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Most Gulf markets give preliminary exit - Analyst


moneysoon
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By Mohamed Farouk


Kuwait-Mubasher: Arab and global market Technical Analyst Ibrahim Al Filkawy told Mubasher that all Gulf markets, with the exception of Bahrain's, witnessed a fluctuating performance during the last week. 


He added Bahrain Bourse ignored the change in oil prices to maintain its upward trend, backed by the transfer of stocks ownership.


The oil prices still affect all markets, the analyst said, adding that maintaining liquidity at the same levels will not boost most markets.


Al Filkawy said that most Gulf markets broke all the previously mentioned support levels. He expected the markets to exhibit a sideways-to-bearish trend till the end of February.


In case the benchmark index crossed the support levels, he gave investors three advices; the first of which is to sell and wait then enter once again to make up for losses after markets become more stable.


The second one is to keep shares in the market and wait, then take the right decision based on the status quo and prospects.


Al Filkawy also advised investors to sell half the amount at the best rebound then buy after stocks drop and stabilize at the best support levels.



Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) gave a sign of preliminary exit and its benchmark index may move sideways between the 6590-support level and the 6670-resistance level, Al Filkawy said, adding that in case of breaking the support level, investors are encouraged to follow one of the above recommendations.


 Al Filkawy went on saying that the Saudi Stock Exchange (TDWL) gave a sign of preliminary exit and its benchmark index may move sideways between the 9000 –support level and the 9400 –resistance level. In case of breaking the support level, investors are encouraged to follow one of the above recommendations.
 

Qatar Exchange (QE) gave a sign of preliminary exit and its benchmark index may move sideways between the 12400 –support level and the 12650 –resistance level. In case of breaking the support level, investors are encouraged to follow one of the above recommendations.


Muscat Securities Market (MSM) gave a sign of preliminary exit, the analyst noted, adding that its benchmark index may move sideways between the 6650 –support level and the 6550 –resistance level. In case of breaking the support level, investors are recommended to follow one of the above recommendations.


Dubai Financial Market (DFM) gave a sign of preliminary exit and its benchmark index may move sideways between the 3800 –support level and the 3900 –resistance level. In case of breaking the support level, investors are recommended to follow one of the above recommendations.

 

As for Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX), it is fine to stay and speculate above the 4650-support level. Breaking this level gives a sign of preliminary exit then its benchmark index may move sideways between the 4550 –support level and the 4650 –resistance level. 

 

Concerning Bahrain Bourse (BB), it is fine to stay and speculate above the 1450 -support level. The benchmark index targets 1470 and 1480 points respectively. Al Filkawy concluded his analysis, advising investors to stop trading in case the index closed below the mentioned support level.  Translated by Julian Nabil

 

 

The above practice is what I wrote about in the thread from this past weekend with the new proposed Money Transfer Company that does not seem to have made its debut. The Budget can be published in the Gazette, the HCL can be made into law, but I am still under the belief that Iraq will follow certain Nation Building principles before we see what we want to see. Notice the article does not comment on how to play the ISX. Iraq is an outlier who does not possess the pedigree to offer definitive speculation except, to buy low and sell high.

 

I of course am going long and simply waiting them out on the one's I am holding and purchasing diamonds in the rough. So again I bring up the fact the market was said to make leaps once the Budget was passed, stated by the head of the ISX. OK let's see what happens... Just like any other market, the ISX will react by the sentiment of its subscribers. The Iraqi Bourse has a host of subscribers that have MORE on their minds than the Budget and HCL. Look for slight improvement though in the next two weeks as gas prices stabilize to a new normal. Some use the market as "comfort food" if they possess a speculative appetite.

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ISX-Men,

 

The market today is a buyer's buffet. The non-Iraqi investor is playing the game very conspicuously . Just like the rest of the markets stated above, the ISX is also on the down tick as it relates to share price. If you have the stomach, there are some diamonds in the rough right now. Some may hit trending lows by the end of the week if things do not turn for the better. If you love catfishing you picked the right honey hole.

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Have you looked at the stocks today. It is a bottom-feeder's Bonanza. Like I said yesterday, if you believe in the ISX, your play now can reap serious rewards when this sucker rebounds. These prices have surpassed the summer frenzy that some participated in and reaped a harvest. Notice who is buying and selling at this low price point. If the patterns follows... time is of the essence. Sunday should be interesting as the determiner as how low it can go.

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from what i am seeing the non-iraqi is continuing to dump their shares.  typically what i have been seeing is that the non-iraqi is going liquid and has been attributing to maybe somewhere just above 10% of market volume.  today however was out of the ordinary.  non-iraqi selling volume was :

 

Grand Total 83 630526679 285362720.1

 

285B which was more than 25% of the volume moved today!  they dumped bank stocks in a major way.  

 

additionally the number of trades was high for non-iraqis coming in somewhere at about 18% of total trades.  much of which was selling pressure.  typically i am seeing non-iraqis transact less than 10% of trade activity.  

 

overall my take is that the non-iraqi investors are going liquid and planning to wait for the markets to rebound.  the iraqi investor however is trading the market.  this is reflected in the high number of trades taking place lately which have been well above 400 trades per session.  however they are not taking long positions.  

 

money, what are you seeing differently?

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TrinityeXchange,

 

You saw what I saw... We dumped a heck of a lot and the Iraqi bought it up and not just a few handful of stocks. However, the most poignant pattern I am speaking of is how the Market reacts when the bottom begins to fall. This pattern is akin to what happened this summer. That's why I stated that if you have the stomach, one could ride the waves like they were ridden this past summer. Moreover, if I had to choose which group I would like to see demonstrate growth in this strategy, it would be the Iraqis, for several reasons.

 

Remember the cat-fishing creed: "It's a good thing to be able to make money regardless of the direction of the Market." Again, its a Bottom feeding frenzy, too bad non-iraqis are not fishing because they are killing them.

 

Blessings,

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thanks for your input my friend.  it is always well received.

 

the thing about the current market is that it is near impossible for folks like us to participate.  it appears as if the market is overtaken with day traders taking small percentages.  our current configuration does not allow us to trade the market that responsively.  another downer is the isc has not opened the ability for us to short the market, making money on downswing.  heck, we can't even bet the index yet.  i wonder how long before these modern trading methods are operationalized in the isx.  

 

be blessed my friend.

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TX,

 

I hear you on the shorting strategy. Like I said before, when I was introduced to Level 2 trading I about lost it. I made mine before the bell everyday, it was amazing.

 

There is a way to be more active on the ISX. One could "up their game" by using limit orders. Our Broker allows us to place range orders and even special conditions. While the market is not where we want it yet, we do possess "a few" capabilities that a savvy investor can use to help "level the playing field" when competing with local investors. However, when we can actively trade, oh what a day!

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ooph!  i was just checkin it out and saw that there are more brokers than there are stocks to trade, lol!

 

Don't know what you were checking out but we actually know how to count in this section of DV. Even if it were true, that would mean that the consumer would get a better deal as that would indicate fierce competition amongst the Brokers. You might want to late night troll somewhere else... :banhammer:

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and by the way, first time looking at their page, this is what i saw : 

 

Market Summary
Main Index
70.49
Change
2.50
Change %
3.43%
Value Traded
969,546,256
Shares Traded
1,462,700,200
Trades
495
Symbols Traded
47
Symbols Up
30
Symbols Down
4
Flat
13
 

Broker List

 

Baghdad Company

Al-Abrar Company

Baram Al-Khair Company

Al Ithmar Company

Alawael company

Wahat Al-Nakeel Company

International United Company

Credit company

DarAl-Salam company

Al-Sharqiya Company

Al-Batek Company

Zahrat Alkhalij Company

warkaa company

Economy Free Company

Umal Rabieain Company

Elaf Company

Okadh Company

Al-Mutahida Company

alKassab Brokerage Company

Tameam Company

Al-Forat Company

Al-Iraq Company

Dijila Company

North Company

Al-Rafidain Company

Al-Hayat Company

Al-Baraka Company

Jawhara Brokerage Company

AL jazera Brokerage Company

Al-FawzCompany

Al-Hikma Company

A-Wafa'a Company

Al-Hadher Company

Al-Nibras Company

Rabee Securities

Al-Waha Company

Kurdistan Company

Al-Qidwa Company

Atlas Company

Al-Aseel Company

Al-Karmal Company

Babylon Co.

Ahli United Company

ALhamy Company

Al-Sameem Company

Naseem Al-Shmal Company

Noor Al-Wamidh Company

AL-dalmaa

 

so if i'm wrong, i'm wrong..........i admit it

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Two things, #1 Misinformation can cause one to miss out on very serious opportunities. Unlike those who are only speculating on the currency, ISX subscribers are already making or loosing money NOW. We openly question remarks about the ISX especially when opinion is presented as fact. No harm and no foul we just shoot straight in this section...to the best of our ability!

 

#2 As it relates to the screen shot you posted, the traded companies (47) are simply the ones that traded that day and are neither the complete list of stock opportunities that one can take advantage of and make serious gains, nor does one know how many Brokers actually actively trade.  At any rate, the list of opportunities found below outnumber the number of current Brokers. 

 

http://www.isx-iq.net/isxportal/portal/companyGuideList.html

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The short answer is no. There are several reasons a stock may not trade on the ISX:

 

1) There is not a price match. The bid and offer do not match. On the ISX the stock will be listed as Not Trading.

2) The stock is Suspended from trading due to a rules violation usually a reporting error or failure to meet some other regulatory specification.

3) The stock is Suspended from trading due to an AGM- This is a corporate meeting in which the Corporate Board meets which often is accompanied with very generous benefits voted upon as a benefit for its shareholders. On the ISX, this period lasts about 15 days. Some stock companies hold two AGM's per year.

 

I hope this helps a little. The ISX is a GREAT opportunity with GREAT RISKS and GREAT REWARDS...

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so, honest question:  do iraqi stocks not trade every day the market is open?  I know a little about U.S. markets and nothing about the ISX.

hi staunch.  some stocks go a session without begin traded.  some stocks are suspended from trading by the isc but mostly stocks that are not traded is simply because traders were not interested.

 

ps.  i like money's answer above.  it is a lot more technical.

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Ps.103 Bless the Lord, O my soul: and all that is within me, bless his holy name.

 

My watch-list stocks are about the only ones doing anything BBOB and HBAY. The non-iraq is still selling off. Only BBOB and HBAY are being played like it should be in times like these. Today was a watch day for me. I expect the stalemate on price matching to end in "short term" ...boy is that relative. I also believe BBOB will be an indicator of the market turning around. However, in the mean time, one can watch successful day trading on BBOB for your viewing pleasure :twocents:

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