Adam's Official Chat 3/28/12

[kcw]

[Adam Montana] Good morning everyone!

[Adam Montana] ok let's do this chat

[Adam Montana] I'll start with a brief summary

[Adam Montana] I came in on Saturday and let you know I was waiting on a confirmation

[Adam Montana] i never received it, unfortunately, but I'm at the SAME place I was 4 days ago - I STILL don't have anything negative to share, and that's a GREAT feeling!

[Adam Montana] To let you know what I was waiting for - it's the HCL

[Adam Montana] over the last few days a couple of articles have came out that should give us some insight as to WHY they haven't POPPED this thing yet

[Adam Montana] one of which was just shared with me by our awesome mod kcw - the tarrifs

[Adam Montana] When Iraq has nothing of value other than their oil, gold, and natural resources

[Adam Montana] and their country has no WEALTH to speak of... which means they won't be buying much of anything from outside the country... why would they care about tarrifs?

[Adam Montana] well, here's one interpretation: If the country had a sudden increase in wealth, the imports would SKYROCKET, and if the government was smart they would impose import taxes as quickly as possible

[Adam Montana] now, we're seeing a ton of articles out there that support a straight RD... but we're also seeing a decent amount of articles supporting a RAISE IN THE VALUE OF THE IRAQI DINAR. It makes sense to raise the value and THEN RD, and in fact they MUST RD after they raise the value

[Adam Montana] they simply don't have the necessary currency denominations in circulation to raise the value without a redenomination at the same time

[Adam Montana] so if I can give you anything solid to take from this chat, it's this. 1. Don't be afraid of a redenomination, because it MUST happen to make a reValuation successful. 2. When a country suddenly focuses on IMPORT TAXES, they are planning on the citizens spending some money. In order for that to happen, the citizens must actually HAVE some money! Pretty obvious, right? And 3. Watch for the HCL. Until the HCL is complete, this ordeal is NOT over and cannot be completed.

[Adam Montana] ok, now for the weekly Q&A. kcw, whenever you are ready!

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[kcw] DiveDeepSix I'll take your question #1, Are we there yet? Just waiting for the Big Dog to give us the scoop!

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[Adam Montana] not yet! But like I just said, I think it's obvious that they are getting ducks in order

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] cgbrown 1. Besides the obvious "Are we there yet? 2. I want to know are we still looking at a low RV...... or has the possibility of it coming out above the 1:1 ratio improved any.

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[Adam Montana] in my honest opinion, cgbrown - I think the most likely scenario is a low RV with a complete cap on growth until most of the large notes and the majority of the dinar is pulled in. Once that is done, they can grow the value at a controlled rate

[Adam Montana] remember, the CBI and really all of Iraq doesn't want to spend any more than they have to, but they also want to recoup as much of their losses as possible. When Saddam was taken out, they suffered major losses. A decent RV can get some of those losses back, but it will cost them to do so. It's a "pay to play" situation, if you get my drift. Even though it will cost them money to pay the investors, they still make much more in the long run. The key for them is to mitigate those costs.

[Adam Montana] good question

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] Tricia01 In some places I read that Chapter 7 must happen before they can RV so that they have the protection they need in case they are attacked post RV. It has also been said that there will be a meeting by the UNSC in June that will likely lead to the release of Chapter 7. Thus, is it not safe to say that we cannot expect an RV until after June? i find it hard to trust in any rumours saying "it has been done."

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[Adam Montana] I belive Chapter 7 is a huge key in this, for exactly the reason you stated. However, I don't believe that "June" is set in stone, I think it can happen any time.

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] Patriotic_mess Adam, I hope this question doesn't matter by Wednesday but which do you think will happen first? The CBI website being updated with revalued rates or the VIP text message? Thanks

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[Adam Montana] VIP text message - I'd bet a million dollars on it.

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] myrtle307 There's talk out there the the hard RV has been thrown out the window. Some are talking a slow RV with bumps until it hits the 1:1. This is an interpretation of articles released recently regarding the tarrifs. Do you believe this scenario is valid?

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[Adam Montana] I don't think a "slow RV" is possible, but IF that happens it would actually be a good thing because it would eliminate the possibility of a "cash in window". If the current value simply grows slowly (but effectively) to a decent rate, they will be forced to honor all denominations and at the SAME TIME they would be forced to release the lower denominations.

[Adam Montana] I think it's more likely that they do a small "hard RV" then slowly grow.

[Adam Montana] but either way, it's good for us. One way just takes longer

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] Rogue Knight Adam you deserve a vacation- soon? I'm thinking ST. Thomas. or maybe FIJI?

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[Adam Montana] I'm actually planning a trip to St Thomas soon, as part of one of my other "roles" as a business owner. MAN it's nice to be able to write stuff like that off! :

[Adam Montana]

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] TimS Adam....I read somewhere that one of the benck marks Iraq must meet to gain complete release from Chapter 7 by the UN is passing the HCL.....Is this true? Have you seen or heard this to be true?

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[Adam Montana] Nope, not true. Either one can happen first, and I expect either one to trigger the other, but it is NOT mandatory for one to happen before the other.

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] jon29 Adam, good morning, you stopped in the chat for a "drive-by" this past Saturday and seemed very upbeat that good things were happening. Is there any news and details you can share that you have heard from your contacts? Thanks!

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[Adam Montana] I answered that in the beginning of the chat. next please!

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[kcw] Docneose I have a question with several parts: Adam you said you had 3 emails ready to send. All 3 had different rates ranging from $0.03 to a little over a dollar. Please state the three rates and rank them most likely to least likely in your opinion

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[Adam Montana] .03, .10. and $1. I believe .10 is most likely, $1 is second, .01 is least likely. (.03 is a rough estimate I received from a few analysts I work with. I'm not going into further details because it would literally take weeks to do so )

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] sab4212 First off i'd like to thank you for all you do and the D.V.website.IYHO who has the final say so in the RV process.Who actually say's do it,pushes the button,etc.?Thank you,Scott

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[Adam Montana] In my opinion, it's the CBI. They can stall the GOI, they can mess with the IMF, and they can change the rate any time they want. They won't do it if it's the wrong time, they can't be forced, and they can't be stopped if that's what they want to do

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] ametad Adam, What changes in the currency denomination do you expect after an RV? Will the new demoinations all be in paper or will there be coins as well? Will it be a 1000 fil per 1 dinar system like the Kuwait curency? It would hopefully be a system that would allow a single currency change allowing the IQD to RV relatively low say 1 IQD : (.10 - 1) USD and eventually rise even with their neighbors up to 1 IQD : 1 KWD over a longer period of time. Is this system alreday in place? Thanks, Pete

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[Adam Montana] I expect that there will be coins and lower denoms very similar to the US currency - 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100.

[Adam Montana] for that reason it makes sense to RV on par with the USD so they can use USD to make change while the lower IQD notes are coming out.

[Adam Montana] it would also make sense to come out at 10 cents, that way every 10 IQD is simply worth 1 USD. Belize does something similar - every BZD is worth exactly HALF of a USD, so it makes transactions easy for even the slowest person

[Adam Montana] that's my on it

[Adam Montana] next please!

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[kcw] upnorth Good morning Adam, you have stated that when this RV's that the CBI probably will not have their website updated right away. When the bank managers around the world see this large change in the IQD and they want to verify that it isn't a mistake, wouldn't they check the CBI site to verify? I know you are not a bank manager but do you have any insight on how they would verify this? Thanks for all you do.

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[Adam Montana] Good question. Keep in mind that banks don't go to oanda before they do a currency exchange - they check their INTERNAL system. The public face of the CBI doesn't mean anything - it's just the storefront. You have to go inside to see all the prices

[Adam Montana] so, the final answer is NO - it doesn't matter what the CBI site says. When the rate changes, it changes, and I doubt they will be overly worried about their silly little website in the grand scheme of it all

[Adam Montana] ok, thanks everyone! It's good to be home and I enjoyed the questions. If there's any major news, the VIP members will get a text and a barrage of emails, and the site will be updated. Until that happens, stay sane and don't let guru-fever get you

[bladowzanow]

Thank you kcw!

[fox]

Awesome chat! Thanks

[behaviorkat]

Thanks Adam, mods, and all the wonderful members on DV!

Nice chat, and questions!

GO RV..

[blugrass60]

Thanks Adam and kcw! Interesting..

[LS1Hawk]

Thanks Adam for your time once again, and thank you KCW as well.

[go4profit]

Thank you Adam and KCW....very good stuff!

[Caye98]

Thanks KCW for such a fast post, and to AM for his time, insights and answers!

[Rabbilove]

There is a lot of good information to share.

[wealthhound]

Great, positive info.! thanks Adam and KCW!

How exciting!!!

[DinarThug]

[Adam Montana] well, here's one interpretation: If the country had a sudden increase in wealth,

Thx Adam For The Tariff Explanation ! We're All Looking Forward To A Sudden Increase In Wealth !

B)

Thx For The Post Kcw !

[Sk 1962]

KCW thanks for posting, and Adam thank you for keeping it real You sir are the only real guru out there in dinar land.

[okane]

Does "guru-fever" come with a low grade fever and a rash? Just checking

[zigmeister]

I expect that there will be coins and lower denoms very similar to the US currency - 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100.

I hope this is true. The reason I do, there is a missing lower denom. Yes the 25. I would think, I don't know but they would retire it as a whole, as 25k dinar. What do you all think?

[dog53]

MONTANA Good JUJU

GO RV !!!!!!!!!

[scottch]

Okay, if there is a low RV like .10 and they RD and then incease the value would we have to cash in at .10 or could we wait for the value to go up? Sould we cash in and then invest in the smaller denoms? Anyone?

[Billb]

Thanks KCW and Adam for the updates

[only 1-25k dinar]

Okay, if there is a low RV like .10 and they RD and then incease the value would we have to cash in at .10 or could we wait for the value to go up? Sould we cash in and then invest in the smaller denoms? Anyone?

I would like to know if we have to cash in if it's .10 too????

Or could we wait till it goes up with the lower denom's?

Edited March 28, 2012 by only 1-25k dinar

[KiaKaha]

Thanks Adam & kcw

KK

[CaptainWingnut]

Thanks for the Great explanation Adam.

Go RV

[Northern Lights]

So - with the Tariff laws yesterday indicating that they go into affect on 06/01/2012 - does that mean the the RV won't happen before then? Or now that they have something in place, they will pass the HCL and that will trigger the RV?

[wealthhound]

Thanks for the Great explanation Adam. Go RV

Good to see you here Captain!

[bschmitzquc]

Now we are down to thinking the RV will be most likely .10 to $1 USD WOW.....big difference all the sudden. Then it will titrate up......sure it will. With all the constant unrest going on there. I am not sure I want to ride that train. It could be a bumpier ride and less of a sure thing that the RV itself. Funny how the intel keeps changing even over the last few months here. I was sure hoping for at least 1:1 and it makes sense. If you truly want to make the Dinar the national currency and you want to get USD off the streets make it at least a 1:1 or even better 1.17 to 1 USD and watch the USD fly off the streets. I just can't see how they can RV at .10 it just doesn't make sense to me, but then again not a lot of what is happening has made sense to me. The reality is nobody, not Adam not anybody knows what is going to to happen with this thing until it actually happens. It gets tiresome watching all the waffling, predictions, excitement followed by utter depression. What a ride.........and on it goes.

[TimS]

Okay, if there is a low RV like .10 and they RD and then incease the value would we have to cash in at .10 or could we wait for the value to go up? Sould we cash in and then invest in the smaller denoms? Anyone?

If there is a hard 10 cent RV....you will probably have a certain time frame to trade in the large notes and during the time frame, the CBI wopuld hold the value at 10 cents. As Adam says, the CBI wants to mitigate their losses to investors otherwise most would hold onto their dinar until it did do up. As for investing in smaller denoms...it depends on what the CBI decides to do. It is more than likely that the dinar will not be traded on the Forex during the cash in time frame. It could be possible that you may be able to get lower denoms from dealers as we get the larger ones today....but you will pay a premium (spread) to get them. You would have to run the math to see if you thought you could make a profit taking that route? It all depends on what the CBI allows and doesn't allow during the cash in window? I'm sure Adam will make recommendations on this very thing if it RV's at 10 cents.....JMHO

[RodandStaff]

Thanks for stopping by Adam and bringing us your perspective... we appreciate it! And thanks kcw for posting, where would we be w/o ya'll??? Again.. thanks so much!

Just one thing left to say.... git-r-dun boyz, just git-r-dun!!!

Come On RV Baby!!!

We're All Looking Forward To A Sudden Increase In Wealth !

B)

I heard that a "sudden increase in wealth" can cause you to break out in a tan? Any truth to that Thug?