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My Two Cents from a Perspective of: Opinion vs Published Intention on the IQD


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It looks like the more popular version of a predictable future for the value of the IQD has come down to simply “Opinion” ~ but without much regard to very public statements made by very well-known Iraqi Banking and GOI representatives since at least 2009, all of whom have reputations and credibility at stake in Iraq.

 

Having had a Vanuatu Credit Union account in USD, a Japanese Yen account in both USD & Yen, a Hong Kong based Hang Seng Hong Kong Dollar Checking account, a Hang Seng savings account capable of holding funds in six different currencies and now a Warka account with at least two different currency accounts available, I figure I’ve paid some dues and learned a few things about international banking along the way.

 

The Vanuatu account supposedly got hacked, but I’m certain it was by the very same person who started the Ponzi scheme in the first place ~ before (successfully) bailing out. Fool me once………..

 

The Japanese yen accounts were just regular checking and savings accounts while in-country and got closed when I moved ~ currencies in both Yen and the USD. Could have had a savings account in Euros, but didn’t.

 

The Hong Kong based Hang Seng accounts supported a Hong Kong based International Corporation (Hong Kong has a reasonable cap on corporate taxation) and I closed them when the corporation became too expensive to maintain while waiting on a windfall of enormous wealth.

 

Costs for Hong Kong Resident Agents, Nominated Directors and the annual bookkeeping and filing for the Hong Kong Internal Revenue eventually grew (over a 5 year period) from under $1000 per year to over $2000 per year ~ just so that I could maintain an international façade that was ready to absorb an overnight windfall of wealth.
 

It became a real pain to keep up with all the official requirements especially since my Resident Agents/Bookkeepers/Nominal Directors moved location almost every year.

Not sure why.  

By the time I finally closed the bank accounts, de-registered the corporation and had the remaining funds sent to me, the extra fees had come out of the woodwork to the tune of at least $1500 more than the usual annual fee; even though I timed the closing well in advance to try to avoid extra fees.

 

I still have the names and contact information (phone, email, address) of at least two agents in Belize whose business it is to help foreigners who wish to take advantage of Belize law by introducing them to Belize bank managers, to Belize resident agents, and to Belize lawyers who can help them set up Trusts, International Holding Companies, obtain Passports, etc.

Haven’t yet had the need to contact the Belize dudes ~ still not wealthy enough to consider it.

 

Along the way of this international financial education I learned a few things about off-shore corporations, offshore bank accounts, unbreakable trusts, reliable venues for American LLC’s, and quite a myriad number of ways to represent yourself internationally in this age of corporations and internet identities.

 

I also learned about currencies and how they operate internationally.

 

For example, I was in Japan when the King of Siam (Thailand) decided to float the Thai Baht on the international currency exchange platforms free of any pegs (like to the Japanese Yen or China’s Yuan Renmembi) and consequently caused most Asian currencies taking advantage of the low cost “Made in Thailand” label to take a dive against the USD.

 

The King could do that because technically speaking, being the King, the entire Thai Money Supply belonged to him ~ like a personal bank account.

 

I had no choice but to deal with the reality of the Yen taking a dive from 85 Yen per USD 1, down to 145 Yen per USD 1. Ouch!!

That Japanese bubble was due to pop anyway, but still!!

It ended up costing me about $35K to $40K over a 5 year period.

 

Anyway, here is my collection of Opinions and Perspectives on the IQD that I’ve seen expressed (and not just here on DV) and of course my Two Cents Worth will probably creep into the language of interpreting those Opinions and the Perspectives into the following narratives:

 

Opinion: Those very public announcements stating the CBI/GOI intentions regarding the future of the IQD should be ignored; because they are mostly all smoke and mirrors and those Iraqi spokesman announcing those intentions (regardless of their reputations) aren’t really telling the truth, anyway.

“They” want to keep foreign speculators and Iraqi citizens in the dark regarding the CBI’s true intentions for the IQD so that the CBI and Iraq itself can realize the most profit from this up-coming redenomination/revaluation.

 

Perspective: The CBI (still under IMF supervision) has always publicly emphasized through different spokesman that one of its most important financial goals is to reduce Iraq’s Total Money Supply ~ close to 90 Trillion Dinar ~ from trillions down to 90 Billion Dinar. Three zeros less.

By doing so, the CBI board of directors can then decide to increase the value of the IQD against the USD using its current USD Reserve ~ close to 90 Billion USD ~ to help determine a new revalued exchange rate for the IQD vs the USD (possibly even a rate of one to one against the new currency).

 

This is the first time in decades of Iraqi history that the official currency has had this many zeros on it and nobody likes it; especially since it was Bremer and company that added the zeros after Saddam and sons absconded with all the USD and wreaked the Iraqi Central Bank’s USD Foreign Reserve balance.

 

Opinion: Most Iraqis would prefer the IQD currency to be closer in denomination to the available USD denominations now in circulation and at the same time they’d like to have the IQD have close to the purchasing power of the USD. This is a matter of national/ethnic pride more than anything else.  

 

Opinion: Right now, with that ratio of IQD Money Supply (90 Trillion) to its USD Currency Reserve (90 Billion), the CBI could easily increase the official value of the IQD against the USD from 1166:1 up to 1000:1; but instead has chosen to (successfully) fight in-country inflation and promote de-dollarization instead.

 

Perspective: Perhaps there are some currency speculators who are holding physical IQD banknotes, but who don’t really understand that both the IQD and the USD are fiat currencies and that the Ratio of the amount of IQD in the Iraqi Money Supply verses the amount of USD being held in the Iraqi/CBI vaults in Reserve is actually what is used to help determine the exchange rate between the IQD and the USD.

The Ratio doesn’t necessarily “establish” the official rate of exchange, but it is certainly instrumental in determining what rate of exchange both countries and the rest of the world might find acceptable.

 

As evidence that this is exactly the way currency exchange rates work a person need look no further than Iraq itself at the time these De la Rue notes were first issued.

 

In 2003 Coalition Forces invaded Iraq and Saddam left town. On the way out of his Baghdad Compound (now part of the Green Zone) Saddam ordered his sons to rob the old Iraqi Central Bank on their own way out of town. Saddam also took his entire stash of USD cash with him when he left.

 

Because the Hussein boys successfully committed the largest bank heist in recorded human history, (US$920 Million), the old Iraqi Central Bank lost its counterbalance in USD foreign currency reserves ~ compared to the IQD currency it had in circulation ~ and went immediately bankrupt, insolvent and un-savable and the foreign exchange rate jumped from 1:1957 to 1:3500 / USD to IQD.

 

In 2004, Bremer and crew brought the exchange rate back up to around 1:1460 with literally plane loads of newly printed USD and IQD banknotes being put into circulation.

The CBI, chartered in 2004, took over the management of the IQD from there.

 

That same Ratio is what helps determine currency exchange rates between Central Banks for virtually all fiat currencies all over the world and currency traders use very small up or down changes between one currency exchange and another to make a profit.

 

The IQD to USD exchange rate has been pegged at 1166 to 1 for the last 4 years and before that since 2004, under the guidance of the newly charted CBI, has always steadily increased in value against the USD.

 

Opinion: These last 4 years represent an admirable control of inflation by a fairly new central bank ~ the CBI is only a decade old now.

 

Opinion: The actual Ratio of Iraqi IQD Money Supply versus the CBI held USD Currency Reserves no longer applies in Iraq because Iraq is special and has a different set of rules going on due to its hidden wealth in oil, gold and dates, etc.

 

Opinion: Because Iraq is now a truly sovereign country, and out from under UN Chapter 7 sanctions, the CBI can set the exchange rate between the IQD and the USD to whatever it wants it to be; without permission or approval of the IMF, the World Bank, the Fed, the Bank of International Settlements or the Bank of England. The fact that Iraq is one of the founding member countries of the IMF doesn’t matter; the CBI can still just do whatever it wants to with its own currency.

 

Opinion: Because Iraq is so special out of all the countries in the world, the CBI will not have to follow the very same international currency and finance laws that govern all the rest of the countries associated with the IMF; even though Iraq through the CBI (which is still under IMF supervision), has been doing just that ~ right up to current day.

 

Opinion: The CBI wants to get the high denomination notes out of circulation to reduce the total IQD money supply.

The CBI can delete the zero's from the existing currency banknotes by issuing new currency with fewer zero’s on them (for exchange purposes only and at no profit or loss for either party in the exchange) and at the same time raise the value of both sets of IQD Currency against the USD; and therefore, both foreign speculators and Iraqis can still profit from such a scenario.

 

Opinion: The probable scenario for the upcoming redenomination/revalue will be that the existing high denomination De La Rue IQD banknotes will have their value raised; plus at the same time new IQD currency of smaller denomination notes will be put into circulation and with the same new RV exchange rate that the higher denomination notes are given. People will continue to trade in their De La Rue high denomination notes for USD cash and eventually, only the 25,000 notes will be pulled from circulation while all the rest of the existing higher denomination De La Rue notes from IQD10000 on down will be left in circulation to co-exist indefinitely with the newer lower denomination notes which will be in denominations all the way down to IQD 1.

 

Perspective: According to Iraqi mainstream media, when the new currency becomes available, Iraqi citizens will have little choice but to go to their local banks or currency traders to trade in their high denomination De La Rue banknotes for the new CBI-issued lower denomination banknotes.

 

A financially aware Iraqi citizen (make that most of the population) will undoubtedly ask for USD at their local bank or exchange, since that is all that has been available for trade right up until……yesterday?

 

That Iraqi citizen will then undoubtedly be told that he would first have to trade his high denomination Bremer era, soon to be extinct, De La Rue notes for the brand new currency at a direct ratio of 1000 old to 1 new. He will be told that those new lower denomination IQD notes can be had either in cash right there on the spot or from an ATM machine via debit/credit card later ~ as they are needed.

 

If that particular local Iraqi bank has the USD available, that particular Iraqi citizen might get to have the option of trading his newly acquired lower denomination IQD for USD at the newly announced exchange rate.

 

If that’s how it goes, and the announced rate is say $0.50 or 50 cents on the dollar ~ affecting both IQD currencies simultaneously ~ then all the Iraqi citizens trying to trade in cash banknotes (in a mostly cash society) are going to be told that they must first turn in their IQD10000 notes (supposedly worth US$5,000 to foreign speculators) for a new IQD10 note worth only US$5. Certainly no profit there.

 

That might tend to make a person mad if he was stuck in Iraq with no other choice; and especially in light of a definite, selective, lack of profit for Iraqis themselves, in a deal that seems to favor only foreign currency speculators holding high denomination De La Rue IQD banknotes outside of Iraq.

Will foreign speculators have to go through the same drill as an Iraqi (trading from old notes, to new notes, to USD) in order to get paid? If so, where is the profit in that?

 

Opinion: The exchange of the old currency for the new has nothing to do with value.

During an exchange period lasting anywhere from 90 days up to two years where nobody in Iraq loses anything by just exchanging the notes, foreign investors will also be able to exchange old currency for new and then watch the value of the new notes climb against the USD (within the time limit of whatever exchange period actualizes) until such time as they will be able to cash in the new lower denomination notes for USD at no loss.

 

Perspective: 90 days was the time given for the last Iraqi IQD redenomination exchange period when Bremer and his boys added the zeros to the currency and this transition period was necessarily short because of the war.

According to the published CBI plan for the project, a “peacetime” redenomination scenario will be scheduled with a minimum of 2 years allowed to exchange high denomination notes for the new lower denomination notes

 

Most foreign investors holding IQD cash paid close to US$1000 per IQD Million (including shipping) at a time when bank prices were near US$855 per IQD Million. There will also be an additional fee to exchange old IQD for new IQD, plus the additional fee to finally exchange new IQD for USD.

 

Even if those last two exchanges (from old to new and then new to USD) were made for free with absolutely no dealer/bank fees involved, there’s still the $1000 (cost) - $855 (sell) = $145 (loss) per IQD Million to make up for in the cash-in exchange rate (within the exchange period time limit) before most foreign cash speculators can expect to cash out with no net loss.

 

In order for that to happen the new IQD lower denomination notes would have to rise in value against the USD from the initial outing of (US$0.85 per IQD 1) up to (US$1 per IQD 1) within the 2 years’ time allowed for the exchange.

 

This at a time when the exchange rate has been steady at 1:1166 for the past 4 years. At a time when oil prices are plunging to 5 year lows, causing the GOI Budget to be too skinny to pay Kuwait the last US$4 Billion Iraq still owes in reparations for the 1990 invasion. Instead, that final payment has been put off until 2016.

Meanwhile, Iraq and Kuwait are strengthening diplomatic ties and not just because they share a shipping port on the north end of the Gulf and a lake of oil under the sand.

This repayment of reparations is still being monitored by the Security Council at the UN.

 

Opinion: Before issuing the new lower denomination IQD banknotes which will then be exchanged for the existing De La Rue notes now in circulation, the GOI will have to educate its own citizens and the rest of the world about its proposed project plan via mass media; and that education period may cause a short delay between the time the new currency is released (with its increased value against the USD) and the time when foreign speculators might actually cash in the De La Rue notes they are holding for these new IQD notes and then eventually for USD.

 

Opinion: During this delay the CBI may temporarily halt daily auctions, which could mean no USD will be allowed out of the CBI during that time. It could also mean that during that time no banks outside of Iraq will be buying IQD with USD ~ since they can’t expect to turn any IQD notes purchased into the CBI to exchange for USD.

 

Opinion: Once the auctions resume, the IQD should be back on the foreign exchange platforms, and foreign speculators (unlike Iraqi citizens) will get to cash out their De La Rue high denomination notes at the same exchange rate (US$0.85 per IQD 1) that will be applied to the new lower denomination notes inside Iraq; but without having to first go through that pesky ole routine of exchanging old IQD notes for the new IQD notes.

Get ready to be rich all you foreign IQD currency speculators!!

 

Opinion: The CBI will issue new fiat IQD currency with lower denominations on their face to exchange and coexist with the currently circulating high denomination fiat IQD currency and then the CBI will RV all circulating banknotes, both high and low denominations, as a managed float at anywhere from (US$0.10 per IQD 1) to (US$1 to IQD1) and then the demand for oil will drive its value against the USD up from there.

 

Perspective: The very public statements to the press about the future of the IQD by Iraqi Finance Ministers, CBI Directors and Iraqi Finance Committee spokesmen as well as the published statements from the same sources have all been put out there with the same coordinated message; which is, that the CBI wants to reduce the size of the Iraqi total money supply, eliminate the zeros on the face of its currency, raise the value of the IQD against the USD, reduce Iraqi inflation and de-dollarize Iraq.

 

The last prediction issued by the CBI Board of Directors spokesman in the fall of 2014 was that the project to eliminate the zeros could not begin until at least 2016 due to the tightened GOI budget and the continued lack of stability in the country. When the stability of the country allows it, the project to eliminate the zeros on the nominal face of Iraqi currency will proceed.

 

The project will proceed with the continued education of the Iraqi public by mass media and local bankers and currency exchanges to prepare for the issuance of new currency that has been upgraded with 3 languages on the notes, with three zeros less than the currently circulating Bremer era De La Rue notes and with improved security features to prevent counterfeiting. This new currency will also have proportionally more value against the USD than the existing currency.

 

These new lower denomination notes will be traded directly for the currently issued notes at a ratio of 1:1000; and at no cost to either party involved in the exchange.

Each note in the 1:1000 exchange will be of equal value as expressed in USD.

 

For example: The currently circulating IQD10000 note, at the current exchange rate of is 1 USD to 1166 IQD is worth $8.58.

A newly issued IQD10 note will be able to trade for either a circulating IQD10000 note or for US$8.58, because it will have had its value against the USD proportionally raised so that it too is worth US$8.58.

 

That would mean that the new currency will have an exchange rate against the USD of US$1.00 per IQD 1.166 while the existing currency would continue at the current rate of 1:1166.

 

This coexistence of the currencies is projected to last for a 2 year period or until the CBI is sufficiently satisfied that the Iraqi Total Money Supply, through the systematic removal and destruction of the large denomination banknotes, has been reduced enough for the CBI to feel confident enough to continue to raise the value of the IQD up towards 1:1 and thereby have a chance at the de-dollarization of Iraq.

 

Opinion: By the time any on par (1USD:1IQD) exchange rate happens, the Bremer era, De La Rue IQD banknotes will be out of circulation and will no longer be honored or redeemed.

 

Opinion: The CBI will most likely not delete the zeros from their currently circulating high denomination banknotes and any publications about that scenario coming out of Iraq should just be ignored ~ they are meant to fool you into selling your dinar too soon.

Instead, the CBI will most likely raise the value on all notes including the simultaneously introduced new lower denominations notes.

 

 Opinion: There are USD millionaires who have purchased US$ Millions worth of IQD and are now holding IQD Billions and they should know what they are doing, since they are already USD millionaires.

If millionaires who can afford to speculate with US$ Millions think that there is a chance to make a profit speculating on the IQD, then it should be all right for the less well-heeled speculator, shouldn’t it? After all, these millionaires didn’t make their millions by being stupid about money, did they?

 

Opinion: Even if there is a huge rush to cash in and trade IQD’s for USD’s by both Iraqis and (millionaire) foreign currency speculators at the very first re-valued exchange rate published, the IQD will still continue to rise in value against the USD; even at the same time the CBI is depleting its USD Cash Reserves to pay out for the in-coming De La Rue notes.

Only people in the know, such as millionaire currency speculators, understand why this is possible in Iraq, but nowhere else in the world.

 

Opinion: People in the know such as Accredited Investors and Professional Financial Advisors understand about protecting their assets; so it pays to be prepared for an overnight windfall of wealth by following their example or the example of millionaires when preparing for a sudden windfall of wealth.  

 

Perspective: Even prudent (non-millionaire) people have been known to run out of funds diligently earmarked for the maintenance of offshore corporations, bank accounts, trusts, etc. which were set up, kept open and prepared to receive and deal with a sudden windfall of wealth; and that happened while they are waiting on that very same windfall of wealth.

 

All qualified and certified financial advisors and professional investors are not necessarily sufficiently schooled in the international rules governing currencies; despite having passed extensive testing to be qualified and licensed equity traders.

 

Both the IQD and the USD are fiat currencies backed by absolutely nothing more than their own Central Bank’s declaration of worth; neither one is backed by oil, or gold, or silver.

In fact the accepted value of the USD and therefore the IQD (which is pegged to the USD) is only ‘reflected’ in the spot prices of either silver or gold.

Those spot prices are kind of benchmarks to help estimate the purchasing power of the USD (and the IQD) at any given time.

The Fed declares what its notes (promises to pay) are worth and the CBI gets to decide what its own notes (promises to pay) are worth relative to the petro-dollar, aka the USD.

 

Iraq is still the nominal head of the 22 member Arab League of Nations and so anything financial coming out of Baghdad ~ good and bad ~ will be affecting the entire region.

 

Besides Iraq, these countries all call their own fiat currencies, the Dinar: Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Serbia.

 

Besides the Iraqi IQD, both the Bahrain Dinar and the Jordan Dinar are pegged to the USD and Iraq is increasing its diplomatic relationships with Kuwait, again.

 

With these relationships already established and on-going it appears that any major RV of the IQD against the USD might also immediately and directly affect the Kuwaiti Dinar, the Jordanian Dinar and the Bahraini Dinar all of whose central banks are CBI’s immediate neighbors in the region.

 

To be neighborly, the CBI might feel the need to inform those other central banks (and trading partners) that their own currencies were about to be affected by the CBI’s plan to redenominate/revalue the IQD against the USD.

 

Opinion: It’s probably not possible to keep such an IQD RD/RV event a secret given all the trading partners having to be in on the action.

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Sorry about the length of the post.

 

Too much education involving exact descriptions and technical details as a teenager may have ruined some social abilities.

I think I’ve literally been writing technical reports of one kind or another since I was 14 years old; albeit for lots of different reasons over the years ~ from basic electronics to urban survival.

 

I’ve always felt that holding electronic dinars was going to be far easier for me than holding cash; especially since I’ve already tried to deposit IQD cash in banks in Dubai, in Hong Kong and in the USA. Nobody was interested.

 

I worried about being deployed on a job out of country whenever the RD/RV occurred and the (possible) need for me to actually physically be somewhere else handing in the IQD cash to someone in order to get paid on this deal.

 

Consequently, I ended up FedExing most of the IQD cash I brought out of Iraq back into Iraq to fund my Warka accounts at the #790 Baghdad Branch.

 

This Warka downtime gives a person time to consider what actually happens to an electronic dinar account such as a savings account or even an ISX equities account in the event of an RD/RV.

 

The “Opinions” I gathered generally refer to physical currency banknotes, but what about electronic accounts. Do the same rules apply?

 

For example, if this Opinion is true:

The probable scenario for the upcoming redenomination/revalue will be that the existing high denomination De La Rue IQD banknotes will have their value raised; plus at the same time new IQD currency of smaller denomination notes will be put into circulation and with the same new RV exchange rate that the higher denomination notes are given. People will continue to trade in their De La Rue high denomination notes for USD cash and eventually, only the 25,000 notes will be pulled from circulation while all the rest of the existing higher denomination De La Rue notes from IQD10000 on down will be left in circulation to co-exist indefinitely with the newer lower denomination notes which will be in denominations all the way down to IQD 1.

Then what happens to our Warka account balances?

 

Perspective: Pulling only the IQD25000 notes from circulation doesn’t seem like enough to reduce the total money supply from trillions to billions.

With the present rate of 1:1166, Warka makes about 1% whenever a depositor moves funds from their IQD savings to their USD savings at their exchange rate of 1179.

So, if a depositor wanted to move IQD 1 Million from his IQD savings account to his USD Savings account, then: 1,000,000 divided by 1179 = $848.18.

 

Opinion: If according to Opinion there is an equal, across the board, USD exchange rate increase for both the De La Rue high denomination notes and the new low denomination notes at the same time; then it would only seem fair that Warka account balances get the same rate and at the same time and with no loss of zeros in the process.

 

Perspective: If an across the board exchange rate of $0.50 to IQD 1 was launched; and all currency denominations were in play at the same rate, then the exchange rate at Warka would have to reflect the same thing.

So then, moving that same IQD Million to USD: IQD1,000,000 X 0.50 = $500,000.

Hard to fathom that Warka could actually pay out that kind of rate from its own USD Reserves, be they electronic or cash and not run out of dough.

Warka would have to buy USD from the CBI with its own IQD balances in order to supply depositors with either USD cash or electronic transfers on demand.  

 

That’s if that Opinion were true.

 

Perspective: Just think of the lucky Iraqis who have Warka accounts and don’t have to bother first exchanging their high denomination De La Rue IQD10000 ($5000) notes for the new IQD10 ($5) notes before being able to exchange for USD.

And for the unlucky Iraqis the exchange to USD can only happen if there is a local bank that hasn’t been robbed already and which has the USD cash to accommodate.

 

One Iraqi neighbor has cash only and one has minimal cash and a Warka account when the RV is launched.

Mr. Lucky with the Warka account might have to move if his neighbor is too mad at him for being so smart with his ATM card and all.

 

If that Opinion were true.

 

Perspective: According to the way the CBI and the MOF spokesmen have put it, the “project” to reduce the Iraqi Money Supply by exchanging circulating currency notes from high to low denominations will mean that electronic accounts will have their total balances reduced by 3 zeros being removed from the end of the amounts.

At the same time, the exchange rate will move 3 decimal points to the left so that in the end the USD worth of the electronic IQD account will be the same after the project is launched as it was before the project was launched ~ expressed in USD.

We have been told to expect no loss and no gain for all electronic IQD account holders ~ whether Iraqi or foreign.

The affordability of the “project” will be in the cost of the new currency, new electronic outlets and in educating the public; but the no loss/no gain aspect would mean that the CBI doesn’t intend to pay out like Las Vegas slot machine when the “project” is launched.

That’s what the official Iraqi spokesmen have been saying, anyway.

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Phlip, interesting read and thanks for bringing this forward.

You present an In depth and very involved number of scenarios which could POSSIBLY occur, and all of them make sense. The currency has to re value in order for Iraq to become a international player and of coarse become stable enough to entice global interest, but their are so many pieces of this puzzle that must be considered and then again re considered that one gets dizzy trying to decipher information.

I see you have great knowledge and experience in this arena and being, as you say, a technical writer, you have illustrated your points meticulously. The current government with Abadi at the helm seems to be legitimately driven to make Iraq one of the biggest international opportunities ever. For sure they are receiving guidance and a mandate to follow from global interests, and the timing of how things unfold carefully calculated.

Much appreciated.

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Good read, but unclear on your final conclusion.

We have ran these numbers for years, and I believe these are the options:

1). Reduction of zeros with 1 to 1 RV: 1M dinar = 1000 new dinars x $1 Equals break even Most likely option

2). RV at $1 1m dinar x $1 = $1,ooo,ooo. As you stated above, they would not have the funds for this rate

I agree that they want to be established equal to the dollar, so option 1 is the only way to get tree without going bankrupt.

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Thinking about what happens to our Warka account balances when an RD/RV occurs made me think about what happens to the ISX accounts. They’re electronic, too ~ with lots of zeros in the numbers (of shares).

 

Typically, Warka was selling shares @ IQD 1 per share with a minimum buy-in of 200,000 shares.

Cost: IQD 200,000 divided by 1166 = $171.53

Suppose a person bought (5) lots for a total cost of IQD 1,000,000 / 1166 = $857.63.

 

If this Opinion is true:

The CBI wants to get the high denomination notes out of circulation to reduce the total IQD money supply; therefore, the CBI can delete the zero's from the existing currency banknotes by issuing new currency with fewer zero’s on them (for exchange purposes only and at no profit or loss for either party in the exchange) and at the same time raise the value of both sets of IQD Currency against the USD; and that means both foreign speculators and Iraqis can still profit from such a scenario.

Then, how would this apply to our ISX stock shares balances?

 

Opinion: The 1,000,000 ISX shares, bought for $857.63 at IQD 1 per share, would still be 1,000,000 shares, but their value as expressed in USD would change.

For example, if the announced rate of exchange for all 90 Trillion IQD in the Iraqi Money Supply was US$0.50 per IQD 1 then 1,000,000 shares would transcend from being worth $857.63 to being worth: 1,000,000 X $0.50 = $500,000.

 

Opinion: Boy, Howdy! That’s a bit a profit there, eh! Enough for everyone, Habibi!

 

Perspective: According to the CBI official announcements it seems that the 1,000,000 ISX Shares would instead have to be reduced to 1,000 shares; however, those 1000 shares would still be worth the same in USD after the RD/RV project is launched as they were before it was launched. And that amount is $857.63.

 

If the CBI sticks to that already publicly announced drill, then the rate of exchange for those 1,000 shares (@ IQD 1 per share) will have moved from (USD 1 per IQD 1166) to (USD 1 per IQD 1.166 aka US$0.85 per IQD 1).

 

The Iraqi Total Money Supply at today’s rate of exchange is worth 90,000,000,000,000 divided by 1166 = US$76.32 Billion.

In addition the CBI has close to US$90 billion in its USD Reserve Accounts.

 

If the CBI RV’s all 90 Trillion IQD in the Iraqi Money Supply to (US$0.50 per IQD 1), then the net worth of the Iraqi Money Supply would ascend to the lofty heights of US$45 Trillion.

That’s 2.5 times what the US Government owes the Fed.

 

That’s if that Opinion is true.

 

Opinion: That seems like a lot of dough for the CBI to suddenly be in control of just by a fiat declaration of what they think the IQD is worth as expressed in USD.

That’s kind of like the Hussein boys robbing US$920 Million in cash with a hand written note from Dad ~ only different.

 

Perspective: The IQD is still a fiat currency, like most in the world today; but, if the CBI wanted to RV everything in the Iraqi Money Supply up to being worth US$45 Trillion (for example) and also wanted to have that amount backed by oil (@ $100/barrel); then Iraq would have to have 450 Billion barrels of oil ready to ship.

At $50/barrel, Iraq would have to have 900 billion barrels of oil ready to ship.

At $20/barrel, Iraq would have to have 2.25 Trillion barrels of oil ready to ship.

 

Iraq’s is currently considered to have the 5th largest holding of oil reserves in the world at only 140 Billion barrels and most of that total is still underground.

 

Perspective: Iraqi oil production in 2012 was 3 million barrels per day.

Production is predicted to climb to 6 mb/d by 2020 and 8 mb/d by 2035.

 

If we use the not yet reached figure of 6 million barrels/day X 365 as an average, then production might be 2.19 Billion barrels per year.

140 Billion Barrels total reserve capacity divided by 2.19 Billion Barrels annually = 64 years (approximately) to pull all that oil out of the ground.

 

Even if Iraq went “all in” and put up its total estimated reserve capacity of 140 Billion barrels of oil (@ $100 / barrel ~ but still buried) as collateral against a USD Fed loan for the next 60 years; in order to meet its present obligation in IQD, the CBI still could not support an RV that made the 90 Trillion IQD Iraqi Money Supply that exists today worth anything more than 140,000,000,000 X $100 = US$14 Trillion.

At $50 / barrel the maximum RV Iraq could support with oil backing the currency (instead of just a fiat declaration) would be US$7 Trillion.

At $20 / barrel the maximum RV Iraq could support with oil backing the currency (instead of just a fiat declaration) would be US$1.4 Trillion.

 

$14,000,000,000,000 divided by IQD 90,000,000,000,000 = US$0.16 per IQD 1.   

$7,000,000,000,000 divided by IQD 90,000,000,000,000 = US$0.08 per IQD 1.

$1,400,000,000,000 divided by IQD 90,000,000,000,000 = US$0.02 per IQD 1.

 

That’s if that Opinion is true and the CBI is really able to just call “all in” like that on its own fiat currency, on an international scale and without upsetting any other country in the process.

 

Perspective: Central HCL in Baghdad actually only receives a very small portion of the end user (net) price per barrel sold and with that amount (unknown %) it has to satisfy expected returns to all provinces that contributed (and in proper proportion to their contribution); including Kurdistan, and keep enough to run the GOI and also keep enough for the CBI to buck up its USD Reserves as needed.

 

Opinion: The natural resources in oil that Iraq would have to put up to obtain a Multi-Trillion USD loan from the Fed, just to satisfy its own fiat declaration of IQD worth against the USD, seems excessive in the extreme; as it allows the current Iraqi administration to effectively mortgage the country’s most important natural source of wealth for the next 60 years.

You’d think that someone in the GOI/MOF would notice and object.

 

Opinion: If a person had to fight a war, those Kurds would be the ones to stand with. Tough dudes; and with a relatively civilized manner about them.

As we say in the west, “They’ll do to cross the river with” or in the shortened version expressed by those in charge who have to make a decision on the fly ~ “They’ll do”.

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Interesting posts here! At first glance, your calculations seem solid and I understand where you are coming from on a logical level.

 

One thing I'd like to point out that might change your perspective a little is this bit here:

 

 

 

...if the CBI wanted to RV everything in the Iraqi Money Supply up to being worth US$45 Trillion (for example) and also wanted to have that amount backed by oil (@ $100/barrel); then Iraq would have to have 450 Billion barrels of oil ready to ship...

 

You are operating on the premise that the currency needs to actually be backed with something physical. Although I support your reasoning that a currency should be backed with "oil on hand" (or in gold or some other hard asset), that's simply not the case here... the IQD is a fiat currency, and fiat currencies are controlled more by emotion than logic (which is why the US has a 17T and rising debt... but I digress).

 

Also, it's not just Iraq that benefits from an RV... others do as well. The greed of others will allow Iraq to RV to a rate beyond what they can actually cover with "oil on hand"... and that throws all of your numbers off and forces us all to consider this situation with a different set of values.

 

:twocents:

 

Either way... good info for those that care to read. Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing your thoughts with us!

 

:twothumbs:

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Thanks for chiming in on this thread Adam and giving us your perspective. Also, "it's not just Iraq that benefits from an RV... others do as well" your quote here is exactly my thoughts, as stated from my comments above on this thread.

Much appreciated sir.

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Thank you one and all for your kind comments about the readability of the post.

 

I already realize that the language of popular communication can easily go sideways when conveyed across a myriad variety of understandings.

 

It’s important to me for you folks to realize that most of the Opinions expressed in the post are not mine at all; but instead, are a gathering of the most popular and repeated Opinions about the future of the IQD that I’ve seen and heard since I started to pay any attention to them.

 

I would say that most of the Opinions expressed in the post are at odds in very significant ways to the published intentions of both the CBI and the MOF concerning “the project to reduce the Iraqi Money Supply from Trillions to Billions”.

 

That same official CBI Party Line of reducing the Iraqi Money Supply, along with its accompanying minimal impact plan of how the project would actually be accomplished has been put out over most mass media outlets in Iraq for at least the last 5 years ~ so we know that the educating of the Iraqi populace portion of the “project” is well on its way.

 

Therefore, IMO, Opinions that are at odds with the official CBI Party Line deserve as much scrutiny for credibility as does the official CBI Party Line itself ~ which is the reason for the post in the first place.

 

IMO, the Opinions with IQD RD/RV plans that are at odds with the official CBI Party Line are not necessarily alternative ways for an IQD RD/RV to go, at all; in fact, so far they have proven themselves to be just proposed plans at odds with the official CBI Party Line ~ that’s all.

 

Perspective: A few of the Opinions express the CBI Party Line and then go on to describe a plan that is at direct odds with the CBI Party Line.

Credulous, exciting and confusing all at the same time.

 

IMO, some Opinion plans for an RD/RV, as expressed in this post, are definitely not as clear cut a plan to proceed as the Party Line “project” plan seems to be ~ and especially as it has been expressed, so far.

 

Since buying my first De la Rue note @ 1:1500 in Iraq, I’ve been increasingly thankful for coming to the decision to keep a minimal amount of cash at the house and FedExing all the rest of it to Warka for safekeeping and growing while we wait.

Since that first note, and on through any more funds sent to Warka, I feel fortunate that I’ve always paid only bank prices (or less) in the exchange from USD to IQD.

 

Unfortunately, it’s now against Iraqi law to FedEx IQD cash to the front door of Warka Branch # 790 for Mo and Ro to deposit into an account for you.

Mr. Issa informed me by email to that effect and was adamant that any more packages would be turned away back to the FedEx delivery person ~ that was close to 5 years ago.

 

I suppose a person could fly over there, hire some off duty Blackwater types to run you over to the bank; or maybe it’s even in the Green Zone, and you could simply take a taxi from the airport.

If the US Army had an account there and the honcho of the local finance regiment at the time was a Lt Colonel or even a Full Bird, then branch # 790 is probably in the Green Zone ~ but I’m just guessing.  

Anyway, hand the dough to Ro, shake hands with Mo, take a selfie outside (without a Kevlar and the rest of that battle rattle ~ as if you were on vacation) and boogie on back to the airport.

 

A person would have to weigh the desire to be safe against the desire to be secure in a personal quest for the Amrikan Dream ~ financial freedom to live as a Human being with dignity on Planet Earth.

 

All the same, it’s really not up to me to draw any final conclusions regarding the future of the value of the IQD. Every single individual IQD speculator should probably make up their own mind as to the truth.  

I’ve known the high of an anticipated huge windfall of wealth and watched and listened to “The Secret” DVD lots of time while pinning up “manifesting from the ethers” pictures of future possessions/desires onto the office corkboard.

It’s a pretty fun high.

 

However, as Van Morrison says: “I’m Not Feeling It Anymore”.

It’s a pretty good song, if you like to bob your head and tap your feet; or maybe even do both at the same time ~ and the lyrics aren’t bad either.

 

The scenario described whereby the CBI might want to change the IQD from being a fiat currency to one directly backed by oil was not my premise at all; but instead, just a “what if” scenario I presented that was intended to underline the probability that the CBI would never do something like that.

The numbers shown are superfluous, but were included to outline an idea without much credibility at all.

The scenario described was meant to emphasis the “fiat” part of the IQD so that a speculator could discern the truth when hearing any Opinion that the value of the IQD against the IQD could be directly influenced by oil ~ either now or after an RD/RV.

 

I agree that the IQD rate against the USD clearly cannot be influenced by natural resources, including oil.

Thanks for the confirmation.

 

It kind of knocks this opinion right off the serious consideration list:

Opinion: The actual Ratio of Iraqi IQD Money Supply versus the CBI held USD Currency Reserves no longer applies in Iraq because Iraq is special and has a different set of rules going on due to its hidden wealth in oil, gold and dates, etc.

 

And probably this one as well:

Opinion: Because Iraq is so special out of all the countries in the world, the CBI will not have to follow the very same international currency and finance laws that govern all the rest of the countries associated with the IMF; even though Iraq through the CBI (which is still under IMF supervision), has been doing just that ~ right up to current day.

 

IMO, the confirmation of the IQD as a fiat currency buries this particular opinion, too:

Opinion: The CBI will issue new fiat IQD currency with lower denominations on their face to exchange and coexist with the currently circulating high denomination fiat IQD currency and then the CBI will RV all circulating banknotes, both high and low denominations, as a managed float at anywhere from (US$0.10 per IQD 1) to (US$1 to IQD1) and then the demand for oil will drive its value against the USD up from there.

 

After a lifetime under the Fed banks umbrella, and having already experienced the Fed’s international influence overseas, I am fairly well schooled in the mechanics of fiat currencies; and there are international financial rules to follow, if a country wants to get along and play well with others.

IMO, that’s why financial sanctions are used so much prior to any shooting wars.

 

On the other hand, too many international financial sanctions can start a shooting war.

 

IMO, here are at least four examples of opinions I’ve listed in the post that are at odds with themselves and, to me, incredulous and confusing:

 

Opinion: The CBI wants to get the high denomination notes out of circulation to reduce the total IQD money supply.

The CBI can delete the zero's from the existing currency banknotes by issuing new currency with fewer zero’s on them (for exchange purposes only and at no profit or loss for either party in the exchange) and at the same time raise the value of both sets of IQD Currency against the USD; and therefore, both foreign speculators and Iraqis can still profit from such a scenario.

 

Opinion: The CBI will most likely not delete the zeros from their currently circulating high denomination banknotes and any publications about that scenario coming out of Iraq should just be ignored ~ they are meant to fool you into selling your dinar too soon.

Instead, the CBI will most likely raise the value on all notes including the simultaneously introduced new lower denominations notes.

 

Opinion: Even if there is a huge rush to cash in and trade IQD’s for USD’s by both Iraqis and (millionaire) foreign currency speculators at the very first re-valued exchange rate published, the IQD will still continue to rise in value against the USD; even at the same time the CBI is depleting its USD Cash Reserves to pay out for the in-coming De La Rue notes.

Only people in the know, such as millionaire currency speculators, understand why this is possible in Iraq, but nowhere else in the world.

 

Opinion: Once the auctions resume, the IQD should be back on the foreign exchange platforms, and foreign speculators (unlike Iraqi citizens) will get to cash out their De La Rue high denomination notes at the same exchange rate (US$0.85 per IQD 1) that will be applied to the new lower denomination notes inside Iraq; but without having to first go through that pesky ole routine of exchanging old IQD notes for the new IQD notes.

Get ready to be rich all you foreign IQD currency speculators!!

 

Perspective: The following incongruities reveal themselves immediately:

  • The CBI can’t RV all 90 Trillion IQD in the Iraqi Money Supply, then add more volume with new currency notes issued at the same RV rate and at the same time expect to reduce the Total Iraqi Money Supply. Does not compute, comrade.
  • As an example (only) and assuming an RV rate of US$0.50 per IQD, the CBI could not expect to issue new IQD10 notes valued at US$5 and expect Iraqi citizens to trade or exchange them straight across for De La Rue IQD10000 notes valued at US$5000 without a little bit of rancor or resentment on one side or another, and especially if the US$4995 winner of that little encounter were able to later convert to USD.
  • There would definitely be profit and loss in a straight exchange of two notes with 3 zeros difference in denomination, but nevertheless traded at the same exchange rate against the USD. The math can’t be denied.

 

Opinion: My, oh my, Martha there is definitely something wrong with this here deal, eh?

 

Perspective: Since the IQD is indeed a fiat currency, the CBI has little choice but to follow the same rules that all the other IMF members currently adhere to and that is that the Ratio of the Iraqi Total Money Supply to the CBI’s USD Reserve Currency Stash is what describes the limits and acceptable parameters inside which an IQD RV could be declared and still be acceptable within the international community ~ as it is viewed in the mainstream media outlets today.

 

Perspective: If Iraq is indeed bound to those international fiat currency rules as a member of the IMF; whereby the internationally accepted and used Ratio of the Iraqi Total Money Supply (90 Trillion IQD) divided by the CBI USD Reserve Currency stash (90 Billion USD) is what is used to describe the parameters by which the CBI could possibly RV without a ruckus, then 1:1000 seems to be it, right now.

 

Perspective: Using the same Ratio formula that the other IMF members are subject to, if the CBI were to reduce the Iraqi Total Money Supply from Trillions to Billions via their advertised two year currency co-existence year “project” method that they have described in the past; then when the IQD money Supply got down to 90 Billion IQD, the 90 Billion USD in the vaults would warrant an exchange rate of 1:1.

 

IMO, the CBI has been doing a wonderful job of setting that up. 

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In general, the 90 trillion dinar that you keep talking about, represents broad money - which are essentially MONEY created by commercial banks plus CURRENCY from the central bank.

But remember, when we talk about IRAQI money supply; in iraq - dollar and dinar co-circulate.

So eventho u see all the values are reported in dinar, in reality, NOT ALL ARE DINAR.

The ALL dinar values you see, are for accounting purposes only.

According to CBI : Money Supply (M1): represents money in circulation with the public adding to it *current deposits* in national and *foreign currency* for the private sector and public governmental institutions excluding central government.

So there are 3 main components: 1. Currency in circulations, 2. Bank deposits and 3: Foreign currency.

Foreign currency:

How much of those 90 trillions are in foreign currency? I really have no idea now but it used to be in the range of 10-12 billion dollars i.e about 12-14 trillion dinar (source: cbi key financials).

So if Iraq were to rv at 1:1, those 12-14 trillions dinar ( actually, dollar dominated) will become 10-14 billions dinar, in a blink of an eye.

No payouts here. It is a foreign currency deposits.

Bank deposits:

Most bank deposits are actually bank loans.

Whenever a bank creates a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money in the form of bank deposits.

It is not a liability to the banks but receivables.

So no huge or massive payouts here either for these amount.

And most likely, since dollar is king in iraq, most of these loans could be in dollar anyway.

Money in circulations - this is a tricky one.

Iraq import almost everything, thereby the only source of dollar circulating in their market is via cbi. That means, every dollar on the street of iraq are actually dinar 'exchanged'.

Question is: how come they still have 30-40 trillions dinar in circulation if dollar reigns on the street of iraq.

Could they be reporting dinar PLUS dollar as money in circulations?

Hmmm....

ISX:

We all know they are trading shares on ISX.. So it is not really that complicated.

Before rv, 1000 dinar buys 1000 shares.

If they were to rv, say to 1:1, accordingly ~ 1 new dinar will now buy you 1000 shares.

So if you decide to sell your 1000 shares after the rv, you will get 1 dinar.

No habibi!

Edited by zul
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The oil in the ground is actually the collateral

The emotion behind the fiat currency is actually called " credit "

And the money only needs backed as its spent not because it's existence

The notes in a fiat system are actually debt notes , money is a thing of the past , everything is based on debt and credit worthiness now days

It's the external debt that needs backed up

We can circulate dollars domestically continuously for eternity and it doesn't change our soveriegn net worth , but when there's a soveriegn net gain of net loss thru international trade then it's got to be squared away

If iraq were to lose 10 billion in wealth thru trade deficits and projected it would lose 10 billion forever because of its standard of living they simply apply to the imf for sdr to maintain its currency exchange rate as the imf guide them thru restructuring processes which are monitored by the imf so as to maintain their credit rating

In the case of iraq they would most likely increase oil exports to increase its ability to pay for that 10 billion a year they were losing

I think currencys are intended to circulate in certain areas without incurring loss and that's one of the reasons why each country has their own currency and why I believe international debts in the future will be settled thru an new settlement program under the imf using the sdr( special drawing rights) of the IMF

I can give you a small example of what I mean by circulating money and it never changing any thing unless it leaves a given area

$100 Bill

It's a slow day in the small town of Pumphandle and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody is living on credit.

A tourist visiting the area drives through town, stops at the motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.

As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

(Stay with this.....and pay attention)

The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill to his supplier, the Co-op.

The guy at the Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her "services" on credit.

The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel Owner.

(Almost done...keep reading)

The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the traveler will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, picks up the $100 bill and leaves.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town now thinks that they are out of debt and there is a false atmosphere of optimism and glee.

That's how a nations currency at home is circulated and doesn't need to be backed by anything

I've left holes not intentionally but because it would take forever to explain the monetary system

But it is all based on credit ratings and the ability to pay its "external debts "

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Anything that backs up any currency is only collateral it's never actually used for anything , it just sits in a pile and does nothing , like a piece of gold ,

That's what the monetary system has evolved to

It's all based on credit now and the ability to pay its " external debts "

The domestic debt figures are only used to calculate how much external debt a country can service because the servicing of the domestic debt has a price

If your domestic debts are settled each year at a cost of 10 billion dollars in interest payments then that 10 billion is subtracted off the amount of income that a country has to settle external debts

The external debt has to be sustainable

If a country's external debt settlement is more than its income it's not sustainable and woukd need restructuring until it can meet its obligations and if it's not possible they dilute the country's currency to the point that it can

Who loses ?

The citizens since it's their buying power that is sacrificed

Edited by dontlop
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I don't think anyone loses its just how things are balanced and external debts are paid

It's all in the balance of trade

If you constantly have trade deficits your going to constantly lose and your constantly restructuring to a lower net worth

Your private sector can grow you out of it by increasing your gdp you increase your leverage to issue debt

There's to ways to apply that increase

One is to increase your money supply

The other is to increase your exchange rate

It's important to maintain stability to insure a stable credit rating over all

Iraq and most oil exporting country's always maintain a trade surplus but I order to maintain stability they get to buy high priced military equipment

Iraq stopped increasing its money supply now for a year or so it's actually decreasing which is good instead of devaluing its Maintaining by removing currency

They were increasing at a high rate for awhile and now it seems to be under control and going in the right direction

The usa tried to decrease its value but currency wars erupted and everyone followed and decreased theirs too

So we're in the same boat we were in before the meltdown

As far as exchange rates the US dollars strength " against other currencys" is getting stronger even after the treasury printed up 3.1 trillion new dollars in the last 5 years

only because they devalued there's accordingly as the dollar fell the rest of the world followed , they are not letting us off the hook any more

That trick is over

The gdp is increased simply by dollars exchanging hands in the USA so that's where obama care comes in

They increased their borrowing power by increasing the gdp by mandating health care which increases the gdp by a couple trillion dollars a year

I wonder what's next on the mandate list

More govt jobs also come into play

It will eventually destroy the free enterprise system we grew up with

More govt jobs more gdp

More gdp to debt ratio to work with

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I think iraq needs to take a portion of its surplus and add it to the currency value so the people can experience some of the wealth of iraq

Like they did with Kuwaiti debt 5% goes to kuwait off the top

How about 50% of the the trAde surplus go to increasing the dinar value every year

Make legislation that mandates it

Show the world in black and white where the money is going from oil procedes

Not some secret rv

Then they would see the real investors jump aboard

Iraq experienced 160 billion in trade surplus between 2005 and 2013

Where is it ?

We recently saw the 15 richest polititions in iraq combined total 331 billion dollars net worth

If the private sector only averaged 10 billion a year over ten years 100 billion dollars how did these polititions manage to make 331 billion ?

That's only the top 15 polititions in iraq

There's another 300 of them out there who mostijy pocketed the rest while iraqi citizens got zilch

I'd love to see a real govt take over iraq and have them explain where all the money they have came from

But they don't care about iraq they woukd just high tail it out to Lebanon or some other crazy place and hire a gang of militants to protect them

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