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WHEN YOU HAVE PEOPLE SPEAK WITH ' REASONABLE STATEMENTS ' WHICH CAN BE SUBSTANTIATED AND EMOTIONS DON'T TAKE OVER, I TAKE NOTICE. I WOULD LIKE YOUR THOUGHTS NOT BECAUSE I AM A CAST-OFF GURU OR DOOMSDAY NUT. I WOULD WANT THIS NOT TO BE TRUE....... BUT AFTER MUCH STUDY AND 7 YEARS OF THIS INVESTMENT, REASON IS A SAFE HAVEN FOR MANY.

I REMEMBER AS A STUDENT NOT ENJOYING SUNDAY AFTERNOONS BECAUSE IT MEANT SERIOUS STUDY WITH MONDAY CLASSES EVOLVING. NOW DAYS I HAVE DESTAIN FOR FRIDAYS BECAUSE OF FALSE ANTICIPATION AND THE LET DOWN I KNOW MONDAY HOLDS...MORE EMPTY PREDICTONS BITE THE DUST. EFFECTIVELY MANY HAVE WASTED THEIR LIVES ON EMPTY, FICTICIOUS DRAMA BY STORY TELLERS THAT HAVE PROSPERED AT THE BANK. IS THIS THE SLIDE THAT INTEGRITY HAS TAKEN IN OUR COUNTRY? NEW PROFESSIONAL DEGREE FOR HIGHER EDUCATION...' MASTER-AT-BAITER ' WITH A MINOR IN DUPING

NOT MY AUTHOR-SHIP

[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[The typical scenario presented by gurus is that Maliki is a wannabe dictator, and Shabibi refuses to revalue the IQD until Maliki agrees to share the power. The vote of no confidence that we're all hearing about is supposed to pressure Maliki into agreeing to share the power (I think) and if he doesn't agree he'll be removed and the new PM will play ball and then Shabibi can RV and we'll all be rich and live happily ever after. At least that's the way I understand all of this.

Here's the problem. First of all Shabibi has never said he was going to revalue the dinar. When he was in DC last year he was asked about revaluation and he said that they might adjust the exchange rate if inflation got too high. Then in January, most recall, the rate was moved from 1170 to 1166. Whether that was triggered by inflation or not I don't know, but any inflation-related revaluations will likely be similar adjustments rather than a 100,000% increase like many gurus are saying. When Shabibi and the CBI talk about raising the value by deleting the zeros they're talking about a redenomination and not a revaluation as [this being a LOP] we won't go there.. So the idea that Shabibi said he would RV is de-bate-able to say the least.

Secondly, Maliki has nothing to do with revaluation. That is in the hands of the CBI, not the GOI. When the rate moved from 1170 to 1166 back in January that was a decision made by the CBI, not the GOI. There's nothing keeping them from making a similar adjustment right now except that they apparently don't see the justification for it. Maliki is irrelevant in that regard. What Maliki and the GOI do have influence over is the project to delete the three zeros that Shabibi and the CBI have been talking about for two years. That's because this project would require the printing of new currency which has to be voted on and approved by the GOI. At this point it's questionable whether or not there's enough support for it to pass. But the only thing that Maliki can hold up is a redenomination (lop)[sshhhuch] rather than a revaluation.

This misconception in the dinar community has been created by clueless gurus who misrepresent what Shabibi is talking about. They've created this belief in a mythical "RV" that will one day come and change everything for everybody. The global economy will be reset, the nations drowning in debt will be bailed out, and us dinarians will be swimming in millions. As a result, everybody who listens to these guys is wondering "what's the holdup? When do I get my new Lexus, Ferretti, pine-apple island or better yet, ' when does the truth get told so people can adjust to reality?"

The simple answer is that there is no holdup because there is no big RV coming and there never was. It was all a fantasy created through bogus intel and flawed analysis coming from couch professors and con artists. I'm amazed that people spend hours a day reading news articles from Iraq about the day to day political process as though that will have any bearing on anything. Folks, all you have to do is understand a few basic things.

Currencies aren't like stocks. They don't increase in value more than a few % at a time. If they did it would be destructive to the nation's economy as they would have a greater debt liability. (Somebody prove me wrong here. Show me an example of a country where the central bank raised the value of their currency by 100% or more. And don't tell me that's what Kuwait did, because it's not. Their central bank never changed the offical exchange rate.) Companies love it when their stocks increase 15% or more, but countries don't want that to happen with their currency. The idea that Iraq needs the RV because their people are poor is nonsense. There's no quick fix here. If Iraq wants to help their people the best thing for them is to promote education and develop the non-petroleum sectors of their economy to create jobs. That means manufacturing and service based jobs. Raising the value of the currency would hurt them from the standpoint of exports. If they don't lop they'll probably keep it as low as possible just like South Korea has done over the past half century following the war there.

You can't reduce a money supply substantially without a redenomination. This talk about Iraq reducing their money supply by pulling in the larger notes is nonsense. We've been hearing it now for a couple of years and yet the figures on the CBI website indicate that the money supply is growing rather than shrinking. You either believe the gurus who are never right, or the CBI and the IMF. Boy, that's a toughie, huh? And besides, why would a country want to risk deflation by reducing their money supply without a redenomination? It could throw them into a depression. That's why countries who have a currency with a low valuation resulting from hyperinflation either leave the value where it is or lop zeros off of their currency. They NEVER pull in the larger notes, revalue, and issue new lower denoms like these douchebags are telling us will happn.

The current value of the IQD isn't artificial. It's quite real and truly reflective of the wealth of Iraq. Contrary to what the gurus are telling us Iraq isn't a wealthy country. Their GDP (over 80% of which is oil revenues) is ranked around 60th in the world, depending on whose figures you go by. They have a lot of oil, true. So what? So does the US, and we have well-developed non-petroleum sectors too. We also have a well developed infrastructure, a superior military, a stable form of government, an educated populace, and much safer living and working environments. Iraq is sadly deficient in all of these areas, and these are things that are reflected in the value of a nation's currency.

Getting back to Maliki. Will he stay or will he go? Your guess is as good as mine. My guess is that he stays. But whether he stays or goes nobody is going to get rich by owning IQD. I do think your chances of making a profit are better if Maliki stays and the GOI votes down the currency reform measure, but we're not talking substantial profits. In all likelihood most dinarians won't even reach the break-even point for years, and if there's a lop they'll be doing good just to recoup 80% of their investment]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]].........

THIS POST WAS NOT WRITTEN OR AUTHORED BY ME. MY PROFESSION IS MEDICAL. I RESPECT MARCUS CURTIS AND HIS RESEARCH. BUT EVEN PEOPLE WITH FAITH-BASED PRINCIPLES GIVE UP WHEN HUMAN INFLUENCE HAS TOO MUCH UNDER TOW. GREED MAYBE THE UNDER-TOW AND WE MIGHT BE DROWNING IN THE SURF.

Edited by freeze
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My advice, just live how you normally live and forgot about the revaluation. You're signed up for this website, so you will know when it happens by an e-mail. I rarely browse this site except or any others that "call" the revaluation, sometimes I even forget I might be on top of a gold mine! :lol:

Also, your caps lock is on.

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any one with 5 0r 6 hundred dollars worth of dinars are soon going to be millionares .. right after they rv for 3 bucks .. if you have 25000 note worth 23 dollars .. it will be worth 75,000 dollars and thats all in the name of .. because >>>> IRAQ IS DIFFERENT .. THEY HAVE OIL

MOST IRAQIS WILL BE BUYING MOTOR HOMES AND TRAVELING THE WORLD .. NOT DOING ANYTHING ALL BECAUSE >>> IRAQ IS DIFFERENT

THEY ARE RICH ..>>> BECAUSE IRAQ IS DIFFERENT

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While it is his opinion, it is shared by many other members of this site and other sites as well. It's hard to argue economic-based fact and history. While Iraq might be described by some as "unique" or a "novel situation that requires a novel solution", the plain fact is that the numbers and the definitions of known things like redenominations and currency valuations are still at the forefront of all of this. Those that choose to ignore those things can be considered to be ignorant or stupid, but they can still believe what they want. I truly believe that there is a good hybrid solution that will allow us to make some money on this over the next few years. 1000 times our investment? Probably not. A decent return? Maybe, depending on how well Iraq plays the game of a developing country and actually gets things going, not just relying on oil revenue, and especially if they stop their infighting and political drama. We have a long road yet to go, I think. But again, that's just my opinion. We may never see anything at all. That's fine with me. I didn't spend that much money, so I can sleep at night.

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My only issue is that the 'author' conveniently leaves out that Iraq's rebuilding, or restructuring, was done as a revised Marshall Plan. That and the fact that the Iraqi economy is flooded with USD currency of the war. The USD and IQD have been used in concert in Iraq. However, for Iraq to become a truly sovereign nation, it MUST have its' currency, the IQD, as the dominant in country. There are multiple articles that cite the intent to 'de-dollarize' Iraq. How does the GoI, or CBI for that matter, expect to de-dollarize with a currency that is valued no where near the dollar that they intend to remove from the general population? Sure, it is possible that they could issue and executive order stating that no currency will be valued, or traded, higher than the IQD in country but that would not bode well as a large number of foreign countries have IQD in their possession. Bear in mind that the Industrial-Military complex is alive and well and while the military was designed to fight wars, it appears that the government, politicians, and especially big business are more than apt to send troops into harm's way for 'national interests'.

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Simple solution: Make the US Dollar illegal to be used in Iraqi. Allow an exchange during the release of new IQD at the on-part US dollar value for people to turn in old IQD at 1000:1 for new IQD denominations and also trade in US Dollars at 1:1 with the new IQD. All of those "illegal" dollars will go back to the CBI coffers, swelling their foreign currency exchange by probably around 100 - 150%, depending on how much US Dollars are in circulation. Wouldn't that bump in foreign exchange more than account for any "payout" the CBI has to do for internationally-held old IQD that gets routed back to the CBI for exchange? Maybe that's one of the parts of the hybrid solution. The other parts would be bumping growth in non-oil industries and services.

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TQ;; You are very close to what will happen next year ..1000 old dinar will be traded for 1 new dinar .. Then 1.170(aprox ) new dinar will exchange for 1USD. Now on the street if something cost 5 new dinar an Iraqi could use a 5 dinar note OR 5 USD and get some change... The hope is iraqis will begin to prefer to use the dinar and not mess with the change. Merchants would in time avoid trading in USD. Thats what de-dolarization is all about...

I think directly outlawing the dollar is not a good idea. Particularly if they want US tourists or to trade in US goods that must be paid for in USD.

In time the new dinar will trade 1:1 with USD.. My guess is 4-5 years.

Edited by rockfl9
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Freeze,

You need to relax. I think you are way too stressed over this. It will happen as it is supposed to be... no better.... no worse. My advice is to sit back and enjoy the ride.

I've been invested longer than you. Take some time off. enjoy the summer and your soon new-found wealth.

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In asking the question, I'm sure you know that the only way you can "prove" anything is to reject the null hypothesis.... It has most certainly occured to you that the Pearson R table on this would be unwieldly if even possible, and I definately want to be there when you operationalize the variables... hell I want to be there when you identify them ! And we both know there will be some regression from the mean, but do you really think you can explain it at this point? You set a foundation that clearly directs the conclusion, however establishing a directed path of logic, is not the same as "proving" your position.

My point?

None of us including yourself can "prove" anything at this point. None of us have all the pieces. None of us knows the full extent of variable and contravening variables required in the equation. Most of us, including myself don't even know the basic foundations of economic models well enough to intelligently compare them. One of my buds who is a current TV economist and friend of G Dub won't even wrestle with this, let alone weigh in.... And while I don't necessarily disagree with some of the logical points you assert, I would repond to your challenge in saying no one at this point can "prove" anything one way or the other, and it's important we remind ourselves that at best, we can only engage exercise of logical of conjecture based upon only that which we know, ... which may or may not be factual..... in coming to the conclusions with which we choose to live.

Just keeping it real and pushing for clarity midst the increasing chaos of information sharing.....

And btw, I do like many of the points in your logical progression :D

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Following the logic of this thread, let's do a loose comparison:

I shop at Costco once a month for groceries and supplies and spend about $500.00 USD per month. Currently, if an iraqi citizen wants to spend the IQD equivalent for his family he would spend(not getting the calculator) around 500,000 IQD. If he is holding only 25k IQD notes, he would need to carry in 20 notes to make his purchase. If iraq only redenominates and the same person trades in the 25k notes for 100 IQD notes, he would have to lug in a quantity of (5000) 100 IQD notes to make the same purchase.

How does this improve commerce in Iraq? It seems to me it would make it more difficult and serve little purpose, unless they change the prices on everything inside the country. Changing the prices on every single sellable item seems like a PITA as well.

I have no clue how this will turn out but like most here, let us hope for a good return on our investment

Just my :twocents:

Go RV! :twothumbs:

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Following the logic of this thread, let's do a loose comparison:

I shop at Costco once a month for groceries and supplies and spend about $500.00 USD per month. Currently, if an iraqi citizen wants to spend the IQD equivalent for his family he would spend(not getting the calculator) around 500,000 IQD. If he is holding only 25k IQD notes, he would need to carry in 20 notes to make his purchase. If iraq only redenominates and the same person trades in the 25k notes for 100 IQD notes, he would have to lug in a quantity of (5000) 100 IQD notes to make the same purchase.

How does this improve commerce in Iraq? It seems to me it would make it more difficult and serve little purpose, unless they change the prices on everything inside the country. Changing the prices on every single sellable item seems like a PITA as well.

I have no clue how this will turn out but like most here, let us hope for a good return on our investment

to trade in for lower denonination notes the value of the lower note needs to increase .... otherwise there is no point what so ever .... so lets say for example the iraqi trades in 500,000 old IQD @ 1000:1 he will recieve 500 New IQD !!

not 5,000 x 100IQD notes ...... just 5 x 100IQD notes

1 old IQD = $0.000858738

1 new IQD = $0.858738

500,000 old IQD = $429.36

@ 1000 old to 1 new then 500 new IQd would also be equal to £429.36 ..... simple math

What the above describes is a straight up LOP not what any of us want

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Keep an open mind about this invesment & respect other people's opinions as things change by the day.

For the first time, raise or lifting of the three zeros has been replaced by removal of the three zeros by parliament. This sounds more like a LOP than ever before. Removal of the zeros is used several times in this article. Don't neg or shoot the messenger, please. See comments below...

Parliament & Finance Committee support Revalue Of Iraqi Dinar.

Posted: June 25, 2012 in Iraqi Dinar/Politics

ERBIL, June 25 (AKnews) – The Iraqi Parliament and the Finance Committee support the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)’s efforts to revalue of the Iraqi Dinar through the removal of three zeros from the currency.

The CBI has announced that it has finalized plans to remove three zeros from the Iraqi currency in order to revalue it.

Read more. See link below...

http://bit.ly/Ojw2CV

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Keep an open mind about this invesment & respect other people's opinions as things change by the day.

For the first time, raise or lifting of the three zeros has been replaced by removal of the three zeros by parliament. This sounds more like a LOP than ever before. Removal of the zeros is used several times in this article. Don't neg or shoot the messenger, please. See comments below...

Parliament & Finance Committee support Revalue Of Iraqi Dinar.

Posted: June 25, 2012 in Iraqi Dinar/Politics

ERBIL, June 25 (AKnews) – The Iraqi Parliament and the Finance Committee support the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)’s efforts to revalue of the Iraqi Dinar through the removal of three zeros from the currency.

The CBI has announced that it has finalized plans to remove three zeros from the Iraqi currency in order to revalue it.

Read more. See link below...

http://bit.ly/Ojw2CV

So removal of the three zeros from the currency....

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While it is his opinion, it is shared by many other members of this site and other sites as well. It's hard to argue economic-based fact and history. While Iraq might be described by some as "unique" or a "novel situation that requires a novel solution", the plain fact is that the numbers and the definitions of known things like redenominations and currency valuations are still at the forefront of all of this. Those that choose to ignore those things can be considered to be ignorant or stupid, but they can still believe what they want. I truly believe that there is a good hybrid solution that will allow us to make some money on this over the next few years. 1000 times our investment? Probably not. A decent return? Maybe, depending on how well Iraq plays the game of a developing country and actually gets things going, not just relying on oil revenue, and especially if they stop their infighting and political drama. We have a long road yet to go, I think. But again, that's just my opinion. We may never see anything at all. That's fine with me. I didn't spend that much money, so I can sleep at night.

While you MIGHT be right(i hope ur not) in your assessment,your use of the words(ignorant or stupid) to describe those that don't accept your's and others view is just as the words you use. Seeing as We don't know all the facts, to guess its outcome is exactly that. If you base your view on words,government stability or previous economic history then that may be a realistic or probable outcome,but does'nt make it absolute or an RV impossible. Until we know all facts and the outcome has occured then your guess is as good as anyone else's. Respect of others view shows understanding & class. Best to all

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