Does Increase Demand For Currencies Like Dong & Dinar Hellp Their Value?

[RVPleaseToday]

I don't know how someone "stalks" you online. You simply put them on ignore and they go away. End of stalking. I've been stalked in the 3D world, and trust me, it's not the same. The guy ultimately showed up at my front door with a gun. Wish I could have put him on ignore.

Having said that, I've always felt that if you are going to advance an idea, you should be willing to defend it against all comers. If our ideas are not defensible, then we should reject them.

[dontlop]

I don't know how someone "stalks" you online. You simply put them on ignore and they go away. End of stalking. I've been stalked in the 3D world, and trust me, it's not the same. The guy ultimately showed up at my front door with a gun. Wish I could have put him on ignore.

Having said that, I've always felt that if you are going to advance an idea, you should be willing to defend it against all comers. If our ideas are not defensible, then we should reject them.

look it up if you dont know .. heres a tip

3. Don’t Respond, Just Report

Anyone who is being stalked or harassed online should not respond to the instigator. They should instead either report it to the online community where it’s happening (by flagging on social networks, reporting abusive links, etc.), or to other sites such as Cyber911 Emergency from Wired Safety, and Cyberstalking from The National Center for Victims of Crime.

Keep a record of the communications, and contact authorities if it becomes threatening in any way. People who are under the age of 18 should also alert their parents or an adult they trust to help them properly track the communications and contact authorities as appropriate.

Like bullying and harassment, stalking cannot be stopped by any technology. However, there are several ways to keep track of communications through IM, Twitter, Facebook, etc. The silver lining is that online stalking is probably easier to prosecute than physical stalking because the communications are usually traceable in some way.

Edited February 1, 2013 by dontlop

[dontlop]

yes there are about 2 or 3 actual stockers or screen names i should say.. a stalker is not limited to one scren name .. but they do have one ip address attached to their internet provider . whether it be satelite .. cable or land line.. they can be traced . who ridicule and harrasse people when they post in certain forums on this site .. we know who they are and their ip address can be traced . they dont usually bother anyone in the off topics section .. .. but the news ... rv & dinar questions .. any where your posting information about the dinar .. they linger and have driven lots of people out of these areas .. not because they dont believe in the dinar .. its just they know they got to deal with the stalkers .. if you post anything positive about iraqs dinar value increase .. they will start the prodedure . .. when one gets banned . another one is miraculously joined as new member . or they just started posting .. they been around long enough to have several screen names waiting in the wings .. .. where do they all come from .. or are they all the same people or group of people

[SWFloridaGuy]

I just wanted to say great thread guys thanks.

[DocDinar.]

None of those restrictions appear to impact Iraq's ability to change the exchange rate (so the name of "exchnage restrictions" does not appear to be referencing the exchange rate but some other type of exchange). So it does not appear to me that part of the agreement with the IMF is that Iraq will hold its exchange rate at a fixed value. And that is supported by the tiny (but normal sized) change they made last year.

You have in the past often said of the current rate things like "iraq uses a program rate .... to exchange dinars for dollars" (link). That certainly sounds to me as if you are saying Iraq's exchange rate was set to match the IMF program rate, instead of the other way around, which I think is the case. It is the IMF, not Iraq, that uses the "program rate" for their analysis, while Iraq can (I think) set their rate as they see fit, even now while under the current IMF agreements. So I don't see any support for the idea that Iraq is restricted in their exchange rate adjustments by the agreements they have with the IMF and thus no reason to think that rate will change when those agreements expire. The rate is what it is currently as that is the appropriate level given the size of the money supply and reserves.

Thanks for your opinion but I'm wondering why you opened up a new account? This post proves that you didn't just join last month.

[DocDinar.]

Saying that: A=5 and B=2 and A=B is not an opinion, its simply wrong. At least one of those statements must be incorrect. But, it is an excellent example of the sort of thinking folks use here to prop up their faith in an RV.

Wow you are extremely rude!! Dontlop is anything but a pumper and you need to back off or log back in under your real account.

[dontlop]

Wow you are extremely rude!! Dontlop is anything but a pumper and you need to back off or log back in under your real account.

thanks doc .. their was a guy who joined in november 2102 and was banned within a month .in december 2012.. go to this link of his and read a couple of his posts. and think about who he reminds you of ... http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/user/48454-joefriday/page__tab__posts

heres the clincher ... he started this topic ..> in the lopster room >>

[makecents]

Wow you are extremely rude!! Dontlop is anything but a pumper and you need to back off or log back in under your real account.

Perhaps you are not aware of the series of posts between dontlop and myself too which this is in reference. He made, and in fact insisted upon precisely the faulty logic I mentioned. In any case I did not call dontlop a pumper nor do I think he is one. I said he rationalized that so and so is possible to help support his faith in a possible RV (or his desire to have faith in a possible RV). Often his reasoning on such things is far from sound. This is very common. For example many folks continually remind themselves about how much oil Iraq has (and indeed its a lot), yet no one can say how this will allow for a higher exchange rate.

[umbertino]

I don't know how someone "stalks" you online. You simply put them on ignore and they go away. End of stalking. I've been stalked in the 3D world, and trust me, it's not the same. The guy ultimately showed up at my front door with a gun. Wish I could have put him on ignore.

Having said that, I've always felt that if you are going to advance an idea, you should be willing to defend it against all comers. If our ideas are not defensible, then we should reject them.

Thanks.

[20Mil]

Does higher demand for a currency increase its value?

Typically YES, this is the case for free floating currencies where price is driven by supply and demand. Price levels are created by supply and demand during certain economic conditions. Supply and demand changes with each economic and political situation. What was once a PRICE level in a certain economic scenario may not be important or supported in a different economic situation.

There are many types of news events or reports that affect the demand for a currency. These include but are not limited to: Building Approvals, Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate, Construction PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Services PMI, Retail Sales, Foreign Currency Reserves, Building Permits, and some of the more important news for currency is the "Cash Rate" or the Interest rate that a currency pays. All of the listed news reports listed above act as a measure of the country at that particular time so depending on how much of an impact the particular news report has on a currency will determine if that currency is bought or sold. Typically bad news for a country at any given time is bad for that countries currency. HOWEVER, news is relevant only when it contributes to break sequences of measured moves induced by Program Trading on the larger time frames, i.e. daily and weekly. But very rarely news is capable of doing that: what can really change market direction is huge and coordinated participation from smart money and/or central banks. For instance, the S&P500 was turned higher twice in the last 3 years: the first time in March 2009 and the second time in May-July 2011 by the intervention of the FED with Quantitative Easing initiatives. News moves fundamentals and fundamentals move currency pairs!

Everything I mentioned above is true for free floating currencies but really have no effect whatsoever on currencies like the Iraqi Dinar due to the fact that the Central Bank of Iraq sets its rate in order to meets its goals. Most of the time a Central Bank wont come out and say it but a Central Bank's main goal is to keep inflation under control regardless of the country.

There are several fundamentals that help shape the long term strength or weakness of the major currencies. It's easy to understand that when consumers perceive a strong economy, they feel happy and safe, and they spend money. Companies willingly take this money and say, "Hey, we're making money! Wonderful! Now... uh, what do we do with all this money?"

Companies with money spend money and all this creates some healthy tax revenue for the government. They jump on board and also start spending money. Now everybody is spending, and this tends to have a positive effect on the economy.

Weak economies, on the other hand, are usually accompanied by consumers who aren't spending, businesses who aren't making any money and aren't spending, so the government is the only one still spending. But you get the idea. Both positive and negative economic outlooks can have a direct effect on the currency markets.

Capital Flows

Globalization, technology advances and the internet have all contributed to the ease of investing your money virtually anywhere in the world, regardless of where you call home. You're only a few clicks of the mouse away (or a phone call for you folks living in the Jurassic era of the 2000's) from investing in the New York or London Stock exchange, trading the Nikkei or Hang Seng index, or from opening a forex account to trade U.S. dollars, euros, yen, and even exotic currencies.

Capital flows measure the amount of money flowing into and out of a country or economy because of capital investment purchasing and selling. The important thing you want to keep track of is capital flow balance, which can be positive or negative.

When a country has a positive capital flow balance, foreign investments coming into the country are greater than investments heading out of the country. A negative capital flow balance is the direct opposite. Investments leaving the country for some foreign destination are greater than investments coming in.

With more investment coming into a country, demand increases for that country's currency as foreign investors have to sell their currency in order to buy the local currency. This demand causes the currency to increase in value. Simple supply and demand. Problem is, again, the IQD is being held at a program rate by the CBI so supply and demand doesn't affect it's currency...

And you guessed it, if supply is high for a currency (think 72 trillion M2!), the currency tends to lose value. When foreign investments make an about-face, and domestic investors also wants to switch teams and leave, and then you have an abundance of the local currency as everybody is selling and buying the currency of whatever foreign country or economy they're investing in.

Foreign capital love nothing more than a country with high interest rates and strong economic growth. If a country also has a growing domestic financial market, even better! A booming stock market, high interest rates... What's not to love?! Foreign investment comes streaming in. And again, as demand for the local currency increases, so does its value.

Positives for Iraq:

* High Interest Rate - 6%

* Potential for strong economic growth

* Potential for growing domestic financial market

Negatives for Iraq:

*Instability

* Extremely large money supply - 72 Trillion M2 is A LOT of money floating around. Remember, if supply is high (or demand is weak) for a currency the currency tends to lose value. This is the biggest problem (M2) I see for any large increase in the value of the IQD and it shouldn't be ignored.

Interest Rates 101

Simply put, interest rates make the forex world go 'round! In other words, the forex market is ruled by interest rates.

A currency's interest rate is probably the biggest factor in determining the perceived value of a currency. So knowing how a country's central bank sets its monetary policy, such as interest rate decisions, is a crucial thing to wrap your head around.

One of the biggest influences on a central bank's interest rate decision is price stability, or "inflation".

Inflation is a steady increase in the prices of goods and services.

Inflation is the reason why your parents or your parents' parents paid a nickel for a soda pop in the 1920's, but now people pay twenty times more for the same product.

It's generally accepted that moderate inflation comes with economic growth.

However, too much inflation can harm an economy and that's why central banks are always keeping a watchful eye on inflation-related economic indicators, such as the CPI and PCE.

In an effort to keep inflation at a comfortable level, central banks will mostly likely increase interest rates, resulting in lower overall growth and slower inflation.

This occurs because setting high interest rates normally forces consumers and businesses to borrow less and save more, putting a damper on economic activity. Loans just become more expensive while sitting on cash becomes more attractive.

On the other hand, when interest rates are decreasing, consumers and businesses are more inclined to borrow (because banks ease lending requirements), boosting retail and capital spending, thus helping the economy to grow.

Yippee!

What does this have to do with the forex market?

Well, currencies rely on interest rates because these dictate the flow of global capital into and out of a country. They're what investors use to determine if they'll invest in a country or go elsewhere.

For instance, if you had your choice between a savings account offering 1% interest and another offering .25%, which would you choose?

Neither, you say?

Yea, we're inclined to go the same route - keep the money under the mattress, ya know what we mean? - but that's not an option.

Ha! You would pick the 1%, right?

We hope so... because 1 is bigger than 0.25. Currencies work the same way!

The higher a country's interest rate, the more likely its currency will strengthen. Currencies surrounded by lower interest rates are more likely to weaken over the longer term.

Pretty simple stuff.

The main point to be learned here is that domestic interest rates directly affect how global market players feel about a currency's value relative to another.

Interest Rate Expectations

Markets are ever-changing with the anticipation of different events and situations. Interest rates do the same thing - they change - but they definitely don't change as often.

Most traders don't spend their time focused on current interest rates because the market has already "priced" them into the currency price. What is more important is where interest rates are EXPECTED to go.

It's also important to know that interest rates tend to shift in line with monetary policy, or more specifically, with the end of monetary cycles.

If rates have been going lower and lower over a period a time, it's almost inevitable that the opposite will happen.

Rates will have to increase at some point.

And you can count on the speculators to try to figure out when that will happen and by how much.

The market will tell them; it's the nature of the beast. A shift in expectations is a signal that a shift in speculation will start, gaining more momentum as the interest rate change nears.

While interest rates change with the gradual shift of monetary policy, market sentiment can also change rather suddenly from just a single report.

This causes interest rates to change in a more drastic fashion or even in the opposite direction as originally anticipated.

So you better watch out!

Rate Differentials

Pick a pair, any pair.

Many forex traders use a technique of comparing one currency's interest rate to another currency's interest rate as the starting point for deciding whether a currency may weaken or strengthen.

The difference between the two interest rates, known as the "interest rate differential," is the key value to keep an eye on. This spread can help you identify shifts in currencies that might not be obvious.

An interest rate differential that increases helps to reinforce the higher-yielding currency, while a narrowing differential is positive for the lower-yielding currency.

Instances where the interest rates of the two countries move in opposite directions often produce some of the market's largest swing.

An interest rate increase in one currency combined with the interest rate decrease of the other currency is a perfect equation for sharp swings!

Nominal vs. Real

When people talk about interest rates, they are either referring to the nominal interest rate or the real interest rate.

What's the difference?

The nominal interest rate doesn't always tell the entire story. The nominal interest rate is the rate of interest before adjustments for inflation.

real interest rate = nominal interest rate - expected inflation

The nominal rate is usually the stated or base rate that you see (e.g., the yield on a bond).

Markets, on the other hand, don't focus on this rate, but rather on the real interest rate.

If you had a bond that carried a nominal yield of 6%, but inflation was at an annual rate of 5%, the bond's real yield would be 1%.

Boohoo!

That's a huge difference so always remember to distinguish between the two.

Edited February 4, 2013 by 20Mil