Will the people vote for another Dictator or their first Savior? Will the winner take it all? (Op/Ed)

[k98nights]

Will the people vote for another Dictator or their first Savior? Will the winner take it all?

 

April 28, 2014

 

 

 

By Evin Cheikosman:

General elections in Iraq start on April 30^th, the first since the United States withdrew their troops from Iraq in 2011. A positive step but one that is crowded by the insecurities and doubts of civilians, the sectarian conflict raging throughout the country, and the debilitating state of the economy.

According to sources, no single political bloc (there are about 276 of them) is expected to win a majority of the 328 seats in the Council of Representatives.

However, current Prime Minister Nouri Maliki’s Shia-dominated State of Law alliance is widely seen as the front-runner.

Many Iraqi’s reject the mere possibility of Maliki’s State of Law alliance taking the majority seats in parliament, while others argue that he is the best option there is, and there are also the Kurds who have their own representatives, the KDP, PUK, Gorran Movement for Change, to name just a few.

Short background of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki

PM Maliki first came to power in May 2006 and he has remained in that post until today. He has been the face of post-Saddam Iraq, during a time of intense sectarian strife.  He tried hard to portray himself to the people as this nationalistic, unifying leader. However, Iraq has been anything but unifying. Many argue that PM Maliki seeks to concentrate power in the hands of a Shia-dominated central government, and is thus the root cause of such sectarian divide. Today Maliki has complete control of the roles of minster of defense, national security, interior, and he is also head of the armed forces. In addition, the judicial system is under his control as well. Question, how is this any different from when Saddam Hussein was in power? If you can recall, Saddam Hussein remained head of the intelligence and internal security agencies, bending all state institutions to his every inclination, and in effect controlling the whole of Iraq.

Many fear that, if Maliki were to remain in power, he would turn into a dictator and further destroy the country of Iraq. He would continue to marginalize and target Sunni Arabs and intensify already touchy sectarian and ethnic conflict in Baghdad and several other provinces. According to the U.N., more than 8,868 people were killed in 2013, and more than 1,400 people were killed during just the first two months of this year. Of course, there are many who think otherwise and feel that, in a time where instability is rife, the desire for stability and familiarity is strong; thus no matter his faults, some see PM Maliki as the most viable option for Iraq.

The Kurds, however, have their own hopes. Kurds are not in favor of Maliki and his authoritarian and centrist vision for Iraq, as they describe it. Iraqi Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani had recently stated that, if Maliki returns to power, hope of democracy and negotiation will be no more. He says: “Kurds may resort to a referendum to redefine the relations with Baghdad and might take other options.” This of course puts a declaration of independence for the Kurds in the air and of course this bothers Turkey. Turkey, just like the rest of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, do not want the Kurds to declare independence from Iraq; thus, if Maliki were to come to power again, well Kurds just might have to do what everyone around them has been fearing and abating for a long time.

One cannot help but argue that, no matter which representatives are elected for the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad and the premiership, nothing will change unless its political culture is completely reformed. Historically, the Iraqi government and its leaders have had the tendency of using petrol profits for their own benefit and doing anything and everything to maintain the state of chaos so as to keep the balance safe for their material pursuits; need an example? Just look at the years Saddam Hussein was in power. In a patrimonial country like Iraq, a country whose crude oil accounts for more than 90% of revenues and exports, it has the potential of being the rich country that it is. But, as is the case with most oil-rich countries, the prestigious prosper and the unfortunate suffer. Thus it is not only mine, but everyone’s hope that the best political representatives succeed in this election and seriously change Iraq’s future for the better.

 

Evin Cheikosman is a Kurd living in Los Angeles, CA, A recent graduate in International Politics from the University of California, Santa Barbara, she has studied abroad in Berlin, Germany and will soon be traveling to Zhuhai, China on a teaching assignment. Thereafter she will be pursuing a masters degree in foreign affairs. During her free time, Evin posts facts and opinions concerning Kurdish politics on her blog: Minority Politico

 

 

http://kurdistantribune.com/2014/will-people-vote-for-dictator-or-their-first-savior-will-winner-take-all/

 

[securityguy]

Well written piece. I think she is accurate in her assessment.

[jeepguy]

hey  every one ---  I listened  to the  n.p.r.   radio  they were buzzin  with  Iraq  story  today ,  { fresh air ,  with   terry gross }  then  the rest of afternoon  had  the  timein   and  out come  of elections  -----   but like evin  is saying  here  maliki is following  sadman  saddam ,   if  he wins a 3 rd term  this will return   to a dictator ship ,  this is  the only way  the  folks in Iraq  have ever  lived ,  under one  ruler ,  and maliki is taken  this one too the  ring ,  if this  duce  bag  gets it again  then  he can pass the leader ship  down to his son , who is  { or has  been }  described a  not- so - good  type of guy also !    also on the  show   they were  saying  that  the kurds  do not wish maliki  to get  another run , and  the kurdis folks  are still in the thinking  they will become independent  of  Iraq  and form  it`s  own  area  {  lord  knows  they are right in the  middle of kurdis  regions }   but  the rest of Iraq  see that  the region  the kurds  were  pushed too is the richest  in the region  for one  sect.   to be sitting on !   oil wise  that is ,   and they do not wish to part Iraq into sections !   with this said ,  who  the heck  has been causing all the up roar   with the budget  and the  h-c-l ???   sure  the kurds  wanted to have  other things put into the  budget  and  also  the oil and gas profits ........  all things  seem  to point too -------- >  ding dong  maliki     .......           n.p.r. radio   fresh air   terry gross   also    here and  now  with robin young     just look up  subject  Iraq 

[Laid Back]

Maliki is a dictador,

Dictador's don't share power.

I believe Maliki will win a third term by fraud.

Just my opinion.!

[SocalDinar]

I'm afraid he will be re elected.

Not by fraud but by fear of Sunni insurrection

Well orchestrated violence

Thanks K98

[calkid11]

Good post thank you Woody

[easyrider]

I'm afraid he will be re elected.

Not by fraud but by fear of Sunni insurrection

Well orchestrated violence

Thanks K98

he will only be re elected if the PTB make it so.  We put him in office to be a mediator to Iran and we took a huge risk in doing so.  Maliki is a wild card. Will he get re elected? hard to say but if the peoples votes dont matter then he will be the PM again.

Edited April 30, 2014 by easyrider

[NoviceInvestor]

In my opinion Maliki will be voted in again .. Because there doesn't seem to be a people popular alternative.. What ever people with "informed"opinions say about him he is what the Iraqi people know and he has survived both politically and physically for his tenure as PM.

[aaanth]

In my opinion Maliki will be voted in again .. Because there doesn't seem to be a people popular alternative.. What ever people with "informed"opinions say about him he is what the Iraqi people know and he has survived both politically and physically for his tenure as PM.

what about Hakim?  it seems like the partnership between him, sadr, barzani, nujafi is very strong and pushing for change.  there seems to ba a movement going through social media against maliki, so i guess we'll see.  it's really impossible to see what effect this will have on the CBI.  IF maliki wins they will be guarding their reserves like a hawk.  if the liberals win they are more likely to want to open up the programs for the people.  that might helps us.   honestly, nobody on this side of the world has a clue what's going on with this RV and which players are the ones that would be best for us.  as i said, it SEEMS like Hakim and company have the clerics and the politicians, (nujafi, chalabi) with them and they have momentum.  i guess it all depends on what media outlet you are believing as "non-biased" if such a thing even exists!!  ha!

[Dee-NarZ]

Thanks,

The US is worried if he gets reelected, their could be civil war. So US finds him undeserving of an unconsitutional 3rd term.

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/177015-the-new-york-times-us-officials-would-welcome-the-defeat-of-al-maliki-in-the-elections/

Hoping to see a new face as MP for the good of all.

[MrOptimistic]

propaganda and misinformation coming in left and right..

The central bankers control and manipulate the government. a plan is already in place. don't get too attached to articles. 

I wish the best for the people of Iraq. They will have their time of prosperity & wealth before the iron fist gets pounded down on them by word of the UN.

Perhaps the monetary reform has been delayed for a purpose? It's been 8 months since the inception of the 2014 budget.
Turki mentioned that the GOI has to transition/discharge the USD and switch to IQD to establish the monetary reform. Which is now possible (as of late December 2013) because the CBI has a deposit account with the BIS. This adds more depth to the 2014 budget.
CBI will also have access to foreign deposit accounts beginning May 22. Which may also be an influential factor on CBI timing.