Show me even ONE RV in history

[rgsmiths]

I have been asking the question, Is there a case in history where there has been a RV of currency of any major power nation?

Using Google as well as asking a friend who told me about RV of Dinar and my buying 1 million as a result,

I have not found one RV but lots of Devaluations.

Check the For Sale Forum... lots for sale including mine, but No indications of folks buying them, including mine.

I have sent my 1 million back to Dinar Trade for the $810 currently offered.

I hope to get net about $775 after shipping and insurance etc.. paid $1100 for them.. so you can do the math.

Adam Montana is in my best research a fraudulent pumper of a fraudulent get rich quick proposal that the RV will happen with the Dinar, for the 1st time in the history of the world.

Beware... and be warned... This is not an investment, this is a rip-off.

*********

The RV of the Dinar is not going to ever happen! It will devalue for sure, that is the incentive, just like it is for the USA financial handlers.. borrow and spend is the mantra today and forever...

The result has been and will be again, worthless currency...

I hope this helps someone else save at least some of the loss that is coming to everyone else who bought in to this lie like me with the hope that it might be possible!

END of my post is here anything added after this done by the managers of the site, not me

[desimo]

Tell that to those who have made millions off of Japan and Germany

[blaineage]

Well we are all big boys and girls coming into this with our eyes wide open. Nobody should buy more than they can afford to lose. People make and lose money all sorts of ways, some even crazier than this. I was gonna neg ya, but whats the point. Be well.

[ssmith]

Everyone who has been involved with this investment for years; knows its risky coming in.. don"t need to show you anything...

[nemesis760]

I have been asking the question, Is there a case in history where there has been a RV of currency of any major power nation?

Using Google as well as asking a friend who told me about RV of Dinar and my buying 1 million as a result,

I have not found one RV but lots of Devaluations.

Check the For Sale Forum... lots for sale including mine, but No indications of folks buying them, including mine.

I have sent my 1 million back to Dinar Trade for the $810 currently offered.

I hope to get net about $775 after shipping and insurance etc.. paid $1100 for them.. so you can do the math.

Adam Montana is in my best research a fraudulent pumper of a fraudulent get rich quick proposal that the RV will happen with the Dinar, for the 1st time in the history of the world.

Beware... and be warned... This is not an investment, this is a rip-off.

**********

The RV of the Dinar is not going to ever happen! It will devalue for sure, that is the incentive, just like it is for the USA financial handlers.. borrow and spend is the mantra today and forever...

The result has been and will be again, worthless currency...

I hope this helps someone else save at least some of the loss that is coming to everyone else who bought in to this lie like me with the hope that it might be possible!

END of my post is here anything added after this done by the managers of the site, not me

If China only allowed its currency to appreciate, the global economy would rebalance and stabilise – or so the argument goes. This column studies the historical record of large exchange-rate revaluations. It supports the idea that currency appreciations have an impact on the current account but argues that this can come at a cost – the reduction in exports risks putting the brakes on global growth.

Over the past decade, several emerging market economies – China in particular – have run substantial and persistent current-account surpluses. Loose monetary policy in the US could now result in higher domestic inflation within these emerging economies and lead to the sort of real currency appreciation that many countries want to avoid (Bergsten 2010 and Huang 2010).

It is well known that countries must choose between capital mobility, monetary policy autonomy, and exchange-rate stability but cannot pursue all three objectives at the same time. Clearly, China’s authorities are increasingly forced to consider currency appreciation as they fear the social ramifications of rising prices. From a global perspective, current-account imbalances and reserve accumulation may have contributed to the mispricing of risk and helped create the macroeconomic backdrop for the recent financial crisis. Currency appreciations in surplus countries could be a policy tool in reducing imbalances (Ferguson and Schularick 2011).

Yet currency appreciation remains a controversial policy choice among economists. In recent research (Kappler et al. 2011), we use a large cross-country dataset covering almost 50 years of international economic history between 1960 and 2008 to study the empirical record of large exchange-rate appreciation and revaluation episodes. Some of these episodes are regularly referred to in the debate about global rebalancing in the wake of the recent financial crisis, e.g. in Germany and in Japan.1

The main points of disagreement about the effects of exchange-rate changes on the macroeconomy relate to two central issues.

First, how effective would currency revaluation be in reducing current-account surpluses in Asia and deficits in the US? Unless structural saving and investment determinants change, there will be no change in current-account imbalances (Qiao 2007).

Second, is there reason to believe that appreciation would come with the negative side effect of reducing growth in developing countries? Appreciation might put a successful export-led growth model at risk. This model was centred on a competitive real exchange rate and positive externalities from investment in the tradable goods sector. Some economists fear that exchange-rate adjustment might be all too effective – but mainly in reducing the growth rate of the Chinese as well as other developing economies because China has become a locomotive for developing country growth in the 2000s (Garroway et al. 2010).

Digging up the historical evidence

While these questions open up a number of different conceptual issues, they are to some degree open to a joint empirical treatment. We define large exchange-rate events as a 10% (or larger) appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate over a two-year window (or less), leading to sustained real effective appreciation of the same magnitude, sustained in real terms over at least five years.

From 1960, we identify 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations and revaluations in a sample of 128 countries of developing and advanced economies. Studying the institutional context of each individual episode in detail, we find 14 cases of appreciation shocks that occurred not as a result of discretionary policy action, but were linked to the appreciation of the anchor currency under pegged exchange rates. These cases represent exogenous appreciation shocks that can be used to estimate the macroeconomic impact of large appreciations and assess the robustness of estimates based on a wider definition of appreciation and revaluation events.

We use a dummy-augmented autoregressive panel model (as in Cerra and Saxena 2008) to show that such large appreciations episodes have strong macroeconomic effects. The estimated effects of appreciation shocks on key macroeconomic variables are shown in the appendix. Four key stylised facts emerge that may well prove useful in the ongoing debate about the role of exchange-rate adjustment for global rebalancing.

First, the current-account balance typically falls strongly in response to large exchange-rate revaluations. Three years after the revaluation, the current account balance deteriorates by about 3 percentage points relative to GDP. This is due to a reduction in aggregate savings without a concomitant fall in investment. The effect on the current-account balance is statistically significant and robust to variation in the country sample and the definition of appreciation events.

Second, the effects on output seem limited. The point estimates suggest a negative effect of output growth, albeit of relatively small magnitude. On average, the aggregate level effect on output amounts to about 1% after six years. However, the output effects are statistically not significant.

Third, while aggregate output is not strongly affected, export growth falls significantly after appreciation shocks. Import growth remains by and large unchanged resulting in the observed deterioration in external balances. As aggregate economic growth is much less affected, these results point to a positive domestic demand response following appreciation episodes.

Fourth, the effects seem to be more pronounced in developing countries. The sensitivity of the current-account balance to revaluation shocks is higher. The effect reaches almost 4 percentage points of GDP after three years and is statistically significant. But also the potentially negative effects on output are larger, pointing to a loss in output of 2% over 10 years, albeit with wide confidence intervals.

Conclusion

The historical record of large exchange-rate revaluations that we have studied lends support to the idea that they have an impact on the current account as they lead to marked changes of savings and investment within countries. Appreciation shocks impact external balances, but this effect potentially comes at the cost of a reduction of dynamism in exports. While the domestic economy seems to pick up some of the external slack, leaving overall growth relatively unaffected, the prospect of sharp decelerations in export growth will remain a concern for policymakers and warrants careful attention especially in the context of developing countries.

[sweet C]

BEWARE of those who have given up on their dream because their next move is to come after yours....

[BelievingInTheBest]

Thanks for trying to "save" us rgsmiths. I am one who appreciates your caring heart. Even so, Billy Joel might have said it best when he sang that famous song, "You may be right".

don't try to save me

"You may be wrong for all I know, but you may be right"

If you are correct and I lose a few $, then that is what happens. I am OK with that as I have budgeted it into my life and investments can go south. It is a calculated business risk on my part. But if you are wrong, which I believe you are, your "saving" message could be more harmful than it is good.

Just my 2 cents here.

Adam, I sincerely appreciate and enjoy the service you and those on this forum provide.

Edited December 6, 2012 by BelievingInTheBest

[Deborah Layne]

Why are you even here? I don't get it. Do you have IQD? If you do, then you're an incredibly irritating hypocrite. If not - don't you have something better to do?

[rgsmiths]

per statement:

Tell that to those who have made millions off of Japan and Germany

Can you show that the Japanese or German currency put in circulation after the wars had a major Revaluation up?

I is my understanding from all accounts, a new currency was issued after the wars, without any dramatic RV as characterized by the lies about an RV of the Dinar.

Per others posting so far:

Show me with links any major nation revaluing the currency issued after the war in a dramatic way...

There are many instances of Devaluation down, none I can find of Revaluation up.

Check out the links offered, they are valid and may help you as they did me, change my mind and get me out without loosing all my funds.

Currencies do change in value to a market valuation world wide but only gradually, and you may have a gradual increase if you want to wait it out.

Dinar may be worth more in the future, but not for a long time, years from now.

[truthful1]

We are all looking for a world shift in currency policy. ee are looking for something thats never happened, but thats why its speculation.

Its a high risk, hopefully high reward type scenario. we are looking for iraq to become a big world player. which may be a bigger pipe dream than the currency. iraq has always had internal problems and fighting. but if, they get it together, your talking about a country that could ten fold gdp in just a few years. housing, rebuilding infrastructure, communications and technology. of course...iraq has to be willing to accept that style of culture.....but if they do....big possibilities.

and in the u.s., we have stimulus still stagnating the true reality of our economy to give a false sense of consumer confidence. i dont trust american stocks....and definitely have no faith in the u.s dollar and the inevitable inflatationthat will soon set in

Edited December 6, 2012 by truthful1

[krome2ez]

Whaaa!

You had $1100 invested?

I lost more than that in my 401k after the economy went in the tank.

Because of DinarVets,

we are all well informed to the potential of the Dinar,

both good and bad.

Adam has never once pumped buying any Dinar,

but rather has cautioned numerous times to only invest

what you can afford to loose.

Good luck to you.

But I bet that the $775 that you get back,

will be spent and gone before the end of the year,

with absolutely nothing to show for it.

[quadkidd1]

Why is this in the news section?

Oughta be in file 13..........

Quad B)/>

[geman]

Mr Montana,

please don't take what is said to heart, I owned my dinar long before I found your sight and you have been nothing but a stand up guy. never promising anything and always trying too keep people grounded. So for that I thank you.

sincerely, Greg M

[SWFloridaGuy]

There are many instances of large RVs in history. They are called large currency appreciation shocks. Previously there have been 14 episodes where a country's real and nominal effective exchange rate appreciated by 10% or more without discretionary adjustments of the parity by the government (over a two-year window or less), leading to sustained real effective appreciation.

Since 1960 there have been 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations. If you solely look at historic large currency appreciations, even a 20% increase, runs the risk of having negative long term effects. A 100,000% increase is not even something regarded as possible by most economists but then again, that's what makes this opportunity in Iraq a unique situation.

The macroeconomic effects of "appreciation shocks" differ between developed and developing countries. Studies have shown that the immediate output response of large RVs is positive, i.e. output growth accelerates, but they turn negative after about three years.

For years now economists have been studying ways to raise the value of the IQD and sustain that growth as well. If they were planning a straight redenomination with no significant rate increase they would have never spent this much time studying the long term effects, in-country (and out) security issues, counterfeiting, dedollarization and how to institute a market-based economy where they are respected as a borrow in the eyes of global capital markets. This is just my opinion of course and I will never be able to prove that a straight RD is not their plan. Below is a list of former large currency appreciation shocks.

Australia*

1971

1973

10.20%

10.30%

After the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, the depreciation of the US dollar led to the appreciation of the Australian dollar which was pegged to the British pound.

Sweden*

1977

1979

10.80%

11.30%

From 1977 to 1991, the Krona was pegged to a trade-weighted basket of foreign currencies. The appreciation of European currencies indirectly triggered the appreciation of the Krona on a nominal and real effective basis.

Ireland*

1978

1980

12.90%

22.00%

Ireland joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1979. The appreciation of European currencies in the late 1970s triggered appreciation on a trade-weighted basis.

Malaysia*

1978

1980

20.30%

16.50%

From September 1976 to the end of 1984, the Malaysian National Bank stabilised the exchange rate against the Singapore dollar. The rise in the Singapore dollar triggered the appreciation of the currency.

Algeria*

1980

1982

28.00%

The exchange rate of the Algerian dinar was pegged to a basket of currencies with a large U.S. dollar weight. Dollar strength during the early 1980s led to a strong appreciation of the dinar on a trade-weighted basis.

Singapore*

1980

1982

12.40%

From 1973 to 1985, Singapore pegged the value of Singapore Dollar against a basket of currencies with a large US dollar weight. The trade-weighted appreciation resulted from dollar strength.

Belize*

1981

1983

16.00%

The Belizean currency was pegged to the US dollar. The appreciation was triggered by dollar strength at the beginning of the 1980s.

Algeria*

1982

1984

11.70%

The appreciation of the U.S. dollar during the first half of the 1980s led to a strong rise in the real value of the Algerian dinar on a trade-weighted basis relative to European trading partners.

Ivory Coast*

1983

1985

26.40%

The currency appreciated on a trade-weighted basis as a consequence of the appreciation of the anchor currency (French Franc) against the US Dollar.

Cameroon*

1984

1986

21.20%

The currency appreciated on a trade-weighted basis as a consequence of the appreciation of the anchor currency (French Franc) against the US Dollar.

12-6-12 Spain*

1986

1988

19.00%

The peseta was managed vis-à-vis to other ERM currencies whose appreciation against the dollar, triggered appreciation on a trade-weighted basis.

Singapore*

1988

1990

17.00%

Trade-weighted appreciation as a function of strength of the main anchor currency.

Spain*

1988

1990

11.20%

Appreciation was triggered by the appreciation of European currencies against the dollar in the late 1980s.

Germany

1968

1970

12.90%

Under the Bretton Woods system, the rate of the DM was amended in October 1969. The DM was revalued.

Japan

1970

1972

24.00%

The exchange rate of the yen was maintained at Yen 360 per USD from 1949 to 1971. After the United States devalued, the Yen was revalued to 308 per USD.

Switzerland

1971

1973

20.60%

After the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the Swiss franc was revalued twice in 1971.

Switzerland

1974

1976

13.00%

The Swiss National Bank de facto managed a sustained exchange rate appreciation against dollar and DM.

Japan

1975

1977

20.90%

The Bank of Japan managed the appreciation of the yen against the dollar.

Romania

1980

1982

35.40%

At the beginning of the 1980s, several step appreciations of the commercial exchange rate were taken.

Taiwan

1986

1988

11.40%

In 1987, the exchange rate regime was changed towards a more market determined rate, leading to an appreciation on a trade-weighted basis.

Chile

1992

1994

15.00%

The central bank revalued the ‚central parity

Colombia

2004

2006

23.00%

The central bank revalued the ‚central parity‛ of the currency.

[cbs71]

Poof Be Gone!

[Deborah Layne]

Way to go, SWFG!

Most excellent. Thank you very much

[krome2ez]

Way to go, SWFG! :)/>

Most excellent. Thank you very much :)/>

I concur.

[Shabibilicious]

Natural History RV is the best I could come up with. Sorry.

GO RV, then BV

[HisHands]

Ditto! Way to go SWFG!

[C.H.]

I have been asking the question, Is there a case in history where there has been a RV of currency of any major power nation?

Using Google as well as asking a friend who told me about RV of Dinar and my buying 1 million as a result,

I have not found one RV but lots of Devaluations.

Check the For Sale Forum... lots for sale including mine, but No indications of folks buying them, including mine.

I have sent my 1 million back to Dinar Trade for the $810 currently offered.

I hope to get net about $775 after shipping and insurance etc.. paid $1100 for them.. so you can do the math.

Adam Montana is in my best research a fraudulent pumper of a fraudulent get rich quick proposal that the RV will happen with the Dinar, for the 1st time in the history of the world.

Beware... and be warned... This is not an investment, this is a rip-off.

*************

The RV of the Dinar is not going to ever happen! It will devalue for sure, that is the incentive, just like it is for the USA financial handlers.. borrow and spend is the mantra today and forever...

The result has been and will be again, worthless currency...

I hope this helps someone else save at least some of the loss that is coming to everyone else who bought in to this lie like me with the hope that it might be possible!

END of my post is here anything added after this done by the managers of the site, not me

Obviously you have failed in your research as the Kuwaiti Dinar was revalued many years ago. Failed comments such as yours have no bearing to the actual truth of what is really going on in Iraq and this investment today.

[Flamtap]

Honestly you sound just like the people that go to a christian site or room and try to create a disturbance, and for one reason only.....to get your kicks. There is only one thing for you to do.....actually 2

1. Sell your Dinar at whatever rate you can get

2. Delete your account here at this site (seeing as how after you sell your dinar there will be no more reason for you to come here to this or any other site that pertains to the Dinar........

I'm not Hating.....I'm just saying!

[yota691]

I say with a post like that you be shown the Door.. and as the song goes don't come back no more no more no more, hit the road jack.. JMO

[SocalDinar]

sorry to hear that you feel this way.

No time to give up now unless you need the money desperately

Thanks SWFG

I am going to save your post

[rgsmiths]

reply to SWFloridaGuy

You made my case precisely when you said:

Since 1960 there have been 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations.

If you solely look at historic large currency appreciations, even a 20% increase, runs the risk of having negative long term effects.

A 100,000% increase is not even something regarded as possible by most economists

but then again, that's what makes this opportunity in Iraq a unique situation.

(emphasis mine)

I would add the fact that even a 100% increase has never happened.

Think about it folks, a 20% best case noted by SWF for Germany, is not a Major RV like being hyped for the RV of the Dinar.

And it took how many years after the war ended for these "large nominal and real appreciations" against a pegged currency to occur?

Do the math, do you want to wait out against inflation those kinds of appreciation? I certainly do not!

Small revalues happen with pegged currencies, as noted by SWF, all are less than 30%,

But no country has printed lower denominations in the same series of currencies

and then revalued the same currency while pulling higher denominations out of circulation

and making millions of people overnight millionaires has never happened before in history.

That is a fact!

NOTE to those saying another lie by using the Kuwaiti Dinar as an example of an Iraq Dinar RV.

The Kuwaiti Dinar did revalue back to previous to war values, but it happened almost overnight, and

I don't know of anyone who benefited because there was no selling of the currency to the public.

There may have been a few insiders who benefited, but none like we who are involved with the Iraq Dinar.

*************

These are only two of many urls that have info about the lies being told about the "coming" RV of the Dinar.

Use Google or any search engine, the facts are not hard to find.

[bigwave]

Dinarck is that you?