Something to chew on...

[coldwarvet]

Folks, let's get real here. It is spot on to state that we are only being told what they want us to hear. After the worldwide debacle of 2008, does anyone truly believe anymore that the playing field is level, that the financial system is transparent, or (most important) that they can't change all the rules at the drop of a hat? Of course they can!

The powers-that-be do whatever the heck they please, and then put up window dressing to make it look legit. The endless talk about balance sheets, math that doesn't add up, financial reserves versus oil in the ground, etc. is pretty pointless IMO. I'm in this investment because I see not only what we're being told, but because I'm inferring what we're NOT being told. And it's the latter that will make the biggest difference in the long run. GO RV!

[Snotrocket]

...I'm in this investment because I see not only what we're being told, but because I'm inferring what we're NOT being told. And it's the latter that will make the biggest difference in the long run. GO RV!

Exactly - and that's what makes this a high-risk, speculative investment. None of us would be here if we weren't able to think outside the box ( Well, except the lopsters...why are they here?).

[caz1104]

The two most unreliable sources of information here in the good ol USA is the media & the Government. So is it to far fetched to believe that Iraq is not telling the truth?..............................nahhhhhhhhhh they would'nt lie, would they?. Best to all

[WorkerBee]

( Well, except the lopsters...why are they here?).

Yin and Yang, can't have one without the other. Besides, think of the entertainment value the RVers provide when they read a LOPSTER's opinion!

[azgoldengirl]

I too believe the US does not enter into war without first concidering how they might benefit from it in the long term.

It would be foolish to do otherwise.

The world's countries are full of corrupt and brutal Dictators. Why waste lives & money to overthrow them without the potential

for gain of some sort in the end. The US Gov knew that Al Queada was not in Iraq ( Saddam hated them), and the Gov also knew

that the weapons of mass destruction were minimal at best.

The war was about OIL, PROFIT & CONTROL......

PERIOD.

The people of Iraq are only secondary beneficiaries of the regime change. ( At least I hope they will be some day.).

IMHO

The best things in life RV

yak

War....did someone say War? Hmmm....seems Bush forgot one important legal step necessary to having a Declared War. The actual Declaration of War through Congress. Barakass Obominator is not the only one who jumps through hoops to get what he wants. Yes....Middle Eastern Conflict is ALL about oil. Well....except that stuff called lithium. In any case, it all equals out in $$.

[cooked]

I too believe the US does not enter into war without first concidering how they might benefit from it in the long term.

It would be foolish to do otherwise.

The world's countries are full of corrupt and brutal Dictators. Why waste lives & money to overthrow them without the potential

for gain of some sort in the end. The US Gov knew that Al Queada was not in Iraq ( Saddam hated them), and the Gov also knew

that the weapons of mass destruction were minimal at best.

The war was about OIL, PROFIT & CONTROL......

PERIOD.

The people of Iraq are only secondary beneficiaries of the regime change. ( At least I hope they will be some day.).

IMHO

The best things in life RV

yak

As much as I want to agree with you, the US has entered many conflicts with no apparent benefit for us. I hope the theory is correct but I have doubts in our great leaders thinking.

[truthful1]

Debt forgiveness is common in developing countries. withoutthe reliefthey wouldnt be able to grow. germany was given debt forgiveness after the war, so its common for countries coming from decades of war. the reason for debt forgiveness is to allow iraqs economy to grow in different sectors where relationships will be built and will normally include the forgiving country. all countries have a vast interest in iraqs resources of oil, natural gas, gold, and so on. the possible gains will behigher than having iraqpaythe original debt.

when talking about an exchange rate the ultimate factors are imports vs exports, balanceof payments, gdp, and inflation. for any country including iraq to rv beyond the capabilities of those parameters will lead to a collapse of the economy. There is more importance of the economy being able to effectively operate, than satisifying speculators.

You cant leave economics out of this situation. if countries could rv to create wealth, every country in the world would constantly be rving their currency. and the fact iraq has denominations as high as 25,000, is hyperinflation

a country, even iraq, cant rv their way out of hyperinflation......

before saying they can.....i ask all of you to do some research....

Edited April 3, 2012 by truthful1

[Snotrocket]

Debt forgiveness is common in developing countries. withoutthe reliefthey wouldnt be able to grow. germany was given debt forgiveness after the war, so its common for countries coming from decades of war. the reason for debt forgiveness is to allow iraqs economy to grow in different sectors where relationships will be built and will normally include the forgiving country. all countries have a vast interest in iraqs resources of oil, natural gas, gold, and so on. the possible gains will behigher than having iraqpaythe original debt.

when talking about an exchange rate the ultimate factors are imports vs exports, balanceof payments, gdp, and inflation. for any country including iraq to rv beyond the capabilities of those parameters will lead to a collapse of the economy. There is more importance of the economy being able to effectively operate, than satisifying speculators.

You cant leave economics out of this situation. if countries could rv to create wealth, every country in the world would constantly be rving their currency. and the fact iraq has denominations as high as 25,000, is hyperinflation

a country, even iraq, cant rv their way out of hyperinflation......

before saying they can.....i ask all of you to do some research....

Are you familiar with the term "Artificial Program Rate"? Iraq does not suffer from hyperinflation. I never said that satisfying speculators was more important than rebuilding their economy. I would respectfully argue that it is possible to do both for all the reasons stated above. Not sure what "research" you would have me do as I've read pretty much everything written about Iraq for the last 3 years. This is an opinion piece. It's my opinion. I would ask you to exceed the parameters of your own conventional thought and think bigger - consider the possibility that we don't have all the information...and use your knowledge and imagination to fill in the gaps. Go RV!

[dvforumuser]

I too believe the US does not enter into war without first concidering how they might benefit from it in the long term.

It would be foolish to do otherwise.

The world's countries are full of corrupt and brutal Dictators. Why waste lives & money to overthrow them without the potential

for gain of some sort in the end. The US Gov knew that Al Queada was not in Iraq ( Saddam hated them), and the Gov also knew

that the weapons of mass destruction were minimal at best.

The war was about OIL, PROFIT & CONTROL......

PERIOD.

The people of Iraq are only secondary beneficiaries of the regime change. ( At least I hope they will be some day.).

So when Rumsfeld said that the war would only last a few months and could not possibly cost more then $50B you think he really was thinking we would be there for ten years at a cost of over $2T? When hearing people talk about the conversations Bush and his advisors were having after 9/11 you think that was all for show? That Powell went to the UN knowing what he was going to say was all bogus and in the end it would end his career?

If you look at conflict in the world (for the US or globally) do you really see careful planning and orchestration for the profit and control? I see greed and corruption for sure, but even more so I see fanaticism, chaos and the fog of war with a large portion of ineptness mixed in.

Do officials look at long term costs when considering entering a conflict? Sure. Are we remotely good at actually predicting what will happen and what the effects and costs will be? No way, we're in fact terrible at it.

[keepmwlknfny]

Are you familiar with the term "Artificial Program Rate"? Iraq does not suffer from hyperinflation. I never said that satisfying speculators was more important than rebuilding their economy. I would respectfully argue that it is possible to do both for all the reasons stated above. Not sure what "research" you would have me do as I've read pretty much everything written about Iraq for the last 3 years. This is an opinion piece. It's my opinion. I would ask you to exceed the parameters of your own conventional thought and think bigger - consider the possibility that we don't have all the information...and use your knowledge and imagination to fill in the gaps. Go RV!

Im pretty sure that truthful was referring to the dinar itself being hyperinflated and its in its current condition because of the periods of hyperinflation that they suffered the past 2 decades.....

The money supply is one of the biggest issues that the CBI needs to deal with.....thats why we arent seeing much movement with the dinar....there isnt much room for it....

[Snotrocket]

...You cant leave economics out of this situation. if countries could rv to create wealth, every country in the world would constantly be rving their currency. and the fact iraq has denominations as high as 25,000, is hyperinflation

a country, even iraq, cant rv their way out of hyperinflation......

Keep, you may be right - that may be what truthful meant - but that's not how it reads. As far as the reason there isn't movement on the dinar...we'll just have to agree to disagree on that! I know better then to go 9 rounds with a committed lopster - no offense!

[keepmwlknfny]

Keep, you may be right - that may be what truthful meant - but that's not how it reads. As far as the reason there isn't movement on the dinar...we'll just have to agree to disagree on that! I know better then to go 9 rounds with a committed lopster - no offense!

LOL....I'm not even a committed lopster! I'm on the fence....I can see this going in two directions but I don't know which one they will take yet....

Do they have to lop? No.....they have options availible....the biggest question is simply will they persue them instead of taking the easy way out like the CBI is "planning" to do.....

[George Hayduke]

Folks, let's get real here. It is spot on to state that we are only being told what they want us to hear. After the worldwide debacle of 2008, does anyone truly believe anymore that the playing field is level, that the financial system is transparent, or (most important) that they can't change all the rules at the drop of a hat? Of course they can!

The powers-that-be do whatever the heck they please, and then put up window dressing to make it look legit. The endless talk about balance sheets, math that doesn't add up, financial reserves versus oil in the ground, etc. is pretty pointless IMO. I'm in this investment because I see not only what we're being told, but because I'm inferring what we're NOT being told. And it's the latter that will make the biggest difference in the long run. GO RV!

We will know more by the end of May or begining of June...

#1. "In this regard, we understand that the completion of the third review under the SBA—expected to take place on or after May 31, 2011—will require observance of the quantitative performance criteria for end-December 2010 specified in Table 1". Check.

#2. "that completion of the fourth review—expected to take place on or after October 30, 2011—will require observance of the quantitative performance criteria for end-June 2011."

Check.

#3. "that the completion of the fifth review—expected to take place on or after May 31, 2012—will require observance of the quantitative performance criteria for end-December 2011. Not competed - still waiting...

Country Report No. 11/75

BTW Workerbee, congrats on your 1000 posts!

GH

[HopefulTxn]

LOL....I'm not even a committed lopster! I'm on the fence....I can see this going in two directions but I don't know which one they will take yet....

Do they have to lop? No.....they have options availible....the biggest question is simply will they persue them instead of taking the easy way out like the CBI is "planning" to do.....

That's funny... People act like anyone is hoping for an RD to the IQD and calling anyone that points out history or how the situation that Iraq is in has been handled by numerous other countries is a 'lopster'...

Like you said, could there be other options... Of course... But it just seems that without Iraq having either reduced their money supply, or being able to be the country that changes the world economics model, they will rely on the same course of action that every other country facing similar circumstances has taken before them... It's not what any of us as speculators of their currency want, but it is a very distinct possibility...

[HopefulTxn]

Sorry Keep, that should have read 'anyone expecting' instead of 'anyone hoping'...

[keepmwlknfny]

That's funny... People act like anyone is hoping for an RD to the IQD and calling anyone that points out history or how the situation that Iraq is in has been handled by numerous other countries is a 'lopster'...

Like you said, could there be other options... Of course... But it just seems that without Iraq having either reduced their money supply, or being able to be the country that changes the world economics model, they will rely on the same course of action that every other country facing similar circumstances has taken before them... It's not what any of us as speculators of their currency want, but it is a very distinct possibility...

LOL no kidding!! The term lopster is thrown around so easily almost as if its a jab or insult but it seems that SOME lopsters are actually more informed then the ones coming after them for being one....

[Snotrocket]

LOL....I'm not even a committed lopster! I'm on the fence....I can see this going in two directions but I don't know which one they will take yet....

Do they have to lop? No.....they have options availible....the biggest question is simply will they persue them instead of taking the easy way out like the CBI is "planning" to do.....

I sincerely apologize. No disrespect meant. I'm happy to know that you're still open minded. So, I assume you've read the thread - I'd really like your opinion - does any of it make sense to you or do you think I'm full of **** too! (I promise - you won't hurt my feelings!)

[truthful1]

Are you familiar with the term "Artificial Program Rate"? Iraq does not suffer from hyperinflation. I never said that satisfying speculators was more important than rebuilding their economy. I would respectfully argue that it is possible to do both for all the reasons stated above. Not sure what "research" you would have me do as I've read pretty much everything written about Iraq for the last 3 years. This is an opinion piece. It's my opinion. I would ask you to exceed the parameters of your own conventional thought and think bigger - consider the possibility that we don't have all the information...and use your knowledge and imagination to fill in the gaps. Go RV!

I respect your opinion, i gave mine...........................

simply, the 000 notes are the effects of hyperinflation.........a rd is necessary...............the question is how does the rd unfold....straight rv or deletion of zeroes????

[Texas1]

wow Randalln, I now have a picture in my mind of what you may look like. Yep, Uncle Ray. He rolled his own cigarettes and drank Lone Star beer for breakfast (overeasy).

Uncle Ray drank lone star on top of Easy? Were they eating lopster?

[MovieMaker]

thank you

[keepmwlknfny]

I sincerely apologize. No disrespect meant. I'm happy to know that you're still open minded. So, I assume you've read the thread - I'd really like your opinion - does any of it make sense to you or do you think I'm full of **** too! (I promise - you won't hurt my feelings!)

To be honest I think that the reasoning you layed out would only hurt them....especially with all these other countries that are/have defaulted on their debt and are going belly up. Why would a newly developed country work to put themselves back into debt on purpose?? And on this kind of scale, at a RV of 1 to 1 with the amount of currency they have in circulation your at least talking a few trillion dollars paying out to speculators. You know how long it would take them to pay that off?? If Iraq is pulling in lets say 100 billion dollars a year (dont know the exact number) it would take them 30 years to pay us off and that would be putting every dime away and leaving nothing for Iraq to survive off of at all......Why would any country do that??

If you think about it, Iraqs debt to Kuwait for instance comes from oil revenues. Those revenues account for probly 90% of the money coming into the country.....If Iraq were to RV to purposely go into debt for paying out all the speculators, they wouldnt be able to survive.....

[robinjp]

Sorry if this is a repeat! I think they will RV ahead of schedule bc there is no other way to get dollars off the market. With the crisis in Syria and Iran, everyone wants dollars and Iraq is a source. People are not going to use the dinars until they have some value. Just a thought! I feel really good about this investment. Plus I have learned more about economics than ever before!!!

[keepmwlknfny]

Sorry if this is a repeat! I think they will RV ahead of schedule bc there is no other way to get dollars off the market. With the crisis in Syria and Iran, everyone wants dollars and Iraq is a source. People are not going to use the dinars until they have some value. Just a thought! I feel really good about this investment. Plus I have learned more about economics than ever before!!!

With the US pulling out and the recent problems with Syria and Iran, they are reporting a lack of USD circulating in the markets now.....seems that the de-dollarization problem is fixing itself!!

[TimS]

OK - so let's imagine that everything we read in the news is true and your theory is correct and their remaining debt IS 70 - 80% of GDP. I can't, of course, prove that their are frozen assets (although, anyone whose been in this investment a while has heard rumors and speculation of such) so let's throw that out too.

Just based on the POTENTIAL wealth, future earnings and coming economic boom once sanctions are lifted and international trade is opened up - I believe the system has been set up to bring value to their money (value an RD doesn't provide) and trillions in debt to their bottom line. It's just a theory but that's my story and I'm stickin' to it! Thanks for playing...you made my thinky-thing hurt a little...and I liked it!

You're dreaming.....wake up. There are trillions of dinar incirculation.....I don't care how much hidden assets want to 'imagine' they have...it can't cover trillions of dollars worth of RV'd currency

[Snotrocket]

@ keep and @TimS

I believe it was Scooter (please correct me if I'm wrong) that, a year or two ago, laid out a brilliant explanation of what will actually happen to most of the dinar in circulation. I wish I still had it to review or post but the jist was that when we cash in at the banks, that dinar will be absorbed into our US reserves to strengthen our own currency (with something of value) and to be used later to buy oil. If you believe there could be a brief "sucker" rate around .10 to start then a 1 to1 followed by a float to $3+ down the road - this makes even more sense (US govt buys low, holds, sells high). Most of the dinar held in the US by investors will not make it back to Iraq for a long time - years perhaps - plenty of time for them to build their own reserves and create the wealth I believe they're destined to have. The Iraqi assets, reserves and resources are enough to get them back in the game. As they incur debt along the way, Iraq will deal with it much as the rest of the world does - poorly I'm sure! It is the nature of government to live beyond it's means. It will be gradual and minimally destructive - no one wants Iraq to fail. The point of the original thread is the role debt will play in their ability to RV. Hope that helps to at least explain where I'm coming from. Go RV!