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Adam Montana Weekly 23 Feb 2016


Adam Montana
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Good morning DV!

 

My schedule is a bit unusual for the rest of the week, so this week's Wednesday 

update is coming a day early. (No need to double check your calendar! It's not 

you, it's me. ;) )

 

*QUICK NOTE: VIP MEMBERS, I posted a VIP update here: http://goo.gl/Pnb2Fr

 

And I also sent an email about it. If you didn't get that email, you need to fix that!

 

Instructions to do so are in my signature below - look for the word "whitelist".

 

:twothumbs:

 

Last week I spoke a little about the price of oil and how it's likely affecting Iraq's 

ultimate goal of raising the rate of the dinar. That led to the usual feedback, which 

ranges from "Thanks for the update" to "omg Adam it's all your fault no RV!!!" (or 

something like that).

 

:lol:

 

Look... this is real simple. Here's a snapshot of oil prices over the last 10 years:

 

post-72-0-28671700-1456240945_thumb.png

 

It certainly doesn't take a rocket surgeon or a brain scientist to see that oil is silly 

low right now. After you take into account for inflation, it's even more obvious that 

this low rate cannot last.

 

Now, if a bunch of numbskulls like us can easily see that oil should probably be 

closer to $80... don't you think Iraq can, too? I certainly do.

 

As I type this, oil hasn't moved and we still haven't seen any significant news on 

the HCL.

 

The GOOD news is that it also doesn't take a genius to grasp that oil is probably 

about as low as it can possibly go, which means there's only one way for it to go 

from here.

 

UP. :twothumbs:

 

And the GREAT news is that in spite of these ridiculously low oil prices, the CBI 

has maintained a very strong grip on the exchange rate, proving that they are, as 

always, very capable of manipulating their market how they wish.

 

You don't like to wait. I don't like to wait. But "it is what it is", so let's keep a level 

head and at this time I think our motto is: "Watch the oil".

 

 

Whatzup Buzzy...''Thanks'' to the mods and staff for keepin' you in-line...My bad, us in-line..  :tiphat:....With all the attention recently to support the private sector and the laws being pasted to finance the private sector and support international investors interest...My question; What's your take on Iraq getting the approval from the UN and WTO on the upcoming issue of Articular 8...''Thanks'' again to you and your staff for an excellent job of keepin' us informed and in-line...   :peace:

 

Hey Skeet, you had it right the first time... they keep me in line ;)

 

I've never placed a major emphasis on Article 8, and I still don't. That would be a 

strategic detail, whereas I still believe it's more about the fundamentals at this time.

 

Those fundamental things have been whittled down to a very short list: 

 

1. HCL

 

I like short lists! :D

 

Here's something for everyone to consider, speaking of fundamentals. I made a big 

deal out of how the Kurds and Baghdad were getting along so much better lately. If 

you've been in this for long, you will know that we used to ALWAYS see article after 

article about 7% this and 14% that and Kuwait boycotting Parliament due to non-

payment and on and on... have you seen much of that lately? Or any?

 

Nope. It's been very quiet on that front, because they've got those fundamentals 

worked out. They're playing nice with each other, and despite the wait... I really like 

our odds once we start seeing oil go back up.

 

:twothumbs:

 

Hey Adam,

 

 

Lately the numbers of questions posted on this weekly event have been much less than in the past.

 

 

True - it's slow in the news lately, and I think most people who would post in the weekly 

Q&A threads have probably seen most of the questions asked and answered more than 

once :lol:

 

Thank you for bringing fresh questions to the table. I split them up below:

 

 

 

Just some things on my mind…

 

 

You can answer any, all, or none of these.  I know I am over the allotted amount, just trying to make up for the slow weeks!

 

 

Thanks.

 

 

Do you believe the smaller denominations are already in Iraq and are ready for distribution?  If yes, held in the banks or green zone?

 

 

Yes.

 

At one time I had heard from sources I deem reliable that they were at banks, but 

that was some time ago. I don't think it matters where they are held either way. :shrug:

 

 

 

Is Abadi really under the gun to complete the monetary reform in Iraq at risk of being removed from office? 

 

 

In my opinion... not in the slightest. He's done so much good, and has so much 

positive influence, there's no way he's under any serious risk of being "removed".

 

 

 

How important is Cleric/Holy Man Sistani in any of this process?

 

Sistani... that's a good question, and a name I haven't heard in some time. I'll 

go back to what I said in response to skeet earlier - I think that's more of a 

technicality than a fundamental. So I'll rank his importance as "low".

 

 

 

Do you know if the daily auctions will really end on Feb 29th and what is the significance of the lower daily auction numbers of late?

 

I don't pay attention to the auctions. I used to keep a detailed spreadsheet, then 

I realized it was a waste - the CBI will do whatever they want, whenever they want, 

and they won't clue is in with any kind of pattern, change, or announcement.

 

:twcocents:

 

 

The amnesty bill keeps being pushed back.  How significant is this in the process?  When passed does this mean that the bad guys (Maliki & crowd) as well as the good guys (Shabbi etc.) will all be pardoned even though the bad guys were the ones who filed false charges on the good guys? 

 

Same as above - this is a technical issue, dealing with a small portion of Iraq's 

issues. The fact is very simple that they can have these problems AND a higher 

rate... but they will not be able to maintain the higher rate without the HCL.

 

 

 

 

Did you hear that the Broncos won the Super Bowl?

 

I'm not ashamed to say that YES I did hear, and unfortunately I lost some money 

on that game :lol:

 

It was well won. (But not well lost... I lost a lot of respect for Newton on his post-game 

performance.)

 

 

Ditto what coorslight said!   :twothumbs:  Love those Broncos!

 

Cheers Booster!

 

Happy Tuesday, everyone! Make it a great week.

 

:tiphat:

 

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Adam - as always, Thank You for your weekly posts!

:tiphat:

You mentioned in your post, "You don't like to wait. I don't like to wait. But "it is what it is", so let's keep a level head and at this time I think our motto is: "Watch the oil"."  This seems to be about on the level of watching the grass grow, paint dry, or water boil.  But, OK, likely watching the oil price is much more profitable!  Thanks for the tip!

:twothumbs:

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Did anyone win the Lotto?  Ever?


Adam - as always, Thank You for your weekly posts!

:tiphat:

You mentioned in your post, "You don't like to wait. I don't like to wait. But "it is what it is", so let's keep a level head and at this time I think our motto is: "Watch the oil"."  This seems to be about on the level of watching the grass grow, paint dry, or water boil.  But, OK, likely watching the oil price is much more profitable!  Thanks for the tip!

:twothumbs:

I wish this would happen as fast as any one of the three.  Preferably as fast as water boils.  I can make that happen really fast.  Now everyone is going to ask how.  I just know it.  So here's the trick to make water boil super fast, Animal style.  Just use a little bit.  Haha

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I wish this would happen as fast as any one of the three.  Preferably as fast as water boils.  I can make that happen really fast.  Now everyone is going to ask how.  I just know it.  So here's the trick to make water boil super fast, Animal style.  Just use a little bit.  Haha

I'm not quite sure how to get the water to boil faster.  Putting the water pot above a lit oil well comes to mind but likely not an option.  The water would boil real quick, oil exports would drop, and the oil price would likely go up some.  I'd like to see other options other than a war.  Maybe they'll get their act together and then, wullah, an RV!

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