What happens if Syriza wins the June 17 Greek elections?

[umbertino]

Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras is young and charismatic. Greeks may well trust him with power after June 17, as a genuine opponent of the hated ‘memorandum’ (MOU) of internationally imposed reforms. The question is how much his anti-austerity rhetoric would be moderated by the responsibility of office.

EU leaders have warned Greece clearly that it if it reneges on its agreements, its bailout will cease and it could be forced out of the euro, hoping that between now and the elections, electors will incline towards the pro-austerity parties. Tsipras has banked on a new, pro-growth mood in the EU leadership allowing Greece to negotiate better terms. Failing that, a Syriza government might have to give way in the other direction. His astute handling of the abortive attempts post-May 6 to form a new coalition suggests willingness to make necessary concessions towards austerity.

Michael Taylor

Senior Analyst, Eastern Europe

Analysis

Syriza looks ahead in Greek coalition-forming talks

9th May 2012

The exploratory programme Syriza has drafted to put to the other parties [during coalition-forming negotiations] continues to evolve. The latest version calls for: immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries; [and] immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as ending collective labour agreements… The use of the word 'impending' is telling. It implies that Tsipras is willing to let the rigorous austerity measures taken during the first two years of the MOU stand -- to stem the tide rather than reverse it.

New Greek elections may spark euro exit and contagion

16th May 2012

At present, no major Greek party supports a deliberate exit from the euro and a consistent 70% or more of Greeks favour continued membership. Syriza has stressed its commitment to continued membership and is unlikely to shift its position. However, should it lead the next government, the requirement either to impose capital controls (potentially breaching EU law) or rapidly recapitalise collapsed banks in a crisis -- a process already under way, with 18 billion euros in European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bonds already committed and at least another 5 billion euros (possibly more) scheduled to come -- could force Greece to exit the euro.

Germans reject Greek leftist's plan to resolve crisis

23rd May 2012

In Greece, momentum appears to be building around youthful, charismatic leftist leader Alexis Tsipras ahead of the June 17 elections; electors like to hear that Greece can simultaneously tear up the pledges to reform that go with its international bailouts, remain within the euro-area and continue to receive foreign finance. Tsipras yesterday defended in Berlin his economic policy if he won the elections: … the crisis threatens not just Greece but all Europe, austerity has failed and policy must turn towards stimulating growth. Germany's Social Democrat party leader Sigmar Gabriel told Tsipras Greece must honour its agreements; the Christian Democrats refused to meet him. In a Deutsche Welle interview, Tsipras said Greece's European partners would have to negotiate with a Syriza government if the Greek people elected it.

http://www.oxan.com/analysis/dailybrief/insight/JuneGreekElections.aspx

[emmet]

Umb thanks for your posts.

[umbertino]

Umb thanks for your posts.

My pleasure, my Friend.

[waterman13]

Umbertino,

Not really sure what will happen in Greece, and the repercussions it will have in the EU. Global economic problems, EU crisis, US economy in the tank, etc. But things are real interesting right now, with Syria's problems, Iranian sanctions, elections in Egypt, all of Iraq's issues, WTO meeting coming up, UNSC meeting coming up, and the Bilderburg meeting in Virginia going on now. Interesting time in history.

Frustrating to not know what is happening exactly, but I am not big on patience, think God is teaching me a lesson there.

WM13

[umbertino]

Umbertino,

Not really sure what will happen in Greece, and the repercussions it will have in the EU. Global economic problems, EU crisis, US economy in the tank, etc. But things are real interesting right now, with Syria's problems, Iranian sanctions, elections in Egypt, all of Iraq's issues, WTO meeting coming up, UNSC meeting coming up, and the Bilderburg meeting in Virginia going on now. Interesting time in history.

Frustrating to not know what is happening exactly, but I am not big on patience, think God is teaching me a lesson there.

WM13

If Greece blows up ( I do hope it doesn't) it will be a problem but somehow the other EU Countries will be capable of dealing with it..Greece's economy is small compared to many other EU Nations

But if Spain blows up......It will be a huge problem and likely willl start a dragging effect on other Countries in a short time.. For sure Portugal, Italy and probably France.

Let's hope for the Best.

Edited June 1, 2012 by umbertino

[waterman13]

If Greece blows up ( I do hope it doesn't) it will be a problem but somehow the other EU Countries will be capable of dealing with it..Greece's economy is small compared to many other EU Nations

But if Spain blows up......It will be a huge problem and likely willl start a dragging effect on other Countries in a short time.. For sure Portugal, Italy and probably France.

Let's hope for the Best.

Umbertino,

I agree 100%. Something has to happen globally in my opinion. This fiat currency system needs a boost, something to prop it up for a while, not for very long either in my opinion, maybe a couple of years. It will eventually collapse. Houses of cards always do, lies and deceit always are uncovered in time (light conquers darkness). It will be very interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks / months to say the least. The world is on the brink of a global economic collapse the way I see it, something has to happen. What that is? I do not know. Wish I did, I am tired of trying to "guess" what will happen.

WM13

Edited June 1, 2012 by waterman13

[parmenio]

My hope and those of many others is that Syriza wins the elections. Because they are far left marxists Greece will, IMHO, be forced out of the eurozone. This will be the best thing for the Greeks! They need to re-read their history and learn that austerity had brought them GREATNESS..., not handouts!!!