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Kaperoni - Confirmation They Are "Removing The Notes" !


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CNN. Broadcasting While Using My Steel Toed Clown Shoes To Kick, Boot, Or Foot The Deletion Of The Zeros !  :butt-kicking:

 

 

KAPERONI: Let's take a look at this article...  LINK

 "...according to correspondences official start of this year procedures deleting three zeros from the local currency,..."

 What "procedures" could they be doing that would'nt be obviously noticeable?  They have not made any announcements, nor introduced new currency.  The procedures they mean must be the collection of 3 zero dinar (which is also backed up by the "lack of liquidity" articles).  And according to this article they began the first of the year (2013).

Then we get this last paragraph...

"Among the difficulties faced by Iraq if they are to foot the deletion of zeros from the dinar is withdrawn about 30 trillion dinars in circulation in the Iraqi market, then discarded and replaced with a new currency"

Which says..the difficulty for Iraq if they are to accomplish (kick, boot or foot) the deletion of zeros from the dinar is to withdraw about 30 trillion in circulation in the Iraqi market, then throw it away and replace with new dinar currency....

That is confirmation they are "removing the notes!" Which also supports the process has already started.    
...
 
 

  The important thing here is they speak as if the larger 3 zero notes must be removed before (or at least most of them).  Again, supporting the theory that they will remove the currency before raising the value.   This article is all good.

Central bank action begins deletion of zeros from the currency  Post 13 April / May 2013 15:09

BAGHDAD / Center Brief for the Iraqi Media Network (IMN ) - The parliamentary Finance Committee, the central bank and according to official communications of the current year starts procedures for deleting three zeros from the local currency, stressing that it would lead to the development of cash transactions and international economic.

And a member of the Finance Committee said Abdul-Hussein al-Yasiri, Saturday,'s (IMN ) That "According to official Almkhtabat, with the central bank, it is supposed to start during this-General Balastaadadt for deleting three zeros from the local currency."

He pointed out that "the local currency will reduce from four billion to one billion unit unit which will make there in the process of transfer of the currency."

Yasiri between that "the Finance Committee to make changes to support the local currency because of the economic importance to the country."

The central bank says that the deletion of zeros comes under a plan to develop its monetary policy and currency management reform.

He was a member of the Finance Committee parliamentary Haitham al-Jubouri, had said in an earlier statement to him that "the replacement of the currency and delete Ocefarha will features the best and biggest reduce the size of inflation and revive the dinar due to lack of demand for the dollar, which comes advantages of a large economy of the country, and to replace it will revive the country's economy but needs to the atmosphere of political and economic environment for the implementation of the project without facing any obstacles lead to the deterioration of the Iraqi currency. "

The CBI had said in August that it plans to delete the zeros from the Iraqi dinar to facilitate financial transactions carried out through cash in most cases.

Among the difficulties faced by Iraq if they are to foot on the deletion of zeros from the dinar is pulling about 30 trillion dinars in circulation in the Iraqi market now, then get rid of them and replace them with a new currency.

The Finance Ministry has ruled out earlier in the deletion of zeros from the local currency in 2013 because the budget is calculated in current currency.   From: Ahmad al-Maliki, n: m Q  LINK

MIKE:  Great article Kap, what do you suppose they mean in the last paragraph that states "has ruled out earlier in the deletion of zeros from the currency in 2013 because the budget is calculated in current currency"? Are they saying the 2014 budget will be in RV'd dinars? If so, wouldn't they have to RV the currency to determine what the rate is prior to creating a budget? Thanks in advance!

KAPERONI:  No mike they do not.  Most of what people say about the budget is wrong, BS or just nonsense to make you think they need to raise the value before the budget is released.

These budgets in Iraq are based on USD, not dinar (though they convert it for their citizens).   The bottom line is only about 30% of the budget has anything to do with an exchange rate (Investment) in iraq.  The rest is Operational (payroll, utilities, etc.) and exchange rate means nothing.   

Until the dinar is worth more than the dollar, it won't be calculated in the Investment portion.    

I do not expect a RV either as the CBI themselves have stated.."floating orbit of exchange" which is a gradual rise via a float.

KAPERONI:  thor, as I said, the dinar can rise at anytime.   It has many times in the past as it Shabibi has taken it from 4,000 = $1 to 1,166 =$1.  

Until the dinar is worth more than the dollar, it makes no sense in the budget at any rate because it won't benefit Iraq.  So technically, they may not change it in the budget till the first of the year, or mid year...whatever....we don't care about that.

*KAPERONI:  Just because it's called a "program rate" does not mean its not the true rate.  It is the current exchange rate of the dinar.  For whatever the reason, it could be artificial, it could be intentional, it does not matter...it is the rate.   

"True value" as you say is relative to the conditions, GDP, etc.  and until Iraq gets their act together, I assume the dinar will continue on the program rate.  That may be a week, a month or even longer.

 The good news is all signs point to it rising this year

WEDREAM:  the change from saddams dinar to cpa issued dinar was drastic & quick it was designed to stop financing of terroristic cells within iraq ie:bathhist led & financed alqeda in the  sunni provinces this process should be a gradual change because there is no stigma attached to the 3 zero notes as there was with the saddam era notes,

the new notes will simply be the smaller denoms being traded out for the larger 3 zero notes  but the 3 zero notes will not be made illegal .

sort of like when our own country did away with our own 3 zero notes . even today if i were to find a $1000 bill tucked away in an old  book& took it to any bank they would happiily trade it for 10 $100  bills. though we did quit printing  the $1000 bills, which is what iraq says is going to happen.

 hope that helps to put your mind at ease. here check out the wiki link concerning our own 3 zero notes   LINK

TLAR:  As the CBI exerts is authority it must be driving Maliki nuts.  The CBI seems to be claiming its independence from the bank with each new article.  Maliki fired his shot at the bank with fresh accusations of stealing by Turki only to have it thrown back in his face with the bank proving that it is just an internal accounting error.

 Like I said before, this was his best attempt to retake the bank and it failed.  That makes it that much harder to immediately come back and accuse him of something else.  Parliament would realize along with everyone else that it is a politically motivated attack like he did to Shabibi, with little to no substance to it.

IMHO that means Maliki will be left floundering around the issue of the currency as he watches the bank make declarations like the one above and continues to close in on their goal.  If the bank is serious about removing the zeros, there exists a period of time that they would be well advised to make this move.

  That period in my mind in within the next 6 months because they would be better to do it while Maliki is still regrouping from this loss.  Being mindful that they will probably do this at the beginning of an accounting period means July 1st or October 1st.

My money now is on July because Maliki will have less time to make another run at the bank.  I stand by all my earlier posts.  I think the driving force here is the international community and I think they have made the decision to go without the approval of the government.

I look for more attempts to stop the bank from changing the currency by Maliki, but as long as the IMF/WB/Treasury Dept and CBI hold hands, these attempts will be thwarted just as the last one was.

 The CBI is closing ranks and less and less information about what the bank is doing will come out until its done.  Saleh said this same thing yesterday when he made reference to the fact that no one knows what's going on in the bank.

The only things the bank will be releasing is regulations that they determine is good for Iraq and the currency.  There will be no more consults with the government because they just want to keep delaying the inevitable.  They will just continue to release things they alone have determined right for monetary policy in Iraq.

As far as float vs removing the zeros goes, it all comes down to how you read these articles.  They continue to say remove the zeros.  In another post of mine I attempted to explore what they mean by remove the zeros.  We know it is not lop.

Kap has pretty well beat that horse to death explaining accurately IMHO, that that definition does not exist.  Next there are some that believe the term remove the zeros, means removing the physical three zero notes from circulation.

I question this definition because that is what the CBI has been doing since April 2011, and by now most of the 3 zero notes have been removed from circulation in Iraq.  In addition many of the articles have continued to say that they were delaying the removal of the zeros until 2014.

My question is how do you delay something you are doing everyday and have been doing daily since April 2011?  I don't think removing the zeros has anything at all with the physical currency (3 zero notes) itself.  That only leaves one other definition to this phrase in my mind.

Removing the zeros means what Shabibi has told us since day one.  Removing 3 zeros from the nominal rate, also called the exchange rate.  In my mind this is what I believe all the articles in the last few months have talking about

 There is inherent dangers to let the currency just float instead of benchmarking the new rate at  least a dollar to start.  The first is obvious to me.  This would provide no incentive for Iraqi's to start turning in their US currency and start using their worn out, torn and tattered no value currency (the dinar).

They are pretty much dollarized  so much so, that most transactions are done in US currency, not dinar.  The only incentive to draw the Iraqi's back to the dinar is by adding true value to the dinar somewhere around a dollar.  This is the only thing that makes sense to me.

 But an even bigger danger looms for the dinar if they go international with their currency at 1166.  Iraq has spent 2 years and billions of US dollars repatriating the dinar back to the CBI.  A house cleaning if you will with its major goal to reduce the amount of dinar in circulation..

Remember a dinar is an IOU and therefore represents a debt to the country. If the dinar comes out at 1166, it can be used internationally for payments.

By using their currency to pay balance of trade at 1166, they would flood the dinar back into the market faster than it took them to draw it back in, defeating and muting everything they have been trying to do..

 Iraq today imports almost 100% of the goods they use.  If they were buying these goods with dinar, that would mean for every $1 million in goods imported, be it consumer, military, food or new equipment to start Iraq businesses with,  they would have to send out $1.16 billion dinar.

Iraq imports billions of dollars every year and as their economy is suspected to grow 9% this year they will be spending even more billions importing goods.  They will end up flooding international markets with dinar long before the currency goes up in value.  This goes back to supply and demand.

Flooding the market with a currency works directly against the potential of the currency to increase.  Also central banks around the world are already holding some dinar.

A market has to exist for the currency in order to see value increase.  If they open the currency at 1166 the market will not be a home grown market ,meaning I don't think there is any incentive for Iraqi's to start buying the currency.

The Central Banks around the world have no incentive to purchase more at this level ,as they already are holding dinar and have already speculated in the currency. Maybe they would be willing to invest more but where is their incentive? They will take a wait and see attitude IMHO.

There will be those that think Forex is the market.

I would love to debate them on the grounds that it is a select bunch of people who speculate in currencies and unless Iraq puts more currency on the street, where will the billions of dinar come from that is anticipated to trade by these guys who think Forex is the way it will increase.  IMHO everybody holding dinar will mostly still hold..

Most speculaters will only pay a small premium to buy the dinar and as they do this might work against  the dinar.  Also small guys like you and I already own 1.5 - 2 trillion dinars and again some might buy a few more, but most will hold until what we own has value if ever.

  Iraq only has one chance at this to get it write.  My personal opinion is that to remove the zeros off the nominal rate making the dinar .86 to 1.00 is their first best shot.  It will stimulate the markets.

You will sell your dinar or at least some.  Iraqi's will dump their dollars for dinar if for no other reason than pride.  Speculators on Forex will get excited on the news and not wanting to miss the next jump will start to buy.

 Governments will actually be able to trade or sell their dinar holdings because at $1.00, there will be markets for the dinar. AT 1.00 Iraq will have many many fresh investors that will want to jump in, just as us, old, tired, sick of Iraq, investors jump ship.

They will have effectively created the market that can drive the currency to $3.00 and beyond.  Shabibi was ready to remove the zeros early last year.

If the bank thought they could support the move back then, think of how much more ready to support the currency today they are with all the dinar they have bought back.  I don't think they will go backwards and I believe thats exactly what a float at 1166 would do.  All  IMHO..

Sorry in advance for any grammatical or spelling errors in the above, but it took too long to write to make my argument for the RV.  By the time I finished I did not want to proof read  TLAR

 

 

BNA13:  Tlar, What was it that the CBI started doing in April 2011 that they were not doing before that date? And what was the purpose for the change?   Thanks.

KAPERONI: Finance parliamentary: the central bank this year will begin procedures for the deletion of zeros from the currency  13/04/2013    LINK


KAPERONI: Parliamentary Finance: Central Bank begins procedures deletion of zeros from currency By: wab    Date: Sunday 04/14/2013 12:59 AM   LINK


ELLIE:  Central Bank begins procedures deletion of zeros from currency

Sunday, April 14 / April 2013   Baghdad / Orr News   LINK
...
 

 

TLAR:  BNA13, the CBI announced that it  had been removing,collecting and retiring the 5000, 10000, 25000 notes starting in April of 2011. 

They announced this toward the end of 2011 on or around the same time (Oct 2011) when they announced they were ready to remove the zeros.  They have fought the government ever since. 

As these notes came into the bank starting in April, they were replaced with the 1000, 500, 250 and the 50 dinar notes.  At the time the CBI had decided to leave the 1000 note in circulation as a transitional note.  They had no plans to print a new 1000 note with the smalls but announced they would leave it in circulation as legal tender.. 

I suspect that their intentions were to remove these 1000 dinar notes also following the removal of the zeros, because to walk around with a 1000 note in your pocket, once the dinar became 1 to 1, was both impractical and dangerous. 

It was and still is the hope and goal of the CBI, that as Iraqi's traded in the 3 zero notes that the would open bank accounts and "juice" the banks.  After Saddam had robbed the bank just before the war, Iraqi's have been reluctant to use the banks.

  I would like to make one more observation.

 Again they are referencing replacing the currency along side of removing the zeros.  If you believe as I do that replacing the zeros is not getting rid of the 3 zero notes slowly over time, but rather it refers to an actual event that will have to happen all at once as in RV, then this statement in the above article makes sense:

  "Among the difficulties faced by Iraq if they are to foot the deletion of zeros from the dinar is the withdrawal of about 30 trillion dinars in circulation in the Iraqi market, then discarded and replaced with a new currency".

  I say this because unless they do this as a single event instead over an unknown period of time they will have to dollarize almost 100%.  Liquidity is already a problem as with condition of the physical paper in circulation.

 If you recall last year the CBI announced that they would try to replace the existing 250 dinar with a new 250, probably the 2 language already printed in 2003, They announced that by November of last year they would start the process to replace the 250 because they were in such bad shape that most government employees and street vendors would no longer accept them in transactions. 

No more was heard about it after that.  They never released a new 250.  I believe that the sales of USD at the auctions and the banks made the bank change their mind, favoring instead tio completely dollarize as an interim way to achieve preparation to removal of the zeros.  Iraqi's today are still turning in their tattered and torn dinars and racing to the dollar. 

 The CBI has announced a new in your face government attidude.  They are going to do this inspite of an unrelenting government attacks.  I realize that articles are still ending with the statement that the economy and the government issues need to be settled first as all articles have since 2010. 

IMHO this statement is a dinosaur hold over.  It is now just filler. 

We have seen many articles where statements like this continue routinely appear in subjects across the board.  I personally think it is now an add on to any article coming out about removing the zeros. 

For the bank to boldly make the statement that "we are starting with implementing the removal of the zeros this year for the good of Iraq and the economy", then to go on and re-puppet the advantages to this as we have seen in many of the articles, and then finish the article with "we are waiting for the appropriate time when the government is settled and the economy is better", looks to me like only the first part is accurate. 

The rest looks like filler to me.  The same filler we have seen article after artice since 2010.  I think the bank means what they say finally.  There  are implementing the removal of the zeros this year. 

I think we will see many articles come out now with the new defiant bank who has finally come to the same conclusion as many of us have.  The government does not want to see this happen for whatever their reasons are.  I believe that the international community has said enough is enough and they are going to do this finally. 

To use the excuse we are waiting until the economy is better seems a misnomer to me.  The economy will get better faster if Iraq has an international currency with value.  The government issue will not be resolved while Maliki is in office an d maybe for a while after that, and at least until December,  it looks like he will still be in office.  There is no more waiting.

JRD:      I've always felt that if an RV/float is necessary for the re-booting of the Iraqi economy, which has THE major commodity that the world NEEDS, oil, then  the international community would push, pull, demand, back-into-the corner, those who are in charge of making this happen inside Iraq.

 My question is a simple one:  If Turki at the CBI is Maliki's(M)  hand-picked governor, and if Maliki does not want it to happen and appointed Turki so he could control the CBI, then why would Turki seemingly go against his boss(M) and plunge ahead?  Couldn't M just as easily fire him and get a new puppet in the CBI?

SADIE:  jrd.......Maliki didn't fire Shabibi....He had an arrest warrent issued..(not served) on Shabbs when he was out of country...Shabbs did not return, obviously to avoid arrest,  like Saleh and the 30 women.

So with Shabbs a no show,  Maliki simply filled his position....I believe like you that Turki was a Maliki man,  but it appears, perhaps that the IMF, and maybe even Shabibi have had a talk with him, and he has had a change of heart,   and has now decided to follow the CBI plan..

CARRELLO:  Turki is on his way to New York and Washington DC, and I would bet that he is completely de-Malikiarized when he returns, although I believe he saw the writing on the wall immediately upon becoming CBI's head.  He has not supported Maliki since then

CORNBREAD:  tiar im with u i always said it will be a strait up revalue 86cents to $1.17. they have always talked about the currency has to be stable,and the cbi goal is to get back to $3.21 not up to a $1.00. the dollar is there starting point or there will be no reason to release the lower denoms but thats my opinion and im sticking with it. the RV is for the people of iraq,so they are going to put it where the people in iraq to understand and not us.

Edited by Markinsa
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"The important thing here is they speak as if the larger 3 zero notes must be removed before (or at least most of them). Again, supporting the theory that they will remove the currency before raising the value."

 

How do you remove the currency without raising the value?  That's nonsense.  Doesn't he understand the concept of supply and demand?

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The people in Iraq with Dinar are not the problem for Iraq. We are the problem for Iraq, and they are not getting speculator's Dinar. 



All the GOI has to do as far as Iraqi's with Dinar is pass a law that you can't buy camel chow with dollars, and then RV. Dealing with out of country speculators is another issue.

Edited by RVPleaseToday
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It's all crazy to me but then again i don't know squat about economics but i have learned a lot from you guys and i really appreciate the lessons.my common sense tells me that the more the dinar is worth,the faster they will get the kind of country they dream of.

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We can read the perspective of unknowing others all day long. The fact of the matter is that the GOI is corrupt as hell. Similar to the Saddam regime in a less violent way. The CBI is ultimately controlled by the GOI, in my opinion. The problem is that Iraq trades with USD. I guess we shipped too many pallets of our paper. Thanks George and ****!

 

Iraq appears to function using USD. Why would they want to transition to their own worthless currency? Iraq has had plenty of time to do that in an effort to save face in ME. Using the currency of the infidels is not flattering to Iraq. We will have to wait and to see how this story plays out.   

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The people in Iraq with Dinar are not the problem for Iraq. We are the problem for Iraq, and they are not getting speculator's Dinar. 

All the GOI has to do as far as Iraqi's with Dinar is pass a law that you can't buy camel chow with dollars, and then RV. Dealing with out of country speculators is another issue.

 

if you put everything you and Keep know in a thimble, there would still be room for a tank to fit in it. Stop showing your ignorance PLEASE JP

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Keep and Doc see a lop behind every tree!

Not really.....but the majority of the currency news that has been coming out for years has been on that very same subject. Back when i first got in this there was a basic understanding that redenominating and removing the zeros is not what we want. But since then the gurus have done such a good job of twisting it all around into meaning something good, that half the people dont even understand what they are reading and its quite troubling.....

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Not really.....but the majority of the currency news that has been coming out for years has been on that very same subject. Back when i first got in this there was a basic understanding that redenominating and removing the zeros is not what we want. But since then the gurus have done such a good job of twisting it all around into meaning something good, that half the people dont even understand what they are reading and its quite troubling.....

Are you hanging in still for an rv, a bit of profit after an rd, or just for the entertainment value of seeing where this finally lands after all this time? You've been on this ride for a while, so what motivates you to keep following it? Curious.

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Are you hanging in still for an rv, a bit of profit after an rd, or just for the entertainment value of seeing where this finally lands after all this time? You've been on this ride for a while, so what motivates you to keep following it? Curious.

Of course I want a RV...no matter how big the odds.....I think thats what we all want.....

 

There is a level of entertainment from all the gurus, and its a learning experience as well seeing a worn torn country work its way up from the bottom.....

 

The only thing that keeps me going is the slightest amount of hope that the CBI is full of crap and they have been lying to us and the global community......

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