

I doubt it. Like so many referendums in the middle east it comes down to "all blow and no go". The Baghdad elites are greasing the palms of the Kurdish elites, and vice versa. Too much corruption, and backdoor payoffs to remain loyal. But IF the Kurds did break away, they take their oil with them. That reduces the revenue coming in to Baghdad, and that's not a positive for any kind of currency movement.

[easyrider]

i also wonder if ww3 will ever begin... ah a man can dream cant he?

[Antietam]

Wow, this new format is rough on technology-impaired old people like myself.  Where do you go now to start a new thread topic?

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

***///  Top of the page "CREATE"... we think...

dunno... we're old tech-impaireds ourselves !

[rockfl9]

The Kurds will get their independence . They are marking time... Waiting for the liberation of Mosul ,that they cant do by them selves. then they will engulf Tikrit and all lands up to the Euphrates. Anbar has taken in a lot of Kurds from Syria that they have taken care of.so that may be included. Then GO FOR SEPARATION. BOOM. If they can do that it would be a more powerful country than the rest of current Iraq. Still a split between  SHIA AND suni!

THE problem !!! I t relies on the pipeline thru Turkey? Is that secure?? My bet is YES . Money is involved.

[MisterNope]

They can CALL for whatever they want, doesn't mean it's gonna happen within a week or month or even at all.

Iraq has to ALLOW for "Kurdistan" to exist. 

Do you think Iraq central government will give up its most productive oil fields of the north?

 

NOPE!

 

This is gonna be a long struggle, and if "Kurdistan" is to be formed and shaped, NOW is the time to start that.

Although the majority of Kurdish territory lies within Turkey, the Turks will definitely NOT relinquish that land, and the Kurds will have to take what they can get, which is northern Iraq.

FIRST though, ISIS has to be COMPLETELY vanquished from Iraq! 

This hasn't happened yet and will not happen this year.

 

 

[Karsten]

Hey, Nice Rifles that Soldier......He most like has the Fun Switch that I don't.

 

 

Karsten

[SocalDinar]

I don't think  the referendum  will pass but if it does i doubt it will come to be any time soon. 

[rockfl9]

Hi Socal.  The referendum will pass .... The problem I see would be to get it certified. I did not read anywhere that they have taken the proper steps to do that... It could be that they requested certification ( UN ) and it was rejected .  So this may serve as a test to show the UN .  They may just have to do it again.

[SocalDinar]

We shall see Rock! 

Have you seen this article. 

http://ekurd.net/poll-independent-kurdistan-2017-07-25

61% voted ‘No’ for independent Iraqi Kurdistan in social media poll

Posted on July 25, 2017 by Editorial Staff in Politics

61% voted ‘No’ for independent Iraqi Kurdistan in NRT’s social media poll, July 2017. Photo: Ekurd/NRT

SULAIMANI, Iraq’s Kurdistan region,— Most of the Kurdish people have voted ‘No’ for the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan in a vote on Kurdish NRT TV social media in which 119,000 people participated and 92,000 voted.

NRT held a major vote through Facebook, which began on June 10 and ended on 10 July. The question on the referendum was – What will your vote be in the Kurdistan Region’s referendum: Yes or No?

Up to 119,000 people have participated in the referendum in the month long period and 92,083 people have voted. According to the participants’ votes, 61.74 percent have voted no and 38.26 percent have voted yes for the independence of Kurdistan.

56,855 people have voted “No” and 35,228 others have voted “Yes” out of the 92,083 people who answered the question on the referendum from NRT.

The NRT referendum is the largest vote which has been held by Kurdish media, in which nearly 100,000 people have participated in the referendum and showed their opinion regarding the Kurdistan Region’s referendum.

Many Kurds criticized Massoud Barzani, whose term as Kurdistan President ended on August 20, 2015 but refused to step down and remains unofficially in office and closed parliament, over an attempt to use the referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan region’s independence from Baghdad to stay in power, regain personal and party credibility that had been lost due to political and economic crises recently experienced by the Iraqi Kurds.

The Kurdistan Independence referendum of January 2005 that was conducted by the Kurdistan Referendum Movement alongside the Iraqi parliamentary elections and Iraqi Kurdistan elections of 2005, was an informal referendum asking the people of Iraqi Kurdistan whether they favor remaining a part of Iraq or in favor of an independent Kurdistan.

The 2005 result was an overwhelming majority of 98.8% favoring an independent Kurdistan.

The Kurdistan Region’s political parties, not including the second biggest party of Change (Gorran) Movement and the Kurdistan Islamic Group (KIG), came to an agreement on June 7 to hold a referendum on the region’s independence on September 25, 2017.

[rockfl9]

16 minutes ago, SocalDinar said:

 

Kurdistan elections of 2005, was an informal referendum asking the people of Iraqi Kurdistan whether they favor remaining a part of Iraq or in favor of an independent Kurdistan.

The 2005 result was an overwhelming majority of 98.8% favoring an independent Kurdistan.

The Kurdistan Region’s political parties, not including the second biggest party of Change (Gorran) Movement and the Kurdistan Islamic Group (KIG), came to an agreement on June 7 to hold a referendum on the region’s independence on September 25, 2017.

The NRT poll  was informal.  I dont know why they would have changed since 2005 , Bagdad has not been good to them.

[SocalDinar]

Agreed but as Jim Morrison once said  " People are strange" 

We shall see how many turn out for this vote. Either way it will be interesting to watch