DISCUSSION ON CURRENCY EXCHANGE FROM THE IRAQI ECONOMIST'S SITE - WOW

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Full dentex *: financial budget of the Federal Republic of Iraq for the fiscal year 2015, the pros and cons, analytical criticism
- Republic of Iraq for the fiscal year 2015, the pros and cons, analytical criticism

- PUBLISHED ON 01.08.2015

Introduction: Since the days drew me, within a group of prominent writers and intellectuals, colleague and friend Dr. Sabah al-Azzawi, an important question is whether located on the popular masses tax burden to finance the deficit ...


Introduction : days ago drew me, within a group of prominent writers and intellectuals, colleague and friend Dr. Sabah al-Azzawi, an important question is whether located on the popular masses tax burden to finance the financial budget of the government for the 2015 deficit, despite the existence of corruption and waste? In the opinion of the so-called burden of taxes or consequences, incidence of taxation)), is of two types, directly and indirectly, not to mention the fees for government services, should be imposed not only to finance expenditures budget and / or inability, but also for the purpose of implementing the so-called the objectives of fiscal policy for the management of the national economy, if any, there are the goals of this mainly purpose, but under the Terms and prior assumptions, including; achieving economic and social balances; including achieving the goals of social justice, as entitled to the study of the distribution of income and financial sheets; and for the protection of local economic activities and to ease dependence on trade International and invasion of imports on local non-oil exports account; including to increase domestic production efficiency; and to counter the effects of the emergence of cases of cash or Ksada inflation or deflationary recession accompanied by lower purchasing capacity and low domestic demand and the standard of living inflation. This important aspect, which provides financial policy instruments should be parallel with the implementation of appropriate monetary policies and banking, and all these things had to be the existence of predictive and pre-analytical and in-depth studies is not at the macro level, but also on the level, sectoral and partial. To delve into the concepts of these tools requires ample space, you may get us out for the answer to this question is important. However, to answer calls contemplative briefing document financial budget, which was referred to the House of Representatives by law. To make our research center away from the purely academic, we will try to limit ourselves on the basics. In section (1), we'll show a brief definition of the budget and combinations Rknyha; expenditures estimated cost and revenue, as well as transfers and precautions different distributions, as well as the issue of financing the estimated deficit, when it is happening, because of the superiority of expenditures on estimated income, or where it meant the deficit for the purposes of achieving some of the goals fiscal policy, and this aspect does not seem that it is located within the planners thought fiscal policy in Iraq, because the financial budget looks as if it is a perspective, as a fund or "vault" for the conduct of business !, not to mention the primitive methods of estimation lacking any scientific studies supported. And we will show that the budget and the two essential; first, to provide cash resources to cover expenditures on government services and activities not associated with the ministries of bodies, and which ones belong to the Kurdistan region. Resources and expenditures come through the income estimates, a crude oil export revenues of direct and indirect taxes, grants and subsidies and transfers rounded and surpluses or reserves, and others. And second, to implement fiscal policy objectives for the purpose of achieving the required balances in accordance with the objectives, determined, usually, development plans and investment programs (1). In Section 2, we will focus most important features of the budget document for 2015, and we will be discussing several aspects of. In Section 3, we will focus on the sources of funding for the estimated expenditures, on the one hand, and the efficiency and feasibility of these expenditures in the light of the functions of government to implement its management of the national economy, on the other hand. And we will discuss, concentration, the amount of suitable installation of the financial budget for 2015 with the functions of government to implement fiscal policies also required, along with the achievement of justice in the distribution of liability for direct and indirect taxes in the Iraqi economy and society. In the section, 
(4), we will give a calendar year, then we take some of the conclusions and recommendations.


(1) - the financial budget for 2015: general characteristics and composition: did not initiate financial budget for 2014 because of the political and tugging Aldaasha terrorist attack and other factors. The budget is supposed to begin in 2015 submitted to the House of Representatives, very soon. Of course, comprising the budget from two sides; first the ability of government spending for the implementation of its program for the 2015 allocations, and to meet the challenges of the attack Aldaasha terrorist who occupied Mosul and towns of the three other provinces in northern, central and western Iraq in order to defeat it and edit areas taken, which requires a large military and security expenditures and to increase our size allocations required for this purpose. The second is the estimated revenue allocations and the deficit is destined for the gap between spending and revenue; Stnolhma later. Are summarized below, in some detail, the most important items such expenditures, and then we follow analysis of projected income and deficit:

Estimate of the expected government expenditures : estimated total government expenditures, disaggregated by Gredaha key; this to cover the expenditures of the government to manage its services in the Iraqi economy, disaggregated by ministries and agencies is related to the Ministry, and investment for the implementation of development projects, which are also classified according to the ministries and independent bodies. This total estimated volume reached, (Senkerb numbers to the nearest million, to facilitate the reading, without affecting the results of the analysis), approximately; (125 203 111), one hundred and twenty-five trillion two hundred and three billion, one hundred and eleven million dinars; the equivalent of about (111.590); a hundred and one dozen billion five hundred and ninety million dollars. The nature of the expenditures were distributed between the current 64%, and investment to finance the project expenditures by 36% of the total estimated expenditures. The distribution of these expenditures on the ministries and implementing agencies ratios, it is sufficient to show the Ministry of Oil has acquired a proportion of 13.2% of them, followed by the Kurdistan region, increased by 12.3%, and there is no indication in the spreadsheet attached to the budget document and private revenue sources to suggest the size of the ability of income received from this region!) (2) 0, followed, of course, allocated to the Ministry of Defence ratio, under the current security conditions, increased by 12.2%. The rest of the expenditures ratios, ranging between 1.3% allocated to the Ministry of Industry, which is the lowest rate is reasonable in the light of dilemmas growth in the Iraqi economy. It is strange to find that spending on the activities of the House of Representatives of 2.4%, a percentage allocations amounting to twice the proportion allocated to the Ministry of Industry, the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources with it has been allocated to them, more than 10% of expenditures. Followed by the Ministry of Scientific Research. But 64% of these expenditures are geared, predominantly, to meet the ongoing activities and not an investment. The budget document also noted that the investment projects that have not implemented the proportion of 50% up to 07.01.2015, will be stopped! (3) We do not know what is the philosophy of this procedure as long as the assumed allocations may be calculated? Is the procedure is to stop funding or solving problems that hinder the implementation? Are summarized below brief notes about the size and distribution of these expenditures in terms of both development priorities, on the one hand, hand appreciation and implementation methods:

1. relationship allocations spending power of national development priorities plan; and put the national development plan for the five years from .2013 to 2017, year target for GDP growth at an annual rate of 13.3%, at constant prices of 2012, to grow the commodity sectors, such as agriculture, industry and others at a rate of annual growth rate of 7.5%, while crude oil extraction sector grow at an annual growth rate of 18.7%. Also allocated investments, increased by $ 282 billion over five years, an average of 56.4 billion dollars annually. Whereas under close the budget for 2015, that investment spending on all existing projects which did not proceed with no more than $ 40 billion in 2015. The growth rate in the commodity sectors did not exceed 2-3% instead of the 7.5% estimated in the National Development Plan. And this seems to us to set development plans do not constitute a reference for the development of financial projections, or that the financial estimates put not based on predictive studies prudent. (4)

1. How to estimate expenditures and their implications for monetary policy purposes, if any? Financial budget is not just a fund collects the revenue to spend on economic management requirements, it is a form Chairperson, however, the government tool to put fiscal policies in order to achieve the balance between economic activities production of goods and services, Increased spending will lead to move the application in cases of contraction and stagnation in economic activity and falling in price levels. The spending cuts lead to combat inflation and the generally high rates of prices, and the concentration of the reduction in service activities is essential, with an attempt to maintain the investment spending, that these policies promote banking financial policies such as raising interest rates in banks to encourage national saving and curb excess consumption. In all these examples Sagnaha want assertion that the exercise of fiscal policies may be required to achieve a surplus or a deficit in intentional financial budget. If the estimated expenditures and revenues in order to meet the requirements of the management of the national economy in isolation from estimating their effects on balance, they turn to the secretion of adverse effects in the course of economic activity. Accordingly, the budget must Baraknyha Alanvaqa and Alaiardi preparation according to the amount of depth to the movement of the national economy variables studies. Through close reading of the financial budget for 2015 with detailed schedules for expenditures and revenues by expenditure purposes and sources of revenue, we did not find any indication of financial considerations and the side effects of spending or revenue growth rates on the march and the standard of living of citizens.

2. Are there procedures to prevent waste and corruption and bring thoughtful austerity does not materially affect the lives of people and not on the performance efficiency? It is known that corruption had spread among a large proportion of its officers and employees and customers with the Iraqi government, is enough to recall that corruption cases referred to the courts had reached during the last two years, more than two thousand of them the case has not been decided, but only a few hundred. In addition to the theft of public funds and abuse of office for the privileges and protections to officials, there is waste and weakness in financial control in many of the organs of government, and this, as well as the weight of packages salaries enormous paid to officials and deputies with privileges to bowl the financial budget, including preventing the achievement of objectives that we have mentioned . Can not be in this situation Mujhah financial budget to meet the developmental, financial and service needs efficiently and accurately put, and therefore we will find, in the end, the field will be different from the account Baydar account !!

1. Do I need to finance the deficit is expected to increase domestic and external borrowing, or to improve the performance and efficiency of the recruitment of government savings that should form the reserves calculated for the emergency, and the savings of citizens, public bodies and private companies? In the case of a deficit as a result of the predominance of the value of expenditures on the value of revenues, what is the best way to filled or reduced? Is Ballja to borrow and carry the benefits of it, and then the adoption of direct taxes on income and wealth, and the indirect taxes levied on goods and services, especially the ones imported? Yes, this is the traditional way to cover the deficit, but should be studied and scrutinized the case of the social strata of the population of consumers, according to their incomes and their levels of the process, if they are unemployed or unable to work or are realistic in the nets poverty and destitution. How to distinguish between them in the imposition of direct and indirect taxes? The answer depends on the type required diagnoses according to a prudent amount of living standards and to distinguish between necessities and luxuries studies. When imposing an indirect tax on the imported commodity should calculate the so-called flexible price of the commodity on according to the size of the change in the demand for them, and this matter concerning the manner revenue estimate by sources, we will refer to it later. And by reference to the Finance Ministry, which is revenue collection plan style, we know through previous experience in this ministry that there is no such studies, we propose, then, without response.

(2) - estimate of the expected revenue in this budget: revenue kinds estimated in this budget by equals, (99,801,875), ninety-nine trillion eight hundred and one billion eight hundred and seventy-five million dinars, and the shortcut will write 99.802 trillion dinars, or about 100 trillion dinars, and is equal to 88 950, eighty-eight and nine hundred and fifty million dollars. According to Table (1) revenue by the numbers for 2015, which is contained in the Appendix at the forefront of the attached tables with close budget for 2015, (5), has calculated the distribution of the projected income ratios by sources; calculated percentages of the total estimated income, which we have referred to the value of above.

Table 1 shows the projected income distribution ratios, according to sources for 2015.

Source

Percentage

1-oil revenues and mineral wealth

84.4

2-taxes on income and wealth

1.8

3-commodity taxes and excise duties

3.5

4-fees

2.1

5-budget share of the public sector gains

3.4

6-capital income

0.5

7-manufacturing revenue

1.2

8-Other income

3.1



Estimated total revenues of $ 88.950 billion = 100%

Are summarized in the below, the most important observations:

1. Notes, clearly, that the revenues from the export of crude oil constituted 84.4% of the total of all estimated income from all sources. Of course, the situation reflects the overwhelming dependence on the oil sector, and this is a problem requiring specialized research. (See Reference No. 6 in the end of the article).

2. notes, clearly, also, that commodity taxes do not constitute more than 3.5% of the total estimated revenue, a small proportion of not more than three billion dollars and a half billion, but its impact on social justice for Dafieha depends on how the criteria applied, do my necessary ? Is infect consumers with low incomes? What is the price elasticity of the product imposed by the indirect tax or customs, if they are imported, you ever demand is inelastic, meaning it is an essential commodity for a large segment of consumers, such as medicines, etc., then you should avoid imposing or make it low and sensible, and vice versa for Commodities entertainment. On the whole, the estimated value of the revenue from this tax in this ratio does not exceed three billion and a half billion dollars, so it must be cautious in imposing and identify consumers at the quality of her style, because the achievement of justice and to maintain the standard of living must be of the financial policy of the annual budget targets .

3. also notes that the public sector provides an annual dividend to the government by three billion and a half billion dollars. The government is supposed to keep the public sector some of its profits to the development and re-investment.

4. Also notes that the tax on entry and low wealth, does not exceed 1.8%, and is supposed to affect the high income earners and large wealth rather than junior staff, workers and toilers. Also, the fees should be imposed at the request of government services, depending on the size of their consumers, the larger the magnitude of the asylum of these services, as it was supposed to reduce the proportion of fees, to reduce the burden on reviewers from low-income.

5. It is difficult to comment on other income ratio because it is non-specific, but the increase may provide, as appreciation of about three billion dollars.

6. Another important note, concerning the manner not estimate the tax rate, but the possibility collected at the lowest cost and in time required to complete and honestly, Ohz administrative and regulatory subject of disciplinary and functional, not here area for consideration.

The objective of these observations is to refer to the factors that make each of the implementation of taxes and other revenue size actually collected, according planned estimates, may not come by to see the planned or estimated, even though adopted the results of the collection of taxes of all sorts in previous years, because it must be taken Aldkhalah into account all the changes and spending patterns and tastes and income levels into account when preparing so unexpected revenues. Here comes our critique of systematic budget figures, although we have not yet seen the studies on the amount of deviations between planned and collected all kinds of taxes and other income in previous years. Thus studies preparers of financial estimates of the financial budgets would be used as the future.

(3) - the budget deficit : get the deficit financial budget is not due to reasons of fiscal policy, but because the contrast between spending and revenue assessors did not Ihspa scientific way of the possibility of high accuracy, but because of speculation and methods of collecting and spending is inefficient, due to lack of reliable to economic studies / Social appropriate. According to the financial budget for 2015 is likely that the fiscal deficit arising from increased estimates of expenditures to revenues increased by 23.401 trillion, an increase of almost 23%. According to the document the budget referred to, the government intends to plug style domestic and external borrowings and the issuance of bonds, treasury and couriers, etc., directly step, hoping to collect and pay off loans and financial obligations, to pay the interest and bond yields, remittances and other through revenue collection actually, over the fiscal year through direct and indirect taxes and balances retained and others pointed to above. The show in the table below the government's plan to identify sources that will be adopted to provide funding ratios, and the consequent benefits and obligations must be repaid later:

Table 2 shows the borrowing rates and the proposed funding in the budget to finance the deficit

Source

Ratios according to sources of funding for the estimated deficit

1. retained stocks of 2014

12.8

2. Special Drawing Rights

9.0

3. The issuance of foreign bonds

26.0

4. the issuance of public debt bonds through the legal statutory reserve

26.0

5. loans and remittances by TBI

12.8

- The issuance of treasury transfers from Iraqi banks

12.8

The source, who calculated the ratios above him; and document the financial budget for 2015.

Notes, clearly the following:

1. that balances retained from the 2014 clog estimated deficit of 12.8. Perhaps the supervisor was expected to be retained balances are larger in terms of proportion because of high oil prices before recently landing compared to the price in previous years?

2. The issue of foreign bonds and bonds of public debt, together constitute 52% of the proposed financing to meet the size of the deficit. And, of course, will arrange for the payment of benefits to be paid on bonds purchased, which will increase the debt burden of the government for the coming years.

3. Loans and remittance in items 0.5 and 6 in the table amounts Nspthma together 25.6%, which will increase the indebtedness of the government for the coming years, too.

(4) calendar with some of the conclusions and recommendations: We reviewed a budget for fiscal 2015, the structure of the center, and the most important features of the relative composition of expenditures and revenues estimated deficit, and we have expressed our observations on the implications and repercussions style developed or guess, for not they are based on analyzes of a standard suitable for this purpose. The essential characteristic clear that oil export revenues constitute the main source of funding, by more than 84%, and the rest of the funding sources, such as taxes on income and wealth taxes commodity indirect and using the funds retained earnings sector, public sector, and more all do not constitute more than 16% of the value of resources estimated, however, marred by some of the negatives regarding justice element in the distribution of the burden of these taxes, according to the observations that we expressed. We conclude provide some preliminary conclusions and Nlhakha some general recommendations intensive.

The most important conclusions; apparently through the analyzes provided that the preparation of estimates of this budget was not based on the record amount diagnostic accurate studies, and not counted account factors of corruption and lack of administrative efficiency in controlling the value of expenditures and resources estimated, but is parked to adopt the style of appreciation speculative based on past practices . And come up with some general recommendations below:

1. Work on the development of methods of estimating the financial budget of expenditures and resources and the inability of the elements, according to sources, the adoption of the standard quantitative analytical methods, in order to achieve the degree of probability of greater precision, and to help in the diagnosis of administrative ills and regulatory and Alvesadah in the preparation of the financial budget, as not only a tool for the exchange and collection of revenue but also as a tool to achieve development in the functional and financial performance.

2. Consideration should be given to the financial budget as an important tool in the implementation of the required fiscal policies to achieve economic and social budgets in light of the maximum possible growth of the Iraqi economy goals, during the budget year and beyond.

3. remain strategic objective is to work on not only the case of rent-seeking accreditation to export crude oil, but also to consider carefully and warned to adopt the price of a barrel of oil now is to calculate the expected oil revenues in the budget. This requires the adoption of predictive scientific studies about the global demand for crude oil volume, general and Iraq in particular. For example, adopted a budget price of $ 60 for an expected price of a barrel of Iraqi crude oil source for the year 2015, but is now verging on the landing below $ 50 per barrel, and there is the possibility of further decline in the price during the current year. But the agency for Global Energy Studies, (IEA), indicate that the price of a barrel could start to rise again, especially in the next decade and the next, because of the potential increase in demand for the desired energy in developed and consumed crude oil states. However, in all cases to be predictive of advanced studies for crude oil prices in international trade. As a matter of caution should have this financial budget adopts price of a barrel of oil at $ 40 instead of $ 60, will rise if the increased resources and less need to borrow, it will also help to alleviate the need to increase the direct and indirect tax burden on the people.

Some of the main sources:

1. d. Full dentex; "National Development Plan for the years 2013- 2017" Published in multiple sites and newspapers.

2. Law No. () for the year 2014, "the budget of the Federal Republic of Iraq for fiscal year 2015".

3. See Source No. 1 above.

4. See Source No. 2, above.

5. See Source No. 2 above.

6. d. Full dentex; "rentier and sustainable development of the Iraqi economy," an article published in 2011.

(*) Formerly a regional adviser to the United Nations.

Copyright network Iraqi economists 8/1 / 2015 Permission to quote and re-publication, provided that the source

To download the easy-to-copy printing a PDF click here
 

THIS, BELOW, IS A QUESTION TO THE AUTHOR OF THE ARTICLE:
3 Comments
Reply
bassam 7
Deployment of January 8, 2015 in 18:02
Peace be upon you. 
Doctor, but you think it's better now that the state is to float the dollar as this procedure could activate the industrial and agricultural sector. What is the benefit of maintaining a constant dollar price if this works to revitalize the local product import account. Do you think Dr. CBI is able to maintain the dollar's exchange with all of these economic risks price .. 
Sincerely. 
I answer to the above questions, and thank you.

Reply
Full dentex
THIS IS A REPLY FROM THE AUTHOR OF THE ARTICLE...VERY INTERESTING - 


Deployment of January 8, 2015 in 22:40
Dear outlined pink stones on the questions as follows: 

1. If the float of the Iraqi dinar, Vstthalk its purchasing power and standard of living of ordinary people become rickety level due to high prices then, especially since domestic production is scarce. And it becomes a great dependence on imports. 

2. When importing goods Pushing would be the dollar, if the dollar exchange rate has become or will become low, the amount of dinars paid dinar will double, instead of 1122 dinars to the dollar, could rise to 50,000 dinars to the dollar, and of course we will have inflation Falt Oanvjari will become people's lives expensive actually. 

3. What the central bank does not is still trying to maintain or at least install the dinar exchange rate to the dollar, to spare citizens distemper collapse of the purchasing power of the Iraqi money .. 

4. Valtauam requires that you have a production base that can compete with goods Almistorhn Vine is now in Iraq? 

5. How activates the agricultural sector or the industrial and production costs, especially expensive imported materials Iraqi dinar? As the imported goods will be cheaper, and therefore the expansion of local production will be difficult. 

6. Central Bank Bgdarh DZ Shabibi was trying to preserve the purchasing power of the Iraqi currency, and that he was selling the dollar in auctions over the dinar was introduced and withdrawn from the market to strengthen its purchasing power against the dollar. 
flotation conditions are not now available in the Iraqi Aafqatsad. 

Thank you 
full dentex

Reply


THIS, AGAIN, IS THE COMMENT IN REPLY TO THE AUTHOR'S ANSWER - ABOVE:
Publication of January 9, 2015 at 12:54

Thank you Doctor. 
God, your words correctly. But I think he now fares do not Eogod fact to face the economic crisis and all that is happening is prosthesis solutions. For example, because the process of import cars are in abundance and it hurts especially the Iraqi economy and you know that Iraq imports more than 60% of the petroleum products from abroad, and that because of the ability of refiners Limited in Iraq. Means to float the dollar will be, but not the will of the central bank is now the price of oil to $ 50 cost of extraction in Iraq said high as $ 21 more and you can be sure of the number. The Central Bank can not maintain a fixed exchange rate under conditions so? Imposition of taxes does not solve the problem, but should stop importing specific commodity, for example, such as cars and the trend towards increased production of refining refineries. 
should work now in order to save the Iraqi economy and this is Msalatkm Dear Dr. Tstieion through educating people first through economic seminars. 
The International Energy Agency announced The United States will become the largest exporter of oil in 2017 by 13 million barrels as the oil shale production costs fell in the United States to $ 75 now. Moreover, the search for alternative oil Gary afoot energy. The European Union has now taken the decision that is run media shipping gas, produces a quarter of Britain's electricity from wind now. It's the product life cycle for oil, This is my opinion, and excuse me, I am an accountant and I'm not economist and you know me economy, I think it's high oil prices pushed the producer countries to look for alternatives. 
We as Iraqis to think about the future of economic Iraq from now. 
Thank you Doctor full dentex. 
If you have any Notes please give me out.

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[Shabibilicious]

Cliffs notes / nut shell?     

 

GO RV, and NO BV

Edited January 9, 2015 by Shabibilicious

[TBomb]

6 proposed amendments to the draft budget) (6, 6)

Ward star

Thursday , January 8, 2015

 

REMEMBER THIS ARTICLE IS A DISCUSSION ON RECOMMENDATIONS OR WHAT THEY THINK SHOULD HAPPEN..NOT WHAT IS HAPPENING (AT LEAST NOT AT THIS POINT)

 

 

 We've talked in previous publications on the six major errors in the budget (austerity and method of funding and cash session and insisting on state ownership and dollarization and the neglect of domestic production), and to address these errors, it requires modifications to the budget, it is true that Iraq is in dire need of a fundamental change in the preparation of system budget ranging from philosophy and approach to economic meant passing through the methods of data and techniques used in the preparation and control of performance and nutrition inverse of the information collection, and this requires a broad government effort and for a long time, training and the provision of supplies, but this article focuses on a possible and necessary adjustments to address the complex problem of negative results expected from budget 2015 austerity, at which time you must join hands in efforts in the face of the terrorist attack suffered by Iraq, and in the forefront of these efforts to raise the morale of the Iraqi people and the development of local production sectors, and seeks amendments contained in this article is to achieve total goals in the forefront: 

 

 

Improve the quality of life of the Iraqi citizen, and not pressure him, and this is done through several methods including the abolition of the procedures contained in the draft budget concerning the imposition of fees or taxes on mobile or on local factors of production, and to start a national campaign for housing, and the allocation of at least 5 trillion dinars to support poor families and displaced persons and displaced persons, and to reduce the disparity between salaries in the operating budget, and reduce the current fuel prices, and improve the ration card and salary increase, particularly retirees, workers and the continuation of appointments and contracts until the improvement of local employment opportunities. 

 

 

Response to the requirements of the Iraqi economy and not fall into the problem of the economic recession, and this is done through several methods of the most important increase in public spending of the state to 235 trillion dinars, and reduce state ownership size, support mixed and private sectors to encourage the public to buy shares of state-owned companies that are privatized and retained with a large reserve to meet future risks, and the development of the Iraqi capital market in order to be able to perform the tasks required of it.  

Response to the requirements of the local security through several means, including transfer pattern (of conduct) consumer of imported goods to domestic goods, and strive towards self-sufficiency, and reduce domestic production costs, and to prevent the importation of goods that can be produced or irreplaceable production locally. 

 

 

Preservation of Iraq's wealth of foreign currency, and this is done from the adoption of several methods, including, select the number allowed to state its use of oil revenues in foreign currencies, including no more than 30 billion dollars, and keep the rest asset reserves of the Central Bank and the coming generations, and compel the government not to intervene in the exchange rates Locally dollar, and open a window for trading the dollar and the metals in the Iraqi capital market, and the inclusion of imports of the public sector tax and customs duties, and the recovery of money smuggled out of Iraq or hidden inside. 

 

 

We will give in this article is a simplified picture of the amendment procedures that can be of the Council of seizures approval within his constitutional powers, or returned to the government to work under which it does not need a long time, knowing that he already we have a more comprehensive amendments to the budget of 2014 has been filed by the Committee of Economy representative to the House of Representatives, but not discussed because of the adoption of the budget in the sense that they are utilized. 

 

 

The special revenue adjustments, including changing the sale price of oil now from $ 60 to $ 50 in harmony with the international prices, and the adoption of the exchange rate between the government and the central bank for the purposes of mutual settling accounts at 2,000 dinars / USD, and add the amount of 100 trillion dinars from sell assets and state companies, convert 5 trillion dollars of taxes that are imposed on the poor to the tax levied on imported goods for which there is a local alternative to it, and on this basis, the total revenue will be up to 235 trillion dinars. 

 

 

The amendments in expenses, is up by maintaining a selected number of government operating expenses and investment of 125 trillion after making detailed changes within it, and most important of these changes are deducted (10) trillion dinars of investment expenditure and turn them into operational expenses that affect citizens like services, education and health ration card with the aim to reduce the disparity between the salaries, and are required to correct the overhead use rationalization policy rather than austerity, and rationalization serving to reduce unnecessary expenditure for the necessary expenses that affect citizens' daily lives while maintaining the number total expenses, also requires the correct door expenditure allocation of a new item named financing expenses total amount of $ (45) trillion dinars allocated to finance economic activities through the Fund for National Development with a capital of $ 30 trillion is working on financing for local production sectors easy procedures and the usefulness of a simple no more than 2%, as well as the allocation of (5 ) to start the campaign trillion housing through soft loans, and that includes this item funding of social activities through the allocation of $ 5 trillion dinars to reduce the level of poverty, and pay the rest of the provincial share of the allocation includes petrodollars. 

 

 

And ending with the revised budget presence reserves of by 65 trillion of them (60) trillion reserves of the Central Bank's foreign exchange retention of oil revenues for 2015 and $ 5 trillion dinars reserve additional contingency, the following table shows the main lines of the budget amended, note that the full amendments to The bill is currently in the House of Representatives / Committee of Economy, which is generally a modest contribution need to debate and correction and revision, and it should be noted that some people might think some difficulty in the application of these amendments, but we are confident that this difficulty is slimmer than expected from the original budget difficulties, and must the confidence of the Iraqi people, officials and its ability to overcome the difficulties when he finds (people) the government is keen on interests and work to improve the quality of life and raise morale, The budget political, humanitarian and economic their meanings should be a tool to make life easier and not vice versa. 

 

Edited January 9, 2015 by TBomb

[moneysoon]

Thanks for the article.

 

It is evident that the level of knowledge of the possible outcomes are based on their knowledge of how things traditionally work in their country. Interesting points of view....

[TBomb]

SHABALICIOUS- ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS READ THIS SECTION HERE - 

 

HIS, BELOW, IS A QUESTION TO THE AUTHOR OF THE ARTICLE:
3 Comments
Reply
bassam 7
Deployment of January 8, 2015 in 18:02
Peace be upon you. 
Doctor, but you think it's better now that the state is to float the dollar as this procedure could activate the industrial and agricultural sector. What is the benefit of maintaining a constant dollar price if this works to revitalize the local product import account. Do you think Dr. CBI is able to maintain the dollar's exchange with all of these economic risks price .. 
Sincerely. 
I answer to the above questions, and thank you.

Reply
Full dentex
THIS IS A REPLY FROM THE AUTHOR OF THE ARTICLE...VERY INTERESTING - 


Deployment of January 8, 2015 in 22:40
Dear outlined pink stones on the questions as follows: 

1. If the float of the Iraqi dinar, Vstthalk its purchasing power and standard of living of ordinary people become rickety level due to high prices then, especially since domestic production is scarce. And it becomes a great dependence on imports. 

2. When importing goods Pushing would be the dollar, if the dollar exchange rate has become or will become low, the amount of dinars paid dinar will double, instead of 1122 dinars to the dollar, could rise to 50,000 dinars to the dollar, and of course we will have inflation Falt Oanvjari will become people's lives expensive actually. 

3. What the central bank does not is still trying to maintain or at least install the dinar exchange rate to the dollar, to spare citizens distemper collapse of the purchasing power of the Iraqi money .. 

4. Valtauam requires that you have a production base that can compete with goods Almistorhn Vine is now in Iraq? 

5. How activates the agricultural sector or the industrial and production costs, especially expensive imported materials Iraqi dinar? As the imported goods will be cheaper, and therefore the expansion of local production will be difficult. 

6. Central Bank Bgdarh DZ Shabibi was trying to preserve the purchasing power of the Iraqi currency, and that he was selling the dollar in auctions over the dinar was introduced and withdrawn from the market to strengthen its purchasing power against the dollar. 
flotation conditions are not now available in the Iraqi Aafqatsad. 

Thank you 
full dentex

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/194178-discussion-on-currency-exchange-from-the-iraqi-economists-site-wow/#ixzz3OLpcQfj3

 

SO DENTEX IS ADVISING THE CONDITIONS NEEDED FOR CHANGING THE VALUE OF THE IQD - TO MAKE IT STABLE 

[Catluver67]

Cliffs notes / nut shell?

GO RV, and NO BV

I'll second that...

[TBomb]

THIS IS A PRINT SCREEN OF THE TABLE FROM THE FIRST ARTICLE

 

 

 

• Source
• Percentage
• 1-oil revenues and mineral wealth 84.4
• 2-taxes on income and wealth 1.8
• 3-commodity taxes and excise duties 3.5
• 4-fees 2.1
• 5-budget share of the public sector gains 3.4
• 6-capital income 0.5
• 7-manufacturing revenue 1.2
• 8-Other income 3.1

•  Table 1 shows the projected income distribution ratios, according to sources for 2015.
•  
• Estimated total revenues of $ 88.950 billion = 100%

Are summarized in the below, the most important observations:

 

SORRY, TABLE WON'T COPY APPROPRIATELY

Edited January 10, 2015 by Markinsa

[TBomb]

I LIKE THAT THIS IS BEING DISCUSSED - I LIKE THAT THEY OUTLINE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE DINAR IS SIMPLY RELEASED WITHOUT ECONOMIC FACTORS SUPPORTING IT (PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, ETC) - HOW TAXES APPLY TO THE EXCHANGE RATE, SHABS' PLAN, THAT THE DINAR CANNOT SIMPLY BE ALLOWED TO FLOAT BECAUSE IT WON'T BE STABLE (AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS) - I ALSO LIKE THAT WE'RE NOT SEEING MENTION OF "NEED" FOR SPECIFIC LAWS. DOESN'T MEAN WE WON'T NEED THEM, CONCLUSIVELY, BUT WHY  NO MENTION IN THE ARTICLE IF THEY WEREN'T OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE...THIS IS ALL JUST A DISCUSSION, BUT I LIKE IT IS BEING DISCUSSED.

 

I LIKE THAT THE ECONOMIST IS ADDRESSING A LOT OF INFO IN THIS IN ONE SOURCE/PLACE AND WE DON'T HAVE TO PIECE TOGETHER MANY ARTICLES TO GAIN PERSPECTIVE ON THIS ISSUE.

Edited January 9, 2015 by TBomb

[Catluver67]

I LIKE THAT THIS IS BEING DISCUSSED - I LIKE THAT THEY OUTLINE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE DINAR IS SIMPLY RELEASED WITHOUT ECONOMIC FACTORS SUPPORTING IT (PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, ETC) - HOW TAXES APPLY TO THE EXCHANGE RATE, SHABS' PLAN, THAT THE DINAR CANNOT SIMPLY BE ALLOWED TO FLOAT BECAUSE IT WON'T BE STABLE (AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS) - I ALSO LIKE THAT WE'RE NOT SEEING MENTION OF "NEED" FOR SPECIFIC LAWS. DOESN'T MEAN WE WON'T NEED THEM, CONCLUSIVELY, BUT WHY NO MENTION IN THE ARTICLE IF THEY WEREN'T OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE...THIS IS ALL JUST A DISCUSSION, BUT I LIKE IT IS BEING DISCUSSED.

I LIKE THAT THE ECONOMIST IS ADDRESSING A LOT OF INFO IN THIS IN ONE SOURCE/PLACE AND WE DON'T HAVE TO PIECE TOGETHER MANY ARTICLES TO GAIN PERSPECTIVE ON THIS ISSUE.

Thanks T : )

[TBomb]

I HAVE TRANSLATED THE QUESTION AND ANSWER VIA BING...

 

 

SAM 7

Posted January 8th, 2015 at 18: 02

Peace be upon you.

The doctor, but I think it's better now that the State is to float the dollar and this procedure can activate the industrial and agricultural sector.What is the benefit of maintaining a hard dollar if this serves to activate the account import local product. Do you think that Dr. CBI is able to keep the dollar with all these risks economic price for.

With sincere appreciation.

Answer to the above questions, and thank you.

 

Reply

Biting back full

Posted January 8th, 2015 at 10: 40

Dear pink stones set on the questions as follows:

1. If the float of the Iraqi dinar, Vst thalk purchasing power and living standards of ordinary people become dilapidated due to the high level of prices and, in particular, that domestic production are scarce. And the heavy reliance on imports.

2. when importing goods pays will be the dollar if the dollar became or will become low, the amount of dinars paid will double ld, instead of 1122 DT dollar can go up to 50, 000 dinars to the dollar, and of course we will have inflation will Falt Oanvjari become people's lives really expensive.

 

3. the Central Bank is still trying to maintain or at least install the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, to spare citizens the collapse of moodiness of the purchasing power of the Iraqi money.

 

Requires 4. Valtauam have a production base that can compete with the goods Almistorhn, where is now in Iraq?

 

5. How do I activate the agricultural or industrial production, costs and expensive imported material and especially the Iraqi dinar? Since imported goods will be cheaper, so the expansion of local production can be difficult.

 

Has 6. Bgdarh Central Bank DZ Shabibi try to maintain the purchasing power of the Iraqi currency, and that it was selling the dollar at auctions on the dinar and was withdrawn from the market to boost purchasing power against the dollar.

Conditions of flotation is not available in the Iraqi Aafqatsad now. Thank you

Biting back full

 

Reply

bassam7

Published 9 September 2015 at 12: 54 pm

Thank you doctor.

God's Word is true. But I think it now have no Knight to face the economic crisis and everything that happens is by prosthesis. For example, to import cars are in abundance, and it hurts especially the Iraqi economy and you know that Iraq imported more than 60% of oil products from abroad, due to the capacity of refineries in Iraq. Means to float the dollar will, but not will the Central Bank now is the price of oil to $ 50 cost of extraction in Iraq said up to 17 € more and you can be sure of the number. The Central Bank cannot maintain a fixed exchange rate under the circumstances? Taxation does not solve the problem, but we must stop the importation of certain goods, for example, cars such as the trend towards increased production of refineries.

Must act now in order to save the Iraqi economy and this is Msalatkm Dear Dr. Tstieion through educating people for the first time through economic seminars.

The International Energy Agency said that the United States would become the largest exporter of oil in 2017 by 13 million barrels as production costs decreased shale in the United States to $ 75 now. Moreover, the search for an alternative to oil Gary on energy. The European Union has adopted the resolution, which now runs media shipping gas, produces a quarter of Britain's electricity from wind now. As product life cycle oil, this is my opinion, excuse me, I'm an accountant and I and you know me and I think it paid high oil prices to the producers to look for alternatives.

We as Iraqis think about the future of Iraq now.

Thank you doctor biting back full.

If you have any feedback please give me them.

[precious1]

Very interesting. (I always retro to "Laugh In" days when I hear or say that!) I appreciate the nutshell version TBomb as I have a Megasaurus size headache today. Thank you kindly.

[TBomb]

I'VE BEEN READING THIS SITE FOR A COUPLE YEARS AT LEAST AND I'VE NEVER SEEN SUCH AN OPEN DISCUSSION ABOUT THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE CURRENCY, NOR ADDRESSING THE ISSUE (NOT TO THIS EXTENT) - I JUST WENT BACK TO THE SITE AND THEY DELETED THE QUESTION FROM "SAM 7"

OKAY, I DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE SITE, CLEARLY SOMEONE IS EDITING IT NOW - THE SAM 7 COMMENTS ARE BACK UP

3. the Central Bank is still trying to maintain or at least install the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, to spare citizens the collapse of moodiness of the purchasing power of the Iraqi money.

 

DOES THIS MEAN THEY WANT TO GET THE AUCTION RATES BACK IN LINE? I DON'T KNOW...WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THE CBI TO DISCERN THIS ABOVE STATEMENT.

 

RE NEEDED ER LAWS - I WANT TO PUT A THOUGHT OUT THERE - WHY HAS THE COM RECENTLY AND EXPRESSLY TURNED POWER OVER TO ARAJI (DEPUTY PM) TO SIGN INVESTMENT AND TRADE AGREEMENTS, WHEN THERE'S NO support FOR INVESTMENT/ OR NOT ENOUGH?

Edited January 9, 2015 by TBomb

[RV on my mind]

Nice read Thank you.  

[10 YEARS LATER]

[easyrider]

Thanks T Bomb, Good read:

 

heres a high lighted version

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reply
bassam 7
Deployment of January 8, 2015 in 18:02
Peace be upon you. 

Doctor, but you think it's better now that the state is to float the dollar as this procedure could activate the industrial and agricultural sector. What is the benefit of maintaining a constant dollar price if this works to revitalize the local product import account. Do you think Dr. CBI is able to maintain the dollar's exchange with all of these economic risks price .. 

Sincerely. 
I answer to the above questions, and thank you.

Reply Full dentex
Deployment of January 8, 2015 in 22:40

Dear outlined pink stones on the questions as follows: 

1. If the float of the Iraqi dinar, Vstthalk its purchasing power and standard of living of ordinary people become rickety level due to high prices then, especially since domestic production is scarce. And it becomes a great dependence on imports. 

2. When importing goods Pushing would be the dollar, if the dollar exchange rate has become or will become low, the amount of dinars paid dinar will double, instead of 1122 dinars to the dollar, could rise to 50,000 dinars to the dollar, and of course we will have inflation Falt Oanvjari will become people's lives expensive actually. 

3. What the central bank does not is still trying to maintain or at least install the dinar exchange rate to the dollar, to spare citizens distemper collapse of the purchasing power of the Iraqi money .. 

4. Valtauam requires that you have a production base that can compete with goods Almistorhn Vine is now in Iraq? 

5. How activates the agricultural sector or the industrial and production costs, especially expensive imported materials Iraqi dinar? As the imported goods will be cheaper, and therefore the expansion of local production will be difficult. 

6. Central Bank Bgdarh DZ Shabibi was trying to preserve the purchasing power of the Iraqi currency, and that he was selling the dollar in auctions over the dinar was introduced and withdrawn from the market to strengthen its purchasing power against the dollar. 

flotation conditions are not now available in the Iraqi Aafqatsad. Thank you full dentex

Reply
bassam7
Publication of January 9, 2015 at 12:54
Thank you Doctor. 

God, your words correctly. But I think he now fares do not Eogod fact to face the economic crisis and all that is happening is prosthesis solutions. For example, because the process of import cars are in abundance and it hurts especially the Iraqi economy and you know that Iraq imports more than 60% of the petroleum products from abroad, and that because of the ability of refiners Limited in Iraq. Means to float the dollar will be, but not the will of the central bank is now the price of oil to $ 50 cost of extraction in Iraq said high as $ 21 more and you can be sure of the number. The Central Bank can not maintain a fixed exchange rate under conditions so? Imposition of taxes does not solve the problem, but should stop importing specific commodity, for example, such as cars and the trend towards increased production of refining refineries. 

should work now in order to save the Iraqi economy and this is Msalatkm Dear Dr. Tstieion through educating people first through economic seminars. 
The International Energy Agency announced The United States will become the largest exporter of oil in 2017 by 13 million barrels as the oil shale production costs fell in the United States to $ 75 now. Moreover, the search for alternative oil Gary afoot energy. The European Union has now taken the decision that is run media shipping gas, produces a quarter of Britain's electricity from wind now. It's the product life cycle for oil, This is my opinion, and excuse me, I am an accountant and I'm not economist and you know me economy, I think it's high oil prices pushed the producer countries to look for alternatives. 
We as Iraqis to think about the future of economic Iraq from now. 

Thank you Doctor full dentex. 

If you have any Notes please give me out.

http://iraqieconomists.net/ar/2015/01/08/%D8%AF-%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%B6-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%AA%D8%AD/

Edited January 9, 2015 by easyrider

[TBomb]

THANKS VERY MUCH EASY!   

[UNEEK]

Thank you TBomb for your contributions to the site -- I have read your posts many times but this may be the first time I have made a reply -   probably because I do not feel knowledgeable enough about   the topics  lol -- But wanted to chime in and say thank you - this was a very good read - I like that they are actively working on getting government and the country stable and moving forward -- It is all looking better and better  every day -  UNEEK

[TBomb]

Thank you TBomb for your contributions to the site -- I have read your posts many times but this may be the first time I have made a reply -   probably because I do not feel knowledgeable enough about   the topics  lol -- But wanted to chime in and say thank you - this was a very good read - I like that they are actively working on getting government and the country stable and moving forward -- It is all looking better and better  every day -  UNEEK

 

THANK YOU UNEEK...I JUST LIKE THAT WE ARE ABLE TO WITNESS "FREE" DISCUSSIONS ON THE CURRENCY - THIS WAS NOT SO MUCH THE CASE UNDER MALIKI

[deniscanada]

Here are the charts

Second chart

 

OOPS they are kinda big. oh well. better big than not at all. 

 

 

 

2. When importing goods Pushing would be the dollar, if the dollar exchange rate has become or will become low, the amount of dinars paid dinar will double, instead of 1122 dinars to the dollar, could rise to 50,000 dinars to the dollar, and of course we will have inflation Falt Oanvjari will become people's lives

 

THere seems to be some consern of the value/purchising power of the USD

[v-star 650]

bammm   they know  if they float ,  and things do not work out  the dinar  could in fact  go from 1122  per dinar  too the dollar but 50,ooo   per dinar against the dollar ,  so the  central bank is  and  looking to install the  1 too 1  ratio  of  exchange  !            pretty much  tells  us    where they  want  too park the  value meter  in  dinar     -------  just waiting on the value of oil  to get back too the 50  dollar range      j.m.o.

[blueskyline]

Thank You T-Bomb 

[toric23]

Awesome find TBomb!

[zul]

Great find TBomb. Interesting article for sure.

[army03]

Thanks TBomb

[cooperwaits]

Thank you Tbomb. Your work is greatly appreciated by many!!!!