Popular Post CaptainWingnut Posted March 2, 2013 Popular Post Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 As an old behavioral psychologist I'm usedto looking at actions-reactions and asking WHY? Up front just to be clear... this is just my My watching this for years and asking WHY? And then developing my own thoughts to answer that question. This is me sharing my thoughts with you, not to convince you but to give you another logical way to look at what is happening before our eyes. I'm not going to EVEN TRY to post LINKS to anyof the history I will refer to... I don't have the time...and since I'm not writing this thesis for a grade,it just ain't going to happen!!PLUS There are way too many news hounds herewho are WAY better at finding the links than I am I'm sure if you need a link, ask nicely and one of thesegreat posters will probably drudge it up for you, Hey, it might be good for you to research it and find it.Okay, let me share some common knowledge with you.First,We know from way too many news stories overway too many years that Iraq wants to be the strongestcurrency in the region (as they once were),and they have threatened this many times, ANDthe financial world is also cheering that behavioral on.Second,We also know that the streets of Iraq are now running onthe U.S. Dollar, as about a year ago I wrote a pieceon how Iraq was removing the dinar from the streetsright after the 1166 pip move (that one you can findif you look up my account and my posts).When the dust settled after Saleh scared the people,there was very little dinar left on the streets...Now it's mainly U.S. Dollars.My contacts there have told me that there isn't a dinar to be found.They've told me that people are hoarding Dinar if they can,in preparation for the coming RV(yes the Iraqis believe its an RV coming)but many have had to use their IQD just to survive.Third,Iraq has announced many times that they will requireeveryone doing business with them in the futureto do it in IQD.Fouth,We also know from current news stories that the Iraqi peopleare fed up with their government and the poverty and theterrible living conditions they are in.They used to have the U.S. to blame but too much timehas passed and with no real U.S. presence there nowthe people are now blaming their governement.If you've seen the pictures, it looks like freewaysfull of people protesting and screaming for the"heads" of their leaders.They only get about an HOUR a day of electricity.WOW! How would you feel with that one?Many use portable generators just trying to keepfood from spoiling a couple of lights on andmaybe keep an air conditioner going in the hot months.They are basically Sick and Tired ofbeing Poor and Sick and Tired and living in the dark.Iraq is on the tipping point of their own Arab Spring andtheir government (let alone the rest of the world)can NOT afford to have this happen now, or really ever.Okay, let me share some behavioral theroiesand my thoughts on an RV and the logical amountbased on human behavior.WE MUSTKeep in mind, this is IRAQ and this is THEIR deal.They are not doing this for anyone but IRAQ so we haveto keep our minds very focused on them and not letOUR needs and desires shadow or cloud our objectivity.First, the people in the streets.The way to calm the people is to make their living conditionsbetter and you can do that fast by increasing their buyingpower and also sharing with them the wealth of the kingdom.This comes fast and easy with an RV.In fact I believe that they have plans to pay every Iraqicitizen (man, women and child) about $11K / yearas a government shared natural resources allowance.Okay HERE WE GO, What if I were in charge of the RV? (scary) If I were responsible for revaluing the DinarI would bring it in in at a 1 to 1 value with the U.S. Dollarand hold that value for a time.This could be done pegged at 1:1 and then releasedlater on a managed float.During the initial 1:1 pegged time I would closely watchthe de-dollarization of USD in Iraq.Since the IQD would be equal to the USD currently on the streetthis would NOT affect the market place a bit as the valuewould be exactly the same.No harm, no foul. The people and the government WIN.This would give banks time to receive USD and replaceit with IQD and it would be just business as usual.I would hold it there at 1:1 for maybe six to eight weeksdepending on how fast the USD is moving off the streets,If I wanted the USD to come off the streets FASTERI would only have to raise the value of the IQD above the USDProbably to about 1.16 to 1 (USD to IQD)which would cause a small financial panic andthe remaining USD would FLY off the streets.Raising the value of the IQD over 1:1 devalues the USDand it is no longer a desired commodity. It lessens the people's buying power.It will dissappear from the market place OVER NIGHT.Now the behavioral reason for the initial 1:1If you were in Iraq and you had $10 USDto go to the store to buy groceries,you could buy $10 worth of value right? Of course, its the main currency in cirulation so everything is priced accordingly.If I revalued your IQD at 1:1, you can stillgo buy $10 worth of value with your $10USD and you can go to the bank andtrade ALL of your USD in for IQD and not get BURNED.If however IF I initially revalued the IQD at 2:1(This would be GREAT for those of us outside of Iraq but again lets not let our need and greed cloud our judgment and objectivity), {I wrote this across the page for you Goldiegirl !!}BUT if you were IN Iraq, your $10 USD would now only have $5 of Buying Power. You just LOST half the value of the money you have and are using.How would YOU feel if you were in Iraq and you werebeat up and robbed by government yet AGAIN!Arab Spring would STILL BE COMING. NOT GOOD!Keep in mind, this is ALL ABOUT IRAQ and their PEOPLE.It is NOT about US or U.S. or ANYONE outside of Iraq.If I revalue it at more than 1:1 the people of Iraq loose. More about this in a moment If I revalue it at 1:1 and let the people ADJUST to it,when I move it to 1.16 : 1, the people can't blame thegovernement for any loss they incur as they will have hadtime to make the switch. If they haven't made the switch in time, they will loose 16%of the value off their US Dollars and they WILL dump them. I believe most will switch quickly @ 1:1 for two reasons,One, their history, they know the IQD will go higher and the USD lower.Two, Patriotism. They WANT their OWN currency.Now, what about the IQD outside of Iraq?This is very simple and falls in step with Iraq'sdecree that everyone will do business with Iraq in IQD.Iraq's biggest natural resource is of course OIL.Here's what happens in a very simplified versionand you can find this in detail in Adam's writtings.When anyone outside of Iraq cashes in IQD, it willNOT go back to Iraq IMMEDIATELY.In fact it will not even effect Iraq immediately.When you cash in (we'll just us the U.S. cash in as an example)The IQD will be turned in to a U.S. Bank which will eventuallyget reimbursed by our central bank known as the"Federal Reserve" who will turn it over to the U.S. Treasury.There's a bunch of fees and trades that occur in this processand everyone takes their cut along the waybut suffice it to say, it does NOT go back to Iraq immediately.The Fed keeps the IQD and uses it in the future to buy what?OIL from Iraq, ergo the decree everyone will do businesswith Iraq in IQD.The VALUE that you will get at cash in will actually comefrom the U.S. Treasury backing your bank.The U.S. Treasury's value comes from the value of the IQDbased on Iraqi OIL and the IQD sures up the U.S. Treasury against debt. Because we are allowed to purchase IQD and cash it in, we are the MULES bringing it in and the U.S. Gov will eventually get the biggest BANG out of it. It's how our government will own a large chunk of Iraqs oil,Thank you President Bush and VP Cheney for an ingenious plan.Therefore, Iraq doesn't really care how much IQD is "Out there"because it will come back to them as tender for OIL andonly as they pump it from the ground.That means that all of the IQD outside of Iraq is valuedby the OIL that is still in the ground and they're notforced to cover it from their vaults..What we do know by procedure and treaties is thatthe IQD can only be used by foreign governmentsfor trading with Iraq and buying Iraqi commodities. OIL.Now lets talk MORE about the 1:1 value.Think about this.If Iraq comes in at 1:1 and cleans the USD off the streets,when they move it to 2:1 they will have DOUBLEDtheir money and therefore PAID for the entire RV.AGAIN, they don't substantially CARE what's outside of Iraq.Their books are ZERO..... BALANCED owning no one.When they move to 3:1 they POCKET as much as it originallycost them and they have NO debt associated with it.Can you say PROFIT from the RV?Sure I hear a lot of talk about an initial RV of $3.41 and even $4 but I believe that this would cause too much shock to Iraqs economy let alone the psyche of all Iraqis.Oh, I believe they would have liked to come in at 10cents to 1and then, when they got to 20 cents to 1they'd have paid for it! Lock, Stock and Barrel. Then it would just be profit, profit, profit as they climbed back to their mid $3 range where they fell from.But time has become their enemy and I believe as you can seethat they can't come in lower than $1The streets are full of USD and coming in at anythingLESS than 1:1 will only enrage the people more, makingthem feel that their countries leaders are still devaluingtheir homeland and resources.That alone will still - Bring on the Iraqi Arab Spring.Hey, anything less than 1:1 and their IQDis still worth LESS than the USD,the USD that they're ALREADY USINGand they WILL NOT change.People do NOT trade DOWN willingly.We ALWAYS hold our ground or trade UP.Nope, I believe 1:1 is the Win/Win for the governmentAND the people and I for one will be VERY HAPPYwith 1:1...After we see the USD off the streets in Iraq,we'll see it climb. Be ready!!Thanks All in advance for reading my worth of thoughts.CaptainWingnutGo RV SOON 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontlop Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 great analysis.. it makes sense to come in at 1 dollar per dinars based on your reasons ... it wouldnt change anything since they are use using the dollar value already .. , i didnt think of it like that ,, but now i do ,, 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
securityguy Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 Excellent read. Thank you Wing Nut. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocketman2010 Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 ole rocketman likes this just sayin' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZmosis Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hello Captain Wingnut - Great post. Well thought out and logical... and I like it when people consider the wellbeing of the Iraqi people in the midst of all this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandfly Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 IT'S LONG, SOUNDS GOOD. I HOP SO, I GIVE YOU A 8 and hop you are right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabee Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 I would very much like to see this happen this way and it just may. However, I see one large problem myself and this is with the currency outside of Iraq, mainly the U.S. How will the U.S. Treasury pay off the dollars to those of us that want to cash in, in the first few weeks. Let's say I have 5 million IQD that have been sitting in my safe since 2005 and now I have 3 million dollars in U S currency, this is of course after the spread and taxes, for those that just want to be out this long ride. Conventional wisdom tells me that when I go to my bank to cash in, that the bank will create an account with digital funds to pay me off. It is just not possible to pay out billions of dollars to those that may want a bag full of cash. This leaves the Feds to create electronic funds to pay everyone with. Also, the unkown factor is just how many U S citizens are holding IQD? I would like to know if it is legal for the Treasury to say poof and there will suddenly be billions of dollars more in dollars in electronic form? Also, what does all that invisible money do to the value of the hard U.S. currency that is in circulation out there. I can see a period of high inflation rearing its ugly head in the U.S. I gave you a plus for your thoughtful insight. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmasters Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 After reading all these articles over the years and having to decipher and read between the lines, this made my head hurt.Kind of like going to college only to find you never got off the short bus. Other than that, once my thought process reverted to reading plain English I have to admit, this has a good ring to it and is food for thought. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontlop Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 I would very much like to see this happen this way and it just may. However, I see one large problem myself and this is with the currency outside of Iraq, mainly the U.S. How will the U.S. Treasury pay off the dollars to those of us that want to cash in, in the first few weeks. Let's say I have 5 million IQD that have been sitting in my safe since 2005 and now I have 3 million dollars in U S currency, this is of course after the spread and taxes, for those that just want to be out this long ride. Conventional wisdom tells me that when I go to my bank to cash in, that the bank will create an account with digital funds to pay me off. It is just not possible to pay out billions of dollars to those that may want a bag full of cash. This leaves the Feds to create electronic funds to pay everyone with. Also, the unkown factor is just how many U S citizens are holding IQD? I would like to know if it is legal for the Treasury to say poof and there will suddenly be billions of dollars more in dollars in electronic form? Also, what does all that invisible money do to the value of the hard U.S. currency that is in circulation out there. I can see a period of high inflation rearing its ugly head in the U.S. I gave you a plus for your thoughtful insight. i would say it would be legal especially since the new dollars would be backed by the dinars when they go to the reserves . so they wouldnt be printed out of nothing... the foriegn reserves would grow the same amount as the new dollars they print.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iownya83 Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 A+ for the thesis. I always did like me some Wingnut knowledge glad to see you back friend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umbertino Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 Quote As an old behavioral psychologist.... End Quote Please explain gurus and such. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fib1618 Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 "My contacts there have told me that there isn't a dinar to be found." I talk with a friend in Baghdad at least once every 8 weeks or so. He's telling me quite the opposite. I also communicate with a couple of Iraqi's on Facebook...they say dinar are plentiful. Comedians Steve and Ray have been telling us for years that the people are hoarding dinar in anticipation of an RV...that is not true. With their massive 35 trillion dinar(outside banks), and that staggering 72 Trillion M2... The only way the dinar will ever be 1 to 1 with the Dollar would after a move to 1000 to 1 than an RD. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldiegirl Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 Great post on your thoughts Captain Wingnut and thank you for your commnent. See that's wasn't so difficult was it? Or maybe it was. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silverdinar Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 This was an awesome explanation of how the RV should work or hopefully work but we are still dealing with Iraq, anything can change. If they want to move ahead and allow the country to prosper and benefit from the renewed currency and return to former days of stability, they will have to boost their economy with a dignified value with a substantial RV/RI or the people will revolt more than they have in protest of current situations. GO RV >>>>>>> GO UP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NORTEC Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 - I agree - This is about the impoverished Iraqi people - - And the RV coming out at 1 to 1 would not create a Shock to their system - - However - I would certainly enjoy a 3.42 shock to my system - - Go RV - 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
handy Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 thanks for the post capt.wingnut , makes alot of sense and i agree 100% , watch out for the cindy loppers though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pudge Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't see it. Even if it did RV 1 to 1 in Iraq, which would have no effect on the buying power of the citizens there, what would compel any financial institution or exchange to take in 1 Dinar for 1 US Dollar. Just because the CBI says so? I could be naive but this is the thing that has always baffled me about this whole frenzy. How does a country just come out and make a bold proclamation that their currency is now worth a thousand times more than it was yesterday and is on par with the currency of the largest, most powerful, economic nation in the world? Is it just to make Dinarians rich? Just doesn't make sense. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepmwlknfny Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 "My contacts there have told me that there isn't a dinar to be found." I talk with a friend in Baghdad at least once every 8 weeks or so. He's telling me quite the opposite. I also communicate with a couple of Iraqi's on Facebook...they say dinar are plentiful. Comedians Steve and Ray have been telling us for years that the people are hoarding dinar in anticipation of an RV...that is not true. With their massive 35 trillion dinar(outside banks), and that staggering 72 Trillion M2... The only way the dinar will ever be 1 to 1 with the Dollar would after a move to 1000 to 1 than an RD. Its true how the only ones claiming there are no dinars on the streets are the gurus.....but yet if you actually talk to people who are over there or who have served over there recently, they tell a completely different story. People dont believe the gurus on the RV everyday knowing its nonsense, but they will believe the gurus when they say there are no more dinar on the streets.....funny..... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyLadiesDaddy Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 I would very much like to see this happen this way and it just may. However, I see one large problem myself and this is with the currency outside of Iraq, mainly the U.S. How will the U.S. Treasury pay off the dollars to those of us that want to cash in, in the first few weeks. Let's say I have 5 million IQD that have been sitting in my safe since 2005 and now I have 3 million dollars in U S currency, this is of course after the spread and taxes, for those that just want to be out this long ride. Conventional wisdom tells me that when I go to my bank to cash in, that the bank will create an account with digital funds to pay me off. It is just not possible to pay out billions of dollars to those that may want a bag full of cash. This leaves the Feds to create electronic funds to pay everyone with. Also, the unkown factor is just how many U S citizens are holding IQD? I would like to know if it is legal for the Treasury to say poof and there will suddenly be billions of dollars more in dollars in electronic form? Also, what does all that invisible money do to the value of the hard U.S. currency that is in circulation out there. I can see a period of high inflation rearing its ugly head in the U.S. I gave you a plus for your thoughtful insight. In a word, QE1,2,and 3 And yes you can bet that the dollar will loose it value on this. I don't see it. Even if it did RV 1 to 1 in Iraq, which would have no effect on the buying power of the citizens there, what would compel any financial institution or exchange to take in 1 Dinar for 1 US Dollar. Just because the CBI says so? I could be naive but this is the thing that has always baffled me about this whole frenzy. How does a country just come out and make a bold proclamation that their currency is now worth a thousand times more than it was yesterday and is on par with the currency of the largest, most powerful, economic nation in the world? Is it just to make Dinarians rich? Just doesn't make sense. Probably the same way we went into Iraq and made there currency a thousand time worth less than it was the day before. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pudge Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 In a word, QE1,2,and 3 And yes you can bet that the dollar will loose it value on this. Probably the same way we went into Iraq and made there currency a thousand time worth less than it was the day before. Iraq did that on their own by massive overprinting of their currency. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontlop Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 (edited) the cia dropped bails of counterfit money on iraq during the 90s .. operation laundry . to increase the volume of sadam dinars .and to devalue it . if the amount of dinars is put into the foriegn reserves as they print up to replace them .. the us would be forced to keep those dinars in their reserves or yes it could reduce the value of the dolars right now our govt is printing 85 billion a month with nothing to back it up ..1 trillion 20 billion a year printed up .....the dinar would be a blessing to our treasury if it is tradable and backed by the iraqi govt. Edited March 2, 2013 by dontlop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepmwlknfny Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 In a word, QE1,2,and 3 And yes you can bet that the dollar will loose it value on this. Probably the same way we went into Iraq and made there currency a thousand time worth less than it was the day before. It didnt happen in one day bud......the dinar lost its value over a span of over 10 years..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyLadiesDaddy Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 Iraq did that on their own by massive overprinting of their currency. Not exactly sure what your referring to. While it wasn't internationally recognized under Saddam it was worth $3.22. That is what any Iraqi who had money could buy with one dinar. Then one day we come in and the next day that currency is suddenly worthless. And please don't try and say that was a different currency. How do you think we can create the NIQD and give it any value at all? I think at the first the NIQD , which is what we all now hold, was GIVEN the value of 4000 to one. Hows that work? You take a piece of paper put some pretty colors on it and give it any kind of value? And before Saddam the IQD held a much much higher value, that has been proven several times over here. What I am saying is simply that, IMO, what gives any countries currency value is partially based on the worth of that country. And again, IMO, they intend to base the value of the NIQD completely on the resources of the country. It didnt happen in one day bud......the dinar lost its value over a span of over 10 years..... Sorry my friend but I have to disagree with you on this one. I don't remember the exact value before Saddam, something like $2, But as I stated in the last post, under Saddam it was $3.22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatbush Zombies Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 In a word, QE1,2,and 3 And yes you can bet that the dollar will loose it value on this. Probably the same way we went into Iraq and made there currency a thousand time worth less than it was the day before. This is the problem right here...Iraqs currency DID NOT DEVALUE OVERNIGHT. the dinar was in the crapper WAY before we invaded Iraq due to saddams over printing and spending of reserves. The whole notation of it devaluing due to the invasion is a FORUM FACT. Not exactly sure what your referring to. While it wasn't internationally recognized under Saddam it was worth $3.22. That is what any Iraqi who had money could buy with one dinar. Then one day we come in and the next day that currency is suddenly worthless. And please don't try and say that was a different currency. How do you think we can create the NIQD and give it any value at all? I think at the first the NIQD , which is what we all now hold, was GIVEN the value of 4000 to one. Hows that work? You take a piece of paper put some pretty colors on it and give it any kind of value? And before Saddam the IQD held a much much higher value, that has been proven several times over here. What I am saying is simply that, IMO, what gives any countries currency value is partially based on the worth of that country. And again, IMO, they intend to base the value of the NIQD completely on the resources of the country. Sorry my friend but I have to disagree with you on this one. I don't remember the exact value before Saddam, something like $2, But as I stated in the last post, under Saddam it was $3.22. Completely wrong 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontlop Posted March 2, 2013 Report Share Posted March 2, 2013 this link shows every countrys exchange rates ...by the quarter .. going back to the 80s .. its a united nations exchange rate.... just put in the country you want and it lists every years exchange rate.. right up to feb 2013 .. http://www.unjspf.org/UNJSPF_Web/page.jsp?page=FullExchangeRts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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