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Why can’t Iraq simply put the HCL in the 2016 budget?


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This is a brief synopsis as to why Iraq can't put the HCL in the Budget right now. This is more a high level overview as to the reasons and a brief to as what the draft will consist of. 

 

One would surmise all the Iraqi parliament has to do is include a paragraph in the draft of the budget, get it read and published in the gazette and voila! Immediate RV! It’s not that simple. Here is why.

 

First, the current setup that Iraq has for their oil revenue dates back to the 1950’s. Little of this has been changed. This setup is not designed to distribute and assign privileges to the citizens of Iraq. This means that the revenue went to infrastructure projects instead of salaries and pensions. This setup has failed the country of Iraq and her citizens time and time again. Restructuring this entails dismantling the current process and building from scratch to accommodate Iraq’s Constitution in which will resolve the distribution of privileges and responsibilities between the Ministry of Oil in Bagdad and those in authority in the regions.

 

Second, the oil revenue in the past has failed to supply the residents of Iraq with a continuous supply of electricity and water due to endless corruption of authorities not only at a national level but at a regional and local level as well. This is being addressed by the current government and they are making significant progress, albeit not as fast as everyone would like (case in point Maliki).

 

Third, the on-going negotiations with Erbil presents a sizeable problem for those wishing to invest in Iraq, especially related to oil. Conflicts of interest happen all the time in every part of life. However, this constant flare up presents legality issues with those companies wishing to invest with Iraq. This means there must be a reliable history of successful negotiations with proper follow through. Funds must be allocated on time.

 

Lastly, a change in government can lead to instability in all sectors of the country. This last part has shown that Maliki and his cronies are beyond corrupt. A country that should have become stable after the fall of Sadam has only given way to further corruption or the continuation of such. Abadi is trudging through the muck and mire and getting things done. This process takes time as discovery needs to take place, investigations need to be handled then a fair and just prosecution of those actors need to be shown to the world that Iraq can stem the tide of corruption.

 

The Oil and Gas law, currently a draft, cannot simply be put into the budget as a paragraph to be implemented. In order to rectify the current situation, a proposal of forming a federal council that includes officials from the federal government, provinces and regions. This council then will be tasked with coordinating and negotiating between the Iraqi oil ministry and the provinces, this includes all provinces not just Erbil. The law will also task the feds with the planning and implementation of oil production throughout the entire country.

 

In order to implement the Oil and Gas law this requires a government that can successfully coordinate negotiations and follow through on those terms agreed upon. Once Iraq’s Federal Government has shown it can be responsible and dependable to whosever standards they must show, then and only then can the implementation of the Oil and Gas law, once itself is passed, be put into the budget.

 

The Oil and Gas law is a complex creature and Iraq must get it at least 75% right the first go. Otherwise the fragile country will fracture more than it has now.

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For the record the U.S. has poured billions into Iraq infrastructure including the repairs and upgrade of the Haditha Dam, WWTPs, WTPs (water and wastewater treatment plants), so school yards where kids play, are not floating in raw sewage. While Iraq's governance remains from the 50's, a ton has been, continues to be pumped into that nation. Some to continue to improve infrastructure, much commercial beyond oil. Iraq needs to get off its thumbs and get this done. The foot dragging is a boatload of manure.

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I Believe in :twocents:  Opinion freedoms ! To truly understand the involvement of the HCL getting Completed you must first understand the Kurds , the Iraqi Government is mostly made up of Shia Muslims & the Kurds are mostly Sunni . Most of the Sunnis that were kicked out of Iraq came back and started ISIS on the Syria side. The Daesh Party side started the ISIL movement which is Islamic State Islamic Levant. The Levant (/ləˈvænt/; Arabic: المشرق /ʔal-maʃriq/[1][5][6][7][8][9][10]) is an approximate historical geographical term referring to a large area in the eastern Mediterranean.. Fighting over the control of the Oil wells throwing sucker punches is the problems we face now on getting the HCL done properly is the Problem . The new President of Iraq is doing quit well figuring out the boycotters and removing them from Government positions to get this Job done.

 

Time is of the Essence

God has perfect timing

Gods Blessings

VIZOIRAQI

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Vizio, Excellent point, and considered that when I posted (the in fighting). In many ways no different than the 1800 US growth when immigrants came into NYC and each had own boroughs but fought the Irish, the Germans etc. Not much difference, except Iraq's has been going on since Ishmael.

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An agreement with the Kurds does not miraculously make an Oil and Gas Law. It never will because the Kurds are only one of 9 oil producing regions (albeit the largest in Iraq). That is the point.    

 

Oh look a grain of sand moved in Iraq... it's time to RV!

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  • 5 weeks later...

This is a brief synopsis as to why Iraq can't put the HCL in the Budget right now. This is more a high level overview as to the reasons and a brief to as what the draft will consist of. 

 

One would surmise all the Iraqi parliament has to do is include a paragraph in the draft of the budget, get it read and published in the gazette and voila! Immediate RV! It’s not that simple. Here is why.

 

The Oil and Gas law, currently a draft, cannot simply be put into the budget as a paragraph to be implemented. In order to rectify the current situation, a proposal of forming a federal council that includes officials from the federal government, provinces and regions. This council then will be tasked with coordinating and negotiating between the Iraqi oil ministry and the provinces, this includes all provinces not just Erbil. The law will also task the feds with the planning and implementation of oil production throughout the entire country.

 

In order to implement the Oil and Gas law this requires a government that can successfully coordinate negotiations and follow through on those terms agreed upon. Once Iraq’s Federal Government has shown it can be responsible and dependable to whosever standards they must show, then and only then can the implementation of the Oil and Gas law, once itself is passed, be put into the budget.

 

The Oil and Gas law is a complex creature and Iraq must get it at least 75% right the first go. Otherwise the fragile country will fracture more than it has now.

Theseus, Many believe that it was included in the 2016 Budget vote on Wednesday. I agree with you and Adam that it is not and will be held as separate legislation.

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Very well said about the Oil & Gas Law. This could go on for alone time, until they get the Older generation out of control.

Bring the younger, Newer, Educated Iraqi's, non-corrupt officials into the federal government to do the Oil & Gas Law,  "RIGHT".

 

And agree on it.........

 

Find a good place to put your Dinar, for it won't burn, get wet, stolen, it's going to be awhile.

 

This is Iraq !!!!!!!!!

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From what I understand is that the Kurds wanted that 17% as part of their share of that HCL (or part of the CURRENT HCA) also from what I gathered on the past days with the budget is that that 17% was in there somewhere so it IS possible that the HCL IS in the budget.....but we will not know 100% UNTIL the gazette has it printed and we are able to read it ourselves... forget what the POO-Roos say.... we wait...

 

GO RV... 

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GM DV, All will be revealed in due time. PM Abadi, GOI & Parliament have 100% made it crystal clear to the Kurds we fully support your 17 % share of the 2016 Budget. Now, Please do your part and adhere to the HCA. Also, The icing on the cake will be legislation of the Oil & Gas Law approved by the GOI and voted on by Parliament. POR approve & ratify then published in the Gazette. Positive movement and progress being made before our eyes.

GO RV!!

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Theseus, if all the things have to happen as you suggest, and I am not arguing, there will never be an RV.  How can Iraq possible get all those things done in any sort of a reliable fashion.  It could take years and when they get one part stabilized and move on to the next, previous parts could get raped and pillaged by aforementioned corrupt officials.  I think your scenario is not talking years but decades.  Am I totally wrong?  Did I miss your point.  Go ahead and tell me.

 

 I'm 58, single, been through three marriages so I know I'm always wrong. I'm sure this won't be any different.  I don't understand the mechanics of this "investment" any better than I do women I guess.  But, if this ever does hit and as old as I am, maybe I can just buy a few women and when they start to annoy me (like 6 weeks) I can just get another.  They can always be 35.

 

Boy did I get off track.  And when I hit the "Post" button am I gonna get a rash of .................well, maybe just a rash.  It's ok though.  The women part really is my fault even though I don't get it. Hahahaha

 

But the first paragraph is a legit question.  Thank you.

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It is my opinion that the dinar will revalue when the CBI feels the Iraqi economy can sustain the impact of such a revalue. Remember, when a currency revalues (is worth more against the dollar) everything in the marketplace must also undergo a price change. Prices for food and shoes WILL go up in response to the revalue of the currency. Let's say that here in the US the Treasury decided to increase the value of the dollar. Now you can buy a car with half the money. A pair of shoes will be bought for half of what you used to pay, UNLESS all commodities quickly undergo a respective increase in their sell prices. This cannot be done quickly or overnight. It must be done slowly, giving the marketplace time to adjust accordingly. Any other scenario would bring instant and fatal chaos to a country's economy. If anyone can find a currency revalue that goes against what I just said, then please feel free to enlighten me. Please don't submit Kuwait as an example. That was an entirely different currency situation.

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DWitte - I had/have a similar thought as you mentioned at the start of your post. Seems like Iraq is so FUBAR (Fouled Up Beyond Any Repair) that an Iraqi Dinar revalue is out of the question. My opinion is they only have to keep doing things that are beyond belief and understanding that is so backwards that they can postpone an Iraqi Dinar revalue indefinitely. I got into the investment a few years after the WMD rationale for going into Iraq was publicly proved false. The US and UK knew that. So why the EOs like 13303, etc.? I once heard all wars are Banker's wars. So, something (or somethings) else is in play. In my opinion, this something (or somethings) are pushing Iraq to get their business in order and get the RV on the books.

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how did  the  past  regimes  get  the dinar  up in the range of 3.oo  too 1.oo  for  the dinar ?    I  can  bet  the  gas  and oil law  wasn`t  even thought of  back in the day !  some one  has too have  big  balls  to say too central bank ,  "  o .k.  we are  confident  the dinar  can  with stand   ( xx.xx  amount  in value too the dollar )  I think  the  dame   problem  isn`t  attached too the h-c- l  at  all  ------   hcl  is  just  an  inter-country law saying  we will give you this much in %   of oil   or gas from your area  from budget ,  the dang  budget  has already gave 17 %  too the Kurdistan region , and  what was it  7%   to another region ,  all in the budget ...  so  lets get off the h c l  train for a second ...     the i.m.f.   gave Iraq a go  ahead  too place a value on the dinar  with the glad nods   from  world bank ,  who  the health   is  holding  back  the value  ???   I do think the  bass-tards  of  is-is    has  made this  a more  Shiite   situation ,  with the  raids on banks they  stole  dinar from .  and the  money from  oil they have stolen   daily ,,  it is  a  fine  fine  line  to have too   figure out  how to give value to a currency  the  insurgents   might have  tons of ,  that will just intensify  their cause !    {  I just  dang  dame  shoot  }  hope  they  do not re-print  all notes   from the is-is  crap !  ------------>  but  I  think abidi  has  a heck of a following  with anything  g.o.I.    and  he  can  ask or tell ,  cental bank  , lets  hit that  button   and honor  those new values ----------> another  crapper , honor those notes  we are going to have too jump threw a lot of hoops I bet to unload our  dinar now these  jack wads are all over the  world  as refugees ,  {  get  your paper work  in order  peeps  ...   you are going too need  it for sure  where  you bought them ,  how you  can about  getting them  ,  why  were you even in that region kind of  crap      :angry:   so  with these dang  new questions  of cash -in , or exchanges  we  must  thank  the  jack - wads  is-is   son of  a  ----  well enough  on that  !!!!      but  I do not even think  the h-c-l  is  a plart of  revalue  any more ---  the stability  of  Iraq   will  be  the factor -- and  from  a statement  from abide ----  "  we  do  not  want  or need  --- boots on the ground  or  troops "   we  need  valuable  information and resonance  information to bet hell out of insurgents  < ----- this guy is in it  too win      :peace:        { just my thoughts }  


sorry  that  valuable information on where the bad guys are  too beat hell out of them 

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SG7 - I agree. With all the news pouring out of Iraq, I think the RV will occur in the not to distant future. I think the first quarter of 2016 will be a very interesting quarter. I fully expect to hear some interesting and shocking Iraq and world news. I suspect the PTB want a few things I will never know for sure about before we are headed for a rewarding future. Hopefully no US or coalition service personnel will be in harms way.

I greatly appreciate our US service personnel and would like to Thank Them for their service to our Country. I would also like to Thank the service personnel of the coalition. You are appreciated. My humble request is to take a moment of silence to pray for these folks -their safety, well being, great success in their missions, and just to know they are appreciated - especially during this Christmas season.

For the Vietnam and other veterans, I would like to say, "Welcome Back, Welcome Home!" Whether you were on the battlefield or in the Hanoi Hilton, I was praying for you.

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