SWFloridaGuy Thoughts On Currency Appreciations - 06/01/2013

[easyrider]

I note you did not actually comment on the example that I gave (that I called nonsense) but just bashed me instead.  Of course I do not have all the answers, nor am any sort of genius.  I'm just an engineer and hence pretty analytical.  Really the whole point of the issues I have raised is ANYONE can see the flaws, but most seem not to want to look.  All this "fall at your feet and bow.." that's just your view, it isn't anything about me.  

 

Knowingly posting false or misleading statements in order to promote the supposed likelihood of a huge increase in the dinar seems like an activity that we should strive to stop.  People should invest, or not based on good data and reasoning, not false claims, false history, misleading claims and so on.  Don't you agree with that?

Understood, thank you for the warning (again).  No more comments on posters for me, only on the contents of what they post.

Dv member Id's:: jg167 -> engineer1138 -> xyzzy -> -> joefriday -> makecents now your under Skeptic lol nice try John.  why do you insist coming back under other names after being banned? to prove what?

Edited June 5, 2013 by easyrider

[adlon]

Enough already.  Time to move on.

[dontlop]

Dv member Id's:: jg167 -> engineer1138 -> xyzzy -> -> joefriday -> makecents now your under Skeptic lol nice try John.  why do you insist coming back under other names after being banned? to prove what?

amen

just coment on the topic.. not on peoples opinions ..quit calling people out for their opinion... like its a day job ..read  .. learn .. express your input on the topic .. not the peoples opinions . just say whay you think ..not critisize others opinons

arguing with everyone teachs nothing

[Darin]

I think we need to keep an open mind on how the value can change.

 

We always look at something from the point of view of the dollar.

Lets say that I used the INR (Iranian Rupee) to convert to IQD when the exchange rate was around 20:1. I sat and held the currency and I see that the exchange rate has increased to 30:1. When I exchange my dinars back for rupees, I will receive more rupees. In this particular pairing, the dinar appreciated in the pairing of the rupee. (i.e., Rupee lost value, Dinar gained value).

 

So to say that the dinar is unable to appreciate in value is a rather foolish comment.

 

It has the ability to gain or lose value in a pair of another currency. This particular argument is slightly a moot point, as it is not like we all used Rupees to buy Dinars. However, if we had and the exchange rate was once 20:1 and became 30:1, we would see profits.

 

The actual reality is that the INR has actually strengthened against the IQD over the recent years. But that isn't to say that things couldn't easily change down the road.

[dontlop]

i think the exchange regime  can and will change to bring a higher value of the dinar ..id like to see a certain percentage of oil monetized to  service a higher valued dinar .. whether it be through selling oil bonds or just using the oil in the ground  as collateral to finance a higher valued dinar over 50 years,,or 100 years .. of servicing  that debt . and using that money to build the private sector of iraq  to increase its gdp per capita .

 

 

 

 

to me there are many different options // they ae not locked into this exchange regime ..things can change ..if i were to think the way things are right now will always be for eternity  the same way ,., then ...no .. nothing would change ..i see changes coming for iraq ,.,,

[skeptic1138]

i think the exchange regime  can and will change to bring a higher value of the dinar ..id like to see a certain percentage of oil monetized to  service a higher valued dinar .. whether it be through selling oil bonds or just using the oil in the ground  as collateral to finance a higher valued dinar over 50 years,,or 100 years .. of servicing  that debt . and using that money to build the private sector of iraq  to increase its gdp per capita .

 

The vehicle that exists for such things are oil futures.  The problem is that the further out into the future a contract goes the lower the price you can get due to risk. The vast majority are within 6 months with only a couple outlier contracts out a year. Iraq being the seller adds more risk.  Dumping a gigantic amount of futures on the market due to oversupply lowers the price still more.  Suppose they want to RV to a dime, they would need 6.5T USD to cover M1.  Lets say that over the long term oil production will be 300B a year (3x what it is now).  So that is about 20 years worth. But due to the factors I stated above they might have to sell 40 years worth of oil to raise that much, if they even could get that many buyers which I think is extremely doubtful.

 

But lets suppose they do it.  Would an RV be the best use of those funds?  I'd say clearly no.  They could loan it back out, and at even 3% that's $180B USD a year.  They aren't going to be getting any oil income for 40 years so they will need to mange that money very wisely.  Loaning out the excess and paying it out to be gone in 40 years they could give every person in Iraq a modest income (but a lot more than they get now), plus free medical care and education (like Qatar does).  Why screw around with an RV and all its inherent problems?  An RV is the last thing they would want to do, and I don't think there is any chance of selling $6T worth of Iraq oil futures in the first place.

 

As for a changing exchange rate regime, sure.  They could make small changes as invariably pegged currencies do.  Whether you call that crawling or a changing peg or whatever doesn't really matter.  They could go off the peg and float, but that then subjects them to the whims of the market and with nothing to sell in IQD demand will likely be very small allowing large (i.e. a few percentage points) fluctuation which would be bad. The CBI's goal is rate stability and low inflation.  I don't see how a float helps them with that.

[caz1104]

I note you did not actually comment on the example that I gave (that I called nonsense) but just bashed me instead.  Of course I do not have all the answers, nor am any sort of genius.  I'm just an engineer and hence pretty analytical.  Really the whole point of the issues I have raised is ANYONE can see the flaws, but most seem not to want to look.  All this "fall at your feet and bow.." that's just your view, it isn't anything about me.  

 

Knowingly posting false or misleading statements in order to promote the supposed likelihood of a huge increase in the dinar seems like an activity that we should strive to stop.  People should invest, or not based on good data and reasoning, not false claims, false history, misleading claims and so on.  Don't you agree with that?

Understood, thank you for the warning (again).  No more comments on posters for me, only on the contents of what they post.

I understand your point. Mine was and still is how do you know & claim that SWFG "knowinly" posted false or misleading statements?  For you use this as an example of a you know what and you called him such. I used assumptions to foster an opinion on you................fair...........no. Could the same not be true in your case? I would love to see where we can have civil discussions without bringing up the p........... word & the Personal attacks on both sides are imo what lesson the quality of this site and has led to many folks leaving. The Net allows folks to hide behind a keyboard and imo state things they wouldn't say face to face (false bravado). As I stated before your intelligence is evident & your informational posts are welcome for those wishing education - peace

[dontlop]

The vehicle that exists for such things are oil futures.  The problem is that the further out into the future a contract goes the lower the price you can get due to risk. The vast majority are within 6 months with only a couple outlier contracts out a year. Iraq being the seller adds more risk.  Dumping a gigantic amount of futures on the market due to oversupply lowers the price still more.  Suppose they want to RV to a dime, they would need 6.5T USD to cover M1.  Lets say that over the long term oil production will be 300B a year (3x what it is now).  So that is about 20 years worth. But due to the factors I stated above they might have to sell 40 years worth of oil to raise that much, if they even could get that many buyers which I think is extremely doubtful.

 

But lets suppose they do it.  Would an RV be the best use of those funds?  I'd say clearly no.  They could loan it back out, and at even 3% that's $180B USD a year.  They aren't going to be getting any oil income for 40 years so they will need to mange that money very wisely.  Loaning out the excess and paying it out to be gone in 40 years they could give every person in Iraq a modest income (but a lot more than they get now), plus free medical care and education (like Qatar does).  Why screw around with an RV and all its inherent problems?  An RV is the last thing they would want to do, and I don't think there is any chance of selling $6T worth of Iraq oil futures in the first place.

 

As for a changing exchange rate regime, sure.  They could make small changes as invariably pegged currencies do.  Whether you call that crawling or a changing peg or whatever doesn't really matter.  They could go off the peg and float, but that then subjects them to the whims of the market and with nothing to sell in IQD demand will likely be very small allowing large (i.e. a few percentage points) fluctuation which would be bad. The CBI's goal is rate stability and low inflation.  I don't see how a float helps them with that.

stick around you might learn something it seems your starting to catch on

you almost got it ..but not quite

The vehicle that exists for such things are oil futures.

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/150202-swfloridaguy-thoughts-on-currency-appreciations-06012013/page-6#ixzz2VLLVt6Tg

 

 

 what a joke

[skeptic1138]

I understand your point. Mine was and still is how do you know & claim that SWFG "knowinly" posted false or misleading statements?  For you use this as an example of a you know what and you called him such. I used assumptions to foster an opinion on you................fair...........no. Could the same not be true in your case? I would love to see where we can have civil discussions without bringing up the p........... word & the Personal attacks on both sides are imo what lesson the quality of this site and has led to many folks leaving. The Net allows folks to hide behind a keyboard and imo state things they wouldn't say face to face (false bravado). As I stated before your intelligence is evident & your informational posts are welcome for those wishing education - peace

The items I pointed out are easily understood and very commonly used by those wishing to promote an RV without regard to the truth of what they use for such promotion.  That is easy to see with just a few minutes research and analysis and would be well known by anyone who has spent serious time over the past years doing such research.  No one has even attempted to refute the false and misleading nature of the points I raised, so in fact it looks like everyone here does know that they are false.

[caz1104]

Still not proof of "knowinly" by any stretch. Could you have stated he was incorrect in his opinion.............quite easily. His opinion of what he researched is what he stated...........nothing more. I think your making more out of this than needs to be. There are quite a few who enjoy reading his posts...............does that mean they accept all that he states as facts.........doubtful, but that's for each to decide - peace

[umbertino]

Quote

Lets say that I used the INR (Iranian Rupee)

End Quote

 You mean the Iranian Rial.  The Rupee is the Indian currency.

Edited June 5, 2013 by umbertino

[caz1104]

"Ruppee" isn't that a date drug? - lol JK

Edited June 5, 2013 by caz1104

[Darin]

Quote

Lets say that I used the INR (Iranian Rupee)

End Quote

 You mean the Iranian Rial.  The Rupee is the Indian currency.

Correct - My failure - I got the two mixed up when I was reviewing their exchange rate history

So w/o verifying the information I posted, I put the wrong information. It happens..

[zigmeister]

Correct - My failure - I got the two mixed up when I was reviewing their exchange rate history

So w/o verifying the information I posted, I put the wrong information. It happens..

Uh oh Darin.....you might be called a pumper.

[caz1104]

If the definition fits you must acquit............or something like that-lol

[hame55]

None of this is substantiated in any way.  Mendez is a Dinar dealer, we're taking his word for it as authoritative?  Please.  The article you posted from a minerals conference doesn't mention any of this, but talks about gold in turkey (so could relate to Iraq) and sulphor, and phosphorus etc.  Again as I said, might there be gold in Iraq?  Sure.  It might well be similar to Turkey, could be more, could be less.  But is it remotely possible that there is so much as to equal the entire rest of the world?  No way.  And no matter what it will take a long time to develop large scale mining operations.  As you said, 1000 tons of earth with a high gold concentration could bring a few million dollars, a long long way from the $150B needed to make oil the #2 revenue source for Iraq.

Hello Dinark....where's the lobsta tank? Throw him in!

 

The vehicle that exists for such things are oil futures.  The problem is that the further out into the future a contract goes the lower the price you can get due to risk. The vast majority are within 6 months with only a couple outlier contracts out a year. Iraq being the seller adds more risk.  Dumping a gigantic amount of futures on the market due to oversupply lowers the price still more.  Suppose they want to RV to a dime, they would need 6.5T USD to cover M1.  Lets say that over the long term oil production will be 300B a year (3x what it is now).  So that is about 20 years worth. But due to the factors I stated above they might have to sell 40 years worth of oil to raise that much, if they even could get that many buyers which I think is extremely doubtful.

 

But lets suppose they do it.  Would an RV be the best use of those funds?  I'd say clearly no.  They could loan it back out, and at even 3% that's $180B USD a year.  They aren't going to be getting any oil income for 40 years so they will need to mange that money very wisely.  Loaning out the excess and paying it out to be gone in 40 years they could give every person in Iraq a modest income (but a lot more than they get now), plus free medical care and education (like Qatar does).  Why screw around with an RV and all its inherent problems?  An RV is the last thing they would want to do, and I don't think there is any chance of selling $6T worth of Iraq oil futures in the first place.

 

As for a changing exchange rate regime, sure.  They could make small changes as invariably pegged currencies do.  Whether you call that crawling or a changing peg or whatever doesn't really matter.  They could go off the peg and float, but that then subjects them to the whims of the market and with nothing to sell in IQD demand will likely be very small allowing large (i.e. a few percentage points) fluctuation which would be bad. The CBI's goal is rate stability and low inflation.  I don't see how a float helps them with that.

Good points. Yet all made under the assumption Iraq is in total control of its government. That you DO NOT know.

And neither do I, for sure. 

 

But I do know Iraq is a CLIENT state of Washington. Some of you lobsters just don't get this reality. Do you really think the PTB are going to let a chance to make billions on a new ME currency pass by?

Edited June 5, 2013 by hame55

[rulesforrebels]

Treat this as a reply to SWFG not ronscapa.  I'm only going go comment on a few points so I won't repost the whole thing

Because they have invested in various aspects of the growing Iraqi economy, not the Dinar. If you want to make money in Iraq investing in companies is where you have to be. That is very risky of course so using something like a mutual fund focused on Iraq might be something to look into. This is a common theme for gurus, to show positive things in the Iraqi economy, and than conclude that this indicates the dinar is a good investment. Its false logic.

 

Oh come on. This again? It makes zero sense to compare different exchange rates at different times without also including the money supply at those times. A single resource based economy usually has (very roughly speaking) an M2 value that is in the neighborhood of 60% of GDP. So with a $3 dinar and a $8B GDP that would point to a money supply of around 1.5B dinar. Now there are 75T. Pump, pump, pump.

 

Ok, now this has clearly crossed into guru/pumper territory. For Iraq's growing oil exports to become second to gold exports, they would have to be on their way to exporting something like $150B worth of gold. The entire planet produces at most (i.e. the max years) 2,500 metric tons of gold (scroll down a little to the green yearly production graph). So 2,500 metric tons * 35,274oz/metric ton * $1,500 per oz = $132B for the value of global annual gold output. SWFG is claiming that Iraq will surpass this on its own. Geologically it is unlikely in the extreme that half of the world supply (just to match it) would be in 0.3% of the land area while the other half is distributed all over the globe. If gold is so common in this one place than why has it not been found before since people have been living in this are for perhaps 10,000 years?  Further even if there were significant gold finds in Iraq, a large gold mine is a huge operation that takes a long time to develop to the point of producing anything.

This claim of vast gold finds is 100% bogus yet is passed around the dinar world as a fact (as SWFG has done here). SWFG lists many prestigious publications following his opinion, but does not tell us what information, if any, came from them.  Frankly much of this post feels like it was pasted from somewhere else and is rather hard to make sense of if you think about it, but it sounds authoritative (often a bad sign).

What conclusion is there from these points other than that SWFG's intention is to pump us up? He makes well informed sounding posts, then slips in obviously false and misleading statements. There was another thread a day or two ago about SWFG being called out as a pumper on another site and him defending and so on (I didn't follow it), but I regret to say that there looks to be justification for such claims, and the evidence is right here.  I know that will upset some folks and that is not my intent, but the evidence says what it says.

My thoughts exactly, I have a few pieces of "intel" of my own....

 

-It's recently been discovered that Iraq has more precious metals than the entire world put together. These metals include platinum, palladium, gold and silver.s

 

- Iraqi's are proud people and proud people don't like their currencies at low values. It's inevidable that overnight they will revalue their currency overnight to pre desert storm levels because they are proud.

 

- Iraq's low labor costs are going to be a hub for manufacturing in the future. Iraq is going to be the next china. To prepare for that the currency has to reach levels which make it more easily tradeable.

 

- it's inevidable Iraq's currency will revalue within the next 48 hours.

 

 

Central Bank Of Iraq

 

CNN

 

International Monetary Fund

EPA

 

Bloomberg

 

Forbes

 

Money Magazine

 

 

just listing random facts and putting credible sources below them but not providing any links nor providing any resources of where you found what information does not convince me.

[fib1618]

My thoughts exactly, I have a few pieces of "intel" of my own....

-It's recently been discovered that Iraq has more precious metals than the entire world put together. These metals include platinum, palladium, gold and silver.s

- Iraqi's are proud people and proud people don't like their currencies at low values. It's inevidable that overnight they will revalue their currency overnight to pre desert storm levels because they are proud.

- Iraq's low labor costs are going to be a hub for manufacturing in the future. Iraq is going to be the next china. To prepare for that the currency has to reach levels which make it more easily tradeable.

- it's inevidable Iraq's currency will revalue within the next 48 hours.

Central Bank Of Iraq

CNN

International Monetary Fund

EPA

Bloomberg

Forbes

Money Magazine

just listing random facts and putting credible sources below them but not providing any links nor providing any resources of where you found what information does not convince me.

Within the next 48 hours, eh?

Wanna bet?

[caz1104]

Me thinks he's funning-peace

[Francie26]

NO. that is not what I claimed.  I am not talking about opinions but what you state as facts as well as clearly misleading statements.  You don't credit others for them, nor say anything like "I can't vouch for this but am just passing it on" so I assume at the very least you are endorsing them.  Their origin is not what is in dispute, it is the accuracy of these statements.

 

To summarize, yet again:

* You claim (pass along the claim) that gold exports will soon eclipse Iraq's oil exports and this is clearly IMPOSSIBLE.   You didn't credit any source for this, and if you claim that your expertise is in analysis of economic issues, it took me maybe 5 minutes to totally discredit this idea, yet you pass it along without any analysis at all it seems.

* You go on and on about economic growth, then claim that this will lead to a higher exchange rate.  Clearly a misleading statement as there is no evidence for this and in fact evidence to the contrary.

* You point out the high exchange rate in the 70s with a small GDP and compare that with Iraq's much larger GDP today but fail to even mention that the money supply today is at least 3,000 times larger than back then, maybe 15,000 time larger.

 

In response you post about the CBI adding gold to its reserves.  This sort of attempt at misdirection is just what I would expect from a pumper.

First there is no source given for these statements.  But, lets assume Iraq could someday match Turkey's 650,000 oz/year production. At $1,500 USD per oz that is just under $1B USD.  Is that good for Iraq?  Sure!  But its less than 1% of oil exports.  There is not the slightest chance of gold exports eclipsing oil exports.

I like SWFloridaGuy, and I like reading his posts.  He has been here long enough to be one of us. We don't even know you. So maybe you should go a little slower on criticizing someone who is a long-time, highly valued member here. 

[umbertino]

Correct - My failure - I got the two mixed up when I was reviewing their exchange rate history

So w/o verifying the information I posted, I put the wrong information. It happens..

No Problem... I do appreciate your vast knowledge on a lot of topics here. Thanks.

Uh oh Darin.....you might be called a pumper.

We both know he isn't one.

Edited June 5, 2013 by umbertino

[sxsess]

The Iraqi economy is on the mend, imo. I'm not happy with the GOI at present. I never will be due to the Muslim male dominated cesspool in Iraq, Iran and Syria. Personally, I don't care about Iraq and it's inhabitants. I'm way over the culture in the ME.

 

Iraq will never compare the Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi and others. I would like to make a few bucks off this investment, in the interim I will continue to work my a$$ off without worry of the outcome of IQD. Currency speculation is not an investment to hang your hat on.

Great post skitealwedrop. I could not agree more. Islam in general is a cesspool that needs to be dealt with harshly by the western world.

[skeptic1138]

Good points. Yet all made under the assumption Iraq is in total control of its government. That you DO NOT know.

And neither do I, for sure. 

 

But I do know Iraq is a CLIENT state of Washington. Some of you lobsters just don't get this reality. Do you really think the PTB are going to let a chance to make billions on a new ME currency pass by?

So you don't know for sure if Iraq is in control of its own government, but you are sure they are a client state of the US, which means they are not in control, doesn't it?

 

What sort of control would that be?  We aren't funding them any more, we don't have many armed forces there.  I think the GOI has a hard enough time controlling itself, how would the US control them?

 

The PTB (if there were such a group) could only make money if an RV was possible, which it isn't, so they can't.  Clearly the wealthiest institutions in the world use their wealth to lobby governments to pass laws and regulations and tax codes and make exceptions and so on that favor them.  But as the "PTB" being some small organized group that is calling up heads of state and telling them what to do, and owns all the central banks, I just don't buy it.  The evidence doesn't support it, and its not needed to produce the results we see.

I like SWFloridaGuy, and I like reading his posts.  He has been here long enough to be one of us. We don't even know you. So maybe you should go a little slower on criticizing someone who is a long-time, highly valued member here. 

Nothing I said prevents you from liking him or his posts.  Anyone who loves sushi can't be all bad.  But what has that got to do with the contents of his posts.  I'm not asking anyone to assume what I say makes sense because you trust me, but because what I say is clearly evident.  I'm not giving an opinion, I'm pointing out factual errors and misleading statements.  As for going slower, I'm not going to characterize individuals at all anymore as that is against board policy according to the mods, so I'll only point out problems in the content.

[dontlop]

 

The PTB (if there were such a group) could only make money if an RV was possible, which it isn't, so they can't.

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/150202-swfloridaguy-thoughts-on-currency-appreciations-06012013/page-7#ixzz2VOSVxnPM

 

 

[dontlop]

I'm not giving an opinion, I'm pointing out factual errors and misleading statements

Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/150202-swfloridaguy-thoughts-on-currency-appreciations-06012013/page-7#ixzz2VOaUohje

 

 

Edited June 6, 2013 by dontlop