Dinar Rumor Questions about Pacsters Post on DDT- SERVING LOPSTER?

[DgreenFSU66]

Guys, i`m no economist, however, Pacsters post really made me do some thinking. He states that the total M2 is 46 TRILLION +.. I question these figures..Where is this posted???? Is this Dinar??? 46 Trillion Dinar... divided by the exchange rate is only a little over 39 Billion USD... is M2 counted in USD??? if that is the case... then how could they cover over 148 Trillion in Currency out in M2???

I disagree with him, and his term of redonmination... he cited that Investopedia explains Redenomination

1. For example, the Bulgarian lev was redenominated due to inflation arising at the end of the Second World War. After the redenomination, one "new" lev was equal to 100 "old" levs. The lev was redenominated three times in the twentieth century.

2. A recent example of redenomination arose when the euro was introduced and the denomination on many European securities had to be changed to the euro.

My family is from Italy... i remember when they went to the Euro... The Lira was WORTHLESS... Now they have 3 times the purchasing power than they had back in the late 90`s. Redenomination worked for Italy....

My Guess on this whole ride is this: If the total M2 is really 46 Trillion in US Dollars.. then one could plainly see that a LOP and then a RV would be in order...they would LOP the 000`s off of the 46 Trillion down to 46 Billion then a RV of 3.22 would put the total M2 at 1.48 Trillion

BUT, If the M2 is in Dinar.. then bring on the RV and everytime i eat Lopster, it will be with a big grin on my face..... Hmmm what was it i just read????

oh, yeah i just read the IMF report....

http://www.imf.org/external/np/loi/2010/irq/020810.pdf

it stated the following:

Table 1. Iraq: Quantitative Performance Criteria

Under the Stand-By Arrangement, 2009–10 1/

(In billions of Iraqi dinars, unless otherwise indicated)

They way i read it, it is only 46 Trillion Dinar in M2 or the equal USD amount of 39 Billion USD.

If someone who is better versed in M2 and Macro Economics could help me understand this, i`d be very grateful... ARTIST AND WRITERS WHERE ARE YOU??? HELP!!!

[Teresa82]

you make a very well thought out point. I would like to hear a counter for this....Anybody?

[range]

i highly doubt there is 46 trillion out there - if there is CBI probably has 40 trillion of them so it wouldnt be an issue

[DgreenFSU66]

And im sure they can cover 39 Billion us dollars at a 1 to 1 exchange..... heck they had that back in 2003 when we went in Iraq... and do not forget the interview in 2007 with the Senior Bush Advisor to the CBI who stated that in 2005 the Dinar was backed "DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR" by the USD.

How about this article?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/06/world/middleeast/06surplus.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Bank+of+iraq&st=nyt

[Guest marketralley]

The truth is this. Nobody knows what the real M0 is in Iraq. They have not released numbers since 1998 . That is fact. So for Pacster to try to say they have this or that is a lie.

Without the true M0 numbers Pacsters formulas are unfounded.

Now, Phenox will undoubtedly rebutt what Pacster said, and he will definetly use the M0 figures against Pacster.

For the record, anybody that knows economy knows that Iraq has kept tight lips on their numbers.

[DgreenFSU66]

Marketralley- Interesting point.. didnt know that... Thx

[Kent]

And im sure they can cover 39 Billion us dollars at a 1 to 1 exchange..... heck they had that back in 2003 when we went in Iraq... and do not forget the interview in 2007 with the Senior Bush Advisor to the CBI who stated that in 2005 the Dinar was backed "DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR" by the USD.

How about this article?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/06/world/middleeast/06surplus.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Bank+of+iraq&st=nyt

Dgreen, If you are looking for the actual data, the most updated and credible source seems to be the CBI:

http://www.cbi.iq/xl&wr/key%20financial.xls (You have to click thru a few yes' to get there but it will open.) It shows M2 at 46Trillion Dinar. I don't believe Packster's point was that the current reserves (your reference to $39Billion Dollar conversion) is inadequate. His point is that a 1:1 RV would convert that to $46 Trillion DOLLARS. Then he was comparing the expense of an RV to relying upon oil reserves and increased oil production to fund that currency revaluation.

FYI, The closest I can find for M0 (although in my opinion it is a useless figure for discussion) is line 73 on the same chart "Currency Outside Banks" which seems to be the exact definition of M0. That amount is shy of 22Trillion Dinar. Since either an RV or a LOP would involve cash in bank accounts, I don't think it is the correct figure to use for discussions relating to the cost or reserve adequacy of CBI - but there it is and here is a site with a summary of simplified definitions of different money supply figures: http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00565

That same site has information about consolidated M2 for 138 countries making up 98.4% of global GDP and his figure is $50Trillion Dollars in 2009. http://dollardaze.org/blog/?page_id=00023

My understanding is that IMF wants about a 25% currency reserve. The CBI indicates (line 74 in the first link) just shy of 21Trillion Dinar.

Those are the best facts I can find related to your post. Questions I don't have the answers to:

25% of which Money Supply figure?

Will that requirement even apply if we assume chapter VII released?

How high can Iraq trade their currency based on optomism (independent of reserves if no reserve requirement applies)? Enorrset used to talk about a 10% reserve guideline I believe.

I will leave othes to work these numbers and consider what Iraq can afford.

Kent