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rons article about rv'ing, thought the lop section would like a chance to comment


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You explanation/rationalization is more bogus that the argument that I put up :DRight now, the amount of dinar that they have, does not, in any way, reflect the amount of dinar that they need. Their economy (major part of it) is working on USD…

Have you ever imagine, how their economy would be running today if they were to use dinar, and dinar only (without the USD)..? WOuld you still be saying ~ the amount of dinar they have today is all the amount of dinar that they need.?

Let 's talk ACTUAL amount.. No more bogus talk.

From the CBI auctions, you can see their daily requirement for US dollar in Iraq is averaging between 200 to 250 million USD ~ Multiply that by 20 (to get the monthly amt) and then again by 12.

Taking conservative figure of 200 million daily~ In one week (5 days)..the market requirement is 1 billion USD

One month = 4 billion.

One year = 48 billion.

So Iraqi market needs at least 48 (USD) billion annually. You convert that amount to dinar (@ 1.17).....and we can safely assume, that WOULD be the amount of dinar that Iraq need for their market. Already about 56 billion dinar.

That's just market requirement for dinar. How about (dinar) requirement to pay for salaries... pensions, govt bills....? And more dinar requirement for international trades when they are out of Ch.7 and back in article 8 (IMF). That's easily more than 60 billion dinar (LOP amount). ;)

sorry..something went wrong with my editing.

This should be the total response to dvforumuser.

I have to question the end result of your calculations as it would put their M2, M1 (maybe even M0) when calculated as IQD+USD at a larger figure than Iraq's GDP and that would be very unusual. It would also show a very unusual ratio between M0, M1, and M2. But, even if that IS the case, after an RD things will continue as they are. Maybe after the RD dollars will be traded in for new-dinars and the official M0,M1,M2 will go up, but that is ok, the CBI has plenty of new-dinars to hand out (electronically or otherwise). If the economy is working now on X IQD + Y USD, then after and RD it will continue to work on X/1000 NID + Y USD in exactly the same fashion as the price for everything in NID will be 1000 times less and their price in USD won't change. If Y is really as large as you estimate, then the Iraq money supply will grow a great deal over the years as those Y USD are converted to Y NID (if they boost the rate to match 11) or Y*1.17 NID if they leave it where it is. Either way, there is no problem with the RD "not being enough dinars".
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Ministry of Finance is a plan to increase the value of Iraqi dinar Al-Hurria TV News - No Date Noted Ministry of Finance has prepared a plan to increase the value of the dinar against the dollar an

cant wait till the day you find out they didnt lop because im telling you right now they are not lopping and i know this for a fact haha u have no clue what you are in for and i hope you dont go aw

Delete three zeros = lop. It's been proven over and over and over again.

I have to question the end result of your calculations as it would put their M2, M1 (maybe even M0) when calculated as IQD+USD at a larger figure than Iraq's GDP and that would be very unusual. It would also show a very unusual ratio between M0, M1, and M2. But, even if that IS the case, after an RD things will continue as they are. Maybe after the RD dollars will be traded in for new-dinars and the official M0,M1,M2 will go up, but that is ok, the CBI has plenty of new-dinars to hand out (electronically or otherwise). If the economy is working now on X IQD + Y USD, then after and RD it will continue to work on X/1000 NID + Y USD in exactly the same fashion as the price for everything in NID will be 1000 times less and their price in USD won't change. If Y is really as large as you estimate, then the Iraq money supply will grow a great deal over the years as those Y USD are converted to Y NID (if they boost the rate to match 11) or Y*1.17 NID if they leave it where it is. Either way, there is no problem with the RD "not being enough dinars".

Your making the assumption those using USD will just roll over & convert upon a RD. I don't see that happening, not if they remain status quo in their monetary policies..

Remember, post invasion they were flood with USD on purpose to prop up their economy. They're used to preferring use of USD over IQD because most of the other countries, neighboring regions, etc didnt want their IQD because in previous years it was hyper inflated. For example, why would an Iraqi businessman want a Iranian currency or Syrian currency with their own issues & value of currency dropping. Now look at those regions and how they're also seeking out the USD. Stability is a preference while ease of convertibility is another big factor. The IQD has proven to be stable, but not easily converted. Imagine if the IQD became trade-able and how the neighboring regions like Syria or Iran would largely increase the demand of IQD to use.

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Your making the assumption those using USD will just roll over & convert upon a RD. I don't see that happening, not if they remain status quo in their monetary policies..

I said "over the years". I don't know how fast USD will be converted to NIDs, but I don't see that it matters as far as the argument that an RD does not provide "enough dinars".

Remember, post invasion they were flood with USD on purpose to prop up their economy.

I think the number is about $12B (and some reports say maybe as much as $8B can not be accounted for at present) and was used to pay government salaries and programs.

They're used to preferring use of USD over IQD because most of the other countries, neighboring regions, etc didnt want their IQD because in previous years it was hyper inflated. For example, why would an Iraqi businessman want a Iranian currency or Syrian currency with their own issues & value of currency dropping. Now look at those regions and how they're also seeking out the USD. Stability is a preference while ease of convertibility is another big factor. The IQD has proven to be stable, but not easily converted. Imagine if the IQD became trade-able and how the neighboring regions like Syria or Iran would largely increase the demand of IQD to use.

Ok, but if there is a big demand for NID, then the demand for dollars will go down. I'm sure the CBI will be happy to sell NID for dollars. So how is any of this a big problem?
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Your making the assumption those using USD will just roll over & convert upon a RD. I don't see that happening, not if they remain status quo in their monetary policies..

Remember, post invasion they were flood with USD on purpose to prop up their economy. They're used to preferring use of USD over IQD because most of the other countries, neighboring regions, etc didnt want their IQD because in previous years it was hyper inflated. For example, why would an Iraqi businessman want a Iranian currency or Syrian currency with their own issues & value of currency dropping. Now look at those regions and how they're also seeking out the USD. Stability is a preference while ease of convertibility is another big factor. The IQD has proven to be stable, but not easily converted. Imagine if the IQD became trade-able and how the neighboring regions like Syria or Iran would largely increase the demand of IQD to use.

Where does the thinking come from that the dinar will be some hot commotity in high demand? Iraq isnt that impressive. They have a GDP of around 130 billion. Nobody wants dinar except speculators who think it will make them rich. How do you RV your currency into high demand? People rely on currencies with an economy and stable country to back them up. We can wish all we want that Iraq will become a reserve currency but what leads us to believe they will? Why would anyone choose the dinar over Euros or USD? Because shabs says they are worth what ever he wants?

Your making the assumption those using USD will just roll over & convert upon a RD. I don't see that happening, not if they remain status quo in their monetary policies..

Remember, post invasion they were flood with USD on purpose to prop up their economy. They're used to preferring use of USD over IQD because most of the other countries, neighboring regions, etc didnt want their IQD because in previous years it was hyper inflated. For example, why would an Iraqi businessman want a Iranian currency or Syrian currency with their own issues & value of currency dropping. Now look at those regions and how they're also seeking out the USD. Stability is a preference while ease of convertibility is another big factor. The IQD has proven to be stable, but not easily converted. Imagine if the IQD became trade-able and how the neighboring regions like Syria or Iran would largely increase the demand of IQD to use.

Where does the thinking come from that the dinar will be some hot commotity in high demand? Iraq isnt that impressive. They have a GDP of around 130 billion. Nobody wants dinar except speculators who think it will make them rich. How do you RV your currency into high demand? People rely on currencies with an economy and stable country to back them up. We can wish all we want that Iraq will become a reserve currency but what leads us to believe they will? Why would anyone choose the dinar over Euros or USD? Because shabs says they are worth what ever he wants?

Plus, who is to say that Iraq will run the risk of making their currency tradeable? The whole reason they are a pegged currency is to ensure some kind of stability while they grow an economy. For a we know the dinar would tank if brought to the market. They dont have the strength that buyers are looking for and they cannot get it by a RV.

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Where does the thinking come from that the dinar will be some hot commotity in high demand? Iraq isnt that impressive. They have a GDP of around 130 billion. Nobody wants dinar except speculators who think it will make them rich. How do you RV your currency into high demand? People rely on currencies with an economy and stable country to back them up. We can wish all we want that Iraq will become a reserve currency but what leads us to believe they will? Why would anyone choose the dinar over Euros or USD? Because shabs says they are worth what ever he wants?

Where does the thinking come from that the dinar will be some hot commotity in high demand? Iraq isnt that impressive. They have a GDP of around 130 billion. Nobody wants dinar except speculators who think it will make them rich. How do you RV your currency into high demand? People rely on currencies with an economy and stable country to back them up. We can wish all we want that Iraq will become a reserve currency but what leads us to believe they will? Why would anyone choose the dinar over Euros or USD? Because shabs says they are worth what ever he wants?

Plus, who is to say that Iraq will run the risk of making their currency tradeable? The whole reason they are a pegged currency is to ensure some kind of stability while they grow an economy. For a we know the dinar would tank if brought to the market. They dont have the strength that buyers are looking for and they cannot get it by a RV.

Hot commodity? When we hear about gold on the rise, doesn't it entice people to buy buy buy? What if the value of the IQD were to be on the rise, wouldn't that entice people to buy it up? And since it is a currency, it gives people the opportunity to spend it or trade it. We're simply arguing about figures & statistics that we can not easily or realistically determine.

Since 2004, the value of the IQD has risen. It would stand to argue, that it could easily continue to rise and appreciate in the coming years. The demand may come internally or externally. And with neighboring regions having their own currency on the downfall due to sanctions, would it stand to be within reason that the neighboring countries would be willing to attempt to use IQD? At the moment, they are not, but that is likely due to the simple reasons that the currency is not internationally recognized. But, imagine if the CBI did? Neighboring regions like Iran or Syria may be more willing to use IQD in purchasing goods & services which would further demand. Higher demand helps increase value.

People will desire what benefits them. A businessman purchasing imports is likely not going to desire IQD because IQD does not really pay for imported goods. Which is why a currency like the USD is in higher demand. And with a country like Iraq where the more wealthy people would be the business owners and such, they play a pivotal point in helping boost the economy.

Are you willing to argue that the idea that the USD being accepted everywhere while the same can not be said for the IQD is not a factor in why the demand for the USD is not high within Iraq itself & surrounding sanctioned nations?

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I said "over the years". I don't know how fast USD will be converted to NIDs, but I don't see that it matters as far as the argument that an RD does not provide "enough dinars".

I think the number is about $12B (and some reports say maybe as much as $8B can not be accounted for at present) and was used to pay government salaries and programs.

Ok, but if there is a big demand for NID, then the demand for dollars will go down. I'm sure the CBI will be happy to sell NID for dollars. So how is any of this a big problem?

If you subtract the foreign currency factor from within the market, I don't think the IQD would at the moment make up for that gap. Appreciation would be necessary to fill the void.

So your saying they shipped $12B and some how managed to lose & not account for 3/4s of it? That seems to be a stretch.

Ya, if the CBI can create that demand theyll be selling more IQD not USD.

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No I cannot argue that Darin but the USD is a floating reserve currency. The IQD is pegged and only has a measily 130 billion GDP to back it. What you are describing is Iraq hyping up speculation on their currency to bring up the demand for it and I would agree Shabs is the king at this but it can only go so far. They are pegged and I would bet they would dare not float. Any foriegn currencies coming in for the demand of IQD only serves to back what they had to print to get it so they are really going nowhere. What they are getting is intrest free loans which is a huge plus for a developing economy. What is to stop them from closing the borders and RDing? That would be free tens of billions of dollars. Not saying they will but I wouldnt put it past them.

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If you subtract the foreign currency factor from within the market, I don't think the IQD would at the moment make up for that gap. Appreciation would be necessary to fill the void.

But the foreign currency is not going to suddenly go away. If it is traded in over time it will be replaced by new-dinars. So appreciation is not needed.

So your saying they shipped $12B and some how managed to lose & not account for 3/4s of it? That seems to be a stretch.

I sure ope so too.

Ya, if the CBI can create that demand theyll be selling more IQD not USD.

Right, which is not a problem for them, unless they raise the exchange rate so that those dinars will quickly come back at a loss to the CBI.

None of this points out any problem with an RD.

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Hot commodity? When we hear about gold on the rise, doesn't it entice people to buy buy buy? What if the value of the IQD were to be on the rise, wouldn't that entice people to buy it up? And since it is a currency, it gives people the opportunity to spend it or trade it. We're simply arguing about figures & statistics that we can not easily or realistically determine.

Since 2004, the value of the IQD has risen. It would stand to argue, that it could easily continue to rise and appreciate in the coming years. The demand may come internally or externally. And with neighboring regions having their own currency on the downfall due to sanctions, would it stand to be within reason that the neighboring countries would be willing to attempt to use IQD? At the moment, they are not, but that is likely due to the simple reasons that the currency is not internationally recognized. But, imagine if the CBI did? Neighboring regions like Iran or Syria may be more willing to use IQD in purchasing goods & services which would further demand. Higher demand helps increase value.

People will desire what benefits them. A businessman purchasing imports is likely not going to desire IQD because IQD does not really pay for imported goods. Which is why a currency like the USD is in higher demand. And with a country like Iraq where the more wealthy people would be the business owners and such, they play a pivotal point in helping boost the economy.

Are you willing to argue that the idea that the USD being accepted everywhere while the same can not be said for the IQD is not a factor in why the demand for the USD is not high within Iraq itself & surrounding sanctioned nations?

Actually i try to sell when its high and buy when its low. when gold moves higher, i dont buy. but then again im not hedging large amounts of usd either.

Dinarck has a point. if theres an rv there will be more people selling than buying. Treasuries would be collecting dinar from banks across the globe. so the countries will already hold large amounts of dinar, so they wont be in the market to buy.

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Actually i try to sell when its high and buy when its low. when gold moves higher, i dont buy. but then again im not hedging large amounts of usd either.

Dinarck has a point. if theres an rv there will be more people selling than buying. Treasuries would be collecting dinar from banks across the globe. so the countries will already hold large amounts of dinar, so they wont be in the market to buy.

I am not sure if you misread what I said, but the point in reference to gold is basically what you stated. We speculate it'll rise so we buy low & sell high. When we hear people claim it is going to go up, eventually the people buy it up upon speculation. So when we hear news articles, media, etc. state that gold is likely to be on the rise, the demand increases for it to purchase it to sell at a higher value.

Not sure if I worded that wrong, but it would seem rather foolish to buy high and sell low since that would be a loss. The intent is to draw a profit, not a loss.

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The highest numbers I have ever seen reported on the amount of USD usage in the market place is 40%.....but if they were MAJORLY dependant on the USD, what do you think would have happened recently?? There were articles coming out about how there is a lack of USD circulating since the whole Iran/Syria issue....a lot of the USD left with us pulling out, and even more so with the USD being smuggled out of the country.....

So my point is, dont you think if it really was true that all iraqis are using mostly USD that there would be a SERIOUS crisis in country in regards to the money supply?? If there is no dinar and no USD then the country would come to a standstill.....they are steadily printing more and more dinar every year to build a proper money supply. Which is why once they hit like 58 billion in reserves there was a rash of articles that even stated in the headlines "Iraq reaches 58 billion in reserves, should redenominate soon"......

Back in April 2011 when CBI did their "sterilizarion" policy, the demand of USD in the market was in the range of 150 million per day, so i'm not sure where you get your 40% usage :)

in an interview with "the world," said Amir Matar, the owner of well-known foreign exchange company in Baghdad, said "the Central Bank of Iraq has not only sold twenty million dollars, while he was selling up to ten days ago, nearly two hundred million a day."

He adds that "the Iraqi market needs to at least 150 million dollars a day, but the low sales of the dollar will have an impact on consumer prices, and the injured citizen would be first place."

Here another report on how dollar is being used extensively in the market...

Seller food markets of Baghdad, one would prefer not to deal in Iraqi dinars in its dealings with wholesalers in Iraqi dinars, he would prefer to carry the American dollar being smaller. "Lack of volume of foreign currency," says Abdul Amir "is the reason behind the preferential deal in the event of large deals that require millions of dinars,

The demand for USD rose steadily last year ,along with their economic activities...and reached 200 million dollar on the average.

But towards the end of last year...the demand rose even higher to between 280 million ~ 300 million..that's when Iran and Syria issue came into the picture.

They think (because they were not too sure), between 80 million to 100 million dollar were smuggled out of Iraq on a daily basis...

BUT even if that was the case....Iraq traders still get their 200 million dollar to do their trades.

CBI then took several measures, with the help of the government , to put a stop to these smuggling and now we see the auctions amount dwindled back to 250 million dollar a day. So that could be the real daily demand for money (USD) to trade.

And those data are in the daily auctions figures that we saw everyday.

200 million dollar a day is just a conservative figures...for their market/traders. If you add other requirement, like salaries, pensions, govt bills, ISX ( they buy their shares in dinar).., TOTAL requirement for dinar could easily surpass 60 billion dinar (after LOP).

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Back in April 2011 when CBI did their "sterilizarion" policy, the demand of USD in the market was in the range of 150 million per day, so i'm not sure where you get your 40% usage :)

Here another report on how dollar is being used extensively in the market...

The demand for USD rose steadily last year ,along with their economic activities...and reached 200 million dollar on the average.

But towards the end of last year...the demand rose even higher to between 280 million ~ 300 million..that's when Iran and Syria issue came into the picture.

They think (because they were not too sure), between 80 million to 100 million dollar were smuggled out of Iraq on a daily basis...

BUT even if that was the case....Iraq traders still get their 200 million dollar to do their trades.

CBI then took several measures, with the help of the government , to put a stop to these smuggling and now we see the auctions amount dwindled back to 250 million dollar a day. So that could be the real daily demand for money (USD) to trade.

And those data are in the daily auctions figures that we saw everyday.

200 million dollar a day is just a conservative figures...for their market/traders. If you add other requirement, like salaries, pensions, govt bills, ISX ( they buy their shares in dinar).., TOTAL requirement for dinar could easily surpass 60 billion dinar (after LOP).

Maybe the CBI shouldnt have "sucked" all the dinar off the streets then. :D :D

Zul, give up with this pointless argument. RD or no RD the amount of dinar in Iraq is the amount of dinar in Iraq. They know better than you how much is needed and they have been getting along without the however many trillions or billions after RD that you think they need.

Find another approach. Enoch or whatever his name is didnt even know how much dinar was available in Iraq to be used as purchasing power so I wouldnt take his "points" and run with them if I were you.

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Maybe the CBI shouldnt have "sucked" all the dinar off the streets then. :D :D

Zul, give up with this pointless argument. RD or no RD the amount of dinar in Iraq is the amount of dinar in Iraq. They know better than you how much is needed and they have been getting along without the however many trillions or billions after RD that you think they need.

Find another approach. Enoch or whatever his name is didnt even know how much dinar was available in Iraq to be used as purchasing power so I wouldnt take his "points" and run with them if I were you.

:lol: :lol: Dinarck, about time you give up on this whole LOP thing too. 30 billion dinar after LOP, or even 60 billion for that matter, will not support your LOP theory. :P

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:lol: :lol: Dinarck, about time you give up on this whole LOP thing too. 30 billion dinar after LOP, or even 60 billion for that matter, will not support your LOP theory. :P

So how many trillion dinar do they need to "RV" themselves? Why are you attempting to continue with this pointless argument that has been shown to be bogus numerous times in this thread already? How many dinar does Iraq need? Please tell us all how many dinar "must" be in Iraq.

Maybe you havent noticed that Iraq is a piss ant in the realm or true economic players. Their GDP, wannabe economy, government, basically everything is a joke and you are going to tell us that they cannot redenominate their hyperinflated currency because they wont have enough dinar? Give me a break. They are poor. Duh, no wonder they dont have the amount of dinar that YOU believe they should have in their markets. Niether you or Ewok have half a clue as to how much dinar is needed for Iraq to function. For all you or any of us know they may decide on a delicate balance of USD and newly redenominated dinar from now until forever.

Pick another argument. This one is stupid.

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Maybe the CBI shouldnt have "sucked" all the dinar off the streets then. :D :D

Zul, give up with this pointless argument. RD or no RD the amount of dinar in Iraq is the amount of dinar in Iraq. They know better than you how much is needed and they have been getting along without the however many trillions or billions after RD that you think they need.

Find another approach. Enoch or whatever his name is didnt even know how much dinar was available in Iraq to be used as purchasing power so I wouldnt take his "points" and run with them if I were you.

For a country that deals with mostly hard currency

Lets say that 30 trillion exists in money supply at the given moment

Lets say that they remove 3 zeros in terms of a LOP

Now we have 30 billion in circulation for the money supply

The U.S. value is roughly $25.8 Billion Dollars

Okay, here is where more of the fun begins

Out of that 30 billion, we can likely determine not all the IQDs exist within the country of Iraq

Where are they?

Individual speculators

Dinar dealers

Some central banks

Currency Exchange stations

Now within Iraq where is the IQD?

Well banks must be holding X amount in their vaults

CBI must be holding X amount in their vaults

And businesses must be holding X amount in their safes

Okay, so we have 32 million citizens

But lets say that external dinar makes up about 5 trillion (billion)

Internal dinar that is not in individual citizens hands is another 5 trillion (billion)

So out of that 30 trillion, we can safely believe that only 20 trillion is available to the private market

Now keep in mind, I was being conservative with the figures as I would likely bet that the figures are higher

That leaves 20 trillion (Billion upon a LOP) that may be in citizens hands.

The U.S. value of that is 17.2 Billion

How much USD value is that per person?

$537.5 (roughly 625k, or 625 lopped)

What is their GDP per person? Obviously higher than that, right?

Seems a gap is necessary to fill there. This is where the demand for USD comes in to fill the void.

So, I think the theory that Iraq does not have enough IQD to support their economy at this given times holds substance at their current rate. The only reason it has successfully limped along is the USD has helped their economy survive. If their USD suddenly vanished, we would likely see a lot of movement. But, money just doesn't vanish, so we know that is not a concern. But!! What is happening is it is being siphoned into to neighboring sanctioned countries. But what is the local market getting in return? IQD or crappy sanctioned country currency??

If IQD - that could help reduce circulation, but the numbers just seem to continue to grow..

If sanctioned country currency than the US value of their reserves should be decreasing

Ironically, we have see everything on the up & up

They claim higher reserves (highest of all time)

Their MS figures continue to grow

Their auctions continue to maintain high

That would create an imbalance IMO

Something is not really going up (it may be the circulation is decreasing, their reserves are really decreasing, or some other factor)

So how many trillion dinar do they need to "RV" themselves? Why are you attempting to continue with this pointless argument that has been shown to be bogus numerous times in this thread already? How many dinar does Iraq need? Please tell us all how many dinar "must" be in Iraq.

Maybe you havent noticed that Iraq is a piss ant in the realm or true economic players. Their GDP, wannabe economy, government, basically everything is a joke and you are going to tell us that they cannot redenominate their hyperinflated currency because they wont have enough dinar? Give me a break. They are poor. Duh, no wonder they dont have the amount of dinar that YOU believe they should have in their markets. Niether you or Ewok have half a clue as to how much dinar is needed for Iraq to function. For all you or any of us know they may decide on a delicate balance of USD and newly redenominated dinar from now until forever.

Pick another argument. This one is stupid.

You come across as attempting to be all-knowing, yet anyone with any logical thinking would know that you don't know just as much as anyone else does.

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For a country that deals with mostly hard currency

Lets say that 30 trillion exists in money supply at the given moment

Lets say that they remove 3 zeros in terms of a LOP

Now we have 30 billion in circulation for the money supply

The U.S. value is roughly $25.8 Billion Dollars

Okay, here is where more of the fun begins

Out of that 30 billion, we can likely determine not all the IQDs exist within the country of Iraq

Where are they?

Individual speculators

Dinar dealers

Some central banks

Currency Exchange stations

Now within Iraq where is the IQD?

Well banks must be holding X amount in their vaults

CBI must be holding X amount in their vaults

And businesses must be holding X amount in their safes

Okay, so we have 32 million citizens

But lets say that external dinar makes up about 5 trillion (billion)

Internal dinar that is not in individual citizens hands is another 5 trillion (billion)

So out of that 30 trillion, we can safely believe that only 20 trillion is available to the private market

Now keep in mind, I was being conservative with the figures as I would likely bet that the figures are higher

That leaves 20 trillion (Billion upon a LOP) that may be in citizens hands.

The U.S. value of that is 17.2 Billion

How much USD value is that per person?

$537.5 (roughly 625k, or 625 lopped)

What is their GDP per person? Obviously higher than that, right?

Seems a gap is necessary to fill there. This is where the demand for USD comes in to fill the void.

So, I think the theory that Iraq does not have enough IQD to support their economy at this given times holds substance at their current rate. The only reason it has successfully limped along is the USD has helped their economy survive. If their USD suddenly vanished, we would likely see a lot of movement. But, money just doesn't vanish, so we know that is not a concern. But!! What is happening is it is being siphoned into to neighboring sanctioned countries. But what is the local market getting in return? IQD or crappy sanctioned country currency??

If IQD - that could help reduce circulation, but the numbers just seem to continue to grow..

If sanctioned country currency than the US value of their reserves should be decreasing

Ironically, we have see everything on the up & up

They claim higher reserves (highest of all time)

Their MS figures continue to grow

Their auctions continue to maintain high

That would create an imbalance IMO

Something is not really going up (it may be the circulation is decreasing, their reserves are really decreasing, or some other factor)

You come across as attempting to be all-knowing, yet anyone with any logical thinking would know that you don't know just as much as anyone else does.

Darin, good point.

:)

So how many trillion dinar do they need to "RV" themselves? Why are you attempting to continue with this pointless argument that has been shown to be bogus numerous times in this thread already? How many dinar does Iraq need? Please tell us all how many dinar "must" be in Iraq.

Maybe you havent noticed that Iraq is a piss ant in the realm or true economic players. Their GDP, wannabe economy, government, basically everything is a joke and you are going to tell us that they cannot redenominate their hyperinflated currency because they wont have enough dinar? Give me a break. They are poor. Duh, no wonder they dont have the amount of dinar that YOU believe they should have in their markets. Niether you or Ewok have half a clue as to how much dinar is needed for Iraq to function. For all you or any of us know they may decide on a delicate balance of USD and newly redenominated dinar from now until forever.

Pick another argument. This one is stupid.

LOL! :lol:

Easiest way go get out of an argument you cant win....brush them off as stupid or bogus. :lol:

Edited by zul
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That leaves 20 trillion (Billion upon a LOP) that may be in citizens hands.

The U.S. value of that is 17.2 Billion

How much USD value is that per person?

$537.5 (roughly 625k, or 625 lopped)

What is their GDP per person? Obviously higher than that, right?

Seems a gap is necessary to fill there. This is where the demand for USD comes in to fill the void.

M1 is never equal to GDP, (or M1/person is never equal to GDP/person). The US M1 value is only a couple of trillion. So Iraq's is very high already, perhaps due to it being a cash centric economy. But claiming something is wrong if M1 is not equal to GDP is just incorrect economics.
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M1 is never equal to GDP, (or M1/person is never equal to GDP/person). The US M1 value is only a couple of trillion. So Iraq's is very high already, perhaps due to it being a cash centric economy. But claiming something is wrong if M1 is not equal to GDP is just incorrect economics.

I was no trying to say that their was an imbalance between GDP & M1. I was simply trying to create the visual of how much IQD would be in Iraqi citizen hands if it were to be equally distributed while factoring in IQD that is outside of the country, IQD held by speculators, IQD within the Iraq stored in banks, and also IQD held in reserves by the CBI.

Considering that Iraq is a cash heavy society, we can put into perspective about how much really exists to be available to the people. I was conservative on guessing at figures so it could be much higher that is out of reach for an Iraqi citizen.

I know that some people claim that IQD private speculation alone may make up for 3-5 trillion... When we account for banks outside of Iraq, dinar dealers, and others in nearby countries who likely hold to distribute upon the speculation, and including neighboring regions that may sometimes deal with IQD based upon trade, that doesn't leave much within their country to use for IQD.

Now, internally (within Iraq itself) we also have to put into the equation that the CBI holds reserves (which probably is a lot held in vaults), banks around the country to help ease their own local economy & customers, and including businesses that hold IQD on hand to conduct transaction, we can probably make an assumption that not much is held by the private citizen.

Now, this is opinion based, but there is no data out there to help support or deny my personal opinion and theory, but I am sure upon any more in-depth research I would be able to fine-tune my speculation for the amounts that may be available to the public within Iraq.

As of recently, we may easily speculate that the neighboring countries (especially sanctioned countries) have used the black market to exchange any IQD that they have in their possession for USD. I am sure any wise businessman would not be so willing to take a currency from a country that has sanctions & also a failing economy because they would be trading for something that is losing value. So, it would seem logical to assume their exchanging IQD for USD. This is drawing USD out of the market from Iraq and putting more IQD within the country.

Now if you were the CBI, and you recognize your own currency as a liability, would you rather see it in the hands of foreign individuals or citizens of the national currency? I would imagine that they would desire it to be used where it was intended (within their own country). So I am sure the CBI sees that any IQD coming in is not necessarily a bad thing. But they're giving up USD in exchange which is still needed at this time for businesses to run efficiently.

If your a businesses owner who orders imported goods, do you think your IQD is simply going to pay the bill? Probably not, as most foreign suppliers would request USD in a form of payment. An exception maybe nearby countries such as Iran or Kuwait because they may simply be able to re-funnel the currency back into Iraq to purchase goods from them.

Imagine if a business owner did not have to worry about conversion of currencies to conduct business on a global scale. Imagine what that would do to their own currency in terms of global demand and demand within the country. Would that have any bearing on how the people of Iraq would treat their own currency? I am sure it would, as it may be even desired by other nearby countries (especially sanctioned countries with a failing currency).

The U.S. dollar seems to be on a steady decline and look at what some wealthy people do to preserve their wealth. We see gold on the rise at times because it is a great hedge against inflation.

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To say that they cannot redenominate because there wont be enough dinar is a weak argument. It would be no different than it is now. How are they functioning right now? Darin I have to say I figured you would be way above such a petty argument. 9 years of functioning on the amount of dinar that you guys say is impossible to function on is absolute PROOF of the stupidity of this argument. Post RD they will have a dinar equal to the dollar. Iraqi could then turn in their USD for the new dinar. That USD goes into their reserves to back the dinar it was given for. There for the amount of new dinar increases. As their economy grows they can print new dinar as long as their reserves grow too. Why are we even still debating this nonsense?

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To say that they cannot redenominate because there wont be enough dinar is a weak argument. It would be no different than it is now. How are they functioning right now? Darin I have to say I figured you would be way above such a petty argument. 9 years of functioning on the amount of dinar that you guys say is impossible to function on is absolute PROOF of the stupidity of this argument. Post RD they will have a dinar equal to the dollar. Iraqi could then turn in their USD for the new dinar. That USD goes into their reserves to back the dinar it was given for. There for the amount of new dinar increases. As their economy grows they can print new dinar as long as their reserves grow too. Why are we even still debating this nonsense?

Personally, I think dinarck is absolutely correct. Iraq has continued to print several trillion dinars each year as reserves have increased. I can see no reason for that to change after a redenomination. They have functioned without complaint of a currency shortage since the issuance of the new IQD and their law requires that all currency issued be backed by their reserves, which it has been. As their economy grows, reserves would logically increase, allowing for the printing of additional currency. Pretty simple.

The quoted article is more than two years old, and hundreds of subsequent articles make very clear what their intentions are. Debating the meaning of THIS particular one seems an effort in futility, the only purpose of which appears to be to muddy the waters. Plans and interpretations change over a period of two years, and it's more sensible to discuss what's being said NOW. Things are confusing enough without digging up a single article from 25 months ago and declaring it to demonstrate their intent to RV. :huh:

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I'm new to this investment and to the site, but I came across a scenario that I think explains this whole RV thing.

According to numbers I've seen from 2009, the "average hourly pay" for an Iraqi citizen is roughly US $2.10 per hour. That currently equates to ~2,500 Iraqi dinar, per hour. So let's take an average, early 20's Iraqi boy that gets a job, say "moving rocks". He goes out and puts in a hard 10 hour day worth of work. At the end of the day his supervisor approaches and hands him his fresh, crisp 25,000 dinar note.

The boy takes his note and heads for the convenience store. He proceeds to fill his car up with gas, grab a coke, a bag of chips and a candy bar, basically blowing his entire days pay. He goes home and goes to sleep happy. The next day the boy gets up, goes to work, and again earns his 25,000 dinar. However, his car is full of gas and his belly is still full of sugar, so he takes this 25,000 dinar note home and puts it in a little tiny box under his bed.

Now, day 3 begins and low-and-behold, this is the day that this magical "RV" happens. This is the day that an Iraqi dinar transforms from being worth a fraction of a US dollar to being worth 3 US dollars. The Iraqi boys wakes up, sees the morning news, grabs his 25,000 dinar note from under his bed, and proceeds to go down to the local Mercedes dealership where he buys himself a brand new $75,000 SLK 500.

Wait.........what???????????????????

This sounds pretty absurd, but it sounds like this is what the pro RV'ers are saying will happen. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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I was no trying to say that their was an imbalance between GDP & M1. I was simply trying to create the visual of how much IQD would be in Iraqi citizen hands if it were to be equally distributed while factoring in IQD that is outside of the country, IQD held by speculators, IQD within the Iraq stored in banks, and also IQD held in reserves by the CBI.

Ok, but when you said

How much USD value is that per person?

$537.5 (roughly 625k, or 625 lopped)

What is their GDP per person? Obviously higher than that, right?

Seems a gap is necessary to fill there. This is where the demand for USD comes in to fill the void.

There is only a "gap" that needs to be filled if you are comparing GDP per person to M1 per person, so isn't that just what you were dong? Maybe I didn't understand what your were saying here.

The bottom line here for me is that the Iraqi economy is working, even the IMF is estimating 12% growth this year and inflate is 5% or so. That is all pretty good for a war torn country. So the supply of dinars and dollars are working to lubricate the economy, trade is happening, the market is functioning. The RD puts the new-dinar on par with the dollar so maybe at that point the dollar portion of the money supply will start to convert to new-dinars. But you don't encourage that by increasing the value of the dinar by even 10x (to just under a penny). Note that doing so would put M1 about 3x larger than GDP, which would be a disaster. The price of everything would go up as demand wildly outstripped supply and with the CBI not being able to come close to meeting the foreign currency needs of importers (even ignoring the exchange demands of speculators). And that is only going to 0.01 (or just under).

I'm new to this investment and to the site, but I came across a scenario that I think explains this whole RV thing.

According to numbers I've seen from 2009, the "average hourly pay" for an Iraqi citizen is roughly US $2.10 per hour. That currently equates to ~2,500 Iraqi dinar, per hour. So let's take an average, early 20's Iraqi boy that gets a job, say "moving rocks". He goes out and puts in a hard 10 hour day worth of work. At the end of the day his supervisor approaches and hands him his fresh, crisp 25,000 dinar note.

The boy takes his note and heads for the convenience store. He proceeds to fill his car up with gas, grab a coke, a bag of chips and a candy bar, basically blowing his entire days pay. He goes home and goes to sleep happy. The next day the boy gets up, goes to work, and again earns his 25,000 dinar. However, his car is full of gas and his belly is still full of sugar, so he takes this 25,000 dinar note home and puts it in a little tiny box under his bed.

Now, day 3 begins and low-and-behold, this is the day that this magical "RV" happens. This is the day that an Iraqi dinar transforms from being worth a fraction of a US dollar to being worth 3 US dollars. The Iraqi boys wakes up, sees the morning news, grabs his 25,000 dinar note from under his bed, and proceeds to go down to the local Mercedes dealership where he buys himself a brand new $75,000 SLK 500.

Wait.........what???????????????????

This sounds pretty absurd, but it sounds like this is what the pro RV'ers are saying will happen. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Yes, it is absurd yet that is what the go-RVers are claiming will happen (well some only to 0.10 instead of 3.00 but the same principle applies).

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Ok, but when you said There is only a "gap" that needs to be filled if you are comparing GDP per person to M1 per person, so isn't that just what you were dong? Maybe I didn't understand what your were saying here.

The bottom line here for me is that the Iraqi economy is working, even the IMF is estimating 12% growth this year and inflate is 5% or so. That is all pretty good for a war torn country. So the supply of dinars and dollars are working to lubricate the economy, trade is happening, the market is functioning. The RD puts the new-dinar on par with the dollar so maybe at that point the dollar portion of the money supply will start to convert to new-dinars. But you don't encourage that by increasing the value of the dinar by even 10x (to just under a penny). Note that doing so would put M1 about 3x larger than GDP, which would be a disaster. The price of everything would go up as demand wildly outstripped supply and with the CBI not being able to come close to meeting the foreign currency needs of importers (even ignoring the exchange demands of speculators). And that is only going to 0.01 (or just under).

Yes, it is absurd yet that is what the go-RVers are claiming will happen (well some only to 0.10 instead of 3.00 but the same principle applies).

Yeah. These simple concepts are not that hard to understand. Anything to discount a RD though will be stated as fact no matter how many times it is shown to be flawed. No one wants a RD but I think a real explaination as to why one is unlikely is in order. I for one would love to hear it.

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Yeah. These simple concepts are not that hard to understand. Anything to discount a RD though will be stated as fact no matter how many times it is shown to be flawed. No one wants a RD but I think a real explaination as to why one is unlikely is in order. I for one would love to hear it.

I too hope the dinar RV's. I could do a lot of things with a few million bucks. The problem is that I've seen virtually no evidence from the RV'ers while the lopsters have provided a great deal of evidence and precedence. At some point logic has to enter the equation. And like you, I would love to hear why an RV is both logical and likely.

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May I ask one other question that is a little off topic? And please forgive me if this has been answered in previous posts. Why are all of the gurus anonymous? I purchased my dinars because I trusted the person who told me about it, and I was told I had to "do it now, or it would be too late." But this is something that has always sort of bothered me. Why the anonymity, and what qualifies them to be giving opinions and advice on an investment of this magnitude? I couldn't imagine anyone going to a doctor or hiring a lawyer that would not provide their name and/or credentials.

I hope no one thinks I'm trying to get anything started here, that's not my intent. I ask in all sincerity. Being new to this, it's something that's been on my mind a lot, and I think it to be a valid question. I'm sure there is a reasonable explanation, I would just like to know what it is.

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