The impact of a huge currency shock on society

[sandstorm]

I don't think anyone would care about the past as they would now be able to afford more for the future.

If it were to truly R/V, us speculators would be mad that it really did happen and we wished we bought more (or for some, didn't sell some of our holding(s))

 

But than again, I am skeptical of any overnight r/v, as I am simply looking for a gradual raising of the currency. Stability in the dinar does exist at the moment, but, the people are still poor and the economy is slowly growing. As the economy grows, the potential for the dinar grows. I would imagine it is best to allow the appreciation of the dinar as it would allow more wealth to the people and possibly increase the demand. 

 

We can get into foreign contracts, but I would argue a lot of contracts are likely done in dollars. Salaries paid in dinar would only be a good thing for the people as it buys more.

It would be interesting to see how people are paid in that country. Government officials are paid in dinars, but who else gets paid in dinars?

i feel the same way about gradual continued increases. the whole point about dollars and contracts is mute.

because even if the contracts are in dollars........those dollars will come from the goi converting its account in dinar to dollars. If everyone in iraq used usd.....the cbi would eventually run out. then they call the fed or treasury and order more usd....but they have to give out equivalent in dinar. and if the whole country used usd......the local currency would collapse

[MiuraDude]

Unless your life's experiences have somehow been on par or paralleled that of the average Iraqi, you're not in any position to predict what he might do in any given situation. Those guys think differently.

 

I'm not saying your original premise doesn't have some validity makecents, I'm just saying you, I or anyone else on the outside looking in can't understand how the mind of the average Iraqi works. If the overnight RV does occur, their reaction might be on a level that you're not even considering or can't even imagine right now.

[sandstorm]

The usd from oil sales covers the budget.....but when you run low or need more dollars...theres the cbi pumping out more and more dinar to get it

If iraq rvd to a dollar with 70 trillion dinar.....that would be the same as 70 trillion in dollars.....but its only supported at 68 billion in foreign reserves. so when iraqis start spending there trillions on goods from america.....its paid in dollars. so where does these trillions and trillions come from to cover the balance of trade?

Its a mess for a country........who doesnt produce much of anything besides oil

Edited March 22, 2013 by sandstorm

[The Machine]

As far as the chances of being a winner or loser if a big RV were to occur?  Sure.  That does not mean the losers will be happy about it afterwards.  They didn't enter into such a gamble they would have had it thrust upon them by the government.  Throw in all the sectarian divides already present and I think the result would be catastrophic.

 

who said this was about making anybody "happy" ..... this is about getting a country back on its feet

[dontlop]

.By "loser" I was referring to the folks who gain little or nothing while the next guy makes a fortune, all due to no actions on their part but only by the government.

so you admit no one loses anything .. thats a good start .

[makecents]

so you admit no one loses anything .. thats a good start .

Why not actually respond to the point rather than taking something out of context?

who said this was about making anybody "happy" ..... this is about getting a country back on its feet

Massive social unrest is not a good way to get a country "back on its feet".  And how is Iraq not back on its feet now?  The economy seems to be doing pretty well.

[The Machine]

 The economy seems to be doing pretty well.

 

So you would consider yourself an expert on this matter .... have you ever been to Iraq ..... I have , within the past year.

[makecents]

Unless your life's experiences have somehow been on par or paralleled that of the average Iraqi, you're not in any position to predict what he might do in any given situation. Those guys think differently.

 

I'm not saying your original premise doesn't have some validity makecents, I'm just saying you, I or anyone else on the outside looking in can't understand how the mind of the average Iraqi works. If the overnight RV does occur, their reaction might be on a level that you're not even considering or can't even imagine right now.

True enough.  But, I would not say that their culture is known for getting along with each other.  So it seems reasonable that such an event with random winners, is not going to lead to more harmony.

So you would consider yourself an expert on this matter .... have you ever been to Iraq.

I am not nor have ever said that I was an expert.  Their economy is growing, inflation is stable and not too high, oil production is increasing, relations with their neighbors are improving.  That seems to fit "pretty well" wrt their economy to me.  Not so to you?

 

They of course have a big corruption problem, the government has a hard time agreeing to anything, and violence is still an issue, but those are not economic issues and I don't see a big RV helping with any of those problems.

[The Machine]

to be honest it's 9pm here on a friday evening .... I've actually got things to do so I cant keep this back a forth thing going.

 

I think i'll just leave it at that.

[makecents]

Have a great evening/weekend!

[4aprofit]

The link I provided has copyright 2012 at the very bottom center of the page, it sometimes has events scrolling across the top that show events for 2013 also, so we know this is relevant info..and that this is currently a proposal that either is, or could still be being considered...or IMO..they would have changed it by now..we will see....

 

 

Read #3 at bottom of page/document

ttp://www.mop.gov.i...&pid=295&lng=en

 

 

(1.134) dollar per dinar beats all the other B.S. we are told...even though many of us think it will be much, much higher....

[makecents]

The link I provided has copyright 2012 at the very bottom center of the page, it sometimes has events scrolling across the top that show events for 2013 also, so we know this is relevant info..and that this is currently a proposal that either is, or could still be being considered...or IMO..they would have changed it by now..we will see....

 

 

Read #3 at bottom of page/document

ttp://www.mop.gov.i...&pid=295&lng=en[/size]

 

(1.134) dollar per dinar beats all the other B.S. we are told...even though many of us think it will be much, much higher....[/size]

As I have pointed out in the thread you first posted this in, the copyright banner appears on every page on the MOP site and is not part of the document. Since the doc is talking about how it makes no sense to use Saddam's official but fictitious rate of $3.2 and proposes $1.134 instead, that puts it way in the past (1999 or 2000 or maybe even the mid 90s).

Edited March 22, 2013 by makecents

[4aprofit]

Expert: Iraqi dinar is immune and will not vibrate and when global economic crises

Posted: September 20, 2012 in Iraqi Dinar/Politics 

Tags: Baghdad, Central bank, Currency, economy, International finance, Iraq, Iraqi dinar,News agency

 

 

Date: 2012-09-20 12: 42: 22 Thursday

 

Baghdad (News) … Financial expert ruled out as beautiful, a global economic crisis might damage the national economy and the local currency because they are supported by large oil wealth and cash reserves of hard currency.

A beautifully (News Agency news): increased production and export of Iraqi crude oil and rising oil prices in global markets will support the national economy and make it strong and not affected by the global economic crisis.

He noted: that the Iraqi dinar is covered with large reserves of hard currency and there is data indicate the increased demand for buying Iraqi dinar in the global banking markets, this indicates that the dinar started to recover and regain its international and regional currencies.

He added: that Iraq has a large investment opportunities which can attract international companies to invest in the Interior of the country, what gives support to local currency by increasing demand for buying Iraqi dinars in the finance markets.

 

http://wp.me/pZC7o-eKr

 

[dontlop]

Why not actually respond to the point rather than taking something out of context?

this is something you should apply to yourself

[4aprofit]

I HAVE TOLD FOLKS THAT IRAQ CONTRADICTS THEMSELVES.....especially as per their news sometimes as well...

 

NOTE: IF THERE WERE NOTHING TO THERE EVER BEING A REVALUE, RV, RI....OR WHATEVER WE WILL CALL IT....WHY ARE THERE SO MANY ARTICLE'S COMING OUT OF IRAQ REGARDING THEIR NEEDS TO RAISE THE VALUE OF THEIR MONEY, AND/OR BRING IT ON PAR WITH THE U.S. DOLLAR?

 

Economic : The mission of the new Iraqi dinar is to raise the price in the currency market

Dr. Saad Al Hassoun Hayali

The deterioration that took place in Iraqi dinars since the early eighties of the last century as a result of economic policies random non-scientific, which followed the Iraqi political system before,

Who pursued the policy of broad consumer spending Bcatrih military and civil cause of the deterioration of the Iraqi dinar to the bottom so that the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar today fils Iraqi equivalent prices in 1988.

That monetary policy Iraqi conscious exercised by the Central Bank of Iraq's current political circumstances, economic, social, very difficult, and hanging over the fact of the bombings and the destruction of infrastructure, but the Iraqi Central Bank was able to achieve balance and stability of the Iraqi dinar, to maintain the cover of the Iraqi currency (reserve currency foreign and gold) in spite of government pressure, the use of this balance in public investment, but the Central Bank of Iraq has managed to fend off these pressures, and work according to the contexts of the global central banks

The issuance of the new Iraqi dinar should not be designed to delete the zeros, but must be placed a price equivalent to the U.S. dollar, the fact that the Middle East regions of the dollar, it must be new dinar equation:

New Iraqi Dinars IQD is equivalent to 1220 and added to the cost of issuing one new dinar.

And be here the issuance process meaningful is not the deletion of zeros, but the withdrawal of currency excess of the market and therefore absorb part of the inflated prices, and facilitate the process of trade, and improving financial control of the governmental apparatus, and to facilitate the feasibility studies for investment projects, and raise administrative efficiency. And reduce the phenomenon of administrative corruption.

 

http://www.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.alsabaah.com%2F&langpair=ar|en&hl=en&ie=UTF8

[makecents]

this is something you should apply to yourself

Please point out where I have not done so.  I DO respond to content and do not get into asserting motives for people.  I'm not saying I'm perfect here, but I think the vast majority of my posts are on the dinar, Iraq, and whats possible and not about the person posting.

[dontlop]

 you constantly tear apart peoples paragraphs   that put  what they are saying into context every day .and put single sentences  of what they said into other context .

 

 

you pull out a sentence and separate it from  the rest of their point . its what you do .. thats why i started doing it to you .  and you come back with .. how i take it out of context ..

[4aprofit]

AND IF IRAQ IS SUCH A RISK, AS SOME ON HERE PORTRAY IT TO BE...WHY WAS TEMPLETON INVESTED LIKE YOU WILL SEE BELOW, EVEN BACK IN 2009?...WHERE IS OUR TYPICAL MAINSTREAM MEDIA ON THIS?

 

TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS INCOME FUND
AS OF MAY 31, 2009
TOTAL NET ASSETS: $604,618,620
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE: $12.77


PERCENT OF
TOTAL NET
ASSET ALLOCATION ASSETS PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS
---------------- ---------- ---------------------------- ----------
CASH & OTHER 7.4% WEIGHTED AVG. CREDIT QUALITY BBB-
FIXED INCOME 92.6% WEIGHTED AVG. MATURITY 9.12 yrs.
---------- WEIGHTED AVG. DURATION 5.420 yrs.
100.0% WEIGHTED AVG. COUPON 7.380%


PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
TOTAL NET TOTAL NET
NET CURRENCY DISTRIBUTION ASSETS COUNTRY DISTRIBUTION ASSETS
------------------------- --------- ---------------------- ---------
ASIA 14.0% ASIA 22.9%
INDO RUPIAH 12.2% FIJI 1.6%
MALAYSI RINGGIT 0.8% INDIA 1.6%
SOUTH KOREAN WON 1.0% INDONESIA 12.8%
EUROPE 0.5% PAKISTAN 1.5%
EURO MON UNIT -0.4% PHILIPPINES 3.9%
POLAND ZLOTY 0.8% SOUTH KOREA 1.0%
LATIN AMERICA 14.9% VIETNAM 0.6%
BRAZILIAN REAL 12.7% EUROPE 23.2%
CHILEAN PESO 0.6% BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 0.9%
MEXICAN PESO 1.3% GEORGIA 0.9%
PERU NUEVO SOL 0.3% HUNGARY 0.5%
MID-EAST/AFRICA 1.3% KAZAKHSTAN 5.6%
EGYPTIAN POUND 1.3% NETHERLANDS 1.9%
NORTH AMERICA 69.4% POLAND 0.8%
US DOLLAR 69.4% RUSSIA 6.3%
TOTAL 100.0% UKRAINE 5.8%
UNITED KINGDOM 0.5%
LATIN AMERICA 33.4%
ARGENTINA 7.5%
BRAZIL 14.3%
COLOMBIA 1.5%
EL SALVADOR 0.4%
MEXICO 3.5%
PANAMA 1.1%
PERU 4.7%
VENEZUELA 0.3%
MID-EAST/AFRICA 10.2%
EGYPT 1.3%
GHANA 0.7%
IRAQ 5.2%
SOUTH AFRICA 2.0%
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1.0%
OTHER 8.4%
SUPRANATIONAL 4.5%
CASH 3.2%
DERIVATIVES 0.8%
NORTH AMERICA 2.0%
UNITED STATES 2.0%
TOTAL 100.0%

[makecents]

 you constantly tear apart peoples paragraphs   that put  what they are saying into context every day .and put single sentences  of what they said into other context .

 

 

you pull out a sentence and separate it from  the rest of their point . its what you do .. thats why i started doing it to you .  and you come back with .. how i take it out of context ..

I do so not to alter the context but to respond to each point the poster made.  If you feel I have taken something out of context, please point it out.

AND IF IRAQ IS SUCH A RISK, AS SOME ON HERE PORTRAY IT TO BE...WHY WAS TEMPLETON INVESTED LIKE YOU WILL SEE BELOW, EVEN BACK IN 2009?...WHERE IS OUR TYPICAL MAINSTREAM MEDIA ON THIS?

What has this got to do with this thread?  You also already posted the same thing elsewhere, what is the point of that?  It just make the conversation hard to follow if it is in multiple places.  (I responded to your post in the other thread).

[sandyf]

 But that is the point.  You buy a house say for 50M IQD (just making up a number) and put 5M down.  Then it RVs, now that 5M you put down would have bought 100 such houses, but the seller of the house has it not you.  What happens to the 45M IQD you owe in the mortgage is another question, but just the lose of the downpayment would be most upsetting, wouldn't it?  

 

Of course if you are in this process and an RV were to happen PRIOR to executing the transaction you would indeed be dancing in the street, which might be all the more galling for the guy that missed out.

Sure, but we're not talking about 100 year trends here but an overnight RV of 1000x.

 

Right, but this is one reason to avoid currency shocks. They can not be announced but would split society into big winners and big losers, which (perhaps especially in Iraq that already has enough problems) is a bad thing.

 

Probability would say that there will be just as many who lose out (having recently made a purchase) as there will be folks who were about to do so. The amount is all relative. To a poor person 50,000 IQD that turns into $50,000 USD could be a life changer, that they either get or miss.

 

Accounts just do not work like that. All accounts, salaries, prices etc would have to be restated, not revalued. Mortgages, loans etc would all retain the same value, only physical banknotes would be affected.

 

This is why the politicians have been moving their money out of the country.

 

Effect on society would be purely a 'suck it and see' scenario as there is no historical precedent.

[Markinsa]

I see all this talk about how they will react when the Dinar Revalues and how they'll be mad if they didn't cash in on this whole deal, and how it was the government that caused it all... But what about when the currency tanked and the government caused that?  They were really mad then.

 

-

[4aprofit]

As per Iraq and how his plan will play out...no one knows, and all theories are just that, just theories...but, we will see the end of this ride hopefully soon...but, IMO...with a strong economy like Iraq has..it must have strong currency to drive itself..no different than Kuwait next door, who is nothing but a smidgen on the map compared to Iraq...and Kuwait is investing like crazy in everything in Iraq...the last account I had as per something like this...is wealth follows wealth and not poverty..lol... 

[sandfly]

YEP

[RVPleaseToday]

I think it is an exaggeration to say that Iraq has a strong economy. Sure, it is better than last year, or the year before. But is is certainly a long way from strong. Take away the oil and the economy (and government) would completely collapse.

[4aprofit]

Some can just keep on dreamin about what Iraq cant do, and as per their economy being weak...your media has you dumbfounded!...lol...