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Tlar's Thursday Commentary - 05/22/2014


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Tlar's Thursday Commentary - 05/22/2014

Tlar COMMENTS - The elections are over. The coalition got approximately 190 MP'S in parliament. Maliki's party the SOL received 93 MP's.

There is a basic miss-understanding in dinarland on what these results mean. There are many that think because Maliki's block got the most votes that he won. Even in our own press here in the US many pundits say he has won a third term. He did not.

Iraq is a parliamentary system and in order for Maliki to win a third term he must get (one half plus one) meaning 165 MP'S to vote yes for him..

That means out of 328 MP'S he must get 165 to join him when parliament reconvenes in order to get a third term and that's providing the SOL even submits his name for the a nominee.

Hakim's coalition won the elections managing to put together 190 MP'S meaning they are way over (one half plus one) and no government can be formed without their approval.
~~~
Every member of the coalition has made it known that they want a non-sectarian government and NO Maliki as PM. Because they got a190 MP'S it is numerically impossible for Maliki to win.

The SOL realizes this and so they will not nominate Maliki unless he can pull some big blocks away from the coalition. They are giving Maliki a little time to try to pull that off.

Iran put pressure on these coalition blocks and to a man they held tight, refusing to allow Maliki a third term. Iran backed off because they could not bust the coalition. Yesterday an article came out that said Iran does not back Maliki and instead backs the NA and whoever they decide they want for pm..

This is an indication that Iran understands Iraqi politics and does not want to be seen backing a dead horse because they would lose their influence. I will say this again. MALIKI IS OUT. He just hasn't left yet because he is fighting literarily for his life. But if he can't break the coalition then he is gone.

There are some out there who think he has a chance and have said things on the web to that effect because his group got the most votes. These people don't understand the process but will catch up soon and once they do, they will see I'm right. MALIKI LOST THIS ELECTION. So pay no attention to those that say he won. This will sort itself out in the next two to three weeks.

On another note. Hakim spent the last 6 months meeting with all the Shia blocks and with the Turkman, Sunni's and Kurds organizing his "defeat Maliki" plan but he went much further with those meeting looking forward. He was instrumental in getting the nominating process changed in the NA.

He has gone as far as to present a list of potential PM candidates to the coalition members and he has gotten their feelings on who would be acceptable to all. The SOL is not confined to pick their nominee from their block but can pick their nominee from any block in the NA.

I am sure that once they come to terms that their man will never be PM that they will sit with the coalition and all will decide who will be the next PM. The SOL is only one block in the NA.

The right to choose a PM belongs to the NA, not the SOL alone even though the SOL will get first pick. The old guard in the SOL that wanted Maliki and status quo will come around probably by next week and realize the position they are in, and unless they want to commit political suicide and marginalization, they will negotiate and choose someone acceptable to all.

Once that is done the government will be put together quickly starting Jun 15th as everybody will already know who the top positions go to. The power broker in all of this is Hakim. Everyone is listening to him and everyone in his coalition is on board with this.

There will be many confusing articles as day by day Maliki remains hopeful. Maliki has government newspapers and TV stations so expect declarations and lies from him about he is the winner and he is assured a third term. Its just bluster and does not mean anything.

We probably will hear that the Sunni's agreed to go with him or the Kurds have decided to go with him. These will be lies put out in his pathetic attempt to break the coalition. I put nothing past this crook. They will be followed right away with denials by the sects he will say these things about.

On the election results itself. The only reason that the SOL even got 93 votes is because out of 12 million votes total, Maliki stole 2 million physical ballots. These ballots were intended for the Anbar region which is still mired in fighting. Maliki gave these ballots to his military with instructions to vote for him.

Each elligible voter in Iraq was supposed to get one ballot. Guys in the military got two, theirs and one from the Anbar region. Maliki bragged before the election that he was expecting large support from the Sunni's now we know why.

Maliki also had his security forces go into Diyala and go door to door confiscating ballots before the election so the SOL received 7 of the 14 MP'S from there. We know that there were many other illegal ways he tried to get votes like spending government funds attempting to buy votes or giving away government lands to get votes.

Out of the 93 MP'S the SOL got, at least IMO 25-30 or more that were acquired were fraudulent.

Maliki has his guy in charge of the Election Committee and even given the proof, he turned down any possibilty of investigation. Maliki could not even win this election even illegally.

We need look no further than his DAWA party to see that. They got almost no votes because Maliki's emphasis was on stuffing the SOL with these phony votes.

The DAWA results are more indicative of the truth. So those of you who think Iraqi's have spoken through this election and they gave a mandate to Maliki are off base. Had Maliki not cheated he would have been an overwhelming loser in these elections.

He lost anyway because the people came out at 62% to make sure of it. Had they not done that, the vote tallies would be quite different. With a low turnout and Maliki having stolen 2 million votes, he might have actually pulled of the theft of this election.

Iraqi's showing 62% of eligible voters voting, proves they want a democratic system even more so than we do in here in the US. There is a new Iraq heading forward like a steam engine.
 
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IF.....and its a BIG IF......this is true ......what does this mean for the RV.   Adam's chat on Wednesday seems to lean toward Maliki being elected for a 3rd term and that right now he is the best man for the job.  May not like it, but its what we have to deal with.  The RV can still move forward if he is in office, in his opinion.

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IF.....and its a BIG IF......this is true ......what does this mean for the RV.   Adam's chat on Wednesday seems to lean toward Maliki being elected for a 3rd term and that right now he is the best man for the job.  May not like it, but its what we have to deal with.  The RV can still move forward if he is in office, in his opinion.

 

 

I don't really care for tlar and his perspective on the election. If you remember the last election, Maliki was not even that close but still managed to manipulate it to his advantage. A real problem for unity in Parliament in Iraq. But Maliki is going to be a third term MP. The US wants it, Iran wants it and even China wants it. Lets move on to RV already.

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Really?  So you support the freedom of religion of Sharia Law of the Muslims?  Where honor killings and rape of kids is ok?  Please tell me you do not support ALL freedom of religion.

Dude Quit Trying To Hijack Threads With Ur F***ing Athiest Cult Agenda ! <_<

Ur Even Worse Than A Frickin' Brainwashed LOPster ! :o

:D:D:D

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The US does NOT want Maliki, Iran does NOT want Maliki, Maliki's own people do NOT want Maliki.  He is not good for the country. He is not good for anything except stealing every last cent he can get away with.  He is not the best choice and I really hope he can't bribe his way into it.  I don't think he'll be PM again but then again I don't really care who is PM.  I don't really care what the politics of Iraq is.  If we're all honest all any of us cares about is the RV.  I got in this to make money and so did everyone else. Once this is over I will not think twice of Iraq but I will thank our soldiers everyday for making it possible. I will pay it forward as I had always hoped I would be able to do.

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The US does NOT want Maliki, Iran does NOT want Maliki, Maliki's own people do NOT want Maliki.  He is not good for the country. He is not good for anything except stealing every last cent he can get away with.  He is not the best choice and I really hope he can't bribe his way into it.  I don't think he'll be PM again but then again I don't really care who is PM.  I don't really care what the politics of Iraq is.  If we're all honest all any of us cares about is the RV.  I got in this to make money and so did everyone else. Once this is over I will not think twice of Iraq but I will thank our soldiers everyday for making it possible. I will pay it forward as I had always hoped I would be able to do.

My thoughts exactly. This thing r/vs and I will be happy to never even hear the word Iraq again. 9 years of this ride is enough...

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under  deep advisement ,  from  boots  in the  field ,  ---{ well  o.k.  boots  right out side my door in the field next  door  ,  I  can see -um   :lol: }  I do think  that  the kurdis guy  would be the biggest move , to get  a vice chair , or even  a prime minister seat .   the kurdis region  has  made  a huge  leap  in  the past  years  , and hopefully  the powers who now  hold  all the  percentage of  parliament  will look at  it that way also ...  just  my thinking  

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Dude Quit Trying To Hijack Threads With Ur F***ing Athiest Cult Agenda ! <_<

Ur Even Worse Than A Frickin' Brainwashed LOPster ! :o

:D :D :D

 

 

So NOT believing in Islam is an Athiest agenda?  Really?  So all the Christians here BELIEVE in Islam and think it is the path to God?  I am quite surprised.

 

*** Please do not continue this line of discussion. ***

 

No Need to Respond, just drop it.

 

Thank you in advance for cooperating. :twothumbs:

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And Now Back To The Original Topic At Hand - Here Is An Updated Chat From Tlar ! ;)

 

 

 

 

Tlar "This Came As A Total Shock"!

 

Tlar      My gut feel is that Maliki convinced the old guard that he can break the coalition. They believed him out of necessity and muscled the nomination through.

If this article turns out to be true and not just press, I think the SOL just committed political suicide. All or nothing. Hopefully a very bad move on their part. Tlar

State of Law coalition nominates Maliki for a third term

 22/5/2014

 Follow-up - and babysit - announced a coalition of state law, led by Nuri al-Maliki, on Thursday, the nomination of its leader for a third term as prime minister, after several days of announcement of results of the parliamentary elections.
~~~
 
  The semi-official al-Iraqiya: "The State of Law coalition decided at a meeting of the coalition and all its components, this evening, to nominate its leader, Nouri al-Maliki for a third term as prime minister.

 The parliamentary election results announced by the Electoral Commission for elections in the 19 of May 2014, for State of Law coalition led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on first place by winning 92 seats, while dissolved blocks Sadrists came in second with 34 seats, while the coalition of citizens, led by Prime Council Ammar al-Hakim on third place with 31 seats.

Tlar      In a short time the NA will hold a secret ballot on this nomination.  The heads of the blocks will each cast a vote.  Sadr along with Hakim and Shahristani and Badr, the SOL and a number of minor blocks will vote up or down on this nomination. 

Whether Maliki will survive this vote remains to be seen.  He will lose if the heads vote as they have been talking.  The SOL has put themselves at great risk here. 

They have put their proverbial arse on the line to back this guy.  We should know shortly whether Maliki survives.  Maybe the SOL felt this is the only way it could go in order to appease Maliki. 

We will never know their reasoning for doing this in the face of the opposition.  He still has to face the full parliament if somehow he can get the NA in line. 

The opposition against a third term just held a meeting of 200 MP'S consisting of Shia, Kurds, Sunni's and Turkman.   Either way we should know shortly whether or not Maliki is out or this is to go on until June 15th for a full vote in the house..  tlar

HandOverFist       Let the "horsetrading" begin.  Picture of Hakim holding hands (claiming victory?) with Maliki.  Also, article.

http://www.niqash.org/articles/?id=3444      Why the ** are these people holding hands?

Dwsdad               Never underestimate a powerful rich man

Skylimit         It's never over till it's over with Iraq. There's so much outside money and political pressure pushing backdoor deals with the key players. tlar thanks for your great input and I hope your guess regarding the outcome holds true.

With O extending the DFI protection and the possibility of Maliki getting a third term my June window is looking iffy. IMO if this doesn't go by the end of June I'm going to hunker down for a long wait.

Aaanth      tlar,  just out of curiosity...  what do you consider a "short time?"

Danny griffin     yea i thought hakim was against maliki a trhird term.  or is the the wrong hakim. if he gets in again, these people deserve what they get.  if that happens, maybe they will rise up and drag maliki somewhere and hang him.  that may be the only way to get rid of that ass wipe piece of crap vermon.

Tlar       Hakim built the coalition to defeat a third term so we know he is the leader and would never back Maliki.  What is a short term to me concerning this situation is sometime between the  next two weeks and maybe as early as a couple of days.  It's whenever the NA votes on this nominee.

 This came as a total shock to me as most of you know.  I believed the SOL would come around to their senses as I thought the SOL would realize that Maliki can't win and they would not even pick him. 

It is possible that the heads of the SOL who have been stealing money left and right, hiding it in Jordan, have decided its an all or nothing situation and are going for broke. 

Or it is possible that Maliki lied saying he has got this or that block behind the scenes as he is known to do, and the heads of the SOL bought into to it.  We will never be privileged to what happened but as long as the coalition holds together he's toast.  Maliki is playing Russian roulette. 

His life is on the line.  So we will just have to be patient and see how this unfolds.  Will the coalition stick together?  Personally I think so.  But we will just have to wait and see how these events unfold.

 Either way nothing has changed.  Between now and June 15th we will know the truth and most likely a few days before.  Tlar

danny griffin                     tlar if maliki wins is the arbil and the federation council toast.  i thought the federal council would neuter maliki if he did get in, but maliki never honored the arbil and no doubt will payy no attention to the arbil. i thought the federation council was piece and part of the arbil.

maliki has never honored that so if he is in it seems both the arbil and federation council are no longer. what are your thoughts on that.  thanks.
Tlar     My thoughs are Maliki still does not have a chance.

Let's wait and see what happens once he is shot down.  tlar
B)    B)    B)
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So while Maliki and the boyz dance the 'doe-c-doe.... putting on a good show until he is announced as the PM for a third term... This might be a great time to recall, that any real change in the lives of these people, including practices many would consider barbaric, .... comes from the power of knowledge.... the freedom to embrace possibility through learning.....

As we wait patiently for the results to come in.... thought I would share some photos from an organization I support and have been supporting for the past 10 years. While the opportunity is presented to all children, the primary and significant focus is upon teaching young girls... and beginning education at a very young age, competing with cultural influences, in shaping their choices, (or passive acceptance), by actually giving them the knowledge which in turn creates a genuine choice...

 

Here are some of the more recent photos of the young girls .. who will hopefully one day make choices that will truly change an entire culture...

 

New School Uniforms:

khandayschooluniforms.jpg

 

 

caiheader01.jpg

 

refugees.jpg

 

torghu-balla2.jpg

 

And check out one of their new schools:

 

baharak.jpg

 

Cool Huh?...

 

I've personal reasons for supporting kids in the ME, but you can find kids all over the planet, including next door, ...and you don't have to send thousands and thousands... 20.00 can make a difference.... in their lives and yours for doing so, in making a real difference.... Not to mention:

Teach a man to fish.... and you get to reclaim all that energy you use to despise them for their choices.... 

 

 

.

Edited by Rayzur
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