SWFG (1/4/13)

[DocDinar.]

1-4-12 SWFloridaGuy: Looking back over 2012 we see that Iraq is making much progress economically. Despite the fact that Iraq needs to overcome some challenges relating to investment in infrastructure, institutional reform, the hydrocarbons sector, political stability and security.

Real GDP growth for 2012 was 11.1% Reuters reported that Iraq is the 2nd fastest growing economy in 2012 with $170 billion. Excluding the oil sector the economy is expected to grow by at least 9.4%. The latest report to US Congress forecasts Iraq's GDP growth 3x that of the next strongest MENA economy. In the 70s when Iraq's currency held a much higher value GDP only ranged from $2 billion - $8 billion.

The IMF reported that economic activity was "picking up" and forecasted "robust" growth, following higher oil production and a recovery in non-oil activity. Iraq will be one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Its 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves place it second in the world behind Saudi Arabia.

Estimates are that current proven reserves could nearly double. In a world of approaching peak oil demand, these reserves have great strategic significance. Iraq is perhaps the only major oil producer in the world that will continue to be able to increase production when demand starts to rise again.

Iraq has proven oil reserves of 143 billion barrels. The majority of the known oil and gas reserves in Iraq form a belt that runs along the eastern edge of the country. Iraq has 9 fields that are considered super giants (over 5 billion barrels) as well as 22 known giant fields (over 1 billion barrels). According to independent consultants, the cluster of super-giant fields of southeastern Iraq forms the largest known concentration of such fields in the world and accounts for 70 to 80 percent of the country’s proven oil reserves.

Iraq currently has $60 billion in foreign currency reserves. In the 70s, when their former currency boasted a much larger value, Iraq's foreign reserves were only 35 billion. As CBI reserves grow, so does their credibility. There is a huge differential between the current value of the NID and previous values of the IQD. Iraq is clearly showing economic promise never before seen and (in my opinion) their exchange rate is on the path to eventual reclamation.

[willy1der]

I'm not sure but this may have been posted already DocDinar. It is some good info though.

[SWFloridaGuy]

I'm not sure but this may have been posted already DocDinar. It is some good info though.

Hey Willy, great to see you. This was from today actually. Just reviewing financials from 2012.

Edited January 4, 2013 by SWFloridaGuy

[RVPleaseToday]

"Iraq currently has $60 billion in foreign currency reserves. In the 70s, when their former currency boasted a much larger value, Iraq's foreign reserves were only 35 billion."

Just to be accurate, there were FAR fewer dinar in the 1970's than there are now. This comparison is apples to kumquats.

[SWFloridaGuy]

"Iraq currently has $60 billion in foreign currency reserves. In the 70s, when their former currency boasted a much larger value, Iraq's foreign reserves were only 35 billion."

Just to be accurate, there were FAR fewer dinar in the 1970's than there are now. This comparison is apples to kumquats.

Hello RVPleaseToday, you are absolutely correct but the information I provided was also accurate. The amount in circulation is a concern for the CBI and I have no real solution for that. Just trying to be honest.

Edited January 4, 2013 by SWFloridaGuy

[RVPleaseToday]

I agree with that. If the amount of dinar in circulation decreased, the value of each dinar would increase. Iraq keeps saying they are going to decrease the amount in circulation by removing three zeros from the currency. Problem is, they just talk about it and never actually do it. Big surprise.

[SWFloridaGuy]

I agree with that. If the amount of dinar in circulation decreased, the value of each dinar would increase. Iraq keeps saying they are going to decrease the amount in circulation by removing three zeros from the currency. Problem is, they just talk about it and never actually do it. Big surprise.

Trust me I hear ya on that one. I have been extremely frustrated by the CBI and GOI over the past couple years. In part because I feel that Iraq has so much potential. I also recognize that there are different mechanisms by which they can achieve a higher exchange rate. As usual, we can only hope for the best possible outcome.

Edited January 4, 2013 by SWFloridaGuy

[willy1der]

Hey Willy, great to see you. This was from today actually. Just reviewing financials from 2012.

Did you post this earlier? I thought I read something similar to this earlier today and DV is the only site I use.

Have a great day and I'm glad to see the positive attitude. Part of my New Years Resolution is to look at the cup as half full. Life is too short to get in a huff about nothing.

Thanks for the quick response too!

[SWFloridaGuy]

Did you post this earlier? I thought I read something similar to this earlier today and DV is the only site I use.

Have a great day and I'm glad to see the positive attitude. Part of my New Years Resolution is to look at the cup as half full. Life is too short to get in a huff about nothing.

Thanks for the quick response too!

Nope never posted this before but like I said it is a recap of 2012 financials and I agree life is too short to get in a huff about.

Edited January 4, 2013 by SWFloridaGuy

[kjwayne]

Good post and WE need to understand that IRAQ does have the potential to return to there former rate of exchange. BUT, in 1970 I did things then that I can NOT do NOW! Time marches on! Just saying! HA HA !

Edited January 4, 2013 by kjwayne

[SocalDinar]

Thanks for the update SWFG

[magawatt]

I agree with that. If the amount of dinar in circulation decreased, the value of each dinar would increase. Iraq keeps saying they are going to decrease the amount in circulation by removing three zeros from the currency. Problem is, they just talk about it and never actually do it. Big surprise.

I've seen various figures on outstanding dinars in circulation, is there reliable number you recognize?

[motox565]

Thanks SW!

[ronny46]

Just one question, in one paragraph Iraq's proven oil reserves are listed as 115 billion barrels, then in another paragraph it is listed as 143 billion. Which is it? Just curious. Happy New Year to all.

[Sage449]

I personally know that Iraq is working OT on getting its oil up - which causes me to think that Iraq has to RV or whatever sooner over later - and why "hope continues to spring eternal" for me.

[SWFloridaGuy]

Just one question, in one paragraph Iraq's proven oil reserves are listed as 115 billion barrels, then in another paragraph it is listed as 143 billion. Which is it? Just curious. Happy New Year to all.

Hey Ronny, that's a misprint. Should say $143 billion on both. Good spot though.

[gregp]

Great reasearch. Thank you!

[RVPleaseToday]

Oil is simply a red herring in RV talk. They are barely pumping enough to cover their domestic budget. And it's almost the only thing they export.

[SWFloridaGuy]

Hey there RVPlease Today. In my opinion you are underestimating Iraq's wealth.

Excluding the oil sector the economy is expected to grow by at least 9.4%

Read these documents, they apply to Iraq's new international role and possible large currency appreciation options they have:

http://www.bateswhite.com/media/pnc/4/media.444.pdf

http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Dunia-2011-Year-in-Review-Foreign-Commercial-Activity-in-Iraq.pdf?d9c344

http://www.aina.org/news/20120423222258.htm

http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/What_to_do_with_Iraqs_Currency.pdf

http://www.oecd.org/development/perspectivesonglobaldevelopment/47213150.pdf

http://www.law.yale.edu/documents/pdf/Clinics/9_Increasing_the_Macro_Impact_of_Remittances_on_Development.pdf

[txwWrestling]

I hope the 2013 year in review says something like this...Major improvements were made the first part of Jan, mid to late Jan RV! ha GO RV!!!!!

[RVPleaseToday]

Hey, 9.4 percent is a good growth rate. But, not what we're hoping for in an RV.

[SWFloridaGuy]

I hope the 2013 year in review says something like this...Major improvements were made the first part of Jan, mid to late Jan RV! ha GO RV!!!!!

That would certainly be great. I'm a skeptic at heart though and I'll believe it when I see it. I've only been in this a little over 2 years. I can't imagine what some of the true vets here must feel like. Pretty numb to it all by now I'd imagine. Still though, I do think long term we have a good shot at seeing something.

Hey, 9.4 percent is a good growth rate. But, not what we're hoping for in an RV.

Well, that's also not total growth, just an example. Let's not forget that oil is quickly becoming second in Iraq to gold. Early in 2012 there was a large discovery of Gold in eastern Baghdad. The last couple years have produced large quantities of gold atoms in the soil through their vast drilling operations.

They actually raised thousands of tons of dust, which was set aside for the purification and extraction process. This discovery, among others, could turn Iraq into a producer of gold more than oil. It has also will increase the prices of real estate due to the influx of gold job seekers.

I'm not here to prove to you that Iraq will RV. I don't even know how I feel about that. I do think there's a good possibility of one though. I think it could go either way and you know that I can't prove it one way or another and others shouldn't require proof either.

[DocDinar.]

Well, it's already been long term but I agree it always drag out a bit longer I suppose.

[UNEEK]

Thanks for the post SWFG -- you are always right on top of things - I wish I could say that about myself ! - I admittedly have too many "things" all important too -- just the way it is right now - ha ha - too many pots on the stove possibly -- lol I am feeling changes are on the way !! News has been really good today !