Luigi1 Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 from Iraq Business News... GDP Forcasters See 2015 Rebound. By Mark A. DeWeaver. Last month Barcelona-based economics consultancy FocusEconomics launched an interesting new product—a survey of professional forecasters for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The section on the Iraqi economy is particularly useful given the lack of attention this subject normally receives. It includes consensus projections for 25 macro variables going out to 2019 along with numbers from each contributor for this year and next. All but two of the ten participants in the Iraq survey expect faster GDP growth this year. The consensus forecast calls for 3.5% growth in 2015, following a mere 0.1% for 2014, with a return to 5%+ growth rates in the 2016-2019 time frame. (See chart.) This ‘V’-shaped recovery scenario is plausible for three reasons. First, Parliament is now expected to pass a federal government budget for the first time in well over a year. While the recent fall in oil prices has imposed new constraints on spending, restarting projects that had been halted during last year’s budget impasse is bound to provide a significant economic stimulus. Second, progress in the fight against ISIS is also likely. This will not only have a positive effect on business sentiment but may also help to stimulate domestic and international trade by making truck travel safer on the major highways heading north and west of Baghdad. Finally, oil exports continue to grow despite the security situation. December shipments reached 2.94 mn barrels per day (bpd), a level last seen in 1980. A further increase to 3.2 mn bpd is expected this year—a 31% increase over the 2014 average of 2.45 mn bpd that will partially mitigate this month’s price collapse. The FocusEconomics panel’s call for a GDP rebound in 2015 second quarter is a good one. Increased government spending, improved security, and higher oil exports should make this a year of recovery for the Iraqi economy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandfly Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 SO ARE THEY GOING TOO PUT POWER TO THE DINAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palmtree1970 Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 It sure would help poor Iraqis have a chance in life and divert a lot of violence and replace it with enjoying life better if only the dinar was to rise ....and I can replace work with fishing in the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big_J Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davis411 Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 what happened, am i seeing actual news from luigi??? in the news forum. My god aliens have taken luigi away, who is this impersonator???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wbuse984 Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hopefully they buried the Pod deep...lol...thanks for the post Luigi, good "non-poo-roo" info...liking the encouraging news cycle of late on Iraq... :bump: :bump: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiljor Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 Thank you Luigi for the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zzztop Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 What a misleading headline. Iraq is going to pull the Mideast Region out of recession? No. No it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tedro Posted February 21, 2015 Report Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's from sleazy Luigi so it cannot be misleading....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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