WHY IT CAN HAPPEN - Response to Baghdad Invest

[mrsonnyr]

THANK YOU Baghdad Invest for your candid response!  It IS very sad to hear of the tragic events that are continuing to occur with the citizens of Iraq.  As you know, in the U.S. we DO see and hear about the atrocities.  That's why I said that I truly believe if/when this RV does occur, that the citizens WILL benefit as well!  

Follow my reasoning...

 

IMHO, I happen to believe this IS part of the "big picture" even for the "leaders" in Iraq.  Other than religious radicals, the "elite" are finally figuring out that thousands of years of fighting does no one any good, especially if more than one person (dictator) is now sharing the leadership and wealth.  They AND the country will be better off if they STOP the fighting.  

 

My guess is this.   No different than our US industrial revolution, the "elite" and/or politicians will benefit first through pure "thuggery" and corruption.  They (Maliki and company) are going to take all they can get before they HAVE to finally comply with some "structure of rules" from outside pressure (political, commercial, or civil unrest).  Because of the VAST amount of natural resources that Iraq has (although they can't always get to them without outside help), those rules (I'll call them "rules of civil order") will THEN grow the "financial pie" MUCH bigger, giving the "elite" a lot more chunk of the pie!       

 

That said,  I believe the everyday citizen WILL eventually benefit.   In order for the "elite" to continue to thrive from "privilege" or "who you know" they've got to have business growth, otherwise there's no money to "scrape off the top"/steal...right?   To do this, they've got to keep SOME measure of normalcy, peace, and civil order with the general population.  

 

Same thing they had to do in our early American history.  If there was no order, they weren't able to control the people and take their $$$ "piece of the pie'" from growing businesses.  It's a game of high stakes "at the top".  Even the "top" doesn't function without bringing in other high stakes players, even IF they tend to be corrupt at some level.

 

So...I believe the "elite" and Maliki has figured out he's ridden the train as far as he can go, without finally having to give something back.  Why?  He knows he stands NO chance of a 3rd term UNLESS he can implement IMMEDIATE RELIEF for the citizens and small business owners so he can become "their hero" before the 2014 elections.   I could be wrong, but what if???

 

I believe they will continue to work on trying to rein in common street thugs and radical extremists so they can attract foreign investment, which won't happen easily without some effective "law and order" and national civility.  They will then be able to take the $$$ "cream off the top"  as Iraq enters the global economy/market at even greater levels and as MORE foreign investors DO come in for the potentially high ROI (return on investment) compared to other opportunities on the planet.  As Iraq is a virtually untapped well of resources, modern businesses will WELCOME the opportunity to be a part of the "growing last frontier" (just like the "gold rush" and industrial revolution in the US).   

 

Now most of the average citizens will have the jobs and small businesses they need so badly and then the government/"elite" will begin to TAX the citizens (and they'll put up with it) because after all, they'll finally have their daily needs met; houses, cars, etc...and it's certainly better than it was!  The perpetual cycle begins.

 

Yes, the "elite" may benefit the most (when don't they?) but the average Iraqi citizen's life SHOULD improve as well.   

 

We've all known that Iraq entering the GLOBAL economy is the key!   And THAT can't happen unless the "value" of their currency is set in relation to the VALUE of the resources and general GDP of the country!  The U.S. and others have been screaming at China for intentionally holding down their currency value for years, causing an unfair economic advantage of trade!   

 

While I DON'T buy into the constant barrage of daily hype,  I do believe it HAS to go up!

  

NO MORE  holding down an ARTIFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE!   That's it.  

 

There's my opinion of "why it can!"

 

[sandfly]

THANKS