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Article written October 2008 for those who have forgotten... Raymond C. Scheppach couldn't have been more right. After reading, ask yourself could anyone have done anything differently? My link

October 10, 2008

Commentary: It could get worse before it gets better

By Raymond C. Scheppach, Commentary

Last December many states began to see declines in revenues as a result of the slowing economy. The August and September employment reports, which showed losses of 85,000 and 157,000 jobs, respectively, along with an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.1 percent, marked a dramatic acceleration in the downward revenue trend. Until that time, it was primarily decreasing sales and corporate taxes dragging down state coffers. With unemployment increasing, states now must contend with declines in income taxes as well. And given recent trends, the state fiscal situation will likely get even worse.

Loss of liquidity and rising unemployment

The liquidity crisis that peaked in September with the bankruptcy and consolidation of several investment and commercial banks has exacerbated the state fiscal decline in two respects. First, several states such as New Mexico and California were finding it difficult to borrow in the short-term credit market to finance expenditures until their monthly revenues were realized. Where credit was available, the interest rate had jumped-for example, from 1.8 percent to 5.15 percent just last week. In addition, a number of states now are unable to float long-run bonds to finance infrastructure such as highways, bridges and schools. This list includes Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts and New Mexico. Second, the liquidity crisis has severely impacted the private sector, particularly small businesses that often need short-run financing to meet payrolls. This lack of credit has forced more layoffs and unemployment, and thus, state income-tax revenues are now declining more rapidly.

Future risks

Now that Congress has passed and President Bush has signed the $700 billion liquidity package, some credit should start flowing again, which should increase states' access to credit markets. Nevertheless, most economic forecasters believe that the U.S. economy is already in a recession and that it will continue at least through the second quarter of 2009 and possibly longer. The economy could well lose 200,000 jobs per month over the next several months, with unemployment peaking at between 7.5 percent and 8 percent. This means that states will continue to have major fiscal problems for at least two more years.

The first year will be because the economy likely will be in recession for another 9 to 12 months. The second year, we know from experience, will be because states feel the greatest impact on their budgets the year after a recession ends. This is primarily attributable to growth in Medicaid, the state-federal health-care program for the poorest Americans. Medicaid rolls swell as more individuals become unemployed and lose their health insurance. Given that Medicaid is 23 percent of the average state's budget, these costs are significant. The combination of losses in tax revenue and major increases in Medicaid will require states to make significant cuts in other programs, including elementary and secondary education as well as higher education. It also will lead some states to increase taxes to meet their balanced budget requirements.

As if that weren't enough, several risks could make the current situation much worse for states:

1. The value of housing still needs to fall nationally another 5 percent to 10 percent to be affordable relative to the average income. This, coupled with the fact that large numbers of subprime mortgages will trigger to higher rates over the next 18 months, will increase the number of defaults and put another major drag on the economy.

2. The $700 billion liquidity package just enacted will help only the residential mortgage problem. It does little to help credit card, automobile, student aid and commercial property bad debt. Thus, Congress will need to take additional action to recapitalize the banking industry. Until that happens, liquidity may continue to be a problem.

3. The world economy is slowing dramatically. Coupled with the increase in the value of the dollar, this slowdown will reduce U.S. exports, which have been one of the bright spots in the U.S. economy lately.

The bottom line is that states are facing a very difficult fiscal outlook over the next two to three years. This economic downturn will likely be longer and more severe than any states have experienced since the downturn of 1982-1983, when unemployment hit double-digit levels. In short, the fiscal situation for states could get really ugly.

Raymond C. Scheppach, Ph.D., is the executive director of the National Governors Association.

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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

"Likely to Get Worse before It Gets Better"

What about the rest of the economy? Employment is falling. So are housing prices. The bulk of forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey foresee home prices declining into 2009; nearly one in eight say they won't touch bottom until 2010.

Prices of food and energy are rising. And a credit crunch is sure to make it tougher than usual for American consumers to borrow to keep spending. ...

Offsetting that drag on the economy is the vigor of U.S. exports. And, of course, the impact of the interest-rate cuts the Fed already has made and the checks Mr. Bush and Congress decided to send to most American families this spring has yet to be fully felt. ...

Nevertheless, the economy where most Americans live and work -- that is, off Wall Street -- looks likely to get worse before it gets better.

My link

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Article written October 2008 for those who have forgotten... Raymond C. Scheppach couldn't have been more right. After reading, ask yourself could anyone have done anything differently? My link

October 10, 2008

Commentary: It could get worse before it gets better

By Raymond C. Scheppach, Commentary

Last December many states began to see declines in revenues as a result of the slowing economy. The August and September employment reports, which showed losses of 85,000 and 157,000 jobs, respectively, along with an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.1 percent, marked a dramatic acceleration in the downward revenue trend. Until that time, it was primarily decreasing sales and corporate taxes dragging down state coffers. With unemployment increasing, states now must contend with declines in income taxes as well. And given recent trends, the state fiscal situation will likely get even worse.

Loss of liquidity and rising unemployment

The liquidity crisis that peaked in September with the bankruptcy and consolidation of several investment and commercial banks has exacerbated the state fiscal decline in two respects. First, several states such as New Mexico and California were finding it difficult to borrow in the short-term credit market to finance expenditures until their monthly revenues were realized. Where credit was available, the interest rate had jumped-for example, from 1.8 percent to 5.15 percent just last week. In addition, a number of states now are unable to float long-run bonds to finance infrastructure such as highways, bridges and schools. This list includes Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts and New Mexico. Second, the liquidity crisis has severely impacted the private sector, particularly small businesses that often need short-run financing to meet payrolls. This lack of credit has forced more layoffs and unemployment, and thus, state income-tax revenues are now declining more rapidly.

Future risks

Now that Congress has passed and President Bush has signed the $700 billion liquidity package, some credit should start flowing again, which should increase states' access to credit markets. Nevertheless, most economic forecasters believe that the U.S. economy is already in a recession and that it will continue at least through the second quarter of 2009 and possibly longer. The economy could well lose 200,000 jobs per month over the next several months, with unemployment peaking at between 7.5 percent and 8 percent. This means that states will continue to have major fiscal problems for at least two more years.

The first year will be because the economy likely will be in recession for another 9 to 12 months. The second year, we know from experience, will be because states feel the greatest impact on their budgets the year after a recession ends. This is primarily attributable to growth in Medicaid, the state-federal health-care program for the poorest Americans. Medicaid rolls swell as more individuals become unemployed and lose their health insurance. Given that Medicaid is 23 percent of the average state's budget, these costs are significant. The combination of losses in tax revenue and major increases in Medicaid will require states to make significant cuts in other programs, including elementary and secondary education as well as higher education. It also will lead some states to increase taxes to meet their balanced budget requirements.

As if that weren't enough, several risks could make the current situation much worse for states:

1. The value of housing still needs to fall nationally another 5 percent to 10 percent to be affordable relative to the average income. This, coupled with the fact that large numbers of subprime mortgages will trigger to higher rates over the next 18 months, will increase the number of defaults and put another major drag on the economy.

2. The $700 billion liquidity package just enacted will help only the residential mortgage problem. It does little to help credit card, automobile, student aid and commercial property bad debt. Thus, Congress will need to take additional action to recapitalize the banking industry. Until that happens, liquidity may continue to be a problem.

3. The world economy is slowing dramatically. Coupled with the increase in the value of the dollar, this slowdown will reduce U.S. exports, which have been one of the bright spots in the U.S. economy lately.

The bottom line is that states are facing a very difficult fiscal outlook over the next two to three years. This economic downturn will likely be longer and more severe than any states have experienced since the downturn of 1982-1983, when unemployment hit double-digit levels. In short, the fiscal situation for states could get really ugly.

Raymond C. Scheppach, Ph.D., is the executive director of the National Governors Association.

Are you trying to say this excuses Obamas lack of ability to carry out the duties as president? Are you saying this excuses Benghazi or Fast and Furious? Does this excuse his appointment of muslim czars and bypassing our constitutional process? Does this excuse his lying to the American people repeatedly? Does this excuse his families burning 20 million dollars for family vacations not counting his golf outings? Does this excuse his probable role in selling guns to Muslim Brotherhood to overthrow nations all over the Middle East? Does this excuse his alienation of our allies and apologizing for our nations exceptionalism all over the planet? Does this excuse his health care bill to giver health care to the world? While Americans close down companies one after another due to overtaxation? Does this excuse his evident lack of fiscal accountability and disregard for our nations economic future? Should we go on and on? I can think of no good reason for anyone to give this experiment another four years. It is an obvious failure!

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Are you trying to say this excuses Obamas lack of ability to carry out the duties as president? Are you saying this excuses Benghazi or Fast and Furious? Does this excuse his appointment of muslim czars and bypassing our constitutional process? Does this excuse his lying to the American people repeatedly? Does this excuse his families burning 20 million dollars for family vacations not counting his golf outings? Does this excuse his probable role in selling guns to Muslim Brotherhood to overthrow nations all over the Middle East? Does this excuse his alienation of our allies and apologizing for our nations exceptionalism all over the planet? Does this excuse his health care bill to giver health care to the world? While Americans close down companies one after another due to overtaxation? Does this excuse his evident lack of fiscal accountability and disregard for our nations economic future? Should we go on and on? I can think of no good reason for anyone to give this experiment another four years. It is an obvious failure!

Let's talk about the facts of a struggling economy and the turnaround of the economy. I won't entertain the exaggerations of the rumor mills, that's another thread!

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Simple,while I don't disagree with your premise,it still does'nt matter. The commander in chief to be, knew what he was walking into and stated countless times how he was going to be the savoir of our country. He has failed to deliver and its as simple as that. He stuck his neck out and I commend him for trying, but trying without succeeding don't cut it. He now has laid out the exact same promises for the next four years........now ask yourself does that make sense? What is the definition of insanity.....................thats exactly what could be stated about the voters if re-elect a known & proven failure. Regardless of circumstance the proofs in pudding-peace

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Simple,while I don't disagree with your premise,it still does'nt matter. The commander in chief to be, knew what he was walking into and stated countless times how he was going to be the savoir of our country. He has failed to deliver and its as simple as that. He stuck his neck out and I commend him for trying, but trying without succeeding don't cut it. He now has laid out the exact same promises for the next four years........now ask yourself does that make sense? What is the definition of insanity.....................thats exactly what could be stated about the voters if re-elect a known & proven failure. Regardless of circumstance the proofs in pudding-peace

If we're under the assumption that the economy is not getting better I would agree with you. Several economist, and Romney, have admitted the economy and manufacturing is moving again. Along with the fact that businesses are hiring consistently, although not very fast, this is what the country needs. With the predictions from 2008, the timing is as suggested. His plans just may be working Caz, it was a deep hole.

Time for these guys to stop making 'excuses' for failure.

Could someone else have turned around the Economy?

Of course.

What guys? The article is from October 2008.... wasn't excuses but predictions.

Choose your own article to remind you of the economy: Google

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If we're under the assumption that the economy is not getting better I would agree with you. Several economist, and Romney, have admitted the economy and manufacturing is moving again. Along with the fact that businesses are hiring consistently, although not very fast, this is what the country needs. With the predictions from 2008, the timing is as suggested. His plans just may be working Caz, it was a deep hole.

What guys?

Lets see....You, O'blah, Clinton....No reasons, just excuses.

Your article and arguments are simply the latest excuses.

The Economy is decidedly not getting better....Its in fact getting worse.

There was no excuse for the Economy to continue to be as poor as it is.

Change is needed badly, fortunately its right around the corner.

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If we're under the assumption that the economy is not getting better I would agree with you. Several economist, and Romney, have admitted the economy and manufacturing is moving again. Along with the fact that businesses are hiring consistently, although not very fast, this is what the country needs. With the predictions from 2008, the timing is as suggested. His plans just may be working Caz, it was a deep hole.

What guys? The article is from October 2008.... wasn't excuses but predictions.

Choose your own article to remind you of the economy: Google

Simple, I respect your support for the Pres. But what i'm talking about is the specific promises he made in regards to unemployment,the deficit, balancing the budget. He promised to get unemployment to a specific number(sorry i don't have it in front of me) and failed. He promised to cut the deficit and failed. And he promised to balance the budget and he failed. He also said he was the man to be able to bridge the division not only on the hill but also accross this country............and he failed. Will Romney be able to do any of the above,maybe,maybe not. But the fact is Obama did'nt and can't-Peace

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Simple, I respect your support for the Pres. But what i'm talking about is the specific promises he made in regards to unemployment,the deficit, balancing the budget. He promised to get unemployment to a specific number(sorry i don't have it in front of me) and failed. He promised to cut the deficit and failed. And he promised to balance the budget and he failed. He also said he was the man to be able to bridge the division not only on the hill but also accross this country............and he failed. Will Romney be able to do any of the above,maybe,maybe not. But the fact is Obama did'nt and can't-Peace

I understand your disappointment on those promises. Were they achievable, no way! Was he optimistic or just running for office, perhaps a little of both. The facts are the economy is moving again and must continue. As predicted, would take awhile.

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Here comes the Independents! Read More

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed President Barack Obama for re-election, saying the president has gained “some important victories on issues that will help define our future,” including climate change, health care, education and *** rights.

Bloomberg, a political independent who is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, contrasted Obama’s support for abortion rights and same- sex marriage with Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s opposition. Bloomberg also said Romney isn’t sufficiently concerned about climate change.

“I want our president to place scientific evidence and risk management above electoral politics,” Bloomberg wrote.

He described Romney as “a good and decent man” who would bring “valuable business experience” to the White House. He said Romney has taken “sensible positions” in the past on issues such as immigration, illegal guns and abortion rights and has “reversed course on all of them” in his presidential campaign.

Earlier Stances

“If the 1994 or 2003 version of Mitt Romney were running for president, I may well have voted for him because, like so many other independents, I have found the past four years to be, in a word, disappointing,” Bloomberg wrote.

Bloomberg Endorses Obama, Citing Climate Change

By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ

Published: November 1, 2012 399 Comments

In a surprise announcement, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said Thursday that Hurricane Sandy had reshaped his thinking about the presidential campaign and that as a result he was endorsing President Obama.

Mr. Bloomberg, a political independent in his third term leading New York City, has been sharply critical of both Mr. Obama, a Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the president’s Republican rival, saying that both men have failed to candidly confront the problems afflicting the nation. But he said he had decided over the past several days that Mr. Obama was the best candidate to tackle the global climate change that the mayor believes contributed to the violent storm, which took the lives of at least 38 New Yorkers and caused billions of dollars in damage.

“The devastation that Hurricane Sandy brought to New York City and much of the Northeast — in lost lives, lost homes and lost business — brought the stakes of next Tuesday’s presidential election into sharp relief,” Mr. Bloomberg wrote in an editorial for Bloomberg View.

“Our climate is changing,” he wrote. “And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it may be — given the devastation it is wreaking — should be enough to compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.”

Mr. Bloomberg’s announcement is another indication that Hurricane Sandy has influenced the presidential campaign. The storm, and the destruction it left in its wake, has dominated news coverage, transfixing the nation and prompting the candidates to halt their campaigning briefly.

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I understand your disappointment on those promises. Were they achievable, no way! Was he optimistic or just running for office, perhaps a little of both. The facts are the economy is moving again and must continue. As predicted, would take awhile.

Or was he way over his head and nary a clue as to how to achieve said promises. A man with virtually no experience making promises that most understood and agreed as non-attainable is a recipe for disaster. The biggest problem he faced and to this day still faces was getting people together,his bravado in stating he was the man that could accomplish that is what rubbed many including me the wrong way. If he had been able to do that I think many things could have been accomplished,and please don't just blame the GOP. Neither side was really willing to compromise and that falls directly on the POTUS lap.-Peace

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Or was he way over his head and nary a clue as to how to achieve said promises. A man with virtually no experience making promises that most understood and agreed as non-attainable is a recipe for disaster. The biggest problem he faced and to this day still faces was getting people together,his bravado in stating he was the man that could accomplish that is what rubbed many including me the wrong way. If he had been able to do that I think many things could have been accomplished,and please don't just blame the GOP. Neither side was really willing to compromise and that falls directly on the POTUS lap.-Peace

I follow you!

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This economists and many others are predicting economic collapse happening soon due to this joke of a president and his economic plan. :angry: Worst economic performance ever by by a U.S president . Almost 5 trillion and counting and not a clue how to fix i t , other than hiring women teachers . <_< Don't know about you situation but when a working man doesn't live up to his job duties he's fired. They don't give him another 4 years. :lol:

28digg A++A+A

Jim Rogers: It's Going To Get Really "Bad After The Next Election"

Money Morning

By Terry Weiss, Money Morning

In a riveting interview on CNBC, legendary investor Jim Rogers warned Americans to prepare for "Financial Armageddon," saying he fully expects the economy to implode after the U.S. election.

Rogers, who for years has been an outspoken critic of the Feds policies of "Quantitative Easing," says the world is "drowning in too much debt." He put the blame squarely on U.S. and European governments for abusing their "license to print money." In the U.S. alone, the national debt has surged to nearly $16 trillion, that's more than $50,000 for every American man, woman and child.

"[They] need to stop spending money they don't have," Rogers said. "The solution to too much debt is not more debt... What would make me very excited is if a few people [in the government] went bankrupt..." Rogers added.

Rogers also charged Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel with promoting dangerous policies that create the illusion the economy is stable... but are really only intended to buy time before their upcoming elections.

Do these charts and graphs prove that the Obama Administration’s current economic path is headed for disaster?

"Mrs. Merkle has an election next year," Rogers said. "Mr. Obama has an election in November. The Americans and the Germans - they want to do everything they can to hold the world up until after the next election."

"It's going to be bad after the next election."

How bad? Worse than Rogers predicts, according to a new investigation.

In a newly released documentary that went viral last month, a team of influential economic experts say they have discovered a "frightening pattern" they believe points to a massive economic catastrophe unlike anything ever seen in the history of the world.

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Main article was to remind folks of the conditions prior to 2009. Also a reminder that the economy had to go through its pains before it could get better. Economist, and Romney, have repeatedly said yes, the economy is getting better and manufacturing is returning. Bloomberg's endorsement is evident that we're on track.

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Thats a new one on me about romney . <_< I do respect your posts. But i have not found any area of economic growth in this country other than big government. :unsure: Nor does alot of leading economists in this country. Almost 16 trillion and counting and a president who has no idea how to fix it.

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Thats a new one on me about romney . <_< I do respect your posts. But i have not found any area of economic growth in this country other than big government. :unsure: Nor does alot of leading economists in this country. Almost 16 trillion and counting and a president who has no idea how to fix it.

Search "romney economy getting better"... Also, listen to his stomp speeches.

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Main article was to remind folks of the conditions prior to 2009. Also a reminder that the economy had to go through its pains before it could get better. Economist, and Romney, have repeatedly said yes, the economy is getting better and manufacturing is returning. Bloomberg's endorsement is evident that we're on track.

Sorry, bloomberg's endorsement is only evidence of his ignorance. that guy thinks that limiting drinks to 16 ounces will, of and by itself, stop obesity in NY. he's also come out saying that Sandy is proof of global warming... again, he's wrong... Storms like Sandy have hit NY since before man inhabited NY

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SIMPLE!!! YOU SIR (or MA'AM) ARE AWESOME!!!! Love the way you seem to silence with facts instead of arguing against the exagerrated truths of the far right! :twothumbs::bravo:

Thanks OrDinarE! They can't argue the facts of where we were in 2008 and how deep. They pretty much avoid this thread. Great thing about the article, no one blames it on Bush. Just simple facts of history!

:twothumbs:

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Dont feel you're right because we ignore you ;)

Bloomberg (Blooming idiot) isnt worth commenting on

except to say, he's almost as dumb as Biden....He's definitely

on a par with Schumer, Pelosi, & Reid

Not about being right, about the economy ditch and how long it would take to climb out. We still won't know the new normal for a few more years.

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