my first and only prediction

[wolfman]

This will be my only prediction, then i will leave it to the gurus. I think romney wins in nov, then, within a fairly short time, the value of the dollar begins to climb. Once the value is high enough then the rv will happen.

Why would iraq care to rv against a dollar of questionable value?

[cris]

This will be my only prediction, then i will leave it to the gurus. I think romney wins in nov, then, within a fairly short time, the value of the dollar begins to climb. Once the value is high enough then the rv will happen.

Why would iraq care to rv against a dollar of questionable value?

Im positive you're right about the Romney & the dollar....Not sure

about the Dinar, I'll keep my fingers crossed on that one.

[slb]

Sounds good to me.

[Chartman17]

Not a chance. The Pres. is the Pres. and that won't change.

And, if you are right and Romney gets in...I'm moving to New Zealand.

Chartman17

[coyote]

Chart an you are so wrong in your thinking, I'm not even going to start

[WallyWeaver]

Okay, thanks for the prediction.

I guess I'm going to be a party pooper here, though, and ask a question:

What makes you think the USD will rise if Romney wins?

1. The Fed is currently printing at a pace of $40 billion a month. This current loose money policy has led to the coining of the phrase "QE to infinity." The Fed is on record as saying this will continue until the economy is noticeably improved, past tense. It is true that Romney is on record as saying that he WILL replace Bernanke as Fed Chief. But that won't happen until 2014 because Helicopter Bens term is not up until that time (2014). That means that it is unlikely that the current QE policy will change anytime soon, even if Romney is elected.

2. The major currency pair with the USD is the EURO. As Europe's debt issues have been slowly, and cleverly, papered over, the Euro has been on a steady rise to the USD, hitting as high as 1.32 just a few weeks ago. There is no reason to believe that the momentum of the Euro gaining strength will be slowed if Romney wins. As the Euro strengthens, the USD declines. I have read many articles that make excellent cases for the Euro returning to the 1.35 to 1.40 range. Keep in mind, as the EURO goes up, the USD goes down.

3. Back to the Fed. One way to make a strong USD is to raise interest rates. This has always been an effective tool to ward of inflation, therefore strengthening the USD. However, Ben and the current FOMC are on record as saying the current interest rate policy will remain in place until 2015. So, it is highly doubtful the interest rates will change anytime before 2014, at the earliest.

4. Even if Romney was able to convince Bernanke to step down he is only one member of the FOMC. The current QE to infinity policy was voted on by a majority of the members of the FOMC. So even if Ben were to be replaced it would be unlikely that the current QE policy would change because a majority of the members would have to be convinced. This is doubtful because the majority is already convinced the current path is necessary.

5. My final point: what is the real reason for QE? The real reason for QE is to keep banks solvent because the entire US financial system is on the brink of insolvency. The current US banking system has $1 quadrillion worth of debt on the books in the form of OTC derivatives (Over The Counter derivatives). Most of these derivatives are in the form of huge inventories of mortgage backed securities, sub-prime auto loans, etc. Even if the economy rebounds QE is going to be necessary because of all of this worthless paper that banks have on the books. The fact is, once the road to QE has started it can't be reversed.

Okay, I think I've made my case.

Regardless of who wins the US Presidential election, it is highly unlikely the USD will rise in value (in relation to the other currency pairs) anytime soon. But of course, that's just my opinion.

WW.

[Goodlife]

Not a chance. The Pres. is the Pres. and that won't change.

And, if you are right and Romney gets in...I'm moving to New Zealand.

Chartman17

Any body else want to go to New Zealand.

[ilovesushi]

Wolfman, I like your prediction. University of Colorado had a predictive model that gives Romney the win.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

[caz1104]

Not a chance. The Pres. is the Pres. and that won't change.

And, if you are right and Romney gets in...I'm moving to New Zealand.

Chartman17

Next to Alec Baldwin? Edited October 25, 2012 by caz1104

[hoosier1470]

Any body else want to go to New Zealand.

I'm willing to go anywhere that's.WARM!! After the RV that is!! I want to be able to enjoy myself...if I went now, I guess I'd have to swim down there...unless someone knows of an airline giving away free tickets!!! God Bless!!

[Punks]

Not a chance. The Pres. is the Pres. and that won't change.

And, if you are right and Romney gets in...I'm moving to New Zealand.

Chartman17

Promise?

[Madmax67]

Not a chance. The Pres. is the Pres. and that won't change.

And, if you are right and Romney gets in...I'm moving to New Zealand.

Chartman17

Why would you move to a different country, you are already from the Republic of California.

[BigJake]

New Zealand is very particular as to who they allow to move there. You must have a job waiting for you or the money to start a business that they want. Even then it is not a given you will be allowed to move there.

[wolfman]

Okay, thanks for the prediction.

I guess I'm going to be a party pooper here, though, and ask a question:

What makes you think the USD will rise if Romney wins?

1. The Fed is currently printing at a pace of $40 billion a month. This current loose money policy has led to the coining of the phrase "QE to infinity." The Fed is on record as saying this will continue until the economy is noticeably improved, past tense. It is true that Romney is on record as saying that he WILL replace Bernanke as Fed Chief. But that won't happen until 2014 because Helicopter Bens term is not up until that time (2014). That means that it is unlikely that the current QE policy will change anytime soon, even if Romney is elected.

2. The major currency pair with the USD is the EURO. As Europe's debt issues have been slowly, and cleverly, papered over, the Euro has been on a steady rise to the USD, hitting as high as 1.32 just a few weeks ago. There is no reason to believe that the momentum of the Euro gaining strength will be slowed if Romney wins. As the Euro strengthens, the USD declines. I have read many articles that make excellent cases for the Euro returning to the 1.35 to 1.40 range. Keep in mind, as the EURO goes up, the USD goes down.

3. Back to the Fed. One way to make a strong USD is to raise interest rates. This has always been an effective tool to ward of inflation, therefore strengthening the USD. However, Ben and the current FOMC are on record as saying the current interest rate policy will remain in place until 2015. So, it is highly doubtful the interest rates will change anytime before 2014, at the earliest.

4. Even if Romney was able to convince Bernanke to step down he is only one member of the FOMC. The current QE to infinity policy was voted on by a majority of the members of the FOMC. So even if Ben were to be replaced it would be unlikely that the current QE policy would change because a majority of the members would have to be convinced. This is doubtful because the majority is already convinced the current path is necessary.

5. My final point: what is the real reason for QE? The real reason for QE is to keep banks solvent because the entire US financial system is on the brink of insolvency. The current US banking system has $1 quadrillion worth of debt on the books in the form of OTC derivatives (Over The Counter derivatives). Most of these derivatives are in the form of huge inventories of mortgage backed securities, sub-prime auto loans, etc. Even if the economy rebounds QE is going to be necessary because of all of this worthless paper that banks have on the books. The fact is, once the road to QE has started it can't be reversed.

Okay, I think I've made my case.

Regardless of who wins the US Presidential election, it is highly unlikely the USD will rise in value (in relation to the other currency pairs) anytime soon. But of course, that's just my opinion.

WW.

Buzz killer!

[WallyWeaver]

Buzz killer!

Sorry for the overkill response, wolfman.

I do like the part about Romney winning, though.... both the idea that he will win and your prediction that it will be so.

The USD is headed for tough times, though, my friend.

You do seem like a good sport. I appreciate that.

WW.