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Questions for Adam's Update 3-19-2014


TexasGranny
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Dear Adam: Can you please keep the site online for more than 5 minutes at a time?

 

Thanks!

SHHHHH! Don't tell nobody. The poor guy just needed a vacation, and I for one, don't mind.

 

Instead use the negativity to come up with a useful question.

 

Thanks Buddy

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come and listen to my story about a man named Omar

poor goat herder barely kept his family fed.

Then one day he was shooting at some food

up through the ground came a bubblin crude

oil that is

black gold..... Texas tea.

well the first thing you know ole Omar's a trillionaire

his kin folk said Omar. move away from there

said Dubai is the place you are to be

so they loaded up the camels and moved to...... the Emirates

Emirates hills !!!! that is

swimming pools movie stars

in a country where you can't stump your toe ...dig a hole more than foot deep without " gold" squirting up out of it ground and a ocean of oil underneath that will keep it squirting out for hundreds of more years

how is it possible that a country like this with wealth like that can operate with a currency that "in theory" is worthless ??

how much longer can they keep up this charade??

Hellifiknow

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Adam, when this 'opportunity' first began, I understand that the  people who were first on board have just about doubled their investment...... However, since I got here 5 years ago, the price has been pretty constant. My question is :  Could that initial jump be THE RV ?

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Adam,

Back on December 24th, you stated that would probably be one of the last updates we would have and you stated 

your contacts thought the RV would take place in 4-7 weeks.  New articles seem to be stating the displeasure the Iraqis are having with Malaki.  Where do you think we are at this point in time?  Are we going to see this investment come to an end soon?

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What's Up Adam...This week I read this post that looks like an official Iraqi site. It's a calculation of all variables of imports, exports, commodities, taxes, tariffs...etc....this site came up with a recommended rate of the dinar for the next three years...Their calculation for the dinar to the dollar was 1.134 to 1. I'd like to get your take on this site and if you think this information is legitimate in formulating their calculation, your view on this subject matter will confirm my attitude toward the reliability of it's essence...

http://www.mop.gov.i...&pid=295&lng=en   

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Hi, I'm fairly new to this, so please bear with me if I'm asking newbie questions. It sounds like, when the RV happens, we will need to take our currency to a bank that will accept foreign currency exchange, and also that has a De La Rue machine for verifying authenticity. Do we know for certain yet which banks will be doing this? I live in a small town, so I know the banks here are not likely to do this, but I want to have a plan in place for where I will go when the RV happens. I opened a Wells Fargo account today, and while I didn't get into specifics with the associate (I didn't mention IRQ, etc.), I asked her what the procedure is if I want to exchange some foreign currency. She told me that all foreign currency is shipped off to Philadelphia (the US Treasury) for verification; that no Wells Fargo branches do this (and she didn't seem to know what a De La Rue machine is). Of course, she may be wrong about shipping all foreign currency to Philadelphia; she probably doesn't get asked that question much in this small town. So, should I start calling various banks (in larger towns / cities) and asking if they have a De La Rue machine and accept foreign currency exchange in large amounts? Is there information about participating banks already known that could narrow my search? I looked for this type of info on the VIP site, but could not find it. 

 

Also, can someone post the call-in number for the chats? I just signed up for VIP and didn't find the call-in information. 

 

Thanks so much,

Lisa

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Here is that article from the Iraqi news journal

The Exchange Rate: Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment

Posted by Iraq News Journal on Mar 15, 2014 | Leave a Comment

The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies

Below are the central controls related to the exchange rate of the foreign currency to convert the project inputs and outputs from foreign currency to its equivalent in the local currency, and that is by calculating the net discounted present value standard and the internal return on investments in economic analysis that governs investment projects that costs excess one million dinars.

Estimate the shadow price of foreign currency:

1. It is necessary to put central controls to amend the official exchange rate * to reflect the shadow price of the foreign currency, and that is considered one of the necessary requirements to implement the net discounted present value standard and the internal return rate on investment in the economic calculation stated in the instructions, paragraph nine.

The central controls for adjusting market prices distinguished a group of outputs and inputs traded internationally, where the projects production or usage of them is reflected on the abundance of foreign currency in the economy and thus project outputs or inputs used of such are considered purely foreign currency outputs or inputs.

* What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar.

In particular the following outputs and inputs of foreign currency were distinguished:

•Export-outputs.

•Outputs marketed locally that substitute imports.

•Imported inputs.

•Inputs produced locally that usually go to exports.

•Foreign labor.

According to the pricing rules the value of the output and input (traded) is calculated using export prices (FOB) and import prices (CIF), according to what is listed in the pricing rules.

In other words the pricing rules calculate what the project produces from foreign currency (quantity of exports multiplied by the export price (FOB) in foreign currency or the quantity of substitute imports multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency, as well as what the project uses from foreign currency and imported inputs multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency …. etc.).

In a later step, project outputs and inputs must be converted from the foreign currency to its equivalent in local currency (dinars) by using a specific exchange rate for the foreign currency.

2. Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment planning. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports… etc.

The justifications to call for the use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official exchange rate are:

•The use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official rate is the appropriate action at the investment planning level to translate the country’s economic strategy aiming at stimulating central investments in the sectors that encourage the development of non-oil exports, as well as sectors that encourage the expansion of domestic production base in order to reduce imports and compensate it with local commodities. This helps to reduce reliance on foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports and increases the share of non-oil sectors in the local production.

•The application of the amended exchange rate on project imported inputs will assist in directing investments away from aggregated sectors dependent on imported inputs and the preference of those sectors that rely on locally produced inputs.

•The use of the amended exchange rate helps to correct the balance in favor of the traded goods sectors compared to non-traded goods.

•The real exchange rate has declined rapidly since the early seventies, through rapid rise of the level of prices and local costs which led by the steadiness of the official exchange rate to change in prices and actual local rate costs that gave an advantage for imported goods at the expense of locally produced goods, meaning that it led to deterioration of the competitiveness of alternative replacement goods and export commodities.

•This action shows that the official exchange rate overestimates the value of the dinar, compared to the foreign currency and from the promoting goods substituting imports and export commodities point of view of.

And in support to this view is the state’s utilization and in a broad approach to the customs and quantitative protection policies especially for consumer goods, as well as export subsidies that exports have through an amended export exchange rate.

3. Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.

Like the newbie said, based on this article from The Iraqi News, what do you think?

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What are your thoughts on: if Maliki gets re-elected? Will there be an RV? What about if Kurdistan breaks away from Iraq? They can maintain on their own very easily. It would hurt Iraq if they break away and Kurdistan could print their own currency. If they do break away from Iraq, what are your thoughts on whether an RV could happen. I know that I am looking at Maybe's but one needs to make plans and be prepared for what comes down the road. I am not trying to be pessimistic. 

 

I have been in this for 4 years, I have seen budgets come and go, I have seen so many times that many people thought this would happen, and the RV has always evaded us. 

 

Thanks

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Comparitively speaking there has been a lull of sorts in decent articles on the various websites, even including your #1 site. Could it be? You know. Stuff happening re: the RV? Just grabbing at straws here. So bored I have been checking some rumor section articles, those gurus in there can be brutal in defense of their lack luster articles.

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