LET'S BREAK IT DOWN...........

[Legolas]

I asked this question in another thread but may have directed it to the wrong audience. If a country closes it's borders, is there any warning before hand? here's my question from the other thread:

I do have one question for anyone who would care to hazard a guess. If they do decide to close their borders, would that mean the mail would not get through either? I would rather donate my currency to a needy Iraqi family than get stuck with it. What do you suppose would happen if they tried to stiff us and a ground swell of pissed off investors dumped their dinar back into their economy via their own citizens? What would that do to their RD plan, if there is one? I would think the CBI has a pretty good idea of how many dinar they could get rid of just by closing their borders.

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Great question, Workerbee. That would make for some happy Iraqi families, and would definitely increase THEIR purchasing power anyway.

But that would probably be a bad PR move for Iraq. I can't really think of a good reason to close the borders in the event of RD. I think there will be an avenue for exchange, but as always, I could be wrong.

[dinarck]

Excellent point, cslewis, and that's the "good news" which has appeared in many of the articles. A redenomination is in fact a value-neutral event, UNLESS they RV at the same time, thus INCREASING the value of the new Dinar. Personally, I think it makes perfect sense to do that, and it's what we have to hope for. The RD would bring the Dinar CLOSE to the value of the USD, but they would have to increase it by about 17% to bring it EQUAL to the Dollar. That's a substantial increase, but it's logical, and I don't know of anything that says they couldn't go further if they wanted to. I'd be "surprised" to see it go higher than that, but it sure would be nice. I don't think there's any particular logic in it having to be the same value as a Dollar. That would increase their purchasing power substantially, provided that "prices" don't rise in unison.

Obviously, we need to hope for the BIGGER increase in order to make up for the spreads. As always, we wait.

LOL. We were typing at the same time, and I agree. INCREASING the value of the Dinar would have the same effect as equaling it. Demand for the Dollar should decrease, and the very fact that a new 1 Dinar note would be equal to or greater in value to the Dollar would undoubtedly increase confidence in their currency.

Yeah I think it only makes sense that they make that jump first. Afterall the whole point of the RD is to gain confidence in the new currency. If it isnt worth the same as the dollar then Iraq runs the risk of the dollarization issue continuing. I think it would be a major advantage for them to bring it to par and we have seen many articles stating that the RD will result in the dinar being equal to the dollar. Of course this was spun into meaning a 100,000% RV but to those of us without a go RV mind the meaning was clear. Think about it. Post RD an Iraqi is holding a dollar bill in one hand and a new 1 dinar note in the other and they are both worth the same. Which do you think the Iraqi would rather use. I doubt it would be the infidel paper. Lol. Those are just my thoughts anyway.

[Frogee]

Keep and I agreed on this....if they do not revalue at the same time as the RD, then they will have to take 000 off everything....food, clothes, cars, mortgages,etc. Can you imagine what a cluster that would be, plus the out right cheating that could go on.

[dvforumuser]

Keep and I agreed on this....if they do not revalue at the same time as the RD, then they will have to take 000 off everything....food, clothes, cars, mortgages,etc. Can you imagine what a cluster that would be, plus the out right cheating that could go on.

I don't understand your point. When they RD, all prices will have to reflect TWO currencies, the old IQD and the new dinar. Those prices will be different by 1000x . THen after a year only the new-dinar prices will be shown. Even if you think they will RV, the prices STILL have to be changed by 1000x or else you would end up paying $5,000 for a loaf of bread that before the RV only cost $5.

[sonny1]

you so obviously and conveniently left out the fact that they are bringing in 30 billion dollars a day in oil revenue. i know you were trying to make your point and that is why you left that out, but considering that oil is all that kuwait has, and there dollar is worth $3.50-$4.00 to 1 usd, its kinda a number that you should of put in there.

if you go 3 mpbd of oil, at $100 (i know thats low) it equals 30 million a day, i then went 30 mil times 365, but the number is so high that my calculator said error. get my point, they truly can rv, and most logically will. good job though leg, but you left out the MOST important part.

i just reread your post, you must of not got the memo about iraq being over 3 million bpd.

oh ya, welcome back, i am glad your back, i always enjoyed your posts, even when i think your way off (like this one. lol) please keep it to a dinar debate, not a morale police state. thanks

i previously had my numbers wrong.......sorry

[Frogee]

I don't understand your point. When they RD, all prices will have to reflect TWO currencies, the old IQD and the new dinar. Those prices will be different by 1000x . THen after a year only the new-dinar prices will be shown. Even if you think they will RV, the prices STILL have to be changed by 1000x or else you would end up paying $5,000 for a loaf of bread that before the RV only cost $5.

No they would not have to have two prices, because the $25000 note is now equal to the$ 25 note. You take the 0's off everything but the new currency which has them removed already. The now $5000 coke costs $5 which is 1/5 of the $25 note and 1/5 of the old $25000 note because it is only worth $25

[frankc]

you so obviously and conveniently left out the fact that they are bringing in 30 billion dollars a day in oil revenue. i know you were trying to make your point and that is why you left that out, but considering that oil is all that kuwait has, and there dollar is worth $3.50-$4.00 to 1 usd, its kinda a number that you should of put in there.

if you go 3 mpbd of oil, at $100 (i know thats low) it equals 30 bil, i then went 30 bil times 365, but the number is so high that my calculator said error. get my point, they truly can rv, and most logically will. good job though leg, but you left out the MOST important part.

i just reread your post, you must of not got the memo about iraq being over 3 million bpd.

I believe 3million times $100 is $300Million dollars per day. Not $30Billion. Roughly equals only $110Billion a year.

[dvforumuser]

you so obviously and conveniently left out the fact that they are bringing in 30 billion dollars a day in oil revenue. i know you were trying to make your point and that is why you left that out, but considering that oil is all that kuwait has, and there dollar is worth $3.50-$4.00 to 1 usd, its kinda a number that you should of put in there.

if you go 3 mpbd of oil, at $100 (i know thats low) it equals 30 bil, i then went 30 bil times 365, but the number is so high that my calculator said error. get my point, they truly can rv, and most logically will. good job though leg, but you left out the MOST important part.

Not sure who this was a response too. Of course Iraq exports oil, but lets get the arithmetic correct first. 3mppd with $100/b profit to the GOI (that exchanges it with the CBI to get dinars to buy things in Iraq). is $300M per day or $2.4B per week * 52 weeks is $124B per year. The Iraq budget for 2012 is $100B USD worth. So most of the oil money (if they can do 3mmpd) is spent to fund the government''s programs. Even if it was not, its only $124B. So if that all went out for exchange at $1:1QD hat would be 124B of IQD. I think w call all easily agree there is at least ONE trillion IQD out in in circulation. So if all Iraq's income were spent on the RV and only 1T IQD is out they could RV to 0.12 . If instead they have to cover 60T and are spending their oil income to build up the country and pay government workers etc, then they can't even RV to 0.01 . Edited March 17, 2012 by dvforumuser

[dinarck]

you so obviously and conveniently left out the fact that they are bringing in 30 billion dollars a day in oil revenue. i know you were trying to make your point and that is why you left that out, but considering that oil is all that kuwait has, and there dollar is worth $3.50-$4.00 to 1 usd, its kinda a number that you should of put in there.

if you go 3 mpbd of oil, at $100 (i know thats low) it equals 30 bil, i then went 30 bil times 365, but the number is so high that my calculator said error. get my point, they truly can rv, and most logically will. good job though leg, but you left out the MOST important part.

i just reread your post, you must of not got the memo about iraq being over 3 million bpd.

Your math is a little off there sonny. It is not my strong area either. 3 million barells a day times 100 dollars a barrel is 300 million dollars a day x 365 I would say is almost 100 billion a year. Not bad but not enough to create 60 trillion worth of fiat currency overnight either. Matter of fact 100 billion is around how much their budget is so that tells us they are at least attempting to spend within their means.

[sonny1]

I believe 3million times $100 is $300Million dollars per day. Not $30Billion. Roughly equals only $110Billion a year.

my bad, i corrected it.

[dinarck]

Not sure who this was a response too. Of course Iraq exports oil, but lets get the arithmetic correct first. 3mppd with $100/b profit to the GOI (that exchanges it with the CBI to get dinars to buy things in Iraq). is $300M per day or $2.4B per week * 52 weeks is $124B per year. The Iraq budget for 2012 is $100B USD worth. So all of the oil money (if they can do 3mmpd) is spent to fund the government''s programs. Even if it was not, its only $124B. So if that all went out for exchange at $1:1QD hat would be 124B of IQD. I think w call all easily agree there is at least ONE trillion IQD out in in circulation. So if all Iraq's income were spent on the RV and only 1T IQD is out they could RV to 0.102 . If instead they have to cover 60T and are spending their oil income to build up the country and pay government workers etc, then they can't even RV to 0.01 .

Hahaha... I think maybe we should flip a coin to decide when to respond. This has happened twice in this thread now. Great minds think alike it seems.

[Legolas]

you so obviously and conveniently left out the fact that they are bringing in 30 billion dollars a day in oil revenue. i know you were trying to make your point and that is why you left that out, but considering that oil is all that kuwait has, and there dollar is worth $3.50-$4.00 to 1 usd, its kinda a number that you should of put in there.

if you go 3 mpbd of oil, at $100 (i know thats low) it equals 30 bil, i then went 30 bil times 365, but the number is so high that my calculator said error. get my point, they truly can rv, and most logically will. good job though leg, but you left out the MOST important part.

i just reread your post, you must of not got the memo about iraq being over 3 million bpd.

oh ya, welcome back, i am glad your back, i always enjoyed your posts, even when i think your way off (like this one. lol) please keep it to a dinar debate, not a morale police state. thanks

Hi Sonny. Thanks again. As frankc indicated above, your math relative to oil income is WAY off. Research shows that Iraq's oil revenue just barely covers their annual budget of $100 Billion Dollars, and it is essentially their ONLY source of income.

Oops. looks like everyone already blasted you for the math.

Edited March 17, 2012 by Legolas

[sonny1]

Not sure who this was a response too. Of course Iraq exports oil, but lets get the arithmetic correct first. 3mppd with $100/b profit to the GOI (that exchanges it with the CBI to get dinars to buy things in Iraq). is $300M per day or $2.4B per week * 52 weeks is $124B per year. The Iraq budget for 2012 is $100B USD worth. So most of the oil money (if they can do 3mmpd) is spent to fund the government''s programs. Even if it was not, its only $124B. So if that all went out for exchange at $1:1QD hat would be 124B of IQD. I think w call all easily agree there is at least ONE trillion IQD out in in circulation. So if all Iraq's income were spent on the RV and only 1T IQD is out they could RV to 0.102 . If instead they have to cover 60T and are spending their oil income to build up the country and pay government workers etc, then they can't even RV to 0.01 .

its good to see that neither one of us can add, 30 mil times 7 equals 210 million per week. which put it will over 10 billion per year, for now, they say 7 mbpd in next 2 years or so, so they can afford an rv, but to be honest they wont pay 1 cent for it.

[jmw]

you so obviously and conveniently left out the fact that they are bringing in 30 billion dollars a day in oil revenue. i know you were trying to make your point and that is why you left that out, but considering that oil is all that kuwait has, and there dollar is worth $3.50-$4.00 to 1 usd, its kinda a number that you should of put in there.

if you go 3 mpbd of oil, at $100 (i know thats low) it equals 30 million a day, i then went 30 mil times 365, but the number is so high that my calculator said error. get my point, they truly can rv, and most logically will. good job though leg, but you left out the MOST important part.

i just reread your post, you must of not got the memo about iraq being over 3 million bpd.

oh ya, welcome back, i am glad your back, i always enjoyed your posts, even when i think your way off (like this one. lol) please keep it to a dinar debate, not a morale police state. thanks

i previously had my numbers wrong.......sorry

Your numbers are off Sonny...it's only 300 million...which would put them at around 100 billion per year..which is what their current GDP is and this makes up about 90% of what they need to run their country...if they used that money to cover a RV the country would go broke....also, check the amount of currency Kuwait has in circulation...Legolas explains it very well and it will show you why Kuwait's currency is worth so much more than Iraq's.

Great to see you back Legolas...DV is a better place because you are here...and thanks to Umberto for leading the charge to get you back....he makes a good diplomat!

Your reasoning is exactly what people need to hear...and hopefully they will take off the "RV today" glasses to see that a 100,000% increase just isn't possible....good to see you my friend!

Edited March 17, 2012 by jmw

[sonny1]

lopsters, i get i made a mistake, and corrected it, thanks for the 9 reminders

[easyrider]

lopsters, i get i made a mistake, and corrected it, thanks for the 9 reminders

damn sonny i felt like you got jumped and in their territory the lopster gang dont worry we got your baack it seems they are rejoicing over their godess Legolas after he has flamed Adam openly on different sites yet here he is haha

Edited March 17, 2012 by easyrider

[moose 57]

lopsters, i get i made a mistake, and corrected it, thanks for the 9 reminders

Reminds me of school ! please keep posting!!!! +1

[sonny1]

damn sonny i felt like you got jumped and in their territory the lopster gang dont worry we got your baack it seems they are rejoicing over their godess Legolas!!!

i do like leg though, we go back years on the dinar sites, though i do think they are azz kissing a little to much.

[dinarck]

lopsters, i get i made a mistake, and corrected it, thanks for the 9 reminders

I think many of us were typing at the same time and didnt realize the multiple responses. Sorry sonny. The last thing this thread needs is to be turned into hurry and point out sonnys mistake thread and I dont think that was our intention. Thanks again for returning Legolas to us. It was the right thing to do.

[sonny1]

I think many of us were typing at the same time and didnt realize the multiple responses. Sorry sonny. The last thing this thread needs is to be turned into hurry and point out sonnys mistake thread and I dont think that was our intention. Thanks again for returning Legolas to us. It was the right thing to do.

i like leg to, though i think he is dead wrong. lol

you make it seem like i returned him, like you lost luggage at the airport, and i am the tsa returning it to your house.

get a room dinarck. lol

[easyrider]

i like leg to, though i think he is dead wrong. lol

you make it seem like i returned him, like you lost luggage at the airport, and i am the tsa returning it to your house.

get a room dinarck. lol

I agree this is getting weirder and weirder as an investment seems they have congregated as some type of cult or something.

Edited March 17, 2012 by easyrider

[jmw]

I agree this is getting weirder and weirder as an investment seems they have congregated as some type of cult or something.

so you are comparing the only people who use logic in this investment as "cultish"...yet the RV groupies who blindly believe they are going to be rich at the "sane" ones...now that is funny.

Edited March 17, 2012 by jmw

[dinarck]

i like leg to, though i think he is dead wrong. lol

you make it seem like i returned him, like you lost luggage at the airport, and i am the tsa returning it to your house.

get a room dinarck. lol

Haha.. Poke fun sonny its all good. I dont care how he got back I am just glad he is here and I dont have any hesitance in saying so. He has EARNED respect with me.

[easyrider]

so you are comparing the only people who use logic in this investment as "cultish"...yet the RV groupies who blindly believe they are going to be rich at the "sane" ones...now that is funny.

Well then behold your Goddess legolas has returned and he shall set you all free from the blasphamy that Adam has created. Give me a break.

[G Zam]

What I don't understand is the US dollars in circulation. According to the Federal Reserve Website its in excess of $ 11 Trillion or ten times the amount originally stated. As last reported.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm

Even that number is disputed by this article written two years ago.

http://www.fgmr.com/us-dollar-money-supply-is-underreported.html

Also the argument presented, only takes into account currency in circulation and does not take into account the assets owned by Iraq. We have a guess of the oil value, but none on the gold or any other mineral or agricultural products. These are important points. Unlike the US, the Iraq government owns and sells the assets of the country.

Just my two cents