Steve Enorrste's Analysis of the RV

[Flyboy42]

I agree with Enorste... If Shabs had the complete power, he'd have already RV'd. Shabs may be a thorn in Maliki's side, but that's all. Ultimately, Maliki has control. If they oust him, it'll take time to form a new government. Either way, we wait... JMO

[Captjohn]

All of this speculation is based upon a series of assumptions, any one of which could derail the entire thing. Therefore, rather than speculating on a next possible date for the RV it is my opinion that we should concentrate our energy on seeing how the political crisis unfolds. I do NOT believe Shabibi will act prior to a resolution of this crisis.

I hope that my views have helped some of you and that your patience, like mine, will be extended somewhat.

Steve

There it is!

The unknown factor in all this is what is going on "behind the curtain" with the GOI, Maliki, and the other Iraqi power brokers. That may well be the key to how and when an RV will eventually take place.....and something we will never be privy to.

[keepmwlknfny]

Shabibi himself made this comment, "There will be no RV not until the Government is fully functional".. Now don't ask me for a link because I don't remember where I read that article..

I think i know what you are referring to, and that was referencing deleting the zeros, how they would wait till the govt is formed.....the CBI cannot issue a new currency alone from what I have read, but that does not stop them from raising the value of the dinar...as they have done already....

[cooked]

Shabibi himself made this comment, "There will be no RV not until the Government is fully functional".. Now don't ask me for a link because I don't remember where I read that article..

I don't think i ever hears him say there would be a rv. No disrespect but I don't think he would ever put his hand out that way.

[hitman1978]

Answer me this? Why in the world would the u.n. even think about releasing Iraq from chap 7 under malikis control. I have a hard time thinking they will allow this wannabe dictator to control a fully functional army with bombs, tanks, planes, etc. This guy is power hungry and already controls most of the government... there is no way in hell they will release Iraq from chap 7 unless maliki agrees to a power sharing agreement.

[doctor robbins]

Shabibi himself made this comment, "There will be no RV not until the Government is fully functional".. Now don't ask me for a link because I don't remember where I read that article..

Do you have a link for that? I've never heard Shabibi refer to any RV except when asked about it in DC last year. His only condition then had to do with inflation.

Edited April 10, 2012 by doctor robbins

[CaptainWingnut]

I appreciate it Capt but the longer they wait it is actually the reverse. The more they pull in the less currency liability there is, hence reducing the debt to the CBI,GOI, and the people of Iraq will have to pay off to the investors. Look at the numbers. Iraq is in no way under threat of hyperinflation currently. Well of course unless they keep running the presses using the 2010 replacement note plates. Show me a 2011 note please. This plan has been in place for years.

Genevieve,

Your statement leads me to believe that you may not truly understand hyperinflation or the foreign currency that we're working with

and all of the variables that come with this very complicated situation.

You're right when you say; "The more they pull in the less currency liability there is"

but it appears that you fail to understand that the only place they can "Pull In ... Currency" is from their own country.

Iraq has NO pull,,,

ZERO, NADA to get currency off of the street anywhere EXCEPT within the walls of their country.

If you've read the news articles here over just the past 6 months, you would see that they [iraq] have

certainly pulled in the bulk of dinar from within their walls.

Also, if you were lucky enough to have "Intel" from within Iraq [as we do]

you would also know that the people of Iraq HATE

their own currency right now.

They are using US Dollars because they don't trust their currency

(which I might add was a brilliant propaganda ploy by Saleh back in December).

Here's an article with links on it

By calculations they pulled 3+ Trillion dinar (perhaps even 4T) off the streets of Iraq in just 8 weeks

and the lingering distrust of Saleh's comments has the citizens of Iraq leary of their

own currency as it stands still today.

Here's some questions for you:

In that or any other pull, did YOU give back YOUR dinar?

For that matter:

Did ANYONE outside of Iraq exchange their IQD for USD?

NOPE!

And that's where you're statement goes slightly off track.

The people of Iraq flocked to the banks and exchanged IQD for USD in massive numbers just a few months

ago and they continue to use the USD today because the IQD is NOT going back onto the streets.

Why?

Because the banks are keeping them.

Hence the "Removal of the Three Zeros" campaign.

The three zero notes are off the streets of Iraq and they will NOT go back.

This action also keeps all of the Iraqi people distrustful of their currency's worth.

Now, Hyperinflation.

Dr. Shabibi has done an absolutely exceptional job of keeping hyperinflation at bay for 8+ years,

but the magical number for Iraq is about 10+ percent inflation.

Much past that and it will spin wildly,,, no EXPONENTIALLY out of control.

No US Troops, no US dollars coming in... inflation goes up.

No WTO, inflation goes up.

Still in Chapter VII, inflation continues.

Can't rebuild the cities and infrastructure, inflation goes up.

The only way they stave off inflation as it is, is by their currency auctions to the world.

And yes you kind of hit it here,,, they would rather NOT give too much more out to the world.

Why?

Because they can't get that IQD back without a L OP or RV.

THIS is why Dr. Shabibi begs to push the RV button RIGHT NOW.

Because thanks to his assistant Saleh, the streets of Iraq are LOW in dinar and the RV will only HELP the country not hurt it.

And the sooner they press the button, the lower they can come in at..

Here's some more info from another chat on that very subject:

Iraq is already RICH.

Their currency just doesn't reflect it.

Revaluing their currency simply moves their currency up to what their natural resources and reserves support.

As their natural resources (mainly pumping oil) get bigger and better, their value parallels and they can revalue again and again.

Because Iraq is already rich, think about this.

If they revalue at $1USD it would cost them "X" amount.

By the way, all dinar outside of Iraq will not go back to Iraq directly at cash in. It will most likely be held and used as PetroDollars by all of the countries that receive it through their central banking systems.

Once the cash-in fever calms and/or their expiration date for cash-in expires...

If they then revalue at $2USD, they just DOUBLED their money and have now PAID for "X"

That makes them flat EVEN on the books. NO DEBT

Now they can revalue at $3USD and MAKE "X" amount which is pure profit...

They are now singularly as rich as they made everyone else [including their OWN people] combined.

And it was (IS) supported by their vast Natural Resources that the world seeks.

Here's the good news for everyone.

Okay this is just ROUND numbers for education.

If they come in at 1:1, ($1USD).

They will totally pay it off when they move to 2:1 ($2USD) and be in the BLACK for anything past that.

However,

If they have to come in at 2:1 ($2USD) initially to stave off hyperinflation,

They won't be EVEN on the books until they reach 4:1 ($4USD),

and they'll have to jump to 6:1 $6USD to double THEIR money...

This is why Adam and his team are working so hard to show everyone the way to invest in Iraq.

This is

All good news for those investing in Iraq and Dr. Shabibi knows it as well....

That's why he want's to hit the switch NOW...

The problem is just like always,

POWER & POLITICS.

As soon as they can all agree to agree we will see an RV.

We all continue to cheer them on.

Go RV

[Sun Devil]

Captain Wingnut.......you continue to blow me away with your insights. I could read your posts all day.

[wealthhound]

Captain Wingnut.......you continue to blow me away with your insights. I could read your posts all day.

Ditto to that Sun Devil!

Captain, please stop by more often, your posts in my opinion are very clear, and able to understand...Thanks!

[pattyangel]

CaptinWingnut...now this is something that I can really absorb. Thanks for helping us out on the breakdown. Haven't heard a breakdown like this in awhile.

[webup]

You are correct...........NO GOVERNMENT, NO RV, NO HCL NO RV, CHAPTER 7 MUST BE REMOVED COMPLETELY IF NOT, NO RV...... What part of this do we not understand??? Folks we are far aways from seeing a RV, don't mean to sound negative, but open your eyes and look at the facts...

Sticky this to the top of the forum instead of that other tripe.

When you login to Dvets this post above pops up and you must click 'I understand' before you can enter the forum.

[CaptainWingnut]

Captain Wingnut.......you continue to blow me away with your insights. I could read your posts all day.

Thanks Sun Devil,

Can't believe that someone gave you a (-) for kind words!!

I have NEVER given a (-) to anyone...

I gave you a (+) to even you out...

Ditto to that Sun Devil!

Captain, please stop by more often, your posts in my opinion are very clear, and able to understand...Thanks!

Thanks Sun Devil,

I'm around as much as I can be.

CaptinWingnut...now this is something that I can really absorb. Thanks for helping us out on the breakdown. Haven't heard a breakdown like this in awhile.

Thanks PattyAngel,

I've been around for a few years and just luckily happen to fall into the right circles to get a great education.

Glad to be of assistance, if for nothing more than some of the little odds and ends, bits and things.

Go RV

[HopefulTxn]

Okay this is just ROUND numbers for education.

If they come in at 1:1, ($1USD).

They will totally pay it off when they move to 2:1 ($2USD) and be in the BLACK for anything past that.

Ok, basically assets are black items while liabilities are red items... For a central bank, red is the bad side of the equation...

If the CBI increased the value of their currency from 1:$1 to 1:$2 they have essentially increased their liability without increasing their assets to match...

How exactly are they going to do that?

[CaptainWingnut]

Ok, basically assets are black items while liabilities are red items... For a central bank, red is the bad side of the equation...

If the CBI increased the value of their currency from 1:$1 to 1:$2 they have essentially increased their liability without increasing their assets to match...

How exactly are they going to do that?

Yes you're right, assets and liabilities are just the opposite for a bank.

I know how the banking system works from the INSIDE.

I was VP of a very large bank here in the US.

I was the Chief Financial Analyst just under the CFO.

FOLKS... This is the EASY button.

What you're forgetting with your assets versus liabilities mind set is that they are ALREADY worth it...

They don't have to go get MORE assets to back up their liabilities because they already have them.

Their assets were worth $3+ (I believe it was $3.24 or $3.26) during Saddam's watch

and GUESS WHAT?

They are STILL worth that and more.

More because the price of oil in the world has gone UP, and about 15 more reasons.

Nothing changed in the value of their natural resources when the UN put them under sanctions

and Chapter VII restrictions

and the IMF put their currency on a managed float.

The managed float devalued their currency but did NOT change the value of their natural resources.

That's why it's called a "Managed Float" because it is a FALSE value.

THIS IS WHY IT IS SUCH A GREAT DEAL FOR ALL OF US

So,

They're already worth NORTH of $3 IQD to $1USD just because of their assets [natural resources]

and that means that they don't have to go GET any more assets to back up their liabilities....

They Already Have It.

RECAP

NOTHING has changed in their country's valuable natural resources since Saddam's era.

(by they way, the old dinar from Saddam's take over era,

was also know as Swiss Dinar because it was the most trusted currency next to Swiss Francs)

They haven't run out of oil, metals or minerals!!!

They're just under SANCTIONS.

So the CBI ultimately backs its liabilities up with the value of its natural resources

just like every other country including the U.S. does.

The BEST part for Iraq is that because they can come in at $1USD,

they totally pay themselves AND the entire initial RV off when they move to twice that or $2USD

AND when they get to $3USD (not even totally back to their value during Saddam's reign)

They have PAID for the entire RV

AND

MADE as much for themselves as they made for everyone else in the world including their own people.

All because that is ALREADY what their value IS.

AND they're still worth MORE...

Gotta love Bush and Cheney when they put in the FIX so that all of us could purchase and own DINAR...

Thanks for the question HopefulTxn

Go RV

[HisHands]

Thanks CaptainWingnut! I love your break down! Please keep sharing your knowledge with us! I can actually understand your analysis instead of wondering what on earth I just read!

[20MillionDinar]

Yes you're right, assets and liabilities are just the opposite for a bank.

I know how the banking system works from the INSIDE.

I was VP of a very large bank here in the US.

I was the Chief Financial Analyst just under the CFO.

FOLKS... This is the EASY button.

What you're forgetting with your assets versus liabilities mind set is that they are ALREADY worth it...

They don't have to go get MORE assets to back up their liabilities because they already have them.

Their assets were worth $3+ (I believe it was $3.24 or $3.26) during Saddam's watch

and GUESS WHAT?

They are STILL worth that and more.

More because the price of oil in the world has gone UP, and about 15 more reasons.

Nothing changed in the value of their natural resources when the UN put them under sanctions

and Chapter VII restrictions

and the IMF put their currency on a managed float.

The managed float devalued their currency but did NOT change the value of their natural resources.

That's why it's called a "Managed Float" because it is a FALSE value.

THIS IS WHY IT IS SUCH A GREAT DEAL FOR ALL OF US

So,

They're already worth NORTH of $3 IQD to $1USD just because of their assets [natural resources]

and that means that they don't have to go GET any more assets to back up their liabilities....

They Already Have It.

RECAP

NOTHING has changed in their country's valuable natural resources since Saddam's era.

(by they way, the old dinar from Saddam's take over era,

was also know as Swiss Dinar because it was the most trusted currency next to Swiss Francs)

They haven't run out of oil, metals or minerals!!!

Quick Question: I see you said that nothing has changed, just the fact that they are under sanctions. But I don't understand how the Dinar we hold should be valued at $3+...?

Saddam's era they had roughly 30 Billion worth of Dinars floating around

Today they have roughly 30 TRILLION.

This obviously makes each individual currency unit worth much much less! Unless of course you think they are down to roughly 30 Billion Dinars.

Do you think the entire country of Iraq is operating off of 30 Million Dollars worth of IQD as well as US Dollars? If this is the case then their currency could be worth over $20!

There is one problem even if there isn't even 1 single 50 IQD note out in circulation: Their M2 is 60 Trillion, making about 30 trillion of that digital currency. Even at 1:1 now their currency is worth more than every other countries' currency in the world combined. How is this possible?

Thank you in advance.

Edited April 13, 2012 by 20MillionDinar

[CaptainWingnut]

Thanks CaptainWingnut! I love your break down! Please keep sharing your knowledge with us! I can actually understand your analysis instead of wondering what on earth I just read!

You're welcome HisHands

Glad to be of assistance And thank you for the kindness.

On the road now typing on my iPhone.

Most of this is just a little study mixed with a cup of common sense

and a pinch of logic,

oh and a huge flow chart on the wall to keep track of all of the players in this

most complicated Chess game.

Go RV

[CaptainWingnut]

Quick Question: I see you said that nothing has changed, just the fact that they are under sanctions. But I don't understand how the Dinar we hold should be valued at $3+...?

Saddam's era they had roughly 30 Billion worth of Dinars floating around

Today they have roughly 30 TRILLION.

This obviously makes each individual currency unit worth much much less! Unless of course you think they are down to roughly 30 Billion Dinars.

Do you think the entire country of Iraq is operating off of 30 Million Dollars worth of IQD as well as US Dollars? If this is the case then their currency could be worth over $20!

There is one problem even if there isn't even 1 single 50 IQD note out in circulation: Their M2 is 60 Trillion, making about 30 trillion of that digital currency. Even at 1:1 now their currency is worth more than every other countries' currency in the world combined. How is this possible?

Thank you in advance.

Trying this from my iPhone.

You're right, they have a lot more out in the world that will EVENTUALLY

come back to them, but it still revolves around their natural resources.

They're sitting on (I believe it's the) 3rd largest oil reserve in that part

of the world.

Trillions of barrels (sorry I don't have the exact number with me) under their feet.

And since 1993 they've been pumping massive money into their DFI

accounts (I believe 15). How much is in those accounts is not known publically

but we calculate that it has to be substantial enough to pay

for the entire RV alone.

Now don't get me wrong.

Dr. Shabibi does NOT want to RV for any higher

than he absoulately has to.

He knows the math and knows that .10 is better than $1

and if he could do .10 initially, the at .20 they're paid off.

Problem is that they're spending like drunken sailors

(no offence to our sailors, it's those other guys )

and inflation is eating their lunch, so They're getting

backed into the corner.

They can cover it.

They want to keep it as much as everyone else wants it,

but they can cover it.

The best part for Iraq is that they won't have to cover it for anyone

OUTSIDE of Iraq.

You see

When you cash in your dinar at a bank in the U.S.,

it will be covered in the end by every country's central bank.

In our case by OUR Fed Reserve.

Like this:

The bank will pay you (less the exchange fee's of course),

then the bank will sell it to the Fed

who will keep it and buy (you've got it) OIL from Iraq.

No money out of Iraqs pocket, just future OIL.

So really, they don't have to back anything OUTSIDE of

Iraq, for hard cash. Just future oil and we all know they've

got a pot load of that!

Great question 20MillionDinar

Boy, I don't know how kids do this. This is HARD

typing on this little tiny screen, while bouncing along.

Go RV

[CaptainWingnut]

Well this is just great!

Anyone know how you UN neg a post?

I NEVER give negs (-)

NEVER

I respect everyone's opinion.

but working on this tiny

iPhone screen I ....

With my SUPERSIZED thumbs...

I...

Get ready to laugh...

I ........ NEG'd

MYSELF

I feel like Homer Simpson..... D'oh!

Thanks everyone for pushing it positive.

Go RV

[wealthhound]

Well this is just great!

Anyone know how you UN neg a post?

I NEVER give negs (-)

NEVER

I respect everyone's opinion.

but working on this tiny

iPhone screen I ....

With my SUPERSIZED thumbs...

I...

Get ready to laugh...

I ........ NEG'd

MYSELF

I feel like Homer Simpson..... D'oh!

Thanks everyone for pushing it positive.

Go RV

Ya better watch those thumbs Capt....they can sure get you in a heap of trouble!!! Looks to me like the plusses you received took care of your large thumb issue!!! Thanks for your thoughts today, keep em coming!!! Wealthhound

[CaptainWingnut]

Ya better watch those thumbs Capt....they can sure get you in a heap of trouble!!! Looks to me like the plusses you received took care of your large thumb issue!!! Thanks for your thoughts today, keep em coming!!! Wealthhound

Thanks WealthHound

I'm laughing at myself.

I just don't get how ppl work these tiny screens.

I like my iPhone though.

Capt.

[zul]

Trying this from my iPhone.

You're right, they have a lot more out in the world that will EVENTUALLY

come back to them, but it still revolves around their natural resources.

They're sitting on (I believe it's the) 3rd largest oil reserve in that part

of the world.

Trillions of barrels (sorry I don't have the exact number with me) under their feet.

And since 1993 they've been pumping massive money into their DFI

accounts (I believe 15). How much is in those accounts is not known publically

but we calculate that it has to be substantial enough to pay

for the entire RV alone.

Now don't get me wrong.

Dr. Shabibi does NOT want to RV for any higher

than he absoulately has to.

He knows the math and knows that .10 is better than $1

and if he could do .10 initially, the at .20 they're paid off.

Problem is that they're spending like drunken sailors

(no offence to our sailors, it's those other guys )

and inflation is eating their lunch, so They're getting

backed into the corner.

They can cover it.

They want to keep it as much as everyone else wants it,

but they can cover it.

The best part for Iraq is that they won't have to cover it for anyone

OUTSIDE of Iraq.

You see

When you cash in your dinar at a bank in the U.S.,

it will be covered in the end by every country's central bank.

In our case by OUR Fed Reserve.

Like this:

The bank will pay you (less the exchange fee's of course),

then the bank will sell it to the Fed

who will keep it and buy (you've got it) OIL from Iraq.

No money out of Iraqs pocket, just future OIL.

So really, they don't have to back anything OUTSIDE of

Iraq, for hard cash. Just future oil and we all know they've

got a pot load of that!

Great question 20MillionDinar

Boy, I don't know how kids do this. This is HARD

typing on this little tiny screen, while bouncing along.

Go RV

Captain....

Btw i read in one of the news article yesterday, they were quoting 816Billion USD as estimates for DFI...

Edited April 14, 2012 by zul

[HopefulTxn]

Nothing changed in the value of their natural resources when the UN put them under sanctions

and Chapter VII restrictions

and the IMF put their currency on a managed float.

Do you have anything to show that Iraq ever based the value of their currency on the value of their oil???

The reason that I ask is that Saddam is stated to have spent the $60 billion or so dollars they had backing their currency in the 1980's with his war with Iran...

If they had $60 billion dollars backing a currency with only 15-20 billion dinar in circulation it would legalistically explain why their currency was valued so high at one point in time...

But since he replaced that asset with debt (liabilities from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) how could the current $60 billion in reserves meant to carry the same value as they had then when there was 1,000 times less currency to support with it???

[CaptainWingnut]

Do you have anything to show that Iraq ever based the value of their currency on the value of their oil???

The reason that I ask is that Saddam is stated to have spent the $60 billion or so dollars they had backing their currency in the 1980's with his war with Iran...

If they had $60 billion dollars backing a currency with only 15-20 billion dinar in circulation it would legalistically explain why their currency was valued so high at one point in time...

But since he replaced that asset with debt (liabilities from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) how could the current $60 billion in reserves meant to carry the same value as they had then when there was 1,000 times less currency to support with it???

According to the CIA World Fact book Iraq's GDP before the war was made up of:

petroleum, chemicals, textiles, leather, construction materials, food processing, fertilizer, metal fabrication/processing

With petroleum being at least 84% of the whole.

I could imagine that with a devistated infrastructure from so much

war and terrorism, petroleum is now even a higher percentage.

I'm not an economist,

I'm a psychologist but info on Iraq isn't hard to find

Or figure out and yes due to the translations

you have to Read-Between-the-Lines at times.

At this stage of the process it really doesn't matter what

Saddam or any other Iraqi valued their currency at or

On what they fixed that value to.

What matters is that the public intelligence tells us

that all of the dinar outside of Iraq will NOT go directly

back to Iraq but will be used by all countries central banks

as petro dollars for Iraqi FUTURE OIL.

Therefore logic alone tells us that Iraq doesn't have to

Value their dinar on anything but oil.

Hope I was clear. I'm again typing on this little

iPhone screen while I travel.

Go RV

[HopefulTxn]

Sorry Cpt, but unless you can show where Iraq has either ever valued their currency in the manner in which you speak, or show where they have ever stated their intent is to do so - then making claims that they will leverage the value of their oil to support the current value of their currency is just you blowing smoke out of your bum like every other guru...

Don't get me wrong... I hope and pray that they do it in that manner...

But you have put absolutely nothing forward to show where they have in the past, nor where they state that they will in the future, value their currency in such a manner...