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Adam Montana weekly - June 11, 2014


Adam Montana
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Good morning everyone!

 

I am running behind today, so let's keep it short and sweet.

 

1. Parliament supposed to wrap up current session shortly. Hopefully budget will be passed, but I'm not too concerned with that either way.

 

2. 2nd largest city in Iraq Mosul has been taken over by Al Quaida, Maliki calls for State of Emergency. This could be good, because it would give him executive authority to make some MAJOR moves. His goal should be to quash opposition, angle towards a resolution of HCL with the Kurds in order to prevent them from acting individually and cutting Baghdad off from future oil profits, and he should be taking swift action to regain control of Mosul. We will see how this pans out in the next week or so. http://iqd.me/l/w11g

 

3. Regardless of the Mosul situation, Oil Minister declares oil exports will not be affected. This is KEY for any potential raise in the value of the currency, so I am VERY happy to see this article! http://iqd.me/l/w11d

 

4. Election results should be announced (officially) any day now... but for all those that are certain Maliki will not remain in his position, I have to ask this... who will replace him? There is nobody. And also, why would they be calling for MALIKI to attend these meetings if there was significant chance for him to be outed? I simply don't think he's going anywhere, and if he plays his cards right this is a prime opportunity to make significant progress towards a stronger government, country, and currency. http://iqd.me/l/w11e  There is also a few examples out there of major support for Maliki, like this one: http://iqd.me/l/w11f

 

I'm not saying I like Maliki! But I do think that if he's replaced, Iraq will be taking 2 steps backwards, and it will take a couple years for the next PM to be in as strong of a situation to raise the value of the currency. For me, Maliki is the lesser of evils and is the best man for the job at this time. :twocents:

 

 

 

whatsthis     I have a big Question & I think it is big enough to get a responce on for everyones sake.I saw news a of the Kurds saying they will secede from Iraq if Maliki gets third term, & I just saw the Kurdish Government has a plan to print their own currency for that perpose. Now a lot of people think they won't because they are landlocked but they have shown they have that beat buy a deal struck with Turkey for the next 50 years with a clause for extending it. So do you fell this is a problem for Iraq if the Kurds leave & should we be ready to get Kurdish currency s

 

Good question! I don't see a real possibility of the Kurds actually seceding. I know the idea has been thrown out there a few times, but I don't see it happening. (If I am wrong, and they do, there will be a lot of investment opportunities - not just the currency. :twocents: )

 

waitingondinar     Adam,  Can you sum up where we are now with the news that has been provided so far?  There was news out of Iraq that June (middle of the year) we would see a rate for the dinar.  Still no word.  Many seem to think Malaki is toast but none have provided any information to substantiate this rationale.  The Kurds seem to be selling their oil and don't care what the rest of Iraq does.  The Kurdish region is trying to determine what share of the oil money they will receive.   Now there is talk of something happening in July.  Do we then keep pushing out all the target dates?  Do you see this going out 1 year, 2 years?????  Thanks for your input

 

 

Hi waiting - you are correct on a lot of that. Although there is "talk of Maliki being toast", nobody has a solid answer for who would replace him. Again, I am still standing on my opinion that Maliki will remain in his position. 

 

Regarding the timeline, we are going to have to keep an eye on this Mosul situation and the current Parliament session before we will have a solid clue.

 

 

MRCHIPS       Adam, after the RV happens and we are off to a foreign country to cash in our Dinars or Dongs at the bank you have provided for us:
1. Is the bank going to just count out a million USD and give them to us in a bag.... [comment clipped]

 

 

Not a chance! Please read the "Cash In Guide", I explained this very carefully in it. (It's free here: http://dinarnews.net/cashinguide.php )

 

(I clipped the rest of the question because it's irrelevant once you understand the first part.)

 

1967     Adam, knowing each year you say nothing will be done during Ramadan does that hold true this year? With possible govt in place as well as ISX going international July 1 do you think possibility of RV just prior to Ramadan or during Ramadan or will we wait a month if not done prior to Ramadan? Thank you for keeping us grounded!

 

At this time I would place my wager on "nothing will be done during Ramadan", but the current situation makes me consider hedging that bet. We will have a better idea over the next couple days/weeks.

 

 

================ part 2 coming soon... ===================

 

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NMW       With Islamic militants taking over parts of Mosul on Tuesday, will this be a big problem for us.  Sounds like Iraq is losing control of the country to this group slowly but surely.  Thanks to you and your staff for all the work you do for us.

 

NMW, thanks for the comment.  :twothumbs:

 

geographer         Good morning Adam, Have a couple of related questions. I was reading on the Aerobic CBI Bank site that stated:  1) Banks authorized to exercise all banking (SWIFT message)   2) Banks authorized to exercise all banking to money transfers companies approved all department of windows buying and selling of foreign currency.  Thought this looked really good when I read that Al-Qaeda had taken over Mosul and has control over Fallujah so where does this leave any possibility of an RV until they regain control of this situation?  I also want to know, if you know why, there such a difference between what they post the CBI English site as to the Aerobic site where there is a lot more information posted daily?  I am also including the link so others can look as well. http://cbi.iq/?pid=Home&lang=ar. Then you will have to use google translator to read. 

 

 

It's pretty likely that we will have to see how the Mosul situation progresses before we see any movement on a rate change.

 

Regarding the activity on the Arabic side of the CBI site... that's their native language, and they simply don't care if non-arabic speakers can read the news.  :shrug:

 

waitingondinar      Hi Adam, I am watching the world news and don't like what I am seeing in Iraq.  The radical Islamists have captured Fallujah and Mosul, two cities the US fought to take over for the Iraqi people.  The Iraqi soldiers were out-gunned and consequently ran away.  How will this affect the government/RV?  Thanks

 

 

I don't like it either, but it's not quite time to toss in the towel. 

 

countryroads     Adam, from what I am seeing with the insurgents moving at will in Iraq, . it looks as though things are playing (if only temporarily) into Maliki's hands What's your take on this? It would also appear to me that the Iraqi's need to do some upgrading to their military forces, and that means buying more modern equipment. If this is what they plan to do then they had better RV quickly if they want to buy on the international market.  So it appears that this may be good for us. What do you think?

 

I think you make a good point! As negative as things may look at times, there is always a way to turn it positive and use to one's advantage. I'm definitely keeping an eye on this situation to see how things evolve.  :twothumbs:

 

Hellifiknow      Cival war !! ??   American gov functioned during our cival war but we had been up n running a while.

 

If it was Baghdad instead of Mosul, I'd be extremely concerned. 

 

duty.rec     Hi Adam,  Now that the Islamists have taken over two regions and are going for more, how do you think this will delay the RV indefinitely

Go RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV.

 

I don't! It may cause some delay, but not indefinitely.

 

dwells92250    Adam,  At the end of your post last Wed., you said that you would have some info for those of us OSI members about a second passport by the end of the week....

 

 

 

I said you'd hear from me on that by the end of the month, not the end of the week. I have a couple things left to  do before that email goes out. Thank you for your patience, it will be worth it!

 

===================================

 

 

That's it for now everyone... I'll be watching the situation and I'll send an email if anything major happens. For now, it seems to be "business as usual" and we continue to wait.

 

Best regards,

 

- Adam

 

:tiphat:

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Hmmm - Thanks for the update - Well here we go again - WAIT WAIT WAIT - It seems like everytime Iraq reaches one mile stone another situation occurs - Man this is frustrating - I read many articles saying that RV will not happen in Iraq because of their government is not in order, all the killings, bombing, etc.  I hoping this is not true but who knows - not good at all

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Hmmm - Thanks for the update - Well here we go again - WAIT WAIT WAIT - It seems like everytime Iraq reaches one mile stone another situation occurs - Man this is frustrating - I read many articles saying that RV will not happen in Iraq because of their government is not in order, all the killings, bombing, etc.  I hoping this is not true but who knows - not good at all

Well, as we all know... It's not exactly a stable Country....

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Thanks Adam. We all look forward to Wednesdays but I for one will not be sorry when this ride is over and I am not waiting for Wednesdays for answers. Be nice just to come into the site and shoot the breeze.................'

'

Have a great one everyone

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Good morning everyone!

I am running behind today, so let's keep it short and sweet.

1. Parliament supposed to wrap up current session shortly. Hopefully budget will be passed, but I'm not too concerned with that either way.

2. 2nd largest city in Iraq Mosul has been taken over by Al Quaida, Maliki calls for State of Emergency. This could be good, because it would give him executive authority to make some MAJOR moves. His goal should be to quash opposition, angle towards a resolution of HCL with the Kurds in order to prevent them from acting individually and cutting Baghdad off from future oil profits, and he should be taking swift action to regain control of Mosul. We will see how this pans out in the next week or so. http://iqd.me/l/w11g

3. Regardless of the Mosul situation, Oil Minister declares oil exports will not be affected. This is KEY for any potential raise in the value of the currency, so I am VERY happy to see this article! http://iqd.me/l/w11d

4. Election results should be announced (officially) any day now... but for all those that are certain Maliki will not remain in his position, I have to ask this... who will replace him? There is nobody. And also, why would they be calling for MALIKI to attend these meetings if there was significant chance for him to be outed? I simply don't think he's going anywhere, and if he plays his cards right this is a prime opportunity to make significant progress towards a stronger government, country, and currency. http://iqd.me/l/w11e There is also a few examples out there of major support for Maliki, like this one: http://iqd.me/l/w11f

I'm not saying I like Maliki! But I do think that if he's replaced, Iraq will be taking 2 steps backwards, and it will take a couple years for the next PM to be in as strong of a situation to raise the value of the currency. For me, Maliki is the lesser of evils and is the best man for the job at this time. :twocents:

Good question! I don't see a real possibility of the Kurds actually seceding. I know the idea has been thrown out there a few times, but I don't see it happening. (If I am wrong, and they do, there will be a lot of investment opportunities - not just the currency. :twocents: )

Hi waiting - you are correct on a lot of that. Although there is "talk of Maliki being toast", nobody has a solid answer for who would replace him. Again, I am still standing on my opinion that Maliki will remain in his position.

Regarding the timeline, we are going to have to keep an eye on this Mosul situation and the current Parliament session before we will have a solid clue.

Not a chance! Please read the "Cash In Guide", I explained this very carefully in it. (It's free here: http://dinarnews.net/cashinguide.php )

(I clipped the rest of the question because it's irrelevant once you understand the first part.)

At this time I would place my wager on "nothing will be done during Ramadan", but the current situation makes me consider hedging that bet. We will have a better idea over the next couple days/weeks.

================ part 2 coming soon... ===================

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As always, nothing ever happens before Ramadan..... Nothing ever happens during Ramadan..... And Nothing ever happens after Ramadan.  Other than that, we are VERY close.... closer than we have ever been before.   GOOOOO RRRRRVVVVVVV  !

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I do not see how anything will happen as long as Iraq is unstable.  Al Qaeda is taking over quickly and will be interesting to see how far they get.  We trained 10's of thousands of Iraqi Army and Police and if Obama had the SOFA agreement, Al Qaeda would not own Fallujah and Mosul currently. Lost a lot of friends in Iraq and what is happening there makes me really sad and really ticked off.

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As always, nothing ever happens before Ramadan..... Nothing ever happens during Ramadan..... And Nothing ever happens after Ramadan.  Other than that, we are VERY close.... closer than we have ever been before.   GOOOOO RRRRRVVVVVVV  !

Story of my life. Not proud of it.

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Adam, I just listened to FOX News at 3 PM this afternoon. Lots of discussion about Iraq and the bad situation there.  Fox News is reporting many major cities have been taken over by this militant group and the people are fleeing from all major cities. Fox News says the Iraqi police and military people (the Iraqi soldiers) just  left their positions and all the equipment the US gave them to fight the the enemy in the Militants hands. It's a sad day and a bad scene in Iraq. The US spent 17 billion there to give the Iraqi's their freedom. We lost 4000 good men and women there in that fight.

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The national alliance has not named their candidate for strategy reasons.  They will nominate someone right after the election results are official.  It sounds like Chalabi would be the most likely guess but it could be someone else, like Mehdi.  It will not be Maliki.  Maliki is still the acting pm which is why he is in on all these meetings.  

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Here the Italian TV 24h News Channel keeps talking about Iraq today... Says Mosul has been conquered  by The Islamic Army  Of Iraq  And Levant , Tikrit has been taken and then re-conquered by Iraqi Forces, Falluja also has been taken.....Sounds worse than the usual bad.

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Adam, you seem to be "running behind" and in a hurry every Wednesday.

However, thanks for whatever information you may have.

I'm a pretty busy man :)

To be completely blunt, the weekly chats aren't a priority for me. I spend my most valuable time working behind the scenes for the VIP and OSI members.

It's really only about every 4 or 5 weeks that I find I have time to devote a full 3+ hours to the weekly chat., instead of the 2 hours I dedicated on a day like today... So yep, it makes sense that 4 out of 5 chats I am rushed and don't get to spend more than a couple hours on the public service that I do for free.

Cheers :tiphat:

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