rons article about rv'ing, thought the lop section would like a chance to comment

[dinarck]

the thing is, i feel they can tip there hand so to speak, its not like people are going to cbi and buying dinar, shabbs has admitted releasing u.s.d for dinar, shabbs has gotten to a point were he is comfortable with what is out, and he knows what he will be on the hook for, that is if they have to pay it back.. all my opinion of course

I have another thought and its one you are not going to like.

Maybe they are pumping up sales of their dinar to help fill their resevers before they RD. I dont think it is any secret that they benefit from selling dinar and recieving foriegn currency in return. They can basically print all they want.

This theory is gut wrenching to anyone who believes in a RV but I simply cannot think of any other reason that they would even hint to even a minor RV such as .00085 to .001.

Also we need to keep in mind that they are in dire need of USD in their markets at the moment. Alot of dollars are crossing their borders and they are powerless to stop it. This is putting a strain on the actual value of the dinar in the markets. With massive amounts of dollars tied up in their budget, what better way to obtain billions of US dollars than to hint towards an appreciation?

Horrible, ugly theory I know but who knows.

[sonny1]

I have another thought and its one you are not going to like.

Maybe they are pumping up sales of their dinar to help fill their resevers before they RD. I dont think it is any secret that they benefit from selling dinar and recieving foriegn currency in return. They can basically print all they want.

This theory is gut wrenching to anyone who believes in a RV but I simply cannot think of any other reason that they would even hint to even a minor RV such as .00085 to .001.

Also we need to keep in mind that they are in dire need of USD in their markets at the moment. Alot of dollars are crossing their borders and they are powerless to stop it. This is putting a strain on the actual value of the dinar in the markets. With massive amounts of dollars tied up in their budget, what better way to obtain billions of US dollars than to hint towards an appreciation?

Horrible, ugly theory I know but who knows.

then why release u.s.d, i would bet half has ended up in iran-syria like those articles state, i think you would agree that would be a god awful plan, and with your plan it would work better if they rv'd actually

[dinarck]

then why release u.s.d, i would bet half has ended up in iran-syria like those articles state, i think you would agree that would be a god awful plan, and with your plan it would work better if they rv'd actually

They have to sell USD at their auctions to keep the value of the dinar stable. That is the whole point of the auctions. The more USD that leaves Iraq through the black market the higher the demand for it becomes in Iraq. This lowers the actual value of the dinar in the markets.

Pegged currencies like the dinar must sell their currency to obtian foriegn currency in return.

[sonny1]

They have to sell USD at their auctions to keep the value of the dinar stable. That is the whole point of the auctions. The more USD that leaves Iraq through the black market the higher the demand for it becomes in Iraq. This lowers the actual value of the dinar in the markets.

Pegged currencies like the dinar must sell their currency to obtian foriegn currency in return.

true, but i dont think shabbs is pumping anymore, ill tell you what though, he has done 1 heck of a job at it over the last 8 years though

[zul]

I like what Enoch pointed out : some 24 yrs ago (year 1988)...they had USD 80 Billion worth of purchasing power for slightly above 20 million population. Now (assuming they LOP)......~ they will have USD 26 billion purchasing power for 30 million population. Add inflation rate and increased number of population to that amount (using USD 15 to 18 /barrel to USD 107 to 110 / barrel today as a benchmark for inflation rate)........and you'll be able to see that USD26 billion (30 billion dinar) for Iraq in 2012 is a joke.

[dinarck]

I like what Enoch pointed out : some 24 yrs ago (year 1988)...they had USD 80 Billion worth of purchasing power for slightly above 20 million population. Now (assuming they LOP)......~ they will have USD 26 billion purchasing power for 30 million population. Add inflation rate and increased number of population to that amount (using USD 15 to 18 /barrel to USD 107 to 110 / barrel today as a benchmark for inflation rate)........and you'll be able to see that USD26 billion (30 billion dinar) for Iraq in 2012 is a joke.

How would they have 26 billion? Their M2 is over 60 trillion. Much of that is electronic accounts which could be considered purchasing power.

Plus, what other choice do they have? If you say RV then please explain how.

[zul]

How would they have 26 billion? Their M2 is over 60 trillion. Much of that is electronic accounts which could be considered purchasing power.

Plus, what other choice do they have? If you say RV then please explain how.

OK..let's take 60 trillion. After LOP, it becomes 60 billion dinar x 0.86 = 52 billion dollar of purchasing power. Still much less than their 80 billion dollar back in 1988 ( and that is BEFORE u add in the inflation and population factor)

And once released from Chp.7 and they are moved from Article 14 to article 8, Iraq ( i assumed) would want to be involved in international trades, hence increased requirement for dinar, do you think 52 billion dollar (60 billion dinar) is enough..?

So how much dinar does Iraq really need? Using 1988 as basis (equilibrium point ~ as used by the MOP)), just to maintain 1988 status quo (alone) in 2012, Iraq would need 25 bilion dinar x 7 (inflation rate) = 175 billion dinar. Add population factor of 40% : 175 * 1.4 = 245 billion dinar. That's the amount of dinar that Iraq need today.

And since in 1988 the total purchasing power then was 80 billion at USD 3.2)......the total amount of purchasing power that Iraq need in 2012 ( I repeat ~ just to maintain 1988 lifestyle without modernization), iraq would need more than 700 billion dollar : 245 dinar x 3.2 .

How they are going to RV..? I'm just showing you..why they can't LOP

[sonny1]

OK..let's take 60 trillion. After LOP, it becomes 60 billion dinar x 0.86 = 52 billion dollar of purchasing power. Still much less than their 80 billion dollar back in 1988 ( and that is BEFORE u add in the inflation and population factor)

And once released from Chp.7 and they are moved from Article 14 to article 8, Iraq ( i assumed) would want to be involved in international trades, hence increased requirement for dinar, do you think 52 billion dollar (60 billion dinar) is enough..?

So how much dinar does Iraq really need? Using 1988 as basis (equilibrium point ~ as used by the MOP)), just to maintain 1988 status quo (alone) in 2012, Iraq would need 25 bilion dinar x 7 (inflation rate) = 175 billion dinar. Add population factor of 40% : 175 * 1.4 = 245 billion dinar. That's the amount of dinar that Iraq need today.

And since in 1988 the total purchasing power then was 80 billion at USD 3.2)......the total amount of purchasing power that Iraq need in 2012 ( I repeat ~ just to maintain 1988 lifestyle without modernization), iraq would need more than 700 billion dollar : 245 dinar x 3.2 .

How they are going to RV..? I'm just showing you..why they can't LOP

i love were your heads at with this

[zul]

i love were your heads at with this

Coming from you Sonny1...that means a lot.

TQ

[dinarck]

OK..let's take 60 trillion. After LOP, it becomes 60 billion dinar x 0.86 = 52 billion dollar of purchasing power. Still much less than their 80 billion dollar back in 1988 ( and that is BEFORE u add in the inflation and population factor)

And once released from Chp.7 and they are moved from Article 14 to article 8, Iraq ( i assumed) would want to be involved in international trades, hence increased requirement for dinar, do you think 52 billion dollar (60 billion dinar) is enough..?

So how much dinar does Iraq really need? Using 1988 as basis (equilibrium point ~ as used by the MOP)), just to maintain 1988 status quo (alone) in 2012, Iraq would need 25 bilion dinar x 7 (inflation rate) = 175 billion dinar. Add population factor of 40% : 175 * 1.4 = 245 billion dinar. That's the amount of dinar that Iraq need today.

And since in 1988 the total purchasing power then was 80 billion at USD 3.2)......the total amount of purchasing power that Iraq need in 2012 ( I repeat ~ just to maintain 1988 lifestyle without modernization), iraq would need more than 700 billion dollar : 245 dinar x 3.2 .

How they are going to RV..? I'm just showing you..why they can't LOP

Iraq has been getting along with less for almost ten years. If they "LOP" they get along the way they are. To say they cannot "LOP" because they wouldnt have enough purchasing power isnt going to cut it. If Iraq wants wealth in their country they are going to have to earn it like the rest of the world. RVs never have and never will create wealth in any country. They need to start training their people for actual jobs. They need factories, agriculture, an economy, something other than oil to export, technology, infrastructure, small businesses, ect. This whole notion that Iraq can "RV" its way into wealth is ludicrous. They are doing well on oil exports and that will definately continue to grow. The problem is this doesnt employ enough of their population. I think everyone can agree that RVs cannot take the place of jobs. The argument that will come next is that a RV will create jobs. HAHAHA.... The US maybe ought to think about RVing sometime soon then.

[dvforumuser]

How they are going to RV..? I'm just showing you..why they can't LOP

Their economy is working now with the present value of their money supply, whatever that is. They have good growth with modest inflation. So it will still work after an RD as an RD does not change the VALUE of the money supply. So your argument must be wrong.

[kwg]

I wish I had more than 1+ for you zul. I agree with your assessment. I have got it a little higher than that but your calcs are very close to mine.

[dvforumuser]

it doesnt matter, its 2 years old, i think they will rv at 1 dime per dinar u.s.

Oh ok, you're not saying this as an explanation of the article, but just as what you think will happen in spite of the article. Gotcha. thanks!

[zul]

Iraq has been getting along with less for almost ten years. If they "LOP" they get along the way they are. To say they cannot "LOP" because they wouldnt have enough purchasing power isnt going to cut it. If Iraq wants wealth in their country they are going to have to earn it like the rest of the world. RVs never have and never will create wealth in any country. They need to start training their people for actual jobs. They need factories, agriculture, an economy, something other than oil to export, technology, infrastructure, small businesses, ect. This whole notion that Iraq can "RV" its way into wealth is ludicrous. They are doing well on oil exports and that will definately continue to grow. The problem is this doesnt employ enough of their population. I think everyone can agree that RVs cannot take the place of jobs. The argument that will come next is that a RV will create jobs. HAHAHA.... The US maybe ought to think about RVing sometime soon then.

I dont call the 1 million march Sadr had last week (calling for better economy, better std of living, better utilities..and 2 million march ( that's coming up soon), as "getting along" fine. .

What you are explaining, are the exact reasons why they can't LOP.

Edited March 28, 2012 by zul

[kwg]

If they LOP they are gonna wish they didn't if you know what I mean. Kiss the ISX goodby and about 10 other things that come to mind. I'm not saying they couldn't but they stand to make more off this than anyone else.

[zul]

I wish I had more than 1+ for you zul. I agree with your assessment. I have got it a little higher than that but your calcs are very close to mine.

Actually, you are right kwg, it should be higher. I'm more conservative with my numbers.

[caughtinthecrossfire]

siiiigh....y'know...I want so much to enjoy both sides to the speculation...three if you divide between LoP RD and RV

I am getting a bit frustrated though reading along. dinark, you know I posted last week. I am slow at my reply times but...I do try. My point of frustration is when a nonLop person comments, their resoning is drawn into question for looking at bonafied info with a common sense view.

For me, I look at things that come out in the news stating facts like more than 1trillion barrels per year to be produced(per the Cental Gov will be pumped at a cost of we'll just keep it simple at say...a sweet deal of $60/barrel in USD(naturally minus projected loss to pay back infrastructure investors)....please explain to my how that does not go a very long way to back up an argument for RV potential. If you throw your M2 commentary into the mix...you are not encouraging anyone to understand. I took the comment to say that what comes in vs what is being spent in the budget is giving serious credit to the dinar being an undervalued currency that needs revaluation. Please don't throw out numbers for dinar printed. What is actually in circulation is still under even MORE speculation. all my opinion...but my comment is ment to stay focused on what zul said. I read things like this link and see a lot of money being made by Iraq.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/kurds-may-halt-crude-exports-if-iraq-withholds-1-5-billion-1-.html

with the standard $100-110 being reduced to $60/barrel per day...in a year with 320 (I wish I could remember the article that I read they had 320 days of production prior to increases in prod) days of production and relatively no change to the price per barrell...please tell me why the math does not reflect an annual income of USD totalling over 65trillion? I mean....you can throw terms like M2 at me all day, but if you continue to talk down (not talking down to you) to folks with big stuff like M2...I read it and scratch my head asking those who presume to understand so much..."why the heck does this income of 65trillion dollars (lawd knows how many dinar ) not boost revaluation potential. You'll need to break it down a bit more than just throwing an acronym like M2 around for me and then "Lopping" the ball back in our court for "you say it will RV..why"

I really hope you get what I'm saying to you dinarck...it's jus that you spew info out that seems (intended) to over ride and sidetrack what a previous poster legitimately stated.

[dinarck]

I dont call the 1 million march Sadr had last week (calling for better economy, better std of living, better utilities..and 2 million march ( that's coming up soon), as "getting along" fine. .

What you are explaining, are the exact reasons why they can't LOP.

Ooooo Go figure. A country full of poverished people with a corrupt Gov. in a backwards part of the world demanding better living conditions. Hummm... I guess a massive RV is right around the corner after all. Wonder why Eygpt didnt RV but instead collapsed and the sitting Gov. were run out of the country. What else is new. If your argument is that the people aren't happy then you need to rethink your view of economics. Iraqis can complain all they want and they are in the right to do so. How does this mean the CBI will increase the value of the dinar by 1000 times its value? The dinar value isnt the problem. The problem is what you pointed out above.

(calling for better economy, better std of living, better utilities..and 2 million march ( that's coming up soon),

Please explain how a "RV" will fix these problems. It wont. It would make them worse. The only ones who would recognize that RV would be the CBI. You really think your bank is going to give you millions of USD for your dinar because Shabs "says" the dinar is worth it? :lol:

[caughtinthecrossfire]

Actually, you are right kwg, it should be higher. I'm more conservative with my numbers.

Wow, zul...I was sooo right on your heals with that one. I was completely tracking with you...er...I think....

but yeah, dinarck...I don't mean it to be an arse...I just think I understood what zul was saying in these terms. I have NO idea how to use the M2 thingy in a sentence

"M2 are the cutest cuple, aint they?"

[zul]

Ooooo Go figure. A country full of poverished people with a corrupt Gov. in a backwards part of the world demanding better living conditions. Hummm... I guess a massive RV is right around the corner after all. Wonder why Eygpt didnt RV but instead collapsed and the sitting Gov. were run out of the country. What else is new. If your argument is that the people aren't happy then you need to rethink your view of economics. Iraqis can complain all they want and they are in the right to do so. How does this mean the CBI will increase the value of the dinar by 1000 times its value? The dinar value isnt the problem. The problem is what you pointed out above.

(calling for better economy, better std of living, better utilities..and 2 million march ( that's coming up soon),

Please explain how a "RV" will fix these problems. It wont. It would make them worse. The only ones who would recognize that RV would be the CBI. You really think your bank is going to give you millions of USD for your dinar because Shabs "says" the dinar is worth it? :lol:

Dinarck..you are ranting

This is the LOP section and i just pointed to you why Iraq cannot and will not LOP. If you want to know how RV will fix their problem, read up.

[caughtinthecrossfire]

Ooooo Go figure. A country full of poverished people with a corrupt Gov. in a backwards part of the world demanding better living conditions. Hummm... I guess a massive RV is right around the corner after all......The dinar value isnt the problem. The problem is what you pointed out above.

(calling for better economy, better std of living, better utilities..and 2 million march ( that's coming up soon),

Dude, there yall go with that poverished people thing agian. Every thing I have been reading indicates that only 1/3rd the pop is poor and the majority of them are not impoverished. Most of the poor live in the outlying areas. Those numbers are not so much poor as they are technically challenged in terms of global wealth. Farmers provide for their families but the majority suffer mostly in terms of medical treatment availability. that 1/3 HAS to be far less than 1/4 in terms of actually poverty stricken people. The term "poor" I see you and Legolas use is not appropriately used. Iraq is NOT NOT NOT the 5th poorest nation as I've seen stated in this section. Serve me up some crow on that....please...but stop saying they are sooo poor until you can back up that notion.

[dinarck]

siiiigh....y'know...I want so much to enjoy both sides to the speculation...three if you divide between LoP RD and RV

I am getting a bit frustrated though reading along. dinark, you know I posted last week. I am slow at my reply times but...I do try. My point of frustration is when a nonLop person comments, their resoning is drawn into question for looking at bonafied info with a common sense view.

For me, I look at things that come out in the news stating facts like more than 1trillion barrels per year to be produced(per the Cental Gov will be pumped at a cost of we'll just keep it simple at say...a sweet deal of $60/barrel in USD(naturally minus projected loss to pay back infrastructure investors)....please explain to my how that does not go a very long way to back up an argument for RV potential. If you throw your M2 commentary into the mix...you are not encouraging anyone to understand. I took the comment to say that what comes in vs what is being spent in the budget is giving serious credit to the dinar being an undervalued currency that needs revaluation. Please don't throw out numbers for dinar printed. What is actually in circulation is still under even MORE speculation. all my opinion...but my comment is ment to stay focused on what zul said. I read things like this link and see a lot of money being made by Iraq.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/kurds-may-halt-crude-exports-if-iraq-withholds-1-5-billion-1-.html

with the standard $100-110 being reduced to $60/barrel per day...in a year with 320 (I wish I could remember the article that I read they had 320 days of production prior to increases in prod) days of production and relatively no change to the price per barrell...please tell me why the math does not reflect an annual income of USD totalling over 65trillion? I mean....you can throw terms like M2 at me all day, but if you continue to talk down (not talking down to you) to folks with big stuff like M2...I read it and scratch my head asking those who presume to understand so much..."why the heck does this income of 65trillion dollars (lawd knows how many dinar ) not boost revaluation potential. You'll need to break it down a bit more than just throwing an acronym like M2 around for me and then "Lopping" the ball back in our court for "you say it will RV..why"

I really hope you get what I'm saying to you dinarck...it's jus that you spew info out that seems (intended) to over ride and sidetrack what a previous poster legitimately stated.

Whats going on CTCF.

Iraq right now is pumping around 2.5 MPD. Thats around 100 billion a year and matches pretty much their budget. As a matter of fact they had to BORROW money this year to fund their budget. RTheir budget is paid for by sales of oil. How would a RV help any of this other than to be able to fund their budgets for the next thousand years on their "RV" money?

To say that they will be hitting a trillion a year anytime soon or ever is a stretch. And that is at a 100 dollars a barrel.

They dont even have 65 trillion worth of oil in the ground even at 200 dollars a barrel. There isnt even close to 65 trillion worth of currency in circulation on the entire planet.

No one has legitimately pointed out anything that cannot easily be shown to be either wishful thinking or just plain wrong.

[zul]

Wow, zul...I was sooo right on your heals with that one. I was completely tracking with you...er...I think....

but yeah, dinarck...I don't mean it to be an arse...I just think I understood what zul was saying in these terms. I have NO idea how to use the M2 thingy in a sentence

"M2 are the cutest cuple, aint they?"

TQ

[dinarck]

Dinarck..you are ranting

This is the LOP section and i just pointed to you why Iraq cannot and will not LOP. If you want to know how RV will fix their problem, read up.

How did you point out they cant "LOP". It wouldnt change anything but zeros on their currency. Not only have you not pointed out how they cant "LOP" you still havent pointed out how they can RV.

Dude, there yall go with that poverished people thing agian. Every thing I have been reading indicates that only 1/3rd the pop is poor and the majority of them are not impoverished. Most of the poor live in the outlying areas. Those numbers are not so much poor as they are technically challenged in terms of global wealth. Farmers provide for their families but the majority suffer mostly in terms of medical treatment availability. that 1/3 HAS to be far less than 1/4 in terms of actually poverty stricken people. The term "poor" I see you and Legolas use is not appropriately used. Iraq is NOT NOT NOT the 5th poorest nation as I've seen stated in this section. Serve me up some crow on that....please...but stop saying they are sooo poor until you can back up that notion.

Iraq is around #60 in the world with a GDP of around 127 billion almost all from oil sales and none of which the people see any of. For now.

[zul]

How did you point out they cant "LOP". It wouldnt change anything but zeros on their currency. Not only have you not pointed out how they cant "LOP" you still havent pointed out how they can RV.

I showed you how much dinar Iraq really need, today. And guess what..? It's not a LOP figure of 30 billion or 60 billion dinar