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Luigi1

Could The Non Asset Backed USD Be The IQD Holdup?

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Luigi says...

Backdoc has a good article explaining the possible IQD RV delays.

Could Iraq be kicking the can down the road buying time waiting on the USA.

Long read but worth it.

Your views.

 

 

20 Sept 2015  Backdoc.

HAS THE HAND-OFF OF THE BATON FROM THE DOLLAR BASED RESERVE SYSTEM TO THE NEW MULTILATERAL SYSTEM BEGUN?

THIS WEEK WE SAW A DATA DEPENDENT FED USHER IN A NEW SET OF METRICS INTO THEIR DATA. TALK ABOUT GLOBAL FINANCIAL CONCERNS!

SINCE WHEN DOES THE U.S. FINANCIAL SYSTEM START TO CONSIDER OTHER COUNTRIES FINANCIAL PROBLEMS? MMMM

WELCOME TO THE “NEW GLOBAL REALITY” !

AS WE BEGIN TO TRANSFORM AN UGLY CATERPILLAR INTO A BEAUTIFUL BUTTERFLY, WE SEE A NON ASSET BASED FIAT SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGIN ITS PAINFUL METAMORPHOSIS.

THE COCOON OF DEBT HAS ENCASED THE WORLD! IT’S TIME TO BREAK OUT!

IN JUST THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT PEURTO RICO AND GREECE CONTINUE TO BE IN DEFAULT…WHILE NEW ADDITIONS ARE ON THEIR WAY!

EARLIER THIS WEEK WE SAW JAPAN GET DOWNGRADED ON THEIR DEBT! RIGHT AFTER THE CLOSE OF A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN MARKETS FRIDAY, WE ALSO SEE FRANCE GET DOWNGRADED!

LET’S NOT FORGET LAST WEEK WE SAW BRAZIL GET DOWNGRADED TO JUNK STATUS! MMMM

THE FED BLAMED THE EMERGING MARKET WEAKNESSES (ESPECIALLY CHINA) AS THEIR “REAL” REASON FOR NOT MOVING ON THE RATE. MMMM
WE RECENTLY SAW CHINA DEVALUE THEIR CURRENCY TO HELP STEM THE MARKET ROUTE ON STOCKS! MANY PROFESSIONALS ARE CALLING CHINA’S STOCK MARKET A PONZI SCHEME, DUE TO ITS INFLATED ASSET PRICES.

AS CHINA HAS TRIED TO INTERVENE IN THEIR MARKETS, THEY CONTINUE TO BURN THROUGH THEIR CASH RESERVES. SOME EXPERTS HAVE STATED THAT THEY HAVE 18 WEEKS LEFT BEFORE THOSE RESERVES ARE EXHAUSTED…IF THEY CONTINUE TO support THEIR MARKETS AT THE SAME PACE OF EXPENDITURE!

JAPAN HAS TO TAKE ACTION AS WELL. WHY?BECAUSE WHEN CHINA DEVALUED THEIR CURRENCY IT CAUSED A MAJOR RISE IN THE YEN. SO WILL JAPAN DO MORE QE TO DEVALUE ITS CURRENCY AS WELL? WHERE WILL AN ACCIDENT OCCUR?

WITH THE WORLD IN DEFLATION IT’S ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE A SERIOUS LINK IN THE WORLD CHAIN BREAKS! WHERE WILL IT HAPPEN? MMMM TAKE YOUR PICK!

JAPAN HAS THE HIGHEST DEBT TO GDP WITH IT BEING OVER 400 TIMES! WOW! IMO THESE PROBLEMS ARE UNSUSTAINABLE! MARKETS WILL KEEP GOING FROM THE UPPER LEFT TO THE LOWER RIGHT ON THE CHARTS AS THE DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL CONTINUES!

HOW LONG WILL THE OLD SYSTEM CONTINUE TO FUNCTION? OR MAYBE I SHOULD SAY, WHEN WILL “THE ACCIDENT ON PURPOSE” HAPPEN?MMMM

THERE ARE CLUES EVERYWHERE! THE CEO OF JP MORGAN JUST SAID YESTERDAY THAT WE SHOULD EXPECT SEVERE VOLATILITY IN THE BOND MARKETS ONCE INTEREST RATES BEGIN TO RISE. THIS WILL PUT BANKS IN A POTENTIAL RESERVE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM! WHY?

WITH INTEREST RATES AT ZERO IT HAS CREATED A DISTORTION IN THE WAY INVESTMENT MONEY IS ALLOCATED! THERE ARE ASSET BUBBLES THAT ARE READY TO BURST! THE BOND MARKET IS ONE OF THOSE BUBBLES!

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INVESTORS WANT TO REALLOCATE THEIR FUNDS IN A MORE NORMAL BALANCE? THE BOND MARKETS COULD COME UNDER SERIOUS PRESSURE.

RECENTLY WE SAW CHINA DUMP ABOUT 10% OF THEIR BOND HOLDINGS TO support THEIR CURRENCY ROUTE AND STOCK MARKET CRASH!

IF JAPAN AND CHINA BOTH DUMP TREASURIES QUICKLY, WE WILL SEE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING OCCUR! THIS SUDDEN DROP IN LIQUIDITY WOULD BE DEVASTATING TO MARKETS, CREDIT AND LIQUIDITY FOR BANKS! MONEY COULD LITERALLY SEIZE UP!

IF IT GETS BAD ENOUGH, WE COULD SEE AN ACCIDENT! THE PROBLEM IS SIMILAR IN EUROPE PRESENTLY, AS THEY ARE DOING QE THERE.

THE PROBLEM IN EUROPE IS, THE ECB IS SAYING THAT THEY ARE BUYING UP MORE BONDS THAN CURRENTLY EVEN EXISTS. MANY PROFESSIONALS HAVE QUESTIONED THEIR ACTION ON THIS AS EVEN BEING LEGAL! THAT ACTION MAY EVENTUALLY BE CHALLENGED FOR ITS LEGALITY.

AS WE LOOK AT EMERGING COUNTRIES WE SEE INDONESIA DEVALUED THEIR CURRENCY AS WELL. IT SEEMS ALL EMERGING COUNTRIES ARE UNDER THE SAME PRESSURE. VIETNAM DID THE SAME BY WIDENING ITS MANAGED FLOAT RANGE TO ACCOMMODATE THE RECENT CHINA DEVALUATION.

SOME IN DINARLAND HAVE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT IRAQ WILL ALSO DEVALUE ITS CURRENCY. SOME EVEN RECOMMENDED TO SELL OUT! REALLY? WOW! REMEMBER WHAT I SAID ABOUT CHASING THE WRONG RABBIT TRAILS?

WELL, THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN OUR NOSE IS ON THE WRONG TRAIL! WE GET IRRATIONAL AND DISTORTED VIEWS BECAUSE FOLKS ARE LOOKING ONLY AT THE HAPPENINGS OF ONE COUNTRY RATHER THAN THE REALITIES OF THE GLOBAL PICTURE!

IMO, IT IS IRRELEVANT WHETHER IRAQ DECREASES ITS VALUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE DONE. THAT TEMPORARY ISSUE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MONETARY REFORM!

PERSONALLY, I HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE ENCOURAGED ABOUT THE DINAR, AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHER CURRENCIES I HOLD! REMEMBER…

I TOLD YOU THINGS WOULD GET MUCH WORSE BEFORE THEY GOT BETTER! WELL, THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THAT DECLINE!

WHEN WILL IT END DOC?   SLAP! SORRY NO DATE OR RATE!

THIS COMING WEEK SHOULD REALLY RAMP THINGS UP IN A NUMBER OF WAYS.

IRAQ APPEARS TO BE CONCLUDING THE LONG AWAITED LAWS IN PREPARATION OF A RATE CHANGE!

AS WE END THE FISCAL YEAR FOR THE U.S. IN SEPTEMBER, COULD WE SEE A NEW BEGINNING AND A NEW GLOBAL REALITY IN OCTOBER? MMMM

GOD ONLY KNOWS BUT SEVERAL THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER!

1. LAWS ARE CONCLUDING AND ARE READY TO IMPLEMENT IN IRAQ.

2. MARKETS ARE IN BEAR MARKET TERRITORY AND SEEKING A “NEW GLOBAL REALITY VALUE” AS THE ASSET REPRICING IS UNDERWAY.

3. ONE COUNTRY AND 1 TERRITORY ARE IN DEFAULT WHILE DOWNGRADES TO BRAZIL, JAPAN, AND NOW FRANCE ELEVATE GLOBAL RISKS!

4. AS THE WORLD BEGINS TO DUMP EXCESS DOLLARS, WE CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TOWARDS THE MULTILATERAL SYSTEM. LIQUIDITY ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO SURFACE AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT REQUIRING A BAILOUT FROM GUESS WHO? THAT’S RIGHT…THE SDR IN THE IMF IN THE FORM OF TRN’S!

5. THE ANNOUNCEMENT PROMISED BY CONGRESS ON IRAN FOR THE 17TH NEVER CAME! MMMM WILL MITCH MCONNELL BE RIGHT? WILL THEY BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RELEASING IRAN FROM SANCTIONS ON THE 8TH OF OCTOBER?

6. LET’S NOT FORGET “THE MAIN EVENT”… THE GOVT. SHUT DOWN! THE LAST FEW DAYS OF SEPT. ARE PACKED AND STACKED! GRAB SOME POPCORN AND ENJOY THE NEW REALITY SHOW! WE ARE “ALL IN” …RIGHT???

WITH THE GLOBAL DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL, HOW LONG WILL IT BE UNTIL EVERY COUNTRY AND PERSON DEVALUES TO JUNK STATUS!

IT’S TIME FOR A NEW BEGINNING!

IT’S TIME TO EMPTY THE “JUNK IN THE TRUNK”!

“WHEN THINGS ARE THE WORST, THEY ARE THE BEST”!

 
 
 

 
 
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