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***My take on what could possibly go down***


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Oh, I get it. Francie is wrong, but you are right.

The difference is that I (and Doctor robbins) provided clear support for WHY we are right. Easy and Francie just ignored that and claimed we are wrong. If a country with less than 1/3 of 1% of the worlds GDP can have a money supply valued at double the worlds GDP, then please explain how that would work? How can Iraq attain actual value equal to double the value of the entire planet merely due to their saying so? If it works for them then why not the US or the Euro-zone? The point you seem to be missing (after such a well thought out post on tariffs) is that economies are not arbitrary. Economies function due to rough consistency in value. Iraq telling the rest of the world that "we are now valued at more than double all of you combined and hence now own the entire planet" is simply not possible given the nature of economies. If you think otherwise, then please explain it. Merely ignoring it is not an explanation.
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thanks for the informative post. I am not currently invested in any part of Iraq....as a retired army vet, i believe the actionable intel on this subject has yet to be revealed....when that happens , i will be in a better position to act. All of the intel posted from these so called Gurus are without foundation and ment to drive emotion not logic. Lets hope your opinion is not based on intel without evidence.

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"this is supposed to be commentary on an investment" -- How do you know this? I believe Easy can decide what it is "supposed" to be. After all, he wrote it. As to leaving God out of it, some of us prefer that He be included much more often than He is these days. Many of us believe that God belongs in all the workings of Man, so this is simply your own opinion, and is certainly not a valid argument. Also your point that "As we've seen demonstrated time and again" was left to flounder in the wind as though everyone will, as a matter of principle, agree with you. You give no examples while simply stating that this has been done innumerable times. We have to accept your word on this without proof, making this merely a speculative point, with which many people who are highly trained and well-versed in economics (man of whom are here) would simply disagree. As to an RV of $2.00 being ideal, I believe Easy's statement that "Iraq's currency needs to rise quickly to offset the devastation of Iraq's economy and infrastructure while gaining access to worldwide trade and international banking recognition" gives Easy's claim merit and support. And yes, the human element should be considered in a move of such magnitude, and the Iraqi cultural "pride" is well-known. It is a narrow view that would not include the impact of such a pervading attitude in what might, otherwise, be overwhelming circumstances.

Your analysis is vapid and without merit. And just so you know, I am the guilty culprit for at least one of your negs.

Fran

haha I just looked back, and although I suspect you will get others, so far you only have one neg, mine. :)

Sorry. I thought it was pretty much understood what the purpose was since it was posted under "Opinions, Perspectives, and Your Two Cents on the Iraqi Dinar". Maybe we need a "Opinions on God and Religion" section, too. I have nothing against religion, but when I go to a doctor I don't want to hear "well usually medical science says to offer this medicine but I feel like God would have me to do it a different way". When I go to a mechanic I don't want to hear "I usually run diagnostics to isolate the problem and then work on the car but this time I'm going to lay hands on your car and pray instead". When you get up in the morning do you pray about what you should wear that day? Do you pray about whether to have one cup of coffee or two? It's great to say let's include God in our lives, but do we really live that way? Or do we just do our best to use the brain and hopefully the common sense that God gave us?

The examples of people breaking down the numbers on economics are everywhere in this forum, although many unfortunately are confined to the LOP section. But I did offer a few examples myself. It's a misconception that raising the value of the IQD 100,000% or more would benefit the Iraqi people. Show me one economist who promotes this viewpoint. And while you're at it find me an economist or currency expert who thinks that national pride has anything to do with a currency's value. Sure, you can find gurus who say that, but I think we've all had enough of these guys.

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Good post easy. but your missing the mega thing standing in your way....70 trillion in m2. Despite what you or i believe or think, officially iraqs currency in circulation and m2 continue to grow. Iraqs government pays its bills in dinars. if everything was paid for in dollars....i could see dinar being drastically removed. but we have a large, thick, stagnant money supply which has Shabibis attention. shabibi is an economists, data and statistics will be the backbone of any decision he makes. thats what stands in the way, otherwise id believe similar to what your posted.

And the lastest from the cbi........" remove three zeroes from the calculation of accounts". meaning if i had a million dinar in an account.....it will turn into only 1000.

The cbi is saying more than just delete the three zeroes. Fyi

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Oh, I get it. Francie is wrong, but you are right. Okay. Go for it, Francie.

Can we just say 'Thank you, Easy. We appreciate your time, thought, and effort to put your raw thoughts out for everyone to read and criticize. Thank you for your bravery, Easy. We know that you know what to expect here, good, bad, and indifferent, and hopefully you will ignore the limited thinkers because you are gracious and were simply offering up your opinion in a well thought out thesis that takes time, though, and effort, which is much more than 99.9999% bother to do. It is so much easier just to sit down and rip.'

There. We said it.

Well, he does invite negative comments in his title. "...let the bashing begin..."

But, I think he didn't need to include that phrase. It'll come naturally.

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I'm curious as to why all of the financial wizards on this board always discuss M1 and M2, but never M0. I am no economics student, but it seems that the M0 would be of more importance when discussing actual dinars in circulation:

Type of money:

M0: In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, M0 includes bank reserves, so M0 is referred to as the monetary base, or narrow money.[11]

MB: is referred to as the monetary base or total currency.[8] This is the base from which other forms of money (like checking deposits, listed below) are created and is traditionally the most liquid measure of the money supply.[12]

M1: Bank reserves are not included in M1.

M2: Represents money and "close substitutes" for money.[13] M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. Economists use M2 when looking to quantify the amount of money in circulation and trying to explain different economic monetary conditions. M2 is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation.[14]

M3: M2 plus large and long-term deposits. Since 2006, M3 is no longer tracked by the US central bank.[15] However, there are still estimates produced by various private institutions.

MZM: Money with zero maturity. It measures the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand.

The ratio of a pair of these measures, most often M2/M0, is called an (actual, empirical) money multiplier.

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I agree, we should say, "Thank you," to Easy. However, he is wrong.

First, the CBI is not pulling dollars from the streets... They are pulling dinars from the streets. Why? To reduce the number in circulation in an attempt to keep the value of the dinar up.

Second, the dinar WILL be on par with the USD AFTER they "remove the zeros", redenominate and re-value the currency. That means at the end of the day, the quantity of dinar that anyone holds will be reduced by 1000% (one million dinar will become 1000 dinar). That is why the CBI has called the redenomination process a "neutral event". No one will gain and no one will lose.

Third, this is not a world event. It is one central bank trying its best to bring its hyperinflated currency under control. There will not be any realignment of the world currencies, unless you believe Okie.

Fourth, the Iraqi people are proud?????? So proud that they let a dictator run their country into the ground? So proud that they allow their current government to be one of the most corrupt governments in the world? So proud that they allow their government to not provide basic services like water and electricty?

The only entity that controls the monetary policy of Iraq is the CBI. PLEASE listen to what they are saying! The value of the dinar WILL increase....But your quantity will be reduced. It is very simple to follow.

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I'm curious as to why all of the financial wizards on this board always discuss M1 and M2, but never M0. I am no economics student, but it seems that the M0 would be of more importance when discussing actual dinars in circulation:

Type of money:

M0: In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, M0 includes bank reserves, so M0 is referred to as the monetary base, or narrow money.[11]

MB: is referred to as the monetary base or total currency.[8] This is the base from which other forms of money (like checking deposits, listed below) are created and is traditionally the most liquid measure of the money supply.[12]

M1: Bank reserves are not included in M1.

M2: Represents money and "close substitutes" for money.[13] M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. Economists use M2 when looking to quantify the amount of money in circulation and trying to explain different economic monetary conditions. M2 is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation.[14]

M3: M2 plus large and long-term deposits. Since 2006, M3 is no longer tracked by the US central bank.[15] However, there are still estimates produced by various private institutions.

MZM: Money with zero maturity. It measures the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand.

The ratio of a pair of these measures, most often M2/M0, is called an (actual, empirical) money multiplier.

Because m2 can be applied without problem. And that is the statistic they supply so some. 70 trillion showing up on m0,m1,m2 , is very problematic for a straight up 1:1 rv. that point is clearer made with m2. Unfortunately most refuse to apply economics when talking dinar, these are real statistics. we can ignore them but shabibi wont.

fyi, theres not an monetary policy in the world that could balance 70 trillion dollars. and if there was, we wouldve seen it by now. and whoevers in charge, would not let iraq be in the current situation. Iraq is on the cusp of falling apart

p.s.- i wouldnt call people wizards, its common sense and simple math, after you gather your data and statistics

There is a beutiful statistical chart on the cbi site which shows m2 along side currency in circulationn. a must see for everyone

i didnt know reading a bar chart, put me at financial wizard status. huh

Edited by sandstorm
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Oh, I get it. Francie is wrong, but you are right. Okay. Go for it, Francie.

Can we just say 'Thank you, Easy. We appreciate your time, thought, and effort to put your raw thoughts out for everyone to read and criticize. Thank you for your bravery, Easy. We know that you know what to expect here, good, bad, and indifferent, and hopefully you will ignore the limited thinkers because you are gracious and were simply offering up your opinion in a well thought out thesis that takes time, though, and effort, which is much more than 99.9999% bother to do. It is so much easier just to sit down and rip.'

There. We said it.

I agree! Thanks easy for the time and energy you put in your opinions. I appreciate your outlook on this investment.wink.gif

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The difference is that I (and Doctor robbins) provided clear support for WHY we are right. Easy and Francie just ignored that and claimed we are wrong. If a country with less than 1/3 of 1% of the worlds GDP can have a money supply valued at double the worlds GDP, then please explain how that would work? How can Iraq attain actual value equal to double the value of the entire planet merely due to their saying so? If it works for them then why not the US or the Euro-zone? The point you seem to be missing (after such a well thought out post on tariffs) is that economies are not arbitrary. Economies function due to rough consistency in value. Iraq telling the rest of the world that "we are now valued at more than double all of you combined and hence now own the entire planet" is simply not possible given the nature of economies. If you think otherwise, then please explain it. Merely ignoring it is not an explanation.

My comment to you had everything to do with your attitude towards Francie, and nothing to do with numbers, facts, or economies:

"...Come on, its just simple arithmetic...."

This was a condescending comment no matter how you look at it.

I do you an apology for including my comments after the first paragraph in the same post. Those comments had nothing to do with you,but with others, and I should have made that more clear. But the first sentence belongs to you. B)

That's it in a nutshell, and thanks for the comment on tariffs.

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Oh, I get it. Francie is wrong, but you are right. Okay. Go for it, Francie.

Can we just say 'Thank you, Easy. We appreciate your time, thought, and effort to put your raw thoughts out for everyone to read and criticize. Thank you for your bravery, Easy. We know that you know what to expect here, good, bad, and indifferent, and hopefully you will ignore the limited thinkers because you are gracious and were simply offering up your opinion in a well thought out thesis that takes time, though, and effort, which is much more than 99.9999% bother to do. It is so much easier just to sit down and rip.'

There. We said it.

Yes, but whos he trying to convince? Easyrider has been speaking his mind for years. Those who have been around no easys opinion. Im confused why hes laying the entire process. but i do appreciate the work put into the post, whether i agree or not is a different story

Edited by sandstorm
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Easy, is that your own stuff or an article you reported? If it's the latter could you pls show link? Thanks..

this is my opinion, why would I need an article? i posted the BIS website for everyone to follow up on, I believe the banks being basil 3 compliant starts the beginning of 2013. Its very interesting to me and many people need to understand we are entering a new economic global banking system whether they wanna believe it or NOT is irrelevant. Bottom line what we have now is obviously NOT working.

Yes, but whos he trying to convince? Easyrider has been speaking his mind for years. Those who have been around no easys opinion. Im confused why hes laying the entire process. but i do appreciate the work put into the post, whether i agree or not is a different story

LOL and you could say the exact same thing about the lopsters. We know their views and opinions yet they remind us every day so why should I need to explain my agenda?It's an opinion piece which i placed in the right category. Thing is no one knows what will happen and yes even the infamous Mr. rich (aka Dinarick) has no clue.

Edited by easyrider
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i posted the BIS website for everyone to follow up on, I believe the banks being basil 3 compliant starts the beginning of 2013. Its very interesting to me and many people need to understand we are entering a new economic global banking system whether they wanna believe it or NOT is irrelevant.

Why don't you summarize how you think Basil III relates to what you claim is possible for an Iraqi RV and this "new global banking system"? What changes will this have?

Basil III from what I read imposes stricter capital requirements (say 4% going to 6.5% but is more complex than a single figure), better stress testing, and better rating systems. All that is good and should go a long way to prevent things like mortgage backed securities getting AAA ratings. It will mean banks will be more conservative and take less risk. But what has that got to do with the mythical RV or some new banking system? As far as I can see Basil III has nothing to do with anything in your post. If I am wrong please spell it out.

You claim that others "can not wrap their heads around economics" while you completely ignore Iraq's gigantic money supply in claims of an RV. You claim a one world currency is coming, yet what we see in the Eurozone is that a common currency without a common monetary policy results in huge difficulties. Expanding such to the entire world is utter nonsense and claiming it will all be lead by Iraq that comprises less than 1/3 of 1% of global GDP and can't even keep the electricity on is laughable.

For those that don't want to wade through the BIS site, the wiki has a summary of the Basil III changes (some of which started in 2011 and continue to be phased in through 2019).

Thing is no one knows what will happen...

Its true that we do not know for sure what WILL happen, but we DO know for sure what can NOT happen. Its like saying no one knows what the weather will be like in San Jose CA tomorrow. That is true, it might have a high of 80, or 81, or 79 or.. But we DO know for sure that tomorrow morning there will not be 3 feet of snow covering all of northern California with a temp of 40 below zero, as that is impossible given the current state of the planet.

We don't know for sure that Iraq will RD, they might change their mind and not do what they have been saying they will do. But we do know for sure that a 1000x overnight RV is impossible.

Edited by jg167
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You said let the bashing begin so here goes. In the first paragraph you threw God into it. I could understand the relevance if this was a theological dissertation but this is supposed to be commentary on an investment. Best to leave religion out of it IMO.

Then you go on to link the RV to Basel III without demonstrating how anything in Basel III suggests that an unprecedented revaluation of a hyperinflated currency should or even could happen.

Next you suggest that people who aren't saying GO RV are either cowards or ignorant about economics. As we've seen demonstrated time and again, the ignorance is on the part of those who believe that a country with a GDP of less than $150 billion and an M2 of over 70 trillion dinar can have the world's most valuable currency. How can you reduce the money supply to a workable level without a redenomination? How do you expect a country whose GDP is almost 90% oil revenues to become a big player in the world's economy? Look at the leaders. They're all diversified.

You go on to suggest an RV to $2 would be ideal, without even mentioning the money supply problem. Then you throw the "pride" factor into the equation, like pride has any bearing in currency valuation.

Sorry, but to me this was a summary of all the guru/pumper BS we've been hearing for the last few years. Neg away!

So, according to your statement God should be confined to Theological discussions? Thats the problem right there. Do think God is going to confine himself to Theological discussions ? Can you confine him with your belief ?

I used to argue with Christians and consider them weak but those people started to pray for me and The Lords hand moved upon me undeniably. When his spirit comes upon you and allows understanding and you then know that you know and cannot argue with the truth that comes upon you, then your life is forever changed, the eyes are opened and things start to make sense that could not be understood concerning the questions about life and more.

God is not a religion. Man creates religion and does dishonor to the intentions and heart of the Lord towards his creation. God does not Change for man but rather man for God. It takes more faith to believe that this world was created by accident rather than by intelligent design. You have proof all around you let alone his presence, power and voice should you dare to go looking. Arrogance towards God has a heavy price.

There is a revival coming soon like no other that will break the grasp of religion and smash it down. For those of you that do not believe as I did not, you will see the spirit of God move on this planet more and more.

Edited by Goodlife
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