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The News We Have Been Waiting For


dinarck
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Wow, this article has certainly gotten the GO-RV crowd excited!

I have said a billion times that they may or may not RD and I am here waiting to see if they will or not. I have said a billion times that if they dont then the value could rise slowly over a long period of time.

Exactly. The have "postponed" the RD. I don't see why, but an RD has always just been a connivence for Iraq. Its important for dinar investors as once it kicks in it makes an RV obviously impossible (for those that do not seem to understand that from just the basic economics).

The idea that they must either RD or RV is a false dichotomy. They do not have to do anything. Their economy is working with modest inflation and good growth. Eventually they certainly will do an RD but there is no particular hurry. Its too bad for the GO-RV'ers since now they can continue in their fantasy. Maybe the schedule will change again after Shabibi addresses parliament.

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Yeah. This is the reason I started this post. To start a discussion on how fast the value could rise. If I am not mistaken they went from 4000 to 1166 in 9 years. I suck at math but that is a pretty big increase in less than ten years. I was really hoping to get responses from people who have been here since the beggining and remember how those jumps happened and when.

The problem like you have already pointed out is the massive amount of dinar in cirulation and in exsistence now. This is something that needs to be considered when speculating how how fast the value can rise.

If they duplicated what they did from 2003-2006 for the next 3-5 years we could probably see $.10.

Increase value by about 3-5 Dinars on a daily (or almost) basis. While they are doing this it would strengthen each individual currency unit, which means they could technically take out a small chunk of Dinars on a daily (or almost) daily basis. I guess the trick would be to maintain the same amount of value throughout Iraq but using less dinar, which in turn gives each dinar in circulation a slightly higher value.

Thoughts?

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If they duplicated what they did from 2003-2006 for the next 3-5 years we could probably see $.10.

Increase value by about 3-5 Dinars on a daily (or almost) basis. While they are doing this it would strengthen each individual currency unit, which means they could technically take out a small chunk of Dinars on a daily (or almost) daily basis. I guess the trick would be to maintain the same amount of value throughout Iraq but using less dinar, which in turn gives each dinar in circulation a slightly higher value.

Thoughts?

I think you've nailed what "the trick" would be. I'm not sure it's as easy to remove currency from circulation as it is to inject currency into the economy.

That actually gets me thinking of something else...how have they been injecting so much extra currency into the economy over the years? Has it been in social welfare, extra wages, etc etc? I would think that if there has been so much extra cash floating around in an economy, one or two things would have happened.

Either quality of life would have increased signifiacantly, or inflation would be through the roof. Inflation seems to be pretty much in check, and I'm not sure that the quality of life has improved significantly either.

Just makes me wonder where all the extra cash has ended up?

One of the questions that I've always had about the dinar, is the currency in circulation figure, compared to the exchange rate.

We know that they have to back their currency 100% with foreign reserves under IMF Article XIV (or whatever article it is). I have always wondered what comes first? Has the exchange rate stayed the same, due to the amount of currency being printed and released, or has the amount of currency increased to keep pace with increasing foreign reserves, thereby maintaining the exchange rate?

I agree that if they can withdraw the currency on a "par" basis with increasing the exchange rate, then they can increase the rate incrementally over time. The only problem is, people have to be willing to turn the currency in. This might not be a problem in Iraq, if they can get something valuable to them in return like lower denominations, or $US. The lower denominations create a problem in themselves though, as if they are only changing the exchange rate in small increments, the lower denominations are going to be impractical.

The other problem is the amount of dinar held outside the country. I wouldn't think that there would be too many people outside Iraq who are going to exchange until it reaches at least a cent, and most will ride it out for as long as they can. If there is too much currency outside of Iraq, this will mean that they won't be able to draw as much in, and therefore won't be able to adjust the rate a significant amount.

The currency in circulation figures are a massive problem. If the figures are right, not saying they are or they aren't, but if they are right, I'm not sure how they overcome it.

I keep hanging on the article that I read a while back about traders, petrol stations etc not accepting worn, or even slightly torn notes, and then banks refusing to exchange those notes for new. I hope that there was a few trillion of those notes that ended up as fire starters.

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I don't know why anyone would think the CBI loves the idea of selling their dinars to speculators, because what they receive into their reserves is likely to be paid back out in due time. If anything, with further appreciation will only allow for more depletion of their reserves as the value appreciates over time. Therefore, I would argue that is a moot point as I don't think the CBI really cares.

Postponed.... (Until further notice) which means it is not entirely off the table. However, in my opinion it is still good news because the CBI will have to look into taking other measures in regards to their currency.

Here is my from afar thoughts: I think the GOI realizes how much money will be coming into their country & they think that a R/D will not necessarily be the quick band-aid when the foreign investments pouring in may create the demand to help appreciate the value. If we look at recent events, factors that may contribute to that:

Kuwait: 50+ companies looking to invest into Iraq (Remember how they bought up about 5 billion into the ISX?) Removal of ch. 7 seems to be any day now and that may simply help with foreign affairs.

Oil production - it is only going to go up, as they simply fix their bottle neck issues. You can pump as much as you want, but you still need to find ways to export it. But, with contracts and other companies that are working to expand this, it'll only increase. Remember, they just started 1 floating platform with the intention to have many more.

As the factors I listed above and many likely unmentioned consolidate together, it will only help overall to the economy. Progression in their local economy will create growth, which leads to more jobs which leads to more growth and so forth.

The progress that has been made in recent years will only continue to grow. Even in the media it appears that the tides are turning and we hear less about violence and more about overall improvement in their lifestyle. We see that their GOI has their issues, but which government in the world flows smoothly? If they can work out their in-differences, progress will be made.

I'm going to find it really interesting on what we see from the media in the future: Will we still see removal of 3 zero articles? Will we see the CBI officials quoting future expectations of the currency? Or will any talk of the value & the future of the dinar be untouched until more agreements on the future of it can be made.

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I think you've nailed what "the trick" would be. I'm not sure it's as easy to remove currency from circulation as it is to inject currency into the economy.

That actually gets me thinking of something else...how have they been injecting so much extra currency into the economy over the years? Has it been in social welfare, extra wages, etc etc? I would think that if there has been so much extra cash floating around in an economy, one or two things would have happened.

Either quality of life would have increased signifiacantly, or inflation would be through the roof. Inflation seems to be pretty much in check, and I'm not sure that the quality of life has improved significantly either.

Just makes me wonder where all the extra cash has ended up?

One of the questions that I've always had about the dinar, is the currency in circulation figure, compared to the exchange rate.

We know that they have to back their currency 100% with foreign reserves under IMF Article XIV (or whatever article it is). I have always wondered what comes first? Has the exchange rate stayed the same, due to the amount of currency being printed and released, or has the amount of currency increased to keep pace with increasing foreign reserves, thereby maintaining the exchange rate?

I agree that if they can withdraw the currency on a "par" basis with increasing the exchange rate, then they can increase the rate incrementally over time. The only problem is, people have to be willing to turn the currency in. This might not be a problem in Iraq, if they can get something valuable to them in return like lower denominations, or $US. The lower denominations create a problem in themselves though, as if they are only changing the exchange rate in small increments, the lower denominations are going to be impractical.

The other problem is the amount of dinar held outside the country. I wouldn't think that there would be too many people outside Iraq who are going to exchange until it reaches at least a cent, and most will ride it out for as long as they can. If there is too much currency outside of Iraq, this will mean that they won't be able to draw as much in, and therefore won't be able to adjust the rate a significant amount.

The currency in circulation figures are a massive problem. If the figures are right, not saying they are or they aren't, but if they are right, I'm not sure how they overcome it.

I keep hanging on the article that I read a while back about traders, petrol stations etc not accepting worn, or even slightly torn notes, and then banks refusing to exchange those notes for new. I hope that there was a few trillion of those notes that ended up as fire starters.

Great thoughts....

Yes, for each currency unit that exists in circulation, it shares from the same foreign cash reserves. So, technically speaking, if the money supply remains constant and the reserves increase than each unit should rise. If the money supply were to decrease and the reserves were to remain constant, once again each unit "should" appreciate in value. Now, if the money supply of circulation decreased while the cash foreign reserves "also" increased, than we could or should see more of a significant value adjustment.

What we are not seeing is a decrease in circulation, but we are seeing over time an increase in foreign cash reserves. But, that is met by a balanced increase in their circulation. This is what it "appears" to be on paper, but in reality "could" be different.

Their IMF article they're presently in requires them to back their currency 100% with liquid assets. Liquid assets may include the following: USD, Euros, SDRs, GBP, certain types of gold, etc. So as of now, what does not back their currency is non-liquid assets, such as land, natural resources, etc. If the IMF article can amend to allow that, than significance change should be noticed.

To put how it currently works for them into perspective: Imagine if you were a teacher attempting to teach students about currency, you could have students trade their USD for the class monopoly money.. The Teacher could hold the monopoly currency in reserves and release upon exchange of USD. If the teacher was taking a small fee upon buying/selling, this would mean that the students would get less in return of USD when they exchange back. Each class monopoly currency has an equal dollar to back it, but the teacher would slowly make profits (minus operating costs, etc).

... If some of the students started to sell back because they thought the currency was pointless, the teacher could up the buy/sell after some of them cashed out to prevent others from doing the same. Possibilities are endless on how they could work it out.

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The good news is that even tho there's still around 30 trillion dinar in circulation there is 62 billion in USD backing it so they could realistically increase the value up to 3 times if they wanted to. Depending on how much more currency is removed in the future and how much their economy grows it could possibly become worth a lot more - at least I'm hoping. I agree with dinarck that I don't see how they can just put an arbitrary value on it - like $1 - at the current time but I'm open to any ideas on how we can make a profit on our investment.

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The good news is that even tho there's still around 30 trillion dinar in circulation there is 62 billion in USD backing it so they could realistically increase the value up to 3 times if they wanted to. Depending on how much more currency is removed in the future and how much their economy grows it could possibly become worth a lot more - at least I'm hoping. I agree with dinarck that I don't see how they can just put an arbitrary value on it - like $1 - at the current time but I'm open to any ideas on how we can make a profit on our investment.

Actually it is more like 60 trillion or more if you count total M2.

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Council of Ministers postponed the process of removing the zeros from the national currency

This means to me only one thing "RV"

Faith and patience

GO RV

Actually quite the opposite...if they are postponing the removal of the 3 zero what it means is that the rate is going to stay the same for awhile and still use the 25k notes on the street to buy a loaf of bread.

If they were to RV the 3 zero notes will be impractical :(

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I'm new here so bear with me please... I've never posted in the lopzone before and do not intend on belittling or being belittled. With that said, I had a thought and wanted to get opinions.

With the 3 zeros off the table (for now), would this idea be possible?

I know there's been talk of Pres O extending the protection of Iraqs money for another year. Could there be something put in place to cover an RV of a larger significance?

I've read many times here and in other places that most Dinars cashed in here in the US would not even make it back to Iraq. Would it be possible for the US to

agree that any and all Dinar cashed in here be held and be used merely for the purchase of oil? And with a stated and agreed upon amount to be used each year so

that to not be detrimental to Iraqs economy and at the same time providing the US with a cash flow to dedicate merely to the purchase of oil? And as the Iraqi economy, and value of the Dinar

grows, so does the value of currency the US has to spend. Just a thought... I may be way off but then again, I'm new and expect to be off more than I'm on...

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Of course I am not saying that they cannot move the exchange rate. I am only saying that they cannot move in by any significant amount overnight. 4 pips isnt much to even talk about and I only think they did it in an attempt to strengthen the value of the dinar in the face of a huge demand for dollars as they slipped across their borders. That demand for dollars actually lessened the actual value of the dinar so the CBI stepped in. In their own words that action failed. What does this tell us? Well for one it tells us that they cannot declare the dinar to be valued at whatever they want all of a sudden. It is in a hyperinflated state so basically all they can do is attempt to keep it stable by instituting auctions to keep USD in high supply which lowers its demand effectively keeping the value of the dinar stable. This is how their system works and as long as there is 60 trillion dinar in exsistence and they are pegged to the dollar then this is how it will continue to work.

Again my question is to everyone, how can they change this system and raise the value of the dinar in a short enough amount of time for us to profit.

I have already read opinions on how the RD not happening means a massive upcoming RV but that is fantasy. It is a complete impossibility for them to RV out of a hyperinflated state overnight. Anyone who disagrees please explain LOGICALLY how it can be done. Otherwise lets please discuss reality and try and think of ways other than economic delusion that may make some money for us here.

I do not think you are being unreasonable in your post. Its good to discuss and think and look at the IQD situation. Its good. Its perspective

For me, I look at the oil. Thats the critical issue in any increase in value. Iraq is already pulling in good money from export receipts and they are reinvesting a lot back into oil recovery and infrastructure. Thats a really good sign for a strengthening of the IQD. I look at things like oil field development contracts with big international consortium's and the commissioning of the new floating oil platforms off Basra. One of these platforms is recently up and going and is starting to make an impression in pumping volumes, setting a new record. The 2nd platform is supposed to be in operation this month. 2 others are being constructed. These have the capability of keeping up with oil extraction coming from the big contracts awarded a few years ago.

I believe that these these floating platforms are very important to the value of the currency this year as it will increase the export receipts in a positive way. This has to have an impact on the value of The IQD . So I see a positive oil export curve appearing very soon which will usher in the historically significant Iraq oil boom. The other thing I look at is that there is no other country in the world that I am aware of that has so much oil and gas and is doing something very significant about extracting it but has such a low dollar value. Oil is very valuable and the economies of the world needs it bad. I am very confidant that the IQD value will start to reflect that very soon.

I have other significant reasons for believing that this will be good and they are all starting to stack up. I will put my neck out and say I expect something significant to start happening in August or early September this year.

So ,each to his own but I am in this for a reason and here I shall stay. ;)

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I'm new here so bear with me please... I've never posted in the lopzone before and do not intend on belittling or being belittled. With that said, I had a thought and wanted to get opinions.

With the 3 zeros off the table (for now), would this idea be possible?

I know there's been talk of Pres O extending the protection of Iraqs money for another year. Could there be something put in place to cover an RV of a larger significance?

I've read many times here and in other places that most Dinars cashed in here in the US would not even make it back to Iraq. Would it be possible for the US to

agree that any and all Dinar cashed in here be held and be used merely for the purchase of oil? And with a stated and agreed upon amount to be used each year so

that to not be detrimental to Iraqs economy and at the same time providing the US with a cash flow to dedicate merely to the purchase of oil? And as the Iraqi economy, and value of the Dinar

grows, so does the value of currency the US has to spend. Just a thought... I may be way off but then again, I'm new and expect to be off more than I'm on...

This idea is something the pumpers made up and successfully led many to believe as fact.

Here is the problem. Iraq would basically be giving the US trillions of dollars worth of oil for free.

So the US buys 4 trillion dinar for 4 billion USD. Then 10 years later receive 4 trillion worth of oil for their 4 billion initial investment? How is that possible or how would that be good for Iraq. Giving away 3 triilion 996 billion dollars worth of oil for free isnt something any country does. EVER.

I guess Iraq wouldnt even need oil if they were able to RV themselves 10s of trillions worth of wealth anyway. I guess the US wouldnt need dinar either because they could just "RV" the dollar to be whatever value they want and buy all the oil they want anywhere in the world for basically nothing. Can you see now that this isnt how the world works?

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I do not think you are being unreasonable in your post. Its good to discuss and think and look at the IQD situation. Its good. Its perspective

For me, I look at the oil. Thats the critical issue in any increase in value. Iraq is already pulling in good money from export receipts and they are reinvesting a lot back into oil recovery and infrastructure. Thats a really good sign for a strengthening of the IQD. I look at things like oil field development contracts with big international consortium's and the commissioning of the new floating oil platforms off Basra. One of these platforms is recently up and going and is starting to make an impression in pumping volumes, setting a new record. The 2nd platform is supposed to be in operation this month. 2 others are being constructed. These have the capability of keeping up with oil extraction coming from the big contracts awarded a few years ago.

I believe that these these floating platforms are very important to the value of the currency this year as it will increase the export receipts in a positive way. This has to have an impact on the value of The IQD . So I see a positive oil export curve appearing very soon which will usher in the historically significant Iraq oil boom. The other thing I look at is that there is no other country in the world that I am aware of that has so much oil and gas and is doing something very significant about extracting it but has such a low dollar value. Oil is very valuable and the economies of the world needs it bad. I am very confidant that the IQD value will start to reflect that very soon.

I have other significant reasons for believing that this will be good and they are all starting to stack up. I will put my neck out and say I expect something significant to start happening in August or early September this year.

So ,each to his own but I am in this for a reason and here I shall stay. ;)

I agree 100%. Future oil profits will lead to increasing the value of the dinar if they leave the RD off of the table. The question is how much and how quickly. At 2.5 MBD they are still having to borrow money to meet their budget. If they doubled that output then obviously they would be running a surplus every year. How much this would effect the IQD value and how quickly is what this thread is about.

Thanks for your thoughts.

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I agree 100%. Future oil profits will lead to increasing the value of the dinar if they leave the RD off of the table. The question is how much and how quickly. At 2.5 MBD they are still having to borrow money to meet their budget. If they doubled that output then obviously they would be running a surplus every year. How much this would effect the IQD value and how quickly is what this thread is about.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Who knows how much and how fast it will rise, but -

I do not expect it to RV like many do, in one hit, but instead rapidly rise under Bull market pressure, when the IQD does undergo a deliberate market correction helped on by big oil and a removal from sanctions which should occur in June.

Many many countries have much more debt, have no way out to pay it back but have a vastly higher valued dollar.

Iraq is effectively borrowing to invest in their oil infrastructure unlike many other countries who borrow just to pay interest to service a ever growing mountain of debt that they are never likely to get out of. Iraq will most likely always have debt if they want to press forward hard. But its good debt and can be paid off at will. ( not considering War debt here)

Compare Iraq's situation with many developed countries and the dollar value comparison doesnt make any sense.

The Iraq govt can behave without wisdom for years but as long as the oil ministry keeps a determination to pump oil then the big consortium's contracts will increase the IQD for Iraq and help bring prosperity to the nation.

For the benefit of Iraq there has to be a significant correction soon after the sanctions are off and the increased oil flow shows a big future growth curve to support it.

Even Afghanistan has a much better exchange rate at 50-1 which defies comprehension in comparison to Iraq. What do they produce ? Basket case of a country but their dollar is over 20 times more valuable :blink:

Regarding loping and zeros- Loping has never made any sense to me or to achieve what the Iraq govt want to do, but they will have to remove some zeros at some point as the currency grows in value.

I do not believe that any precedence will be found to what will happen to Iraq shortly, except maybe Kuwait . One thing is reasonably certain is that big valuation shifts in short spaces of time can create volatility, especially in a likely Bull market and that is what I am expecting in the near future, after June.

I can see the IQD being very popular and in big demand once momentum and intention kicks in and this should reverse the slide against the US it is currently facing through unusual demand for unusual reasons for the US currency.

So hang onto your hats I reckon we are in for a bumpy but exciting ride. B)

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I agree 100%. Future oil profits will lead to increasing the value of the dinar if they leave the RD off of the table. The question is how much and how quickly. At 2.5 MBD they are still having to borrow money to meet their budget. If they doubled that output then obviously they would be running a surplus every year. How much this would effect the IQD value and how quickly is what this thread is about.

Thanks for your thoughts.

If GDP (mostly oil exports) grows faster than inflation then certainly its possible they will make up the difference by raising the exchange rate. But, would think that will occur whether they RD or not.
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I agree 100%. Future oil profits will lead to increasing the value of the dinar if they leave the RD off of the table. The question is how much and how quickly. At 2.5 MBD they are still having to borrow money to meet their budget. If they doubled that output then obviously they would be running a surplus every year. How much this would effect the IQD value and how quickly is what this thread is about.

Thanks for your thoughts.

This is true UNLESS they keep printing more and more dinar...if more Dinar is printed and more oil is pumped it will only even itself out in the end. Let's hope they keep it at their "measly" 30 Trillion! laugh.gif

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This is true UNLESS they keep printing more and more dinar...if more Dinar is printed and more oil is pumped it will only even itself out in the end. Let's hope they keep it at their "measly" 30 Trillion! laugh.gif

True. We have had conversations before trying to figure out how they could deal with the inflated money supply and the last thing we want is for them to inflate it further. Unfortunately this is the pattern we have seen but fortunately they have managed to increase their reserves to match the increase in the money supply. As long as this balance continues then increased oil profits should cause a positive impact on the value of the IQD. Hopefully.

If GDP (mostly oil exports) grows faster than inflation then certainly its possible they will make up the difference by raising the exchange rate. But, would think that will occur whether they RD or not.

Yeah, I hate to admit that a RD is obviously their best option but I really hope they dont. As long as they dont then I dont see why we wont see a long term appreciation in value. Bring it on.

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Yeah, I hate to admit that a RD is obviously their best option but I really hope they dont. As long as they dont then I dont see why we wont see a long term appreciation in value. Bring it on.

But my point was that any long term appreciation of the dinar is independent (just financially speaking) of whether they RD or do not RD. The RD is revenue neutral. Long term appreciation is about the value of the money supply (not changed by an RD) versus their GDP. If they RD there may be additional logistical issues, like how long will the current IQD be exchangeable and will it be exchangeable anywhere other than dealers with their big margins. But ignoring those potential logistical issues (which migh be serious) if the new-dinar appreciates over that ten year period, so will the IQD since the rate between the two is locked. Of course long term appreciation is by no means certain.

So is it the logistical issues you are concerned about? Or is there some other reason you think an RD would inhibit long term appreciation of the (new) dinar?

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Who knows how much and how fast it will rise, but -

I do not expect it to RV like many do, in one hit, but instead rapidly rise under Bull market pressure, when the IQD does undergo a deliberate market correction helped on by big oil and a removal from sanctions which should occur in June.

Many many countries have much more debt, have no way out to pay it back but have a vastly higher valued dollar.

Iraq is effectively borrowing to invest in their oil infrastructure unlike many other countries who borrow just to pay interest to service a ever growing mountain of debt that they are never likely to get out of. Iraq will most likely always have debt if they want to press forward hard. But its good debt and can be paid off at will. ( not considering War debt here)

Compare Iraq's situation with many developed countries and the dollar value comparison doesnt make any sense.

The Iraq govt can behave without wisdom for years but as long as the oil ministry keeps a determination to pump oil then the big consortium's contracts will increase the IQD for Iraq and help bring prosperity to the nation.

For the benefit of Iraq there has to be a significant correction soon after the sanctions are off and the increased oil flow shows a big future growth curve to support it.

Even Afghanistan has a much better exchange rate at 50-1 which defies comprehension in comparison to Iraq. What do they produce ? Basket case of a country but their dollar is over 20 times more valuable :blink:

Regarding loping and zeros- Loping has never made any sense to me or to achieve what the Iraq govt want to do, but they will have to remove some zeros at some point as the currency grows in value.

I do not believe that any precedence will be found to what will happen to Iraq shortly, except maybe Kuwait . One thing is reasonably certain is that big valuation shifts in short spaces of time can create volatility, especially in a likely Bull market and that is what I am expecting in the near future, after June.

I can see the IQD being very popular and in big demand once momentum and intention kicks in and this should reverse the slide against the US it is currently facing through unusual demand for unusual reasons for the US currency.

So hang onto your hats I reckon we are in for a bumpy but exciting ride. B)

It doesn't defy comprehension when youre aware of the fact that Iraq has an M2 of around 70 trillion and Afghanistan has an M2 of Around 250 billion. It's not what each currency unit is worth, it's what the TOTAL is worth, and Iraq has about THREE HUNDRED TIMES as much currency in circulation as Afghanistan.

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I'm new to this area of the form,but just wondering,has anyone ever asked via a poll how long people are planning to wait on this investment? I guess if you bought a couple hundred dollars worth, then you could stick it in your cookie jar and just wait it out and 20 years from now, use it as cat litter. But I'm assuming some folks have bought thousands if not tens of thousands, so how long do they plan on waiting this out? Would another 10 years be prudent?

Just asking.

Thanks! :)

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I'm new to this area of the form,but just wondering,has anyone ever asked via a poll how long people are planning to wait on this investment? I guess if you bought a couple hundred dollars worth, then you could stick it in your cookie jar and just wait it out and 20 years from now, use it as cat litter. But I'm assuming some folks have bought thousands if not tens of thousands, so how long do they plan on waiting this out? Would another 10 years be prudent?

Just asking.

Thanks! :)

I am in dire straits financially in this period so if it doesn't RV reasonably soon ( end of 2012 / beginning of 2013) I'll have to sell a part of my holdings.. Hopefully not all...

I tried and were able to resist until now ( bought in 2004) but it won't be long till I have to sell.

It remains to be seen if I'll be able to sell, too.

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