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Backdoc Monday Night Post - THE DEFLATION IMPACT - 1/05/2015


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This is a good read that gives valuable insights into current events worldwide, as well as in Iraq....ENJOY..!
RON  :twothumbs:  :salute: 
  
 Backdoc Monday Night Post - THE DEFLATION IMPACT - 1/05/2015  


IMO - "THE DEFLATION IMPACT"

TODAY THE STOCK MARKET SOLD OFF IN A BIG WAY.  SINCE ENERGY RELATED COMPANIES REPRESENT ONLY 10% OF THE STOCK MARKET WHY THE SELL OFF?

SHOULDN’T THE ECONOMY BE ROARING LIKE A LION?   INSTEAD IT’S DOING THE “ OOOOF" LIKE THE COURAGE-LESS LION IN THE WIZARD OF OZ!

WELL, TO LOOK FOR ANSWERS WE NEED TO STEP BACK AND LOOK MORE MACRO!

THE LOWER OIL PRICES ARE HELPING THE U.S. CONSUMER BIG TIME!  THIS IS STARTING TO HELP MAIN STREETS’ ECONOMY. 

SPENDING LESS AT THE PUMP IS TRANSLATING INTO MORE CONSUMER SPENDING WHICH IS HELPING THE US ECONOMY.  SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?
WE ARE NOT AN ISLAND;  WE ARE AN EMPIRE!

THERE IS A MUCH BIGGER GAME BEING PLAYED BEFORE OUR EYES!

MANY FOLKS THINK CHINA IS WORKING AGAINST THE U.S. AND IS TAKING OVER FINANCIALLY! MMMM

WELL, THE FACTS TELL US A DIFFERENT STORY! LET’S SET THE STAGE, SHALL WE? 

WE SEE THE U.S. ECONOMY IMPROVING WHILE THE DOLLAR IS RISING AND HEADING TO PARITY WITH THE EURO!

JAPAN PRINTING MONEY (QE), DEVALUING !

CHINA’S ECONOMY IS SLOWING DRAMATICALLY AND THEY ALSO STARTED PRINTING (QE) IMMEDIATELY WHEN THE FED STOPPED OUR QE IN OCT!

NEXT, WE HAVE THE EU LOOKING TO BEGIN MONEY PRINTING (QE) DUE TO SERIOUS DEFLATION IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIES! MMMM

SO LET ME ASK YOU WHERE DID THIS DEFLATION ALL START?  GLAD YOU ASKED!  THE BLACK GOLD CURRENCY; OIL !!!

AS I’VE TOLD YOU MANY TIMES NOW, BLACK GOLD IS A CURRENCY AND IT WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE EMPIRE JUST LIKE GOLD IS!

OIL IS PREDOMINATELY SOLD IN DOLLARS WORLDWIDE AS IS GOLD, SO IT STANDS TO REASON THAT IF YOU DROP THOSE PRICES, OR CURRENCIES AS I LIKE TO SAY, YOU WILL HAVE A RISING DOLLAR BIG TIME!

IF YOU GO BACK TO THE ECONOMIC CRASH IN 08, WE HAD A DEVASTATING DOWNTURN IN OUR ECONOMY.

THE FED STARTED QE TO THE TUNE OF 85 BILLION DOLLARS PER MONTH. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUED IT DEVALUED PURCHASING POWER OF THE DOLLAR!  WE SAW FARM LAND DOUBLE IN PRICE ALONG WITH CORN AND BEANS AND OIL ECT..

WHEN QE IS DONE IT NOW REQUIRES MORE DOLLARS TO BUY THE SAME SHARES OF STOCK YOU COULD HAVE BEFORE THE QE, DUE TO DEVALUATION!

SOME FOLKS DON’T UNDERSTAND THAT THIS PROCESS CAN BE REVERSED!! THAT’S AN IMPORTANT POINT NOT TO FORGET!!!

THIS EXPLAINS THE HIGHER COST OF OIL THE PAST FEW YEARS AS WELL AS STOCK PRICES MORE THAN DOUBLING!

AS THE DOLLAR IS BEING DEVALUED EVERYTHING COSTS MORE, SINCE THE DOLLAR IS THE MAIN WORLD CURRENCY!

STOCKS HAD NOWHERE TO GO BUT UP AS THE DOLLAR DEVALUES DUE TO QE!
SO IF WE STEP BACK A BIT AND THINK MORE MACRO WHAT WE REALLY SEE IS THE EMPIRE NOW TAKING CONTROL OF THE PRICE OF OIL JUST LIKE THEY CONTROL GOLD!

AS WE SEE IRAQ WORK TO COMPLETE THEIR BUDGET WE HEAR THEM SAY, HIGHER TAXES, TARIFFS, THEFT RECOVERY, IMF LOANS, INCREASED PRODUCTION, BUDGET CUTS, AND ECONOMY DIVERSIFICATION!

DID YOU CATCH THAT VERY IMPORTANT ONE? RIGHT, INCREASED PRODUCTION!
THEY ARE DOING THAT AS WE SPEAK.  IN FACT, JANUARY WILL BE THE LARGEST OIL PRODUCTION THEY HAVE HAD IN 35 YEARS!!

THE EMPIRE WANTS CONTROL OF THIS MARKET, THEREFORE, IRAQ NEEDS LOWER PRICING TO STEAL WORLD MARKET SHARE AWAY FROM RUSSIA, BRAZIL, VENEZUELA, ARGENTINA, INDIA, AND CHINA.  THESE COUNTRIES HAVE EXTRACTION COSTS OF NEAR A 100.00 PER BARREL!

ONCE THE OIL MARKET FINDS A BOTTOM WHICH MAY BE RIDICULOUSLY LOW, I THINK IT WILL RECOVER BUT REMAIN LOWER THAN THE EXTRACTION COSTS OF THESE OTHER BRIC COUNTRIES! 

BACK TO DEFLATION.  THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY COLLECTIVELY IS BIGGER THAN THE U.S. ECONOMY AND IT IS IN A DEFLATION MODE BIG TIME!

WITH OUR ECONOMY DOING REASONABLY WELL AT THE MOMENT THINGS ARE CHANGING. ITS HARD TO SEE WHY WE ARE VULNERABLE BUT THIS IS A GLOBAL MARKET NOW. 

THE DOLLARS' RISE HAS BEEN SO QUICK AND SO STRONG DUE TO THE FACTORS I MENTIONED EARLIER. THIS MAKES THE U.S. PRODUCTS MORE EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS!

AHH, NOW YOU SEE WHY DEMAND IS DOWN IN EUROPE! IT COSTS THEM MORE AS THEIR CURRENCY DEVALUES.

NOW, WITH THE DOLLAR RISING THE STOCK MARKET IS BECOMING OVERVALUED QUICKLY!

NORMAL VALUATION IS AROUND 15 TIMES EARNINGS.

CURRENTLY WE ARE LOOKING AT 18 TIMES PLUS AND RISING! MMMM

IT DOESN’T LOOK LIKE THE DOLLARS RISE IS ABOUT TO PEAK OUT ANY TIME SOON SINCE THESE OTHER COUNTRIES ARE DOING QE!  IN FACT IT MAY PICK UP SPEED!! 

THE NOTION OF A DOLLAR CRASH IS SIMPLY A FALSE REALITY AT THIS POINT.  THERE WILL BE A STRONG DOLLAR, WHETHER IT IS TREASURY BASED DOLLAR OR THE CURRENT FED DOLLAR. 

REMEMBER, THE TAX PAYER IS NOW ON THE HOOK FOR BANK FAILURES IN THE U.S. DUE TO REVISIONS OF THE DODD-FRANK LAW JUST PASSED ON THE U.S. BUDGET LAW.  MMMM

CHINA IS IN WORSE SHAPE THAN THE U.S.. THEIR COMPANIES HAVE THE HIGHEST DEBT LOAD IN THE WORLD. THAT IS JUST FOR STARTERS AS WE HAVE SEEN ARTICLES ON THAT ISSUE.

CHINAS’ QUEST TO BECOMING A SECOND RESERVE CURRENCY IS CERTAINLY ON TRACK BUT AT 18% OF THE MARKET CURRENTLY, THEY ARE NO COMPETITION TO THE DOLLAR YET.

THE QUALITY OF ECONOMIES MATTER BIG TIME!!

THE QUALITY OF THE EU ECONOMY INCLUDING GERMANY IS BETTER THAN CHINAS' AS STATED TODAY ON CNBC! 

CHINA IS AN EXPORTING BASED ECONOMY AND IS UNDER SEVERE STRESS DURING THESE DEFLATIONARY CONDITIONS. 

I MIGHT GO SO FAR AS TO SAY WITHOUT A GROWTH ENVIRONMENT CHINA WILL BE PRONE TO FINANCIAL COLLAPSE!  THIS HAS BEEN STATED BY MANY EXPERTS AS WELL.

NOW HERE’S THE CONUNDRUM:  WITH PARTS OF THE U.S. ECONOMY GROWING THE FED WORRIES ABOUT IT OVER HEATING OR GROWING TOO FAST BUT IF THEY RAISE RATES TO SLOW DOWN THE GROWTH IT COULD MAKE THE DOLLAR GROW EVEN STRONGER AND PUT IT IN HYPER SPEED STRENGTH!

THE WORLD IS IN A DEFLATION CRISIS WHICH MAY PICK UP SPEED, THE NET RESULT MAY BE COUNTRIES MELTING DOWN FINANCIALLY!

MAYBE THERE IS A ANOTHER REASON WHICH I WILL MENTION LATER IN THIS POST.

WE ALREADY KNOW DEMAND IS SLOWING AND IF YOU ADD TO THAT INCREASED PRODUCTION OF OIL WE HAVE A SCARY RECIPE IN THE MAKING!

THE MARGIN DEBT OF TRADERS RIGHT NOW IS AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL IT’S BEEN SINCE THE .COM BUBBLE IN THE 90’S WHEN THE MARKET CRASHED!

JUST A SIDE NOTE HERE, THAT WAS WHEN THE KUWAITI DINAR TOOK ON A NEW VALUE!! MMMM

AS I’VE TOLD YOU BEFORE, OIL WILL DECLINE IN PRICE.  WELL, THAT’S OLD NEWS NOW!  THEN I SAID GOLD WOULD ALSO DROP!  YES, THAT’S ALREADY STARTED BUT MORE TO GO SINCE OIL IS STILL DROPPING AND THE DOLLAR IS RISING.
 
THE BRIC COUNTRIES WILL BE CRUSHED FINANCIALLY DUE TO THESE FALLING OIL PRICES SINCE THEIR ECONOMIES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OR CONNECTED TO IT IN SOME WAY!

AS THE BRIC COUNTRIES TRY TO support THEIR FALLING CURRENCIES THEY WILL BE FORCED TO SELL GOLD OR DOLLARS TO PROP UP THEIR CURRENCIES AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN THE CASE OF RUSSIA!  THIS WILL CAUSE GOLD TO DROP FURTHER!

THAT’S WHEN WE WILL BE BUYERS! 

I WILL START WITH BUYING COLLECTIBLE COINS FIRST.  THEN I WILL LOOK TO BE A BUYER IN THE GOLD MINERS STOCKS WHEN THE GOLD MARKET IS AT ITS’ LOW.

WHO WILL BE THE BEST ONE?  I ALREADY GAVE YOU CLUES ON THAT!

I SOLD MY GOLD AROUND THE $1850 PER OUNCE!  I TRIPLED MY MONEY!  NOT BAD HUH?  IF THERE IS ONE THING I’VE LEARNED IT'S THAT WE NEED TO FOLLOW THE BAKERS DOZEN!  I WILL REFRAIN ON WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN GOING LATELY! MMMM

WE WILL SEE IRAQ CONTINUE TO TAKE MARKET SHARE IN THE OIL MARKET WHICH IS WHY I BELIEVE THE LOWER OIL PRICES WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME!
A RECOVERY TO 60 TO 70 DOLLARS PER BARREL MAY BE THE SWEET ZONE AFTER THE CRISIS IS OVER!  WE WILL SEE.

MAKING MONEY IN THE MARKETS IS ABOUT BUYING OR SELLING SOMETHING AT THE RIGHT TIME!!! TIMING!!

WE ARE JUST BEGINNING TO SEE A MAJOR EVENT TAKING SHAPE.  WHY?
 
BECAUSE SOMETHING REALLY IMPORTANT IN THE FINANCIAL WORLD IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE!

MY COMMENTS NOW WILL ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN WHY WE WILL NOT BE WAITING ANOTHER TWO YEARS OR SO TO SEE VALUE IN THE DINAR..!

THE TRIGGER HAS ALREADY BEEN PULLED TO ICE THIS TRADE!  ITS HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT!

1. OIL PRICES LOWERING IN PREPARATION TO GAIN MARKET SHARE.

2. GOLD DROPPING DUE TO COUNTRIES PREVENTING CURRENCY COLLAPSE

3. THE DOLLAR ON A TEAR

4. COMMITMENT OF A BUDGET STARTING RETROACTIVE 1/1/15 REGARDLESS OF VOTE TIMING

5. HUNDREDS OF LAWS READY TO BE ACTIVE AFTER A VOTE ON ONE BASKET OF LAWS

6. PLANS FOR FINAL BUDGET READING AND FINAL VOTE ON WED. THE 7TH (THE PERFECT NUMBER).

7. ISX CHANGED THE OPENING DATE FROM THE 7TH TO THE 12TH SINCE THE STOCK MARKET RUNS FROM MON. THROUGH THURS. NORMAL HRS.

8. THERE ARE BOND INTEREST PAYMENTS, IMF LOAN PAYMENTS, AND CONTRACTS TO BE FULFILLED!!  ALL OF THESE ARE REQUIRED TO BE SETTLED IN IQD!! 

UNLESS IRAQ WANTS TO DESTROY ALL OF THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS OF REDUCING THE CURRENCY FROM THE PUBLIC FLOAT, (IE REDUCING THE NOTE COUNT), IRAQ WILL NEED A REALITY RATE!

9. COUNTLESS ARTICLES STATING THAT THEY ARE DOING FINANCIAL RENOVATION!  THE IRAQI BANKS ARE BEING TOLD NOT TO DO ANY TRANSACTIONS ON THE 7TH AND THE 8TH AS PER DELTA!!! MMMM

10. I LIKE THE FACT THAT THURS. IS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF A 8TH AT 8:00 !!
MMMM AND THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW ARE HOLIDAYS UNTIL MONDAY IN WHICH THE ISX OPENS! MMMM

AS I STATED, OIL WILL REPRICE TO THE STRONG DOLLAR, AS WILL GOLD, AS WILL THE STOCK MARKET!!

NOW LET ME SHARE A HYPOTHESIS I’M WORKING ON SO IT’S PURELY MY THOUGHTS FOR NOW AND NOT A GUARANTEE OK?

PART OF THE MANIPULATION TO THE DOLLAR WE KNOW IS TO PUT A HURT ON THE BRICS ECONOMIES BUT I MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER REASON.

WE ARE SEEING THE DOLLAR COMING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE VALUE OF THE EURO OR PARITY AS WE SAY!

POSSIBLY WE COULD SEE THE BRITISH POUND ALSO COME DOWN AS THE QE KICKS IN SINCE IT WILL MAKE THE DOLLAR EVEN STRONGER!!!

OK WHERE AM I GOING? COULD WE BE SEEING AN END TO THE EURO AND A CONSOLIDATING OF THE EU AND US ECONOMIES IN PREPARATION TO THE MULTILATERAL SYTEM OF THE SDR? 

WE WILL CONTINUE TO STUDY THIS!  IF I’M RIGHT, WE MIGHT SEE AN EVEN BIGGER DEFLATIONARY EVENT BETWEEN NOW AND THIS SUMMER!!  THIS WILL CREATE A BANKING CRISIS OF BAIL-INS AS WELL AS BOND MARKET MELTDOWNS IN COUNTRIES! 

THE STOCK MARKET WILL REPRICE MUCH LOWER!

I THINK WE ARE VERY CLOSE NOW TO A RE-INSTATEMENT.

WE SHOULD EXPECT THE IRAQI DINAR BEGIN ITS JOURNEY TO BECOME THE LONELIEST CURRENCY IN THE WORLD VERY SOON NOW! 

8@8, DOC 
IMO
 

 

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I like it.... :twothumbs: the read was well put together and seems in line with what is CURRENTLY going on.. :twocents: .. love the mention of a RI.... BUT <_<  that remains to be seen or likely the route... but all in all...great information... 

 

GO RV!!! 

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Thanks for the post.!

Good read.!

Go Iraq

Go dollar

Go dinar

Go strong $1.13:1

I expect to see BIG changes on January 2015

any day in Jan that you like?? 

or the whole month, love your positive attitude,

thanks for keeping upbeat

 

thanks for post ron

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I like it.... :twothumbs: the read was well put together and seems in line with what is CURRENTLY going on.. :twocents: .. love the mention of a RI.... BUT <_<  that remains to be seen or likely the route... but all in all...great information... 

 

GO RV!!! 

 

I agree Need, very well put together.  Go RV!

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