Report: GCC countries may benefit from the security tensions in Iraq

[yota691]

Report: GCC countries may benefit from the security tensions in Iraq

 

June 25, 2014 14:58   Last Updated: June 25, 2014 14:58Source: Live

 

 

Said the weekly report of Emirates NBD that oil prices have risen recently as a result of security tensions in Iraq; and we find that the GCC countries benefit from it as a result of the high current accounts and surpluses for investment, which will lead to increased spending on infrastructure projects, and an increase in bank lending to sectors public and private, thereby contributing to stimulate GDP growth at a time provides the Gulf markets value and superior returns over the medium term. On the other hand, returns remained the U.S. for 10 years within a specified range in the short term between 2.55 - 2.65%, after recording discount rates on the level of the specified height within the expectations of U.S. inflation, which rose from the bottom recorded in May at 2.4% to a climax when the last 2.66%.Against the backdrop of the recent ascent of the shares, played a sudden appetite for acquisitions role in controlling bond yields over the long term. Bond yields have been affected in the short term to a large extent, especially for two years, rising from the level of 0.32% to 0.49% for the comparable so the levels recorded in September 2009. caused a new wave of global bond issues with some signs of weakness in the credit markets cross. The Gulf region has two versions of a new, where he issued "CBQ" bonds worth U.S. $ 750 million for 5 years and a profit rate of 2.875% (+117 basis points above the standard rate), while the Bank "Ras Al Khaimah National" pricing bonds worth 500 million dollars for 5 years at a rate of profit of 3.25% (top 160 basis points from the average rate swap compared with the benchmark index). We still await the issuance of "Al Hilal Bank" instruments of the first tranche calculated in U.S. dollars this week, which comes in the wake of the issuance of the British government for the first time instruments sovereign U.S. dollar for 5 years. On the other hand, remained "Dubai government investment," and the two "Indian Railways "and" Reliance Holding "America within our convictions related to trading in the fixed income market. Our focus and derives strength from trading on the pressure difference between the price of supply and demand - especially for "Dubai government investment", the investment arm of the Dubai government - and also the weakness of the versions of the companies with respect to the bond market in India. And has more details on these foundations upon request. expect continued weakness in the credit markets with the approach of regional holy month of Ramadan next week. We find some opportunities in emerging markets, including the United Arab Emirates; Therefore, we recommend the adoption of curriculum defensive relatively both when Antqaoualaútmanat or choose the appropriate points in the market. On the other hand, contributed to "the Fed" again to push the stock markets to rise to new highs cross to pay investors optimism during a press conference "to the FOMC." Commenting on the quarterly forecasts of the new American economy. pointed head of "Fed" Janet Yellen that the U.S. economy is on the verge of a wave of recovery and growth through the year 2014 after a difficult start in Oaúlh, where walking inflation in line with expectations, "the Fed" But there is some slack in the labor market, despite the expansion of the economy. As a result, we expect interest rates to remain low for a longer period after the end of quantitative easing; This is exactly what investors chants heard with regard to achieving growth, declining inflation rates, interest rates and low core. And unlikely to lead to positive results if the continued growth of the U.S. economy and interest rates rose as expect, therefore, will go down the U.S. stock market performing well along with the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, revealed new clues about the stock in the euro area;, as predicted, "the European Central "- who began the application of unconventional measures to ease fiscal policy during its meeting on June 5 last - to make further efforts, may be forced to adopt quantitative easing measures in the asset purchase on the back of lackluster outlook for growth and inflation in the euro zone. In that event, we expect to record the stock a positive performance in parallel with the decline in the value of the euro in a scene reminiscent of the impact of quantitative easing on the U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar. in a related context, the governor said, "Bank of England" openly about the possibility of raising interest rates sooner than expected by markets as a result of the continuous improvement of the British economy. In this way the "Bank of England" the first central bank in the developed markets depends hard-line policy, which previously contributed to the achievement of the currency to its highest level in several years. influenced quantitative easing measures adopted by the "Bank of Japan" on the performance of Japanese stocks significantly. And is expected to adopt further quantitative easing measures associated with the structure of government measures aimed at enhancing growth rates in the medium and long term. It is expected that stock markets are performing well, and to register the yen more than doubled. Consequently, we recommend investors to benefit from the easing of monetary policy by central banks or governments, and harmonize their investment decisions accordingly. We expect to continue to stock markets advanced ascent except for the United Kingdom. As for the currency, lower Venrgeh most major currencies against the U.S. dollar, except the pound sterling. gold was the biggest beneficiary of the unexpected rise in inflation rates in the U.S. last May 24. In this context, we will continue to monitor whether U.S. inflation rates will fall in the coming months, which could keep the gold within a limited range. We also expect to record oil prices climb further, as unlikely to reach ore "Brent" to the highest level at U.S. $ 120 within 3 months.

 

[calkid11]

Good read , Thank you

[AmericaInc]

Good read , Thank you

thank you

[Wiljor]

Thanks Yota, as always war creates other business opportunities and since oil represents BIG business in that part of the world, coupled with everyone trying to get their share of the pie, driving price per barrel to all time highs, of coarse many will benefit.

Much appreciated

[ronscarpa]

Thanks for the article YOTA (+1)...!   

[sandfly]

THANKS