Problem with a 10 cent RV!

[rockfl9]

An RV must be a secret. No one can know in advance. Cant really plan for it.

So the CBI governor calls in the staff on Sunday morning and says " I just decided the new rate is to be 10 cents per dinar".  I'm the boss that's it, OK.

 

 

Now we know the smallest note is the 250 dinar , now worth the equivalent of 25 USD!

The word is out..

\

No one can make change . So

Joe Iraqi goes out for usual Tea and falafel. The price is usually 1000 dinar (86 cents US) but today it is marked down to 250 dinar ( 25 USD) . because that is the smallest the  merchant can charge.

 

Does anyone not see a problem here?

 

 

[zzztop]

They could use USD for change until smaller denoms are fully introduced.  They will never stop using the USD IMO.  For the record, I don't think we will see an RV.  A gradual increase over time...maybe.

[The Machine]

They could use USD for change until smaller denoms are fully introduced.  They will never stop using the USD IMO.  For the record, I don't think we will see an RV.  A gradual increase over time...maybe.

 

exactly most countries that start using the USD along side their own currency (mainly for reasons of their own currency being weak or prone to market fluctuations in the negative direction) never get rid of the dollar, eventually the CBI could come out with small change and the day of the dollar in Iraq would be a thing of the past in Iraq.

[SnowGlobe7]

lots of countries use both

[rockfl9]

exactly most countries that start using the USD along side their own currency (mainly for reasons of their own currency being weak or prone to market fluctuations in the negative direction) never get rid of the dollar, eventually the CBI could come out with small change and the day of the dollar in Iraq would be a thing of the past in Iraq.

I dont think you will find many US 1, 5 and 10s on the street. No US coins either! The "dollar "  is the 100 bill , used like a savings bond .

Remember this happened overnight on a whim of the CBI. Certainly would be noticed if the bank pre-loaded the economy with small US currency.

They would SUDDENLY need millions of US 1s and 5s  or local commerce crashes. . 

NOPE. Check off the 10 cent RV.

[Texstorm]

I kind of understand what you are trying to say Rock , and then the first thing that pops up in my head is , what if they went electronic " you know credit cards ", that would certainly bridge the gap until the small stuff was printed. The cost of plastic is cheap. I certainly see a lot of people doing it here , hell come to think of it they're using phones and barcodes as well. Just yesterday I was eating Mexican food down at El Palenque with a dear old friend and anyways I was all of Two Dollars short on cash, so I put it $2 on my cc. That's kind of like a small denom isn't it ?

[The Machine]

I kind of understand what you are trying to say Rock , and then the first thing that pops up in my head is , what if they went electronic " you know credit cards ", that would certainly bridge the gap until the small stuff was printed. The cost of plastic is cheap. I certainly see a lot of people doing it here , hell come to think of it they're using phones and barcodes as well. Just yesterday I was eating Mexican food down at El Palenque with a dear old friend and anyways I was all of Two Dollars short on cash, so I put it $2 on my cc. That's kind of like a small denom isn't it ?

The only problem with that is they just don't have the infrastructure in place to facilitate electronic payments everywhere, I'm sure the vast majority of business in done via market stalls and very small businesses, hell even in the UK small shops refuse to get electronic payment systems as the fees are extortionate on the vendor for the amount of trade the do.

[rockfl9]

The only problem with that is they just don't have the infrastructure in place to facilitate electronic payments everywhere, I'm sure the vast majority of business in done via market stalls and very small businesses, hell even in the UK small shops refuse to get electronic payment systems as the fees are extortionate on the vendor for the amount of trade the do.

Yes, plus unreliable electric.  

Even those paid with the smart card probably go to the bank and take all out in cash ASAP!

I get the picture that the MOF and CBI see that govt paydays are purposely spread out across the month to avoid running out of physical dinar.

[Texstorm]

Details Details Details ! When I encounter a problem, I make a decision and make it happen. Back in the day the banks hear in Texas couldn't cash my paycheck in physical cash upon demand " that means they needed notice" , so I took what they would give me , usually 5k at a time and I would deposit the rest. I fail to see how that is any different with any of the other banks.

[rockfl9]

Details Details Details ! When I encounter a problem, I make a decision and make it happen. Back in the day the banks hear in Texas couldn't cash my paycheck in physical cash upon demand " that means they needed notice" , so I took what they would give me , usually 5k at a time and I would deposit the rest. I fail to see how that is any different with any of the other banks.

The Devil is in the Details!

[Texstorm]

Yes it is Rock ! I use to pay people to do that , I just made the decisions. Plus 1

[Xtaxguy]

If the government of Iraq wants to revalue the IQD vs. the US dollar, it takes more than a press release.  It requires them to offer their declared price to one and all on unlimited quatities.  Since they would run out of gold, silver, and all other foreign currencies in their possession before they have bought in even 1% of the outstanding IQD's at an exchange rate of 10 cents, it won't be happening for very long.  Probably just long enough for the current crop of crooks to clean out the vaults and skip town.

 

I see only three ways we will ever recover more than a token part of our out of pocket costs for our IQDs:

 

1.  The US government acknowledges that it has always known that the asserted agreement for a large discount on oil purchases between it and the government of Iraq was a total fabrication; and that the US government knew all along that this fabrication was abetting the perpetration of a fraud on US citizens for the benefit of its client thugs in Iraq, yet said nothing; and, that in abject atonement of it's role in this fraud, the US Government is, therefore, buying in 90% of the IQDs each of us holds (if we wish to sell) at 110% of our cost for all of the IQDs we each own.  Each of us is thereby roughly "made whole," while retaining some upside potential just in case our government is lying to us...yet again.  And we should always assume that if the US Government says it, it must be a lie.  or,

 

2.  Very big third party players (e.g., major countries, top ten world banks) for some reason (none of which spring readilly to my mind) decide they are willing to pay more for IQDs purchased on the open market from the public than the price they would have to pay to the Iraq government for new IQDs (which, of course, it is willing to print unlimited quantities at the current prices).

 

3.  Peace suddenly breaks out throughout the Muslim world.  Millions throw down the AKs and go to get a real job.  Sharia law is amended to permit devout Muslims to interact with non-muslims in a civilied manner.  After a few generations, non-muslims begin to think that maybe honorable business can be done with muslims, and trade, tourism, and employment rise world wide.  As all economies prosper, all currencies appreciate in absolute terms, and the currencies formerly most depressed in relative value, also appreciate against other, historically stronger, currencies.  My great, great, great grandchildren at last sell by 5 million IQDs, and spend all the proceeds to buy a nice patio boat to party on up at the lake.

 

If you truly believe there are possibilities other than those listed above (in declining order of probability), please contact me at once.  I have some great business opportunities available for you!

 

 

 

[rockfl9]

I pick number 3.

That covers about 50 years. Could happen.

Not sure the lake will still be there though!

Most likely the IQD would have been replaced two times  and what you have is a rare collectors item.

SO, put them away in a dark cool place AND QUIT PLAYING WITH THEM!

[SocalDinar]

Thats a pretty good paycheck Texstorm!! Cash is King

As far as the topic goes I think that tea and falafel would still be 1000 dinar

the next day.

[Antietam]

There is a 4th option, Xtaxguy. It is the option I am waiting for. That the sovereignty of iraq is restored through the destruction of ISIS and oil begins to climb again. Without question, I think oil will rise again which will put Billions back in the coffers of the CBI. Whether the Persians will decide to quit killing each other is another question all together. I am hanging in there for option 4, which would, in all likelihood, increase the exchange rate, making this speculation profitable.

[rockfl9]

Antietam, do you really want to wait that long?????

[Antietam]

I have a five year timeline. I didn't mortgage my house to buy dinars, so I am not under any financial pressure to sell yet. I have patience to wait five years. At that point I will sell either for a profit (I hope), or break even, or possibly for loss. The only horrendous event in my opinion, would be a complete redenomination.

[SocalDinar]

I have a five year timeline. I didn't mortgage my house to buy dinars, so I am not under any financial pressure to sell yet. I have patience to wait five years. At that point I will sell either for a profit (I hope), or break even, or possibly for loss. The only horrendous event in my opinion, would be a complete redenomination.

I've done my five years and plus a few LOL

The CBI removed the fifty with a 30 day buy back notice. I'm sure alot of people everywhere lost money. If they can do this with the 50 they could do the same with any or all of their notes. That could get ugly

[Antietam]

A redenomination is our worst nightmare. With only website exchange sites, servicing several million dinar holders within an exchange window would get ugly very quickly. But I do not think a redenomination is coming any time soon. I feel safe holding for awhile. Maybe iraq can get squared away in time for me to make some money.

[SocalDinar]

I have not seen many articles lately of the counterfeit dinars In Iraq. But it was becoming a problem and the Central Bank declared that the private banks would be responsible for any counterfeit notes they accepted.  If this problem still exists it could push things along for new notes such as the new 25 K and possible 50 K notes we have heard about before

[Texstorm]

Amen brother SocalDinar ! We've done our time and if we added another 5 years to this and all of our time spent here , the damn payout should be Huge because anything else would have been for have not ! Y'all already know my reasons, and my beliefs and the only thing that would be of greater value would be eternal life! . I'll answer that question Rock ! Hell No ! For my Lord all of the time it takes, for a small gain of cash ! Hell no ! Anything less than a substantial gain would be a loss of time. Spiritually I am being filled more and more everyday just by being here and understanding what everyone is faced with, shall I inherit the kingdom of heaven , then every second would have been worth the journey.

I've done my five years and plus a few LOL

The CBI removed the fifty with a 30 day buy back notice. I'm sure alot of people everywhere lost money. If they can do this with the 50 they could do the same with any or all of their notes. That could get ugly

Amen brother SocalDinar ! We've done our time and if we added another 5 years to this and all of our time spent here , the damn payout should be Huge because anything else would have been for have not ! Y'all already know my reasons, and my beliefs and the only thing that would be of greater value would be eternal life!

Antietam, do you really want to wait that long?????

. I'll answer that question Rock ! Hell No ! For my Lord all of the time it takes, for a small gain of cash ! Hell no ! Anything less than a substantial gain would be a loss of time. Spiritually I am being filled more and more everyday just by being here and understanding what everyone is faced with, shall I inherit the kingdom of heaven , then every second would have been worth the journey.

[Xtaxguy]

Guys!

 

You can't sell unless there is a buyer, and you can't sell at a rational (let alone, stable) price unless there are buyers willing to pay an "adequate" price to induce the sellers to sell about the same quantity of Ds at that price.  Basic econ 101: in an open market, supply and demand will settle on a fairly stable price - big fluctuations are almost always proof of an unstable or a controlled market, and sometimes both.  So you are obviously hoping for a controlled market that can and will buy all Ds offered at a self-dictated price far above historical levels.  An action for which I cannot think of a rationale.

 

You have to ignore the small detail that the largest plurality in Iraq is Shiite (I sure wish I could spell that the way I want to!) and, therefore, strongly sympathetic to or loyal to Iran; and

 

that, despite 1,500 years of bloody conflict between them and the Sunnis, somehow peace and enlightenment will just happen, despite the Kurds, Russian meddling (if the jihadis are busy fighting each other, they won't be attacking Russia, they'll both be Russia's customers), etc; and,

 

that INCREASING the global oil supply by ten or so million barrells a day will somehow serve to increase oil prices rather than lower them below the current $45/bbl range; and,

 

that the government of Iraq, having filled its vaults with more dollars than exist in the world, is somehow for no reason discerable to me, will want to spend all of those dollars to redeem its outstanding currency at superpremium rates hundreds or thousands of times higher than current exchange rates, rather than spend them on, say, consumer goods and "free" services that will insure their incumbants' political security.

 

Sure wish I were still young enough to puff on your pipe!  It must be extraordinarily good stuff! 

Edited October 25, 2015 by Xtaxguy

[SocalDinar]

Never to old for that Taxguy but you could never smoke enough to get that high. To get the cartoon charector effect one must eat it.

Just make sure you have nothing planned for the next day or two

[Shabibilicious]

 

GO RV, then BV