"It's not a lop, not a lop. Wait... SMOKESCREEN!"

[DaveD]

Based on looking at just about every other country in the world. And comparing their money supply numbers to their GDP. The highest I ever saw was a country with a money supply 2 times their GDP. Most countries have less money than their GDP. But let’s put Iraq right at the very top like you guys think they should be. They have a $100 billion GDP, so a $200 billion money supply would put then at the top of the world in that comparison. A 1:1 rv would mean a money supply of 200 billion dinar.

Do you have a source that shows 200 billion dinar as Iraq’s money supply number?

They would have to be cooking the books by a factor of 1000 for you guys to be correct. If they only had 200 billion dinar right now, that would mean they only have $200 million worth of dinar in circulation.

[DaveD]

Why does there have to be another number or source if one's intention is to simply call BS on the "official" source(s) of numbers?

Your free to call bs all you want. I just wonder what you base that on.

Iraq currently has a $100 billion GDP.

Their reported (BS to you and others) M2 is 70 trillion dinar... that means they have $70 billion worth of dinar to support their $100 billion economy at this time. that put them right in line with every other country in the world. If they are lying about their numbers by a factor of 1000 (which would be the case if they were to RV to 1:1), then they would only have $70 million in currency at this time. Do you really think they are supporting a $100 billion economy (GDP) with only $70 million in currency.

So again... you can call bs all you want. you don't even need a good reason to call bs as far as I'm care.

I'm just saying that you have to have a money supply nummber in mind to form a valid opinion on the value of the dinar. What number do you have in mand and what is the source for the number? Without a number you might as well be throwing darts. You can't just look at Kuwait and say they have a $3 rate, therefore Iraq needs a $3 rate. (though that's the level of research many have done). Kuwait only has 1 billion dinar n circulation. ONE BILLION. That is 30 THOUSAND times less than Iraq's reported (or bogus) numbers.

Edited July 10, 2012 by DaveD

[caz1104]

Your free to call bs all you want. I just wonder what you base that on.

Iraq currently has a $100 billion GDP.

Their reported (BS to you and others) M2 is 70 trillion dinar... that means they have $70 billion worth of dinar to support their $100 billion economy at this time. that put them right in line with every other country in the world. If they are lying about their numbers by a factor of 1000 (which would be the case if they were to RV to 1:1), then they would only have $70 million in currency at this time. Do you really think they are supporting a $100 billion economy (GDP) with only $70 million in currency.

So again... you can call bs all you want. you don't even need a good reason to call bs as far as I'm care.

I'm just saying that you have to have a money supply nummber in mind to form a valid opinion on the value of the dinar. What number do you have in mand and what is the source for the number? Without a number you might as well be throwing darts. You can't just look at Kuwait and say they have a $3 rate, therefore Iraq needs a $3 rate. (though that's the level of research many have done). Kuwait only has 1 billion dinar n circulation. ONE BILLION. That is 30 THOUSAND times less than Iraq's reported (or bogus) numbers.

I dont want to speak for Sanss,but if your looking for links or proof that gov's lie or decieve then i think its a dark day in mudville. You can go back as far in time as you would like or just listen to ANY of todays. I would'nt think this point would be debateable.......................but I could be wrong. By the way I don't think anyone is stating that what Iraq say's is not true but we are saying the possibilty is there.

Edited July 10, 2012 by caz1104

[DaveD]

I dont want to speak for Sanss,but if your looking for links or proof that gov's lie or decieve then i think its a dark day in mudville. You can go back as far in time as you would like or just listen to ANY of todays. I would'nt think this point would be debateable.......................but I could be wrong. By the way I don't think anyone is stating that what Iraq say's is not true but we are saying the possibilty is there.

Of course I know politicians and governments lie. But the lie being claimed here would not be sustainable. They simply could not be lying about the numbers by a factor of 1000.

Again… for Iraq to RV to 1:1 and have a money supply number to GDP ratio anywhere near every other country in the world, they could only have about 200 billion dinar at max. Point to something that makes you believe the money supply could be that low.

[caz1104]

Of course I know politicians and governments lie. But the lie being claimed here would not be sustainable. They simply could not be lying about the numbers by a factor of 1000.

Again… for Iraq to RV to 1:1 and have a money supply number to GDP ratio anywhere near every other country in the world, they could only have about 200 billion dinar at max. Point to something that makes you believe the money supply could be that low.

"simply can't could not be lying about numbers by a factor of 1000" why not? Our country is trillions of dollars in debt..............do we really know the true numbers?

Agreed..............if the numbers they state are correct. There is no debate on "possibilities" and thats what we're saying. You believe or are debating on what they say,we just don't trust them or anything put forth. Why worry or debate over what we have no 100% evidence of. Just fyi transparency is just a word,again trust what they say if you will but I won't and don't. Heck I don't even trust my CPA when it comes to my monies or my companies monies. Best to you

Edited July 10, 2012 by caz1104

[dinarck]

"simply can't could not be lying about numbers by a factor of 1000" why not? Our country is trillions of dollars in debt..............do we really know the true numbers?

Agreed..............if the numbers they state are correct. There is no debate on "possibilities" and thats what we're saying. You believe or are debating on what they say,we just don't trust them or anything put forth. Why worry or debate over what we have no 100% evidence of. Just fyi transparency is just a word,again trust what they say if you will but I won't and don't. Heck I don't even trust my CPA when it comes to my monies or my companies monies. Best to you

Wow caz...has your lack of a position on the "RV" converted you into a conspiracy quack as well? I guess you have learned to think "outside of the box" as well huh?

People.....the dinar is in a hyperinflated state. Of course there is a huge amount in existence. Show me one hyperinflated currency that doesn't. There are over a quadrillion Dong in exsitence. Are you conspiracy nuts going to call that global elite media Zionist lies too? I'm sure there already trying in Dong land. Why do you think you can buy a dinar for less than 1/10th of a US penny? Because its all Zionist media suppression? Haha...no. Its because there is a massive amount in in existence. Now Sassapuey, come back with stupid remarks and replys for each sentence I just posted to show how "smart" you are.

[dhardage]

Wow caz...has your lack of a position on the "RV" converted you into a conspiracy quack as well? I guess you have learned to think "outside of the box" as well huh?

Sassapuey, come back with stupid remarks and replys for each sentence I just posted to show how "smart" you are.

WOW dinarck, do you need a hug, a nap or perhaps a midol?? why so hostile?? There are people you can talk to about that, you know.

[caz1104]

Wow caz...has your lack of a position on the "RV" converted you into a conspiracy quack as well? I guess you have learned to think "outside of the box" as well huh?

People.....the dinar is in a hyperinflated state. Of course there is a huge amount in existence. Show me one hyperinflated currency that doesn't. There are over a quadrillion Dong in exsitence. Are you conspiracy nuts going to call that global elite media Zionist lies too? I'm sure there already trying in Dong land. Why do you think you can buy a dinar for less than 1/10th of a US penny? Because its all Zionist media suppression? Haha...no. Its because there is a massive amount in in existence. Now Sassapuey, come back with stupid remarks and replys for each sentence I just posted to show how "smart" you are.

My position is that you are as clueless as you are classless. History has shown over and over that what I state to be true.Could I be wrong............dah yes,you however believe every word written,tell me who the quack is? My position has never changed as I've stated countless times that I believe this could end multiple of ways. I will not commit to any one for only a FOOL would imo. I HOPE for an RV and will continue regardless of what anyone states. Instead of taking classes in economics I would suggest one in human behavoir instead,you definitely could use them. But I think you know this for I can't be the first to suggest it.

WOW dinarck, do you need a hug, a nap or perhaps a midol?? why so hostile?? There are people you can talk to about that, you know.

Yet he complains of others attacking him,paranoia.

Edited July 10, 2012 by caz1104

[dinarck]

My position is that you are as clueless as you are classless. History has shown over and over that what I state to be true.Could I be wrong............dah yes,you however believe every word written,tell me who the quack is? My position has never changed as I've stated countless times that I believe this could end multiple of ways. I will not commit to any one for only a FOOL would imo. I HOPE for an RV and will continue regardless of what anyone states. Instead of taking classes in economics I would suggest one in human behavoir instead,you definitely could use them. But I think you know this for I can't be the first to suggest it.

Yet he complains of others attacking him,paranoia.

Yep. It's all lies by the media. That seems to be the most recent cop out by RVers to avoid dealing with reality. That and endless jabbering about pointless ignorance.

Come on Sassapuey. Were are you to show everyone that my reality is based off of global elite zionst lying media? Hurry. There is more single sentences in this post for you to reply to.

[DaveD]

This goes right back to my original post for this thread. There is a major split in the dinar community these days.

A number of the gurus still believe every word of these delete 3 zero articles, but they think it means a 100,000% rv. Many people follow this line thinking. Just look at the latest article posted in news today.

Then there are a few gurus, and a number of dinar holders who have come to realize the delete 3 zero articles are indeed talking about a lop. They use to believe the articles, but now they claim the articles are just made up lies to cover for the “can’t be talked about” impending big RV.

[20MillionDinar]

I dont want to speak for Sanss,but if your looking for links or proof that gov's lie or decieve then i think its a dark day in mudville. You can go back as far in time as you would like or just listen to ANY of todays. I would'nt think this point would be debateable.......................but I could be wrong. By the way I don't think anyone is stating that what Iraq say's is not true but we are saying the possibilty is there.

Wow! This course sure has been going on for quite some time now...

I want to chime in with my 2 cents if that's ok with you folks? OK, I trade currency as a full time job and I need to point out a few key points. First of all, it doesn't matter if governments are "fudging" their numbers, we all know they do in one way or another. What matters is how the market perceives these numbers. For example: The US unemployment "claims" forecast for this coming week are 379k. http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php Depending on if the "actual" numbers that are stated by the "news / media" will determine the price action. Like I said, IT DOESN'T MATTER IF THEY ARE LYING, it only matters how the market perceives the numbers.

Currencies and markets don't really care if a government is lying, they react off of the NEWS, period.

**When it comes to the IQD the numbers that are stated are the numbers that matter. Even if they have less currency in circulation then is stated, it won't matter due to the fact that the market is based off of stated numbers. This is why I choose to go off of the numbers, because this is how you win or lose in the world markets. We can't get mad and say "well you're lying about your numbers... I'm not gonna play anymore until you get your facts straight!" No! You would never be able to participate in the world markets if you are looking for absolute truth.

So we have "True" numbers which don't matter one bit! Then we have forecast, and "actual" numbers which all play a part in currencies and major indices moving up or down. You can choose to play the game, or sit on the side lines and complain about how the "media" is lying. I know they're lying, but that won't make me any money by complaining about it or pointing it out.

I forgot to mention in my previous post, due to the fact that the IQD is not traded on the FOREX the ONLY numbers that we can go off of are the CBI's numbers.

NOTHING affects the rate of the IQD: Unemployment rate doesn't matter, bombings, natural disasters, new bills/laws that are passed, CPI, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales, Bond Auctions, New Loans, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Press Conferences, etc... Nothing!

All of the above mentioned items (which normally move markets up and down) do not matter in Iraq's case as they are more or less "pegged" to the USD.

The only thing that matters in Iraq's case is:

1) *"Stated" GDP

2) *"Stated" M1 & M2 Money Supply

3) *"Stated" Inflation

Nothing else will determine the value of the IQD at this time! I'm not telling anybody to believe me or not, but I deal with currencies every day of the week and have learned how to profit from the ups and downs that each currency experiences on a daily basis.

*Stated doesn't mean it is TRUE, it is what the market has priced in due to the fact that the numbers that are stated are the numbers that determine price and value of a currency.

[DaveD]

"simply can't could not be lying about numbers by a factor of 1000" why not?

Yikes... that statement shows you have zero understanding of economics and how a money suppy supports an economy.

[caz1104]

Yikes... that statement shows you have zero understanding of economics and how a money suppy supports an economy.

Righttttttttttttt. I wish i knew half as much as the gang down here thought they knew,then I would be 10 times as smart as they claim to be. The only ones that have any economical background or knowledge,please......................even you must bore yourself at times. My statement was used as example of possibilty of falsehoods and use it as exact,comical. Ya'll have a great evening this has been way too much entertainment for one day.

Wow! This course sure has been going on for quite some time now...

I want to chime in with my 2 cents if that's ok with you folks? OK, I trade currency as a full time job and I need to point out a few key points. First of all, it doesn't matter if governments are "fudging" their numbers, we all know they do in one way or another. What matters is how the market perceives these numbers. For example: The US unemployment "claims" forecast for this coming week are 379k. http://www.forexfact...om/calendar.php Depending on if the "actual" numbers that are stated by the "news / media" will determine the price action. Like I said, IT DOESN'T MATTER IF THEY ARE LYING, it only matters how the market perceives the numbers.

Currencies and markets don't really care if a government is lying, they react off of the NEWS, period.

**When it comes to the IQD the numbers that are stated are the numbers that matter. Even if they have less currency in circulation then is stated, it won't matter due to the fact that the market is based off of stated numbers. This is why I choose to go off of the numbers, because this is how you win or lose in the world markets. We can't get mad and say "well you're lying about your numbers... I'm not gonna play anymore until you get your facts straight!" No! You would never be able to participate in the world markets if you are looking for absolute truth.

So we have "True" numbers which don't matter one bit! Then we have forecast, and "actual" numbers which all play a part in currencies and major indices moving up or down. You can choose to play the game, or sit on the side lines and complain about how the "media" is lying. I know they're lying, but that won't make me any money by complaining about it or pointing it out.

I forgot to mention in my previous post, due to the fact that the IQD is not traded on the FOREX the ONLY numbers that we can go off of are the CBI's numbers.

NOTHING affects the rate of the IQD: Unemployment rate doesn't matter, bombings, natural disasters, new bills/laws that are passed, CPI, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales, Bond Auctions, New Loans, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Press Conferences, etc... Nothing!

All of the above mentioned items (which normally move markets up and down) do not matter in Iraq's case as they are more or less "pegged" to the USD.

The only thing that matters in Iraq's case is:

1) *"Stated" GDP

2) *"Stated" M1 & M2 Money Supply

3) *"Stated" Inflation

Nothing else will determine the value of the IQD at this time! I'm not telling anybody to believe me or not, but I deal with currencies every day of the week and have learned how to profit from the ups and downs that each currency experiences on a daily basis.

*Stated doesn't mean it is TRUE, it is what the market has priced in due to the fact that the numbers that are stated are the numbers that determine price and value of a currency.

Ahhhhhhhhhhh the currency expert. Exactly how much did you invest in the dinar after researching it? And we should listen to you why?

Edited July 10, 2012 by caz1104

[20MillionDinar]

Righttttttttttttt. I wish i knew half as much as the gang down here thought they knew,then I would be 10 times as smart as they claim to be. The only ones that have any economical background or knowledge,please......................even you must bore yourself at times. My statement was used as example of possibilty of falsehoods and use it as exact,comical. Ya'll have a great evening this has been way too much entertainment for one day.

Ahhhhhhhhhhh the currency expert. Exactly how much did you invest in the dinar after researching it? And we should listen to you why?

I didn't come here to argue, just stating how my business works. I already explained when and why I got invested, circumstances change and Iraq did not keep doing what they were doing when I got in. They stopped increasing the rate and kept printing more and more Dinar... I got in when it was 1450:1 and within 2 years it was down to 1170:1. Problem is, they stopped increasing the value for 3 straight years. If they had kept increasing the rate at 3-5 dinars per day we would have had our 1:1 rate by now!

**I stated you don't have to believe me. By the way, for somebody who runs 10 businesses you sure have a lot of spare time to type on this forum all day long... Anyways, I was just sharing information that pertains to currencies with anybody who is interested. If you have a problem with that then move on to the next post.

What's up with your hostility Caz? Somebody piss in your wheaties?

By the way, I am not a currency expert. "I know that I know nothing." Sōkrátēs

Edited July 10, 2012 by 20MillionDinar

[DaveD]

Righttttttttttttt. I wish i knew half as much as the gang down here thought they knew,then I would be 10 times as smart as they claim to be. The only ones that have any economical background or knowledge,please......................even you must bore yourself at times. My statement was used as example of possibilty of falsehoods and use it as exact,comical. Ya'll have a great evening this has been way too much entertainment for one day.

Look we’ve gone over this many times. Iraq, the UN, IMF, many other sources claim Iraq has an M2 of just over 70 trillion dinar. A 1:1 RV of that amount would give Iraq more currency than the rest of the world combined.

Knowing how absolutely preposterous it is to claim such a thing will happen, you guys now claim the numbers must not be true.

Even though the current amount of dinar at the current rate puts Iraq exactly in line with all the other countries in world when comparing money supply to GDP.

In order to support this huge RV, Iraq must be lying about the amount of dinar out there by a factor of 1000. That would mean they only have about $70 million worth of dinar now. Anyone who understands economics would know that is absolutely impossible, and just as preposterous as them RVing to have more currency than the rest of the world.

Sometimes I wonder if you guys understand the magnitude of 1000 times, same as 100,000%. That is a MASSIVE difference. If you were trying to convince me that Iraq was lying by 20 or 30%, or even if they were getting crazy and fudging the number 100%. I could buy that. 100% is only 1 time. 30% is .3 times.

To think that the Iraqi dinar has been out there for 8 years now, and for 8 years they have been fudging the numbers by 100,000% is a nonsensical thought. It’s beyond fairy tale status.

So tell me the numbers are off by 100% (highly unlikely) and the dinar will revalue from 1/10 of a penny to 2/10 of a penny and I’m all ears. I’d still like to see some evidence of that, but I might believe it.

Lying by 100,000%??? Sorry. Unintelligible.

[dinarck]

Hahaha...extremely well said Dave. Yet theRVers base their whole stance on a government media conspiracy cover-up. It's so laughable that I can't even believe that it is taken seriously by some. Only in dinar delusion land.

The absolute proof that there is as much in circulation as they say is the value of the dinar itself. It is right where it should be in relation to the reserves and the amount in circulation. THIS IS HOW PEGGED CURRENCIES WORK. There is no conspiracy to quell that fact. If there wasn't that much in circulation then why would the CBI continue to sell it for 1/10th of a penny? O yeah....its all a conspiracy by the Zionist global elites. Haha. What a joke. Yeah...Iraq is giving away dinar that they are going to massively increase the value of. What planet can this thought to be happening? And its us "lopsters" who are clueless. Please.

20million....nicely stated as well.

[jackster]

Wow! This course sure has been going on for quite some time now...

I want to chime in with my 2 cents if that's ok with you folks? OK, I trade currency as a full time job and I need to point out a few key points. First of all, it doesn't matter if governments are "fudging" their numbers, we all know they do in one way or another. What matters is how the market perceives these numbers. For example: The US unemployment "claims" forecast for this coming week are 379k. http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php Depending on if the "actual" numbers that are stated by the "news / media" will determine the price action. Like I said, IT DOESN'T MATTER IF THEY ARE LYING, it only matters how the market perceives the numbers.

Currencies and markets don't really care if a government is lying, they react off of the NEWS, period.

**When it comes to the IQD the numbers that are stated are the numbers that matter. Even if they have less currency in circulation then is stated, it won't matter due to the fact that the market is based off of stated numbers. This is why I choose to go off of the numbers, because this is how you win or lose in the world markets. We can't get mad and say "well you're lying about your numbers... I'm not gonna play anymore until you get your facts straight!" No! You would never be able to participate in the world markets if you are looking for absolute truth.

So we have "True" numbers which don't matter one bit! Then we have forecast, and "actual" numbers which all play a part in currencies and major indices moving up or down. You can choose to play the game, or sit on the side lines and complain about how the "media" is lying. I know they're lying, but that won't make me any money by complaining about it or pointing it out.

I forgot to mention in my previous post, due to the fact that the IQD is not traded on the FOREX the ONLY numbers that we can go off of are the CBI's numbers.

NOTHING affects the rate of the IQD: Unemployment rate doesn't matter, bombings, natural disasters, new bills/laws that are passed, CPI, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales, Bond Auctions, New Loans, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Press Conferences, etc... Nothing!

All of the above mentioned items (which normally move markets up and down) do not matter in Iraq's case as they are more or less "pegged" to the USD.

The only thing that matters in Iraq's case is:

1) *"Stated" GDP

2) *"Stated" M1 & M2 Money Supply

3) *"Stated" Inflation

Nothing else will determine the value of the IQD at this time! I'm not telling anybody to believe me or not, but I deal with currencies every day of the week and have learned how to profit from the ups and downs that each currency experiences on a daily basis.

*Stated doesn't mean it is TRUE, it is what the market has priced in due to the fact that the numbers that are stated are the numbers that determine price and value of a currency.

20Million, thanks for the input. I see that Caz has already jumped on you.

I am assuming that you have been trading currencies for a few years now. You have experience. If you want to completely discredit yourself, just tell them that you have a degree that jumpstarted you into this career.

If I understand you correctly, it does not matter what the government of Iraq does. Neither CBI, Maliki, Shabibi, Talabani, IMF, WTO, World Banking & Finance Summit 2012, UNSC Chapter 7, Erbil, HCL or any other organization from the UN, OPEC, the Middle East, NATO, the USA, etc.

BTW, did you track the Swiss Franc last year? That was a nice ride, huh?

[20MillionDinar]

20Million, thanks for the input. I see that Caz has already jumped on you.

I am assuming that you have been trading currencies for a few years now. You have experience. If you want to completely discredit yourself, just tell them that you have a degree that jumpstarted you into this career.

If I understand you correctly, it does not matter what the government of Iraq does. Neither CBI, Maliki, Shabibi, Talabani, IMF, WTO, World Banking & Finance Summit 2012, UNSC Chapter 7, Erbil, HCL or any other organization from the UN, OPEC, the Middle East, NATO, the USA, etc.

BTW, did you track the Swiss Franc last year? That was a nice ride, huh?

Hey Jackster,

Yea it is understandable, some people just don't want their dreams of becoming rich slashed by logic and reality.

Well, to a certain extent. Any Central Bank's main goal is to keep inflation in check, even if they don't come out and directly say it most CB's try to keep inflation at or around 2%. To do this, they use the monetary tools at their disposal, contractionary and expansionary policy. In Iraq's case, they have been using more "expansionary" monetary policies by printing more and more Dinar. Ultimately the value of the IQD is up to the CBI, period. The biggest problem with a significant overnight RV is that it goes against everything a Central Bank stands for as a CB's main goal is to keep inflation in check, they can't do this if 100,000% increases or decreases hit their currency instantaneous! It will crash their currency!

Central banks and monetary policy go hand-in-hand, so you can't talk about one without talking about the other. While some of these mandates and goals are shared by the different central banks. Central banks have their own unique set of goals brought on by their distinctive economies. Ultimately, monetary policy boils down to promoting and maintaining price stability and economic growth.

To achieve their goals, central banks use monetary policy mainly to control the following:

• *the interest rates tied to the cost of money,
• *the rise in inflation,
• *the money supply,
• *reserve requirements over banks,
• *discount window lending to commercial banks

Types of Monetary Policy:

Monetary policy can be referred to in a couple different ways. Contractionary or restrictive monetary policy takes place if it reduces the size of the money supply. It can also occur with the raising of interest rates. The idea here is to slow economic growth with the high interest rates. Borrowing money becomes harder and more expensive, which reduces spending and investment by both consumers and businesses.

Expansionary monetary policy, on the other hand, expands or increases the money supply, or decreases the interest rate. The cost of borrowing money goes down in hopes that spending and investment will go up. Accommodative monetary policy aims to create economic growth by lowering the interest rate, whereas tight monetary policy is set to reduce inflation or restrain economic growth by raising interest rates.

Finally, neutral monetary policy intends to neither create growth nor fight inflation.

The important thing to remember about inflation is that central banks usually have an inflation target in mind, say 2%. They might not come out and say it specifically, but their monetary policies all operate and focus on reaching this comfort zone. They know that some inflation is a good thing, but out-of-control inflation can remove the confidence people have in their economy, their job, and ultimately, their money. By having target inflation levels, central banks help market participants better understand how they (the central bankers) will deal with the current economic landscape.

Let's take a look at an example.

Back in January of 2010, inflation in the U.K. shot up to 3.5% from 2.9% in just one month. With a target inflation rate of 2%, the new 3.5% rate was well above the Bank of England's comfort zone. Mervyn King, the governor of the BOE, followed up the report by reassuring people that temporary factors caused the sudden jump, and that the current inflation rate would fall in the near term with minimal action from the BOE. Whether or not his statements turned out to be true is not the point here. We just want to show that the market is in a better place when it knows why the central bank does or doesn't do something in relation to its target interest rate.

Simply put, traders like stability.

Central banks like stability.

Economies like stability. Knowing that inflation targets exist will help a trader to understand why a central bank does what it does.

A currency's interest rate is probably the biggest factor in determining the perceived value of a currency. So knowing how a country's central bank sets its monetary policy, such as interest rate decisions, is a crucial thing to wrap your head around.

One of the biggest influences on a central bank's interest rate decision is price stability, or "inflation". Inflation is a steady increase in the prices of goods and services. Inflation is the reason why your parents or your parents' parents paid a nickel for a soda pop in the 1920's, but now people pay twenty times more for the same product. It's generally accepted that moderate inflation comes with economic growth.

*However, too much inflation can harm an economy and that's why central banks are always keeping a watchful eye on inflation-related economic indicators, such as the CPI and PCE.

I have been following the financial markets for a few years now, but only started Live trading in October of last year. About 2 months ago I went full time and now I work from the comfort of my home. This business gives me plenty of free time and the ability to make basically as much as I want to. I will definitely trade currency and commodities until there is no such thing as Capitalism. **Or until this new global financial system everybody is talking about comes into play...

Swiss Franc: I did not get on that ride last year. I personally don't trade the CHF because one never knows when the SNB will drop their peg. There are plenty other currencies and commodities to choose from and I stick with what I know best. Mainly the AUD/USD, EUR/USD, Gold, Oil, and the DOW. But my favorites are the Japanese cross currency pairs especially AUD/JPY!

Edited July 11, 2012 by 20MillionDinar

[GotSix]

There are plenty other currencies and commodities to choose from and I stick with what I know best. Mainly the AUD/USD, EUR/USD, Gold, Oil, and the DOW. But my favorites are the Japanese cross currency pairs especially AUD/JPY!

My favorites pairs are the VND/IQD

[20MillionDinar]

My favorites pairs are the VND/IQD

Unless they redenominate and/or increase the value gradually, the IQD is a flatline.

Most pairs move in waves, the IQD wave looks like this: ___________________________________________________________________________

By the way, I am letting everybody know right now with about 90%-95% certainty that the DOW and S&P500 will be heading down for the next 4 months or so.

The USD will be heading to new 2,3, even 4 year highs this year. This means that AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD, and the CAD will all be going DOWN!

Oil will be heading down to roughly $60 per barrel within the coming months.

Gold should move down with everything as well, however, it has been acting kind of funny this year. But I won't be surprised one bit to see Gold at $1,200 an ounce by November of this year.

**Bottom Line: If you are holding US equities, I would sell out now, then get in again once it hits the bottom, if you choose to do so. This is my crystal ball forecast But in all seriousness, get out while you have a chance. Markets move in cycles, and right now, markets are going down and the USD is headed up, this should last until later this year.

[jackster]

20Million, now I understand you a lot better. You have been fairly quiet the past few months.

The Swiss Franc was around 1 USD, then went up to $1.40 last August/Sept and is back down to 1 USD. You're probably aware but in Europe the Franc and Norwegian Krone are the strong and reliable currencies at the moment.

[20MillionDinar]

20Million, now I understand you a lot better. You have been fairly quiet the past few months.

The Swiss Franc was around 1 USD, then went up to $1.40 last August/Sept and is back down to 1 USD. You're probably aware but in Europe the Franc and Norwegian Krone are the strong and reliable currencies at the moment.

I've been quiet around here because nobody wants to hear common sense or anything about how economics work. This site has really turned into a Conspiracy Theory / Hopes & Dreams forum. Just got a little irritated I guess. I mainly "hang out" at a particular thread over at ForexFactorydotcom

Yes you're right. The Franc is being suppressed by the SNB as they need a lower valued currency for exports. Luckily for them the SNB is big enough to be able to "peg" it to the Euro, or at least very close to it. If it was up to the market, the Franc would go right back up... The Norwegian Krone has actually been under a lot of pressure lately too though. The Swedish Krone is holding up the best out of all of the European currencies as of right now.

This will be the year of the US Dollar! And the yen too, even though the BOJ doesn't want a strong yen, it is the biggest safe haven currency so when times get tough, the tough, go to USD and JPY!

Edited July 11, 2012 by 20MillionDinar

[MrFnHappy]

I realize this isn't the place for this, but I have to ask 20Mil something.

20Mil, with the recent direct currency trade agreement between China and Japan, I could see the JPY strengthening, but I can only see the USD getting hurt, and PM's benefiting. Can you tell me why you see a good year for the USD?

Not looking to argue, just curious, as my profession is not currency trading. I buy and sell gold and silver (among other things) for a living.

[20MillionDinar]

I realize this isn't the place for this, but I have to ask 20Mil something.

20Mil, with the recent direct currency trade agreement between China and Japan, I could see the JPY strengthening, but I can only see the USD getting hurt, and PM's benefiting. Can you tell me why you see a good year for the USD?

Not looking to argue, just curious, as my profession is not currency trading. I buy and sell gold and silver (among other things) for a living.

He MrFnHappy,

The biggest reason is because of the problems in the Eurozone. When major problems occur, sentiment becomes what is known as "risk off." This means money moves from "risky" investment vehicles such as stock markets and other emerging market currencies and looks for safety in the USD and the JPY.

Japan experienced their first trade deficit in 20 years last year in 2011, which means, they are hoping to have a weaker currency. This would really help their exports, hopefully give them a trade surplus, which in turn is good for their markets. BUT, with things the way they are in Europe it is risk off. The BOJ can intervene, and has done so in the past, but the effects wear off within a few weeks at the most. Also, the BOJ is nowhere even close to the SNB so they aren't able to suppress the Yen for the long term like the Swiss National Bank can. They've tried, but it doesn't work.

China has been showing signs of weakening, if I'm not mistaken they have cut interest rates twice in just the past few months, and have gone through with some stimulus plans. The currency trade agreement is one thing, but overall market sentiment trumps anything else.

Hope that made sense. If you have any other questions I will do my best to answer them to the best of my ability.

I really like trading Gold, but it's been a little tricky this year. Do you mainly deal with physical or do you trade through a brokerage firm? Just a heads up, since you are dealing with Gold you should keep the following number in mind: $1,520. If this number is broken, Gold will fall into the abyss...

Edited July 11, 2012 by 20MillionDinar

[DaveD]

I realize this isn't the place for this, but I have to ask 20Mil something.

20Mil, with the recent direct currency trade agreement between China and Japan, I could see the JPY strengthening, but I can only see the USD getting hurt, and PM's benefiting. Can you tell me why you see a good year for the USD?

Not looking to argue, just curious, as my profession is not currency trading. I buy and sell gold and silver (among other things) for a living.

You ever hear the term... "It's the least dirty shirt"

20Mill might be right. But I don't think I would short the Aussie Dollar.

And never discount Big Ben's ability to throw a monkey wrench into any plans.

Edited July 11, 2012 by DaveD