Popular Post TrinityeXchange Posted August 13, 2015 Popular Post Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 (edited) Hello my friends. I thought I would drop my worth of an opinion on a brief summary addressing what it is that we are watching from a monetary policy perspective. We all know that a country can RV its currency through its central bank when it gets ready with the caveat being whether or not the rate chosen is sustainable. We've even observed Iraq do this in the past on multiple occasions with the iqd. Iraqi monetary policy makers have proven then that if they change their currency's exchange rate, they are adept enough at what they are doing to maintain it. That is proven. What else is proven is that in none of those cases, when the exchange rate was lifted, was there any warning of an impending change. We simply were awakened to a new rate. Should we expect any alarms if the rate were to rise significantly and to the range we are all hoping for? I truly doubt it....what about you (esp those who continually ask for a date/rate)? So do we sit around in the dark blindly hoping for rate change without any empirical data to back our claim? Definitely not! Against the argument for an immediate hike in rate is a observable shift resulting in the same. What we see taking place in the news points us in the direction of a more organic rise in the currency's rate instead of an abrupt one. The articles posted out of Iraq discuss the cultivation of a market economy while distancing itself from its current rentier state (a state deriving most of its revenue from rates placed on [or renting of] natural resources). Consider these critical points in the news: Tariffs Anti Money Laundering Private Sector Loans Rafidain Rasheed Reform Unrestricting Private Banks Capital Market Upgrades Government Corruption & Waste Securing the Environment Investment Laws Those are 9 right off the cuff of my mind and it is a hefty list. So what does every item on that list have in common? Ensuring the momentum of the local currency! Please consider that the more the local currency is used the more valuable it becomes, naturally. Here I will break down most of those points in a bit more detail. point 1- ensures that the domestic market place can remain competitive against external markets. it helps safeguard the value in the local market from being made obsolete from cheaper imports. points 2 + 7 - controls the money and its efficiency toward commercial drivers. through these mechanisms, currency controls through monetary and fiscal policy direct the money to fulfil the lean purpose of its creation. the more concentrated the money becomes the more impactful it becomes the more valuable it becomes. points 3 + 4 + 5 - unleashes power to the private sector. government controlled banks no longer determine the marketplace through corrupt, inefficient, and outdated means. proven banking models determine the risks/rewards involved in loaning to successful business plans. this helps guarantee a successful, thriving and competitive marketplace. points 6 + 8 + 9 - investment into business is paramount to a thriving economy. capital (money) is the key component to economic output....the more capital a business has the more it can produce for consumption. capital markets are CRITICAL for any successful economy. in order though for capital flows into the country to take place, foreign investors must be confident that their investments are both safe and governed by law. they must be assured that once they pour $1B into the country that a coup wont rise up overnight and seize their funds without recourse. The plan is already in motion. The plan for a thriving economic environment lead by a modernized and regulated market economy. So even if we don't see an immediate hike take place overnight (which is very much a possibility i might add), the news is confirming to us that according to plan there will be a dinar a whole heck of a lot stronger than today's value. be blessed my friends! Edited August 13, 2015 by TrinityeXchange 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Candy01 Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 OUTSTANDING post, Trinity, thanks MUCH!! :bravo: :D 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oregonrealtor Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 Sorry to say, but none of these 9 items have or are happening. They nixed the tarriff laws and everything else is all talk, talk, talk. Lofty plans that sound good but the GOI or CBI seem unable to move anything forward. Hopefully Abadi can kick some more butt and get things rolling again - as usual, time will tell. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveG Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 I like your logic, thanks Trinity 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrinityeXchange Posted August 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 (edited) Sorry to say, but none of these 9 items have or are happening. They nixed the tarriff laws and everything else is all talk, talk, talk. Lofty plans that sound good but the GOI or CBI seem unable to move anything forward. Hopefully Abadi can kick some more butt and get things rolling again - as usual, time will tell. i respectfully disagree. many of these items (not all) are either happening, will be re-attempted, or are seriously on the cards. the only one that is suspect right now is rafidain & rasheed bank reformation. ....here is something right on time....it is more than just talk my friend: (*) Aug 13 2015 Iraq to endorse new investment law next week The legislation has been seen as a positive move towards raising the country's attractiveness among foreign investors. Iraq's parliament is expected to endorse in the coming week the new investment law in the hope of supporting the private sector, attracting more foreign investments, as well as ending corruption and red tape. The new law will include amendments to Law No. 2 of 2010, which amended Law No. 13 of 2006. The move comes as thousands of Iraqis took to the streets over the past days demanding political and economic reforms in the country. "The old law was not enough and it did not handle problems that the investment sector is facing in Iraq," said MP Najeeba Najeeb, member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee. "We held a number of meetings and conferences with local and foreign experts, and we have arrived at a conclusion that new legal amendments should be made." Najeeb pointed out that the old investment law provided more power to the central government, while also setting obstacles for foreign investors to acquire land in the country. "The amendments will decentralize the decision-making authority and streamline procedures so as to allow investors to acquire lands within 15 days," she added. Shaker Al Zameli, head of the Baghdad Investment Commission, said the previous legislation was not entirely repressive, as it gave investors the right to obtain project permits within 45 days and offered a three-year tax exemption. However, he admitted that administrative corruption and bureaucracy have hindered the law's implementation. "Amendments in the new law are a step in the right direction, especially since these will give investors the right to refer to international arbitration if necessary. The old law lacked this provision," Al Zameli said. He also revealed that the number of investment projects in Iraq since 2010 reached 320, valued at about USD 15 billion. MP Mithaq Al Hamidi, another member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, said the existing law contains several impediments to attracting investments. She welcomed the new law's endorsement next week, "along with other political and legislative reforms". Edited August 13, 2015 by TrinityeXchange 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGlobe7 Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 Trinity...i said this a few weeks back.....you bring a lot to the table and we appreciate ya!!! I see movement in what you are saying...i also say that none of this is "just now happening" this has been in the works for a while...Abadi is working hard and moving Iraq forward Again my friend..thank you 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boosterbglee Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 Thanks Trinity, appreciate you taking the time to give us your ! It is worth more than to me! Thanks Again! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tedro Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 Trinity, excellent post, well thought out, factual and articulate......... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris2028 Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 Thanks Trinity. Having read some of your comments on other posts, I could quickly tell you have done your homework on economics and know what your talking about. Thanks for bringing this information! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freedomwish Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 Thanks Trinity!! Blessings!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiljor Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 Well thought out Trinity, your capabilities to process the information coming from the news you and we read are accurate. We have seen progress on a constant basis, and lets not forget about the issues and news we DON'T get to see that perhaps go on behind closed doors. Iraq must give power to its currency and make it worth foreign investment, that coupled with its own citizens being able to purchase a life they so deserve. This is a carefully orchestrated game of chess, with the entire world watching and waiting to see the outcome. Their is so much at stake here, not just us here in DV but the future of a entire nation. I am convinced this will mature into what we all hope for, we just have to hang in there and let the powers that be do what they must. The signs are there, oil is flowing, money is moving, investments happening, GOI in place, banking system coming on line, criminals from the past being eradicated and on and on.... Thanks for your post and insight, as someone said, "your 2 cents have much more value" and is very much appreciated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stealthwarrior Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 What we are watching is slower than watching an oak tree grow.the tree will be grown and dead by the time the RV happens. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrinityeXchange Posted August 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 What we are watching is slower than watching an oak tree grow.the tree will be grown and dead by the time the RV happens. if you don't mind me asking, how long does it typically take for a country to transition from a totalitarian state where the economy is entirely controlled by government to a fully democratic one with a free market economy and free floating currency? i have asked myself this question many times and the more i questioned myself the more i realized that my initial expectations were heavily shaped by the rv propaganda of gurus. as time progressed and i began to study the topic for myself, i realized the difficulties that lie ahead of real regime change. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haymon Posted August 13, 2015 Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 OK, Sir, I want to meet you. Your info is so good and you have a head on your shoulders... Just as soon as airfare is not an issue. LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justchecking123 Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 Well informed post. However...any shift in political and economic power (money) goes back to the US dollar. That won't change. Forget the infrastructure for a moment...The lack if electricity, etc...The US knew this would be the result. Maliki was a tool that went south emotionally in the end, but do you really believe the US would let the power axis (money) shift literally overnight? I day trade...it's all supply and demand, the dinar needs something to back it plain and simple. Iraq will take YEARS not a couple weeks to restructure what The US basically demolished in 2003. I want to be wrong, but like you TX, I remain grounded, and will continue to let people know they should do the same. People's emotions are what leads to lack of disciplined thinking. I've learned that over time, and hope people read this with an open mind. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robbby Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 Great post & hats off to you for your insights that enlighten little old peons like me! Go RV! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siberian_shaddow Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 (edited) Thank you Trinity, much appreciated. It truly seems like a plan in motion when you put it together like you did. It sure does make things interesting. Edited August 14, 2015 by siberian_shaddow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandfly Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 THANKS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laid Back Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 Thanks TX I always appreciate your input.! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DinarThug Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 What we are watching is slower than watching an oak tree grow.the tree will be grown and dead by the time the RV happens. Ya But Iraq Is In The Desert Where They Grow Palm Trees Which Actually Grow Much Faster ! Google It - It's True ! And If U Can Prove The Clown Wrong - U Get To Pick Ur Prize ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyLadiesDaddy Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 Well Prof, a college education and it didn't even cost $200,000.00 if you don't mind me asking, how long does it typically take for a country to transition from a totalitarian state where the economy is entirely controlled by government to a fully democratic one with a free market economy and free floating currency? i have asked myself this question many times and the more i questioned myself the more i realized that my initial expectations were heavily shaped by the rv propaganda of gurus. as time progressed and i began to study the topic for myself, i realized the difficulties that lie ahead of real regime change. Japan still hasn't come back to pre WW2, if you were to ask the Average person on the street. Neither has Germany, though I suspect the Rothschild's may think different. Ya But Iraq Is In The Desert Where They Grow Palm Trees Which Actually Grow Much Faster ! Google It - It's True ! And If U Can Prove The Clown Wrong - U Get To Pick Ur Prize ! NO ONE PROVES DA CLOWN WRONG. LOL Not even da fly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodandStaff Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 (edited) Sandfly Trinity...it's been said you can look smarter by surrounding yourself with smart people....lol, looks like I got that one covered!!! ;o) Excellent analysis! Thugs....I'll take one of them thar prizes...but like LGD I'm not gonna try and take them odds...I just figured maybe we can get one of them for the price of a twelve pack...or so!!! ;o) Edited August 14, 2015 by RodandStaff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stealthwarrior Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 I wish I had an answer for your question,Trinity.I believe Iraq is trying to get out of paying billions of dollars to holders of the current currency.that just makes common sense.I wouldn't pay $20 for something I could get for a dollar.too many obstacles for Iraq to RV anytime soon.I DO BELEIVE that Iraq WILL do an RV at 1 to 1 but only after they print a new currency or delete the zero's from current currency.why would you pay $25,000 for a bill when you could pay $25.China RV'ed their currency 3 times so far this WEEK..so as far as Iraq goes,it has been 10 plus years now,so who knows?like Adam has stated more than once Iraq DOES NOT have to RV at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneysoon Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 Thanks Brother! Again, your finger is on the pulse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easy Posted August 14, 2015 Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 Sandfly to you Trinity! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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