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69th Session of the UNCC Governing Council


captmed
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I have always been an RV guy ... mainly because of the following. When someone tells us that the IQD "sounds too good to be true" we always point them at Kuwait. But that's the last time we want to discuss Kuwait. However, to me, it's our template of sorts (yes, I know about Germany, etc. etc). And that is why RV makes sense to me. However, through posts on DV and elsewhere, I've heard 3 separate arguements for RI ... one mathematical, one from an economics standpoint (also mathematical), and one (almost) philosophical.

A week or so ago a post was made (on the NEWS side of DV) disclosing that Iraq's oil money, in it's entirety, was not being utilized for the good of Iraq but was being deposited in a bank in the US (New York I believe) at the rate of $1B - $6B per month and if you did the math on the time frame it was about 72 months worth which made their deposit (speculatively) a minimum of $72B. We also noted that the pipeline is on and pumping NOW and that they had increased barrel output etc. so we believed that it might even be higher than the $6B/month that was disclosed.

We went on to show, with the aforementioned math, how it WAS possible to RI ... supporting one of the above arguements ... speculative, mind you, but possible. We based our suppositions on the minimum of $72B. The problem was that we don't actually know how much is in that fund ... UNTIL NOW!

CAPTMED posted an article in NEWS today entitled "69th Session of UNCC Governing Council" with a link: http://www.uncc.ch/p...l/69%20open.pdf

The UNCC fields claims against those in Chapt 7. In this article it discusses how many claims were filed by individuals and countries against Iraq and what damages were actual (vs claimed) as determined by the UNCC. It tells what the total bill is, how much has been paid, and how it is being paid. Now here is where it gets interesting. On page two of the document it discloses that $28.9B has been paid and that it is coming from the oil revenues at a prescribed rate of 5% of the oil revenues. With a little math utilizing ratios we can calculate that if $28.9B is 5% then there must be a 100% which is the figure that we were needing in the aforementioned discussion and that is HOW MUCH IS IN THE FUND IN NY?

And it is (mathematically) $578B

Folks, I'm not telling you that they are going to RI ... I'm telling you that since 90% of the IQD sold belongs to countries (calculated by a retired State Dept Economist and posted on the NEWS site) that by IMF law they are required to hold a percentage of their standard trade with Iraq (meaning that it won't be cashed in all at once, but utilized for trade, and still held as per the IMF requirement) and that only 10% is held by folks like us who probably would cash in on RI ... together with the tons of gold that will be released upon lifting of Chapt 7 ... RI is actually feasible.

Don't get me wrong I'm still an RV guy. Statistics tell me that 93% of the RV possibilities hit between $.86 and $2.10. That is simply too high to ignore. 60% of that at $.86 to $1.20. Another 21% between $1.21 and $1.86. and the last 12% between $1.87 and $2.10. Remember this though, as I always tell my IQD group that “that and $1.79 will get you a cup of coffee at 7/11!” IT”S JUST MY OPINION BASED ON NUMBERS (but it is pretty well sorted out).

My own personal favorite is whatever the EURO is trading for on the day it RV’s.

Last Novemeber when we got all excited …you remember, when we saw Baghdad bank rates set IQD at $1.49 for days during business hours. Guess what? That was the exact exchange rate of the USD vs EUR for those days! Today it is trading at $1.33. So, if it RV’d tomorrow my personal expectations would be $1.33. This would peg it superior to the dollar and even with the Euro (which many expect to be named the world’s next reserve currency if we don’t get our financial act together and quit printing money as per our new leadership … ahhhhh, I digress … and the European community gets Portugal, Greece and Spain straightened out or ousted). It would be a brilliant strategy placing it amidst the global currencies … above the Aussie’s and the Kiwis (which in my opinion it should be with it’s oil and agricultural prospects) … and well below the British Pound. It’s kind of a Goldilocks position. Not too high and not too low … just right.

Please don’t pretend that I’m foolish enough to wish for an RV over an RI. And please don’t shoot the messenger. I was just trying to tie two posts together and put some sense to all of this.

By the way many thanks to CAPTMED for his post to work off of.

Peace

Doc31

PS if you don’t agree … no need to bash … I realize it’s going to come out at what it’s going to come out at … and I will figure a way to ride it up higher still … just kicking around some numbers here

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?#ixzz0mJWBjpIy

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I have always been an RV guy ... mainly because of the following. When someone tells us that the IQD "sounds too good to be true" we always point them at Kuwait. But that's the last time we want to discuss Kuwait. However, to me, it's our template of sorts (yes, I know about Germany, etc. etc). And that is why RV makes sense to me. However, through posts on DV and elsewhere, I've heard 3 separate arguements for RI ... one mathematical, one from an economics standpoint (also mathematical), and one (almost) philosophical.

A week or so ago a post was made (on the NEWS side of DV) disclosing that Iraq's oil money, in it's entirety, was not being utilized for the good of Iraq but was being deposited in a bank in the US (New York I believe) at the rate of $1B - $6B per month and if you did the math on the time frame it was about 72 months worth which made their deposit (speculatively) a minimum of $72B. We also noted that the pipeline is on and pumping NOW and that they had increased barrel output etc. so we believed that it might even be higher than the $6B/month that was disclosed.

We went on to show, with the aforementioned math, how it WAS possible to RI ... supporting one of the above arguements ... speculative, mind you, but possible. We based our suppositions on the minimum of $72B. The problem was that we don't actually know how much is in that fund ... UNTIL NOW!

CAPTMED posted an article in NEWS today entitled "69th Session of UNCC Governing Council" with a link: http://www.uncc.ch/p...l/69%20open.pdf

The UNCC fields claims against those in Chapt 7. In this article it discusses how many claims were filed by individuals and countries against Iraq and what damages were actual (vs claimed) as determined by the UNCC. It tells what the total bill is, how much has been paid, and how it is being paid. Now here is where it gets interesting. On page two of the document it discloses that $28.9B has been paid and that it is coming from the oil revenues at a prescribed rate of 5% of the oil revenues. With a little math utilizing ratios we can calculate that if $28.9B is 5% then there must be a 100% which is the figure that we were needing in the aforementioned discussion and that is HOW MUCH IS IN THE FUND IN NY?

And it is (mathematically) $578B

Folks, I'm not telling you that they are going to RI ... I'm telling you that since 90% of the IQD sold belongs to countries (calculated by a retired State Dept Economist and posted on the NEWS site) that by IMF law they are required to hold a percentage of their standard trade with Iraq (meaning that it won't be cashed in all at once, but utilized for trade, and still held as per the IMF requirement) and that only 10% is held by folks like us who probably would cash in on RI ... together with the tons of gold that will be released upon lifting of Chapt 7 ... RI is actually feasible.

Don't get me wrong I'm still an RV guy. Statistics tell me that 93% of the RV possibilities hit between $.86 and $2.10. That is simply too high to ignore. 60% of that at $.86 to $1.20. Another 21% between $1.21 and $1.86. and the last 12% between $1.87 and $2.10. Remember this though, as I always tell my IQD group that “that and $1.79 will get you a cup of coffee at 7/11!” IT”S JUST MY OPINION BASED ON NUMBERS (but it is pretty well sorted out).

My own personal favorite is whatever the EURO is trading for on the day it RV’s.

Last Novemeber when we got all excited …you remember, when we saw Baghdad bank rates set IQD at $1.49 for days during business hours. Guess what? That was the exact exchange rate of the USD vs EUR for those days! Today it is trading at $1.33. So, if it RV’d tomorrow my personal expectations would be $1.33. This would peg it superior to the dollar and even with the Euro (which many expect to be named the world’s next reserve currency if we don’t get our financial act together and quit printing money as per our new leadership … ahhhhh, I digress … and the European community gets Portugal, Greece and Spain straightened out or ousted). It would be a brilliant strategy placing it amidst the global currencies … above the Aussie’s and the Kiwis (which in my opinion it should be with it’s oil and agricultural prospects) … and well below the British Pound. It’s kind of a Goldilocks position. Not too high and not too low … just right.

Please don’t pretend that I’m foolish enough to wish for an RV over an RI. And please don’t shoot the messenger. I was just trying to tie two posts together and put some sense to all of this.

By the way many thanks to CAPTMED for his post to work off of.

Peace

Doc31

PS if you don’t agree … no need to bash … I realize it’s going to come out at what it’s going to come out at … and I will figure a way to ride it up higher still … just kicking around some numbers here

Great job doc31. This fund in NY, is the DFI account. It is being held at the federal reserve. The last known amounts in the fund come from 2008. It was nearly 200 billion then. The oil revenues are what makes this account grow. Since 2008 the price for a barrel of oil has increased substantially. This is why I believe your estimate of current reserves is close to the actual. Don't forget that the CBI also has nearly 50 billion dollars of their own currency reserves. All this money will be returned to the CBI no later than the end of this year. Now, why would CBI be establishing these gigantic reserves? Would it be so they can keep the dinar at nearly worthless values?

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?#ixzz0mJWBjpIy

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